Pro active advisory, Monsoon 2016 – review of crop prospects

Season/Trade Crop Segment Indian Crop size in World % Rank Crop Prospects Implications on Crops Kharif Summer Crops (Rain Fed) Grains Cereals Corn 3% 7 Corn acreage for 2016/17 is close to 8.2 million hectares and is expected to be large crop season. At present, corn crop is at cob formation. Overall, nearly 75 percent Indian crop is in good condition. Pulses 50-60% 1 Indian Pulses acreage has increased by 35 percent in 2016 compared to previous year because of prevailing high prices and anticipated good monsoon. However, production is expected to be around 22 million metric tons against the consumption of 24 million tons. Spices Black Pepper 18% 2 Scanty shower in parts of south India, mainly Kerala, during September is expected to reduce the black pepper output. Production will be less than 55,000 tons this harvest. Chili 35% 2 Chilli acreage increased by 25-30 percent this year because of the increase in price in 2015. China, which is one of the leading importers of chilies from India, increased domestic production of Chilli. This will lead to sluggish export demand. Turmeric 72% 1 Better rainfall in key producing regions along with the increase in acreage is likely to impact the crop prospects positively. Cardamom 32% 2 Lack of rainfall in Kerala during August and September is expected to reduce the cardamom production nearly by 50 percent from last year estimates. Softs Sugar 19% 2 Production in India is expected to decrease significantly due to last year’s drought. Cotton 21% 2 Cotton acreage will decrease in 2016/17 due to drought and severe crop damage during 2015/16, however, increase in yield by 9% will result in moderate production this season. Others Guar Seed 80% 1 Guar seed acreage in India dropped to 20 - 25 lakh hectares from 48 lakh hectares, as farmers shifted to more profitable crops due to good monsoon this year. Mentha Oil 82% 1 Mentha oil is expected to witness higher production this year due to better monsoon. Drop in demand from China and Japan will decrease the Mentha oil price in India. 2016 Wheat production is expected to reduce to 722 million metric tons against 736 million metric tons Alarm Good Poor

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Transcript of Pro active advisory, Monsoon 2016 – review of crop prospects

Page 1: Pro active advisory, Monsoon 2016 – review of crop prospects

Season/Trade Crop Segment Indian Crop size in World % Rank Crop Prospects Implications on Crops

KharifSummer Crops

(Rain Fed)

Grains Cereals

Corn 3% 7 Corn acreage for 2016/17 is close to 8.2 million hectares and is expected to be large crop season. At present, corn crop is at cob formation. Overall, nearly 75 percent Indian crop is in good condition.

Pulses 50-60% 1Indian Pulses acreage has increased by 35 percent in 2016 compared to previous year because of prevailing high prices and anticipated good monsoon. However, production is expected to be around 22 million metric tons against the consumption of 24 million tons.

Spices

Black Pepper 18% 2 Scanty shower in parts of south India, mainly Kerala, during September is expected to reduce the black pepper output. Production will be less than 55,000 tons this harvest.

Chili 35% 2 Chilli acreage increased by 25-30 percent this year because of the increase in price in 2015. China, which is one of the leading importers of chilies from India, increased domestic production of Chilli. This will lead to sluggish export demand.

Turmeric 72% 1 Better rainfall in key producing regions along with the increase in acreage is likely to impact the crop prospects positively.

Cardamom 32% 2 Lack of rainfall in Kerala during August and September is expected to reduce the cardamom production nearly by 50 percent from last year estimates.

Softs

Sugar 19% 2 Production in India is expected to decrease significantly due to last year’s drought.

Cotton 21% 2 Cotton acreage will decrease in 2016/17 due to drought and severe crop damage during 2015/16, however, increase in yield by 9% will result in moderate production this season.

Others

Guar Seed 80% 1 Guar seed acreage in India dropped to 20 - 25 lakh hectares from 48 lakh hectares, as farmers shifted to more profitable crops due to good monsoon this year.

Mentha Oil 82% 1 Mentha oil is expected to witness higher production this year due to better monsoon. Drop in demand from China and Japan will decrease the Mentha oil price in India.

Rabi Winter Crops

(Irrigated)

GrainsWheat 12% 3

2016 Wheat production is expected to reduce to 722 million metric tons against 736 million metric tons previous year. However, 2016 Rabi crop harvest in June was good due to high yield.

Rice 21% 2 Normal monsoon in India has boosted the outlook for 2016/17 season.

Spices Chili 9% 2 Normal production can be witnessed due to favorable conditions

AlarmGood Poor