CHICAGO MAP - prism-magazine.org · c46 > february 2006 prism > c47
PRISM Update
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Transcript of PRISM Update
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PRISM Update
Christopher DalyDirector, PRISM Climate Group
Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and EngineeringCollege of Engineering
Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
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Topics
• 1981-2010 Normals
• USDA Risk Management Agency Project
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PRECIPITATIONAll Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east)
1971-2000: 13,648 Stations
West East
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PRECIPITATIONAll Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east)
1981-2010: 19,817 Stations
West East
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PRECIPITATIONAll Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east)
1981-2010: 20,188 Stations
EC1899
SFWMD438
OK MESONET108 COOP
11,613
NDSWC759
MNHIDEN490
ICN14COCORAHS
736
SNOWCOURSE510
HDSC434
CDEC608
SNOTEL711
RAWS 42
AGRIMET66 WBAN
988
West East
Temperature1971-2000: ~11,7001981-2010: ~16,700
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1971-2000 Mean Annual Precipitation
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1981-2010 Mean Annual Precipitation
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1971-2000 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature
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1981-2010 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature
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1971-2000 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature
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1981-2010 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature
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Federal Crop Insurance Basics
• Federal crop insurance program covers about $110 billion in crop value
~80% participation nationwide for major crops
• Sold and delivered by 16 private insurance companies
• USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) oversees and re-insures
• Largest number of insurance claims are for drought, excessive moisture, heat, cold, and hail – WEATHER
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Typical Cause-of-Loss Language
• “Crop could not be planted due to excessively wet conditions”
• “Harvest was delayed and crop quality was reduced due to cold and wet weather”
• “Crop was damaged due to unusually hot weather”
How do claims managers evaluate whether it was too wet, too dry, too cold or too hot?
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PRISM Support for Crop InsuranceCompliance
• Provide high-quality weather and climate maps to expedite claims
– Did the claimed damaging event occur?
• Short time scale: Daily and monthly PRISM maps over the lower 48 states in near real time
– Was the event unusual enough to warrant payment?
• Long time scale: Climatic context for the event
– Make the assessment process quick and easy
• Web-based tools
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PRISM/RMA Weather & Climate Portal• New portal being
developed for RMA– Provides fast access to
quality climate data– Incorporates usability
engineering so it’s easier to use and produces info relevant to RMA needs
• Initial prototype focuses on 4 key ways users need to find and apply weather&climate data
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Recent Conditions
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Recent Conditions
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Summary Assessment: Tallahassee, FL, June 2012
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Classification Scheme – 30 Years
90-100th123456789
101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
UnusuallyWet
Wet
Typical
Dry
UnusuallyDry
123456789
101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
70-90th
30-70th
10-30th
0-10th
UnusuallyWarm
Warm
Typical
Cool
UnusuallyCool
PrecipitationPrecipitation TemperatureTemperaturePercentile Range
Rank Rank
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View Details
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Detailed Data: Ft. Collins, CO
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Task 4: Generate Customized Report
• Select a 16-month "insurance period" and location
• Get an on-demand prevented planting report
• Future plans– Other types of reports
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Customized Report• Report style based on
manually-created versions that were used successfully in court cases
• Generates usable English-language text
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Customized Report:Interactive Tables and Graphs
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Customized Report:Maps of Cumulative
Precipitation Compared to
Normal
16-month 12-month
6-month 3-month
1-month
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Customized Report:Summary Section
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How Can Growers Participate in the Weather and Climate Assessment Process?
• Growers live and breath the weather!
• Many take their own precipitation measurements
• We cannot accept these measurements because of unknown methods and equipment
• But there is now a way for them to participate…
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Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network
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Next Steps for the Portal
• Coming next week:
– 1981-2010 monthly normals
– Daily precipitation
• Coming this fall:
– Daily normals
– Radar-enhanced precipitation
• Public access? Still unsure, probably a year out