Priyesh Erode Seminar

8/3/2019 Priyesh Erode Seminar

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India started Five Year Plans as a strategy forrapid economic development, ensuring social

justice and food security.

India·s five year plan programme is one of

the biggest state intervention programmes inthe world.



First effort in the 1950s to go in the socialist

path was fascinated by the USSR model andit took three decades to realise that we were

on the wrong path and the second effort to

direct Indian economy in the market led path was also due to internal fiscal crisis and crisis

in the balance of payments (BOPs) and

serious economic and political compulsion

and to some extent threat from the western

multilateral lending agencies and the USA.



Plan Outlay of Various Five Year PlansPlan Period Amount (Crore) Percentage

increase over

previous Plan

First Plan 1951-1956 1,960 NA

Second Plan 1956-1961 4,672 138

Third Plan 1961-1966 8,577 84Fourth Plan 1969-1974 16,160 88

Fifth Plan 1974-1979 39,303 143

Sixth Plan 1980-1985 97,500 148

Seventh Plan 1985-1990 1,80,000 84

Eighth Plan 1992-1997 4,34,100 141

Ninth Plan 1997-2002 9,41,041 117

Tenth Plan 2002-2007 16,53,065 76

Eleventh Plan 2007-2012 36,44,718 121

Twelfth Plan 2012-2017 91,60,248 151



After Spending Crores of Rupees where are we

now?

HDI value is 127,

The HPI estimates 15.5 % of population not

expected to survive to age 40 due to severe

deprivation, and 46 % of children aged under five

are underweight for their age.

The GHI(2009) puts India at 65th position among the84 countries that face moderate to extreme hunger

situation



Continues. IMR (per 1000) 54/1000

Number of people living below poverty line ishighest in the world

A nation with very low per capita income

A nation still with low adult literacy rate and high

gender gap in literacy Children reaching Grade 5 (% in Grade 1) is 59 %

Only 28 % population with access to sanitation

Nearly 50 % in urban areas live in slums

High and ever widening regional inequality

A nation with largest amount of deposit in secretbanks ranging from $500 billion (Rs.25 lakhs crore) to$1400 billion (Rs.70 lakh crore).



The Pre-British India

The city of Beejanagar (Hampi) is such that thepupil of the eye has never seen a place like it andthe ear of intelligence has never been informedthat there existed anything to equal it in theworld

Abdul Razak, Persian Ambasador to Hampi in1443 AD.

For many travellers and writers, India became anattractive destination and for conquerors, Indiabecame a target point.



SMD

Rise and fall of EconomiesRegionRegion 18201820 18701870 19131913 19501950 19731973 19901990 19981998

Western Europe Western Europe 23.623.6 33.633.6 33.533.5 26.326.3 25.725.7 22.322.3 20.620.6

US, Australia, N. Zealand,US, Australia, N. Zealand,

CanadaCanada1.91.9 10.210.2 21.721.7 30.630.6 25.325.3 24.324.3 25.125.1

Japan Japan 3.03.0 2.32.3 2.62.6 3.03.0 7.77.7 8.68.6 7.77.7

Asia (excluding Japan) Asia (excluding Japan) 56.256.2 36.036.0 21.921.9 15.515.5 16.416.4 23.323.3 29.529.5

Latin America/CaribbeanLatin America/Caribbean 2.02.0 2.52.5 4.54.5 7.97.9 8.78.7 8.38.3 8.78.7

E. Europe and former USSRE. Europe and former USSR 8.88.8 11.711.7 13.113.1 13.013.0 12.912.9 9.89.8 5.35.3

Africa Africa 4.54.5 3.63.6 2.72.7 3.63.6 3.33.3 3.23.2 3.13.1

Total Total 100%100% 100%100% 100%100% 100%100% 100%100% 100%100% 100%100%



SMD

India during 2,000 years

Source: Angus Maddison. 2001. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. OECD,

Paris

Share of Global GDP (%): Year 0-1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

1 6 0 0

1 7 0 0

1 8 2 0

1 8 7 0

1 9 1 3

1 9 5 0

1 9 7 3

1 9 9 8

Western Europe

United States

Japan

China

India



The Pre-British India..

In the year 1830, Indias share of world manufacturedgoods was 19 % as against Britains 9 %.Today Indiasshare is 1.8 %

Likewise in the same year Indias share of world trade

was 18 % and that of Britains 8%. Now Indias share isless than 1 %.

According to a British review dated 1803, theproductivity of wheat in Allahabad-Varanasi region was2-3 times greater than in England

All 400 districts of India produced cloth on a large scale.Even around 1810 many districts in south India had10000 to 20000 looms.



