Prof. Dr. Ralf ReintjesProf. Dr. Ralf ReintjesHead Emerging Risks UnitHead Emerging Risks Unit

Proactive Identification of Emerging RisksParma, 5.11.2008

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OverviewOverview

• Emerging Risks Identification

• Results from the ESCO

• Activities and Plans of the Emerging Risks Unit

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Mandate of the Emerging Risks UnitMandate of the Emerging Risks Unit(Regulation EC 178/2002, art 34)

sharing

Analyse and filterCollecting and collating

Article 34Identification of emerging risks

1. The Authority shall establish monitoring procedures for systematic searching for, collecting, collating and analysing information and data with a view to the identification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission.

REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCILof 28 January 2002

Laying down the general principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European FoodSafety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety

2. Where the Authority has information leading it to suspect an emerging serious risk, it shall request additional information from the Member States, the Community agencies, and the Commision….

4. The Authority shall forward the evaluation and information collected on emerging risks to the European Parliament, the Commission and the Member States.

Monitoring

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ClassicalClassical researchresearch

NOW

TIME

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EarlyEarly warningwarning

NOW

TIME

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IdentificationIdentification / / ForecastingForecasting ofofEmergingEmerging RisksRisks

NOW

TIME

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MilestonesMilestones

EFSA Adopts Emerging Risk Definition2007

2008 Emerging Risks Unit

ESCO Working Group on Emerging Risks

SC Opinion on Emerging Risks

2006 EMRISK ProjectInfluential sector Indicator Indicative

question Information sources

Signal

Proactive Alert

Action

Scientific experts

Search enginesTimeline

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ESCO WG on Emerging Risks ESCO WG on Emerging Risks (=panel members + experts nominated by MS)(=panel members + experts nominated by MS)

EFSA Executive Director

ESCO Steering Group(chair D. Collins)

WG 1(chair H. Noteborn)

WG 2(chair N. Tomlinson)

Core indicators To propose methodology and procedures for the establishment of a network to exchange key sources of information

Data collection and processing Existing networks

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1. Define and list priority indicators

2. Develop procedures and best practices for data collection and analysis

3. Identify key sources of information

4. Propose methodology and procedures to establish a network to exchange information

5. Review recently completed and ongoing projects and recommend research activities

Mandate of the ESCO WGMandate of the ESCO WG(Adopted by EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007)(Adopted by EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007)

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EMRISK approach scheme and the EMRISK approach scheme and the ESCOESCO

Influential sector Indicator Indicative question Information sources

Signal

Proactive Alert

Action

Scientific experts

Search engines

WG 1(chair H. Noteborn)

WG 2(chair N. Tomlinson)

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DefinitionsDefinitions

The ESCO WG operates under the definitions of

• emerging risk, • indicator, and • signal

adopted by EFSA

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EFSA Definition of Emerging RiskEFSA Definition of Emerging Risk(EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007)

Emerging Risk“An emerging risk to human, animal and/or plant health is understood as a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/orsusceptibility to a known hazard”

New HazardNewNew

Known Hazard

Exposure

Based on “Early detection of facts related to that risk derived either from research, monitoring programs or episodic observations”

Assessment of Emerging Risks

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EFSA Definitions of Indicator and SignalEFSA Definitions of Indicator and Signal

Evidence supporting the identification of an emerging risk should be preferably in the form of an “indicator” and a “signal”

Emerging Risk Identification:

“An indicator is a component of risk assessment, directly or indirectly related to the food chain, that can be measured/calculated qualitatively and/or quantitatively. An ideal indicator should be reliable, sensitive, quantifiable and should provide information on the nature of the hazard and the source of risk”“A signal is a trend of the indicator over time or space”

Indicator and signal:

(EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007)

After Ooms, 2006Time or space

IndicatorOutbreak

Signal

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Management of the WGManagement of the WG

• 23 experts from 16 countries (including USA)

• Since 20079 meetings organized (Parma and Bruxelles)– 2 plenaries – 6 subgroup– 1 steering committee

• Major achievements in the preliminary report (EFSA/EMRISK/047)

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Progress report WG 1Progress report WG 1

• Eleven Indicators in the areas of chemical, microbiological and nutritional hazards

• Examples of signals and sources of information

• Limitations of the indicators, including the problem of relevant complex influential sectors not covered by these indicators

• Overall preliminary approach and evaluation criteria for emerging risks assessment

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Indicators Indicators (see report table 1)

Chemical• New research data indicating toxic properties of substances

in food(Signal: ex. New toxicological data)

• Unexpected detection of a potential toxic agent in food (Signals: ex. analytical results, clusters of non infectious diseases)

• Unexpected evidence of increased exposure of specified populations to particular hazardous chemical/radioactive(Signals: ex. Analytical results, food and feed consumption patterns, biomarkers)

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Indicators Indicators (cont)(cont)

Biological• Emergence of new zoonotic and other foodborne pathogens

(Signals: ex. Outbreak surveillance, clinical diagnostic data, prescriptions)

• Emergence of increased resistance to anti-microbials and plant protection products(Signals: ex. Surveillance, Lab. Data)

• Increased virulence of known pathogens(Signals: ex. Surveillance, Lab. Data)

• Emergence of new or exotic biological agent (Signals: ex. Surveillance, Outbreaks pathogenic to plants)

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Indicators Indicators (cont)(cont)

Susceptibility

• Increased exposure of specified (sub)population to particular hazardous chemical/biological/radioactivecontaminants

• Increased susceptibility of (sub)populations to known contaminants and other hazardous substances

Nutritional• Dietary changes or unbalances caused by modification of food consumption habits

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Discussed approach to data Discussed approach to data collection and processing collection and processing (see Figure 1)(see Figure 1)

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Progress report WG 2Progress report WG 2

• Set objectives and strategies for network collaboration between Emerging Risks Unit and several key partners for a sustainable platform to exchange information (incl. European Commission, Agencies, and other international organizations)

• Questionnaire addressed to Member States with the aim to collectinformation on existing procedures at national level to identifyemerging risks

• Web monitoring systems to implement an observatory system of theearly identification of emerging issues is under evaluation by subgroup-2

• The WG has started to populate a database with research articles and past and ongoing initiatives documents

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Next stepsNext steps

• Recommendations and roadmap for the Emerging Risks unit

• Questionnaire to be submitted to MS

• Finalize the conceptual model for data collection and exchange

• Scientific Colloquium in 2009

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ResearchResearchpubmed, embase, conferences, DG

research…

MediaMediaEMM,

GPHN..

ReportsReportsrasff, ms,

ecdc..

Food import and Food import and data productiondata production(exposure assessment)

Emerging risks identification systemEmerging risks identification system

Early Early Warning Warning System System

CommitteeCommittee

ERIS

Proactive alertProactive alert

Data analysis of Data analysis of indicatorsindicators

(risk assessment)

Stakeholders Stakeholders (industry….)

= filter= filter

ExpertsExperts

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Rapid Alert System for Food and Rapid Alert System for Food and FeedFeed (RASFF)

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Time series analysisTime series analysis

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Tools: Tools: Media monitoring: EMM by JRCMedia monitoring: EMM by JRC

EMM is a system for media news aggregation and analysis

Emerging Risk Unit and JRC:

1) Refining the search strategy and keywords2) Extending the searchable database3) Pilot phase of an alert system with a newsletter4) “Validation” of the system

Gathered

Filtered and classified

Presented and visualized

Analyzed for trend detection

Alerts

The information is:

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Commission Working Group Commission Working Group on Emerging Riskson Emerging Risks

• Establish a Europe-wide global network system for exchanging information to screen new hazards.

• Developing a cooperative approach (a common model) to address emerging risks in different sectors respecting the independence and autonomy of each organization.

Indicators, sources, networking, methodology

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Future outputsFuture outputs

• RASFF mapping tool• Import surveillance• Alert IT tool• Up-to-date information

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Not everthing that can be countedcounts, and not everything that counts

can be counted!

Albert Einstein