Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org 1

Priorities and proposed interventions in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) March 23, 2017

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org 2

The NDCs are national the pledges/plan/