Present Macro Economic Situation

GDP growth rate 7.7 %

Industrial growth rate 5.6 % ( Aug,2011)

Inflation 9.72 % (Sept,2011)

Current account deficit 3 % of GDP

Indias External Debt $ 317 billion

Fiscal Deficit 4.6 %

Foreign Exchange Reserves $318 billion Agricultural Growth Rate 2.7 per cent



India in Agriculture

India World % Share Rank

Total Area

(Million

Hectares)

329 13442 2.4 Seventh

Land Area(Million

Hectares)

297 13009 2.3 Seventh

Arable Land

(Million

Hectares)

159 1411 11.2 Second



Present Agricultural Situation of India(1990-2000

Prices)

State (1999-00 to 07-08) Agri.Growth rate SDP Growth Rate

Gujarat 10.38 9.21

Chhattisgarh 4.70 8.08

Andhra Pradesh 3.99 6.74

Assam 0.52 5.01

Bihar 2.12 6.74

Haryana 2.54 8.48

Karnataka -1.15 5.47

Kerala 2.26 7.62

Madhya Pradesh 2.68 3.40

Maharashtra 3.98 6.83

Punjab 1.96 4.39

Tamil Nadu 0.54 5.85

Uttar Pradesh 1.12 4.32

West Bengal 1.96 6.09



Total Foograin - India

Year Area (000 Ha) Production

(000 Tonnes)

Yield (Kg/Ha) Per Capita

Avail.

1950-51 97,320 50,820 522 140

1960-61 115,580 82,020 710 177

1970-71 124,316 108,422 872 185

1980-81 126667 129,589 1023 162

1990-91 127834 176,390 1380 205

2000-01 121050 196,810 1626 207

2005-06 120080 198,360 1703 197

2008-09 122,832 234,432 1909 186



Total Oil Seeds - India

Year Area

(000ha.)

Production

(000tonnes)

Yield

1970-71 16,569 8,617 520

1980-81 17,826 10,063 565

1990-91 24,278 18,041 743

2000-01 23,429 19,950 802

2005-06 27,123 25,566 9432009-10 26,113 24,912 955



T

r e n d i n P e

r C a p i t a F o o d P r o d u

c t i o n-

146

160

172

175

172

165

170

172

182

182

181

176

177

167

160

160

170

183

187

189

184

177

170

180

179

189

191

186

183

180

186

193

194

199

191

185

189

197

207

202

201

201

208

201

202

1 2 0

1 4 0

1 6 0

1 8 0

2 0 0

2 2 0

1951-52

1952-53

1953-54

1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60

1960-61

1961-62

1962-63

1963-64

1964-65

1965-66

1966-67

1967-68

1968-69

1969-70

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

1975-76

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

Per capita Food Production

Y e a

r s

P er c a pi t aF o o d P r o d u c t i on



T r e n d i n

F o o d P r o d

u c t i o n- T a m

i l N a d u

0 2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

1 4 0

1 6 0

1 8 0

1970-71

1972-73

1974-75

1976-77

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

P er c a pi t aF o o d P d nT ami l N a d u



T r e n d i n F o o d P r o d u c t i o n

- K e r a

0 1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

1970-71

1972-73

1974-75

1976-77

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000 01

P er c a pi t aP d nK

er al a



T r e

n d i n F o o

d P r o d u c t i o n- A n d

h r a P

0 5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

1970-71

1972-73

1974-75

1976-77

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

P er c a pi t aF o o d A n d h r aP r a d e s h



T r e n d i n

F o o d P r o d u c t i o n

- P u n

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 , 0 0 0

1 ,2 0 0

1970-71

1972-73

1974-75

1976-77

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

P er c a pi t aF o o d

P d n



T r e n d i n

F o o d P r o d u c t i o n- H

a r y a n

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

1975-76

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

P er i o d

P er c a pi t af o o d

P d n



T r e n d i n

F o o d P r o d u c t i o n- G u j a

0 2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

1 4 0

1 6 0

1 8 0

1970-71

1972-73

1974-75

1976-77

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

P er c a pi t af o o d p d n



Food Production-Tamil Nadu

Year Area (000Ha.) Production

(000Tonnes)

Yield (Kg/Ha) Per Head

Aval.(Kg/Head)

1970-71 5,196 6,974 1,342 169

1980-81 4,247 5,580 1,314 115

1990-91 4,007 8,245 2,058 133

1994-95 3,853 9,088 2,358 156

2008-09 3,170 8,263 2,607 127



Total Oilseeds Tamil Nadu

Year Area (000Ha.) Production

(oooTonnes)

Yield (Kg/Ha.)

1970-71 1,207 1,024 848

1981-82 1,188 1,296 838

1990-00 923 1,415 1,082

2006-07 590 1,080 1,831



A r

e a U n d e

r F o o d g r a i n s i n T

a m i l

0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

3 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

5 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

1975-76

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

Ar e a

Un

d er F o o d gr ai n

s ( 0 0 0 ¶



N e t S o w n A r e a i n T a m

i l N a

0

1 , 0 0 0

2 , 0 0 0

3 , 0 0 0

4 , 0 0 0

5 , 0 0 0

6 , 0 0 0

7 , 0 0 0

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

N e t S ow

nA r e a ( 0 0 0

¶ H a )



12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017) Targets

Sl.No Sectors of Economy Targetd Growth in Per

cent1 Agri. Forestry & Mining 4.0 %

2 Mining & Quarring 8.0 %

3 Manufacturing 9.8 %

4 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 8.5 %

5 Construction 10 %

5 Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication &

Storage

11%

6 Financing,Insurance,Real estate & business

services

10 %

7 Community, Social & Personal Services 8 %

8 Total GDP 9 %

9 Industry 9.6 %

10 Services 10 %



GDP Estimates for the 12th Plan

Year GDP (Rs. In Crores-

Current Price)

2012-13 1,02,83,085

2013-14 1,17,74,132

2014-15 1,34,81,381

2015-16 1,54,36,181

2016-17 1,76,74,428



Aggregate Resource outlay for the 12th

Plan

R eceipts R s. in Crores

Tax Revenue Net to Centre 59,55,718

Non-Tax Revenue 6,94,678

Non-Debt Capital Receipts 2,78,391

Fiscal Deficit 22,31,461

Total 91,60,248



Major Highlights of the 12th Plan

The draft approach paper titled Faster, sustainableand More Inclusive growth aims to universalize

secondary education by 2017.

The approach paper gives emphasis to 13 Flagship

programmes started in the 11th Plan and previousplan periods.

The 12th Plan will use sports as an important strategy

for the holistic development of youth

It states to re-examine the current not-for-profit

prescription in education mainly professional

education



The Major Highlights«..

Nothing has been said to improve the quality of state

universities and 50 % vacant faculty positions inuniversities

In energy generation, transmission and distribution, thedraft proposes to encourage more intensiveprivatization and co-operation of states

Encouraging PPP model in road and air portconstruction for the North-East and Left wing extremism affected districts.

The draft recommends the establishment of anIndependent Tariff Regulation Commission for theRailway to fix tariffs in order to depoliticize the tariff setting process.



The major Highlights

It states reforms in implementation of plan schemesand states the need for more flexibility in the design of

the schemes to reflect the ground realities across theStates.

It states that the energy prices cannot be delinked fromglobal price levels, particularly in a situation where

import dependence is increasing. It states the establishment of an effective Lokpal.

To extend the green revolution to the Eastern Region.

There is need to permit leasing of land where smallfarmers, who would otherwise be unviable, are able tolease out their lands to others. This is to encouragecorporate farming




Ensuring delivery of safe drugs to people. The Tamil Nadu

Medical Services Corporation (TNMSC) provides a tested

model for procurement and distribution to achieveeconomies of scale and use of monopsony power for

procuring drugs at substantially marked down prices.

Only 193 districts of a total of 640 have a medical college ²

the remaining 447 districts do not have any medicalcolleges.

State the establishment of National Commission on

Higher Education and Research (NCHER) to ensure

autonomy of institutions and enhancement of

standards and provision for entry of foreign education

providers




It states the ´Look East Policyµ should lead to develop

road connectivity to Thailand, Myanmar and

Bangladesh. Such initiatives are imperative for

developing border trade and economic activity in the

region.

It states the need for an extended ¶4P· framework³ PeoplePrivatePublic Partnerships for developing

urban infrastructure.

It states to increase R&D expenditure to 2 % of GDP

from the present 0.9 % by the end of the Twelfth Plan. For the development of tourism, it lacks ideas and only

states the importance of national tourism policy.




Improvement in governance in all the dimensions mustbe made a central focus of the Twelfth Plan

A regulatory body for building and construction at thenational level like the one proposed in Kerala has notbeen suggested

NinC is encouraging the States to set up State

Innovation Councils to stimulate the environment forinnovation in their states. The national Innovationagenda will combine with other thrusts forimprovement of governance and service delivery to

introduce more flexibility and innovation in centrally sponsored schemes and thus improve the efficiency andinclusiveness of the growth process.



Criticism

The draft proposal keeps a deep silence about the issueof bringing back the secret deposits made by Indian

politicians,bureacrats,industrialists etc in various taxhavens.

It is nothing but a wish list

It significantly mentions the need to devise a new

system that can overcome the difficulties experienced with regard to the implementation of the SpecialComponent Plan for Scheduled Castes (SCP) and the Tribal Sub-Plan (TSP). But it does not specify the

proposed new system. It is pro-inflationary and the targets are beyond the

capacity of the present state of Indian economy.



Criticism

There is almost 60 % outflow of FDI from India (0.6).

FDI outflow is the result of Indian firms investing

abroad. Nothing has been mentioned to arrest this

trend in the draft proposal.

Through out the draft proposal, the Planning

Commission is expressing its concern about thenegative economic developments at the international

level. But nothing has been mentioned how to mitigate

its impact on Indian economy if the situation becomes

very severe.

Priyesh Erode Seminar

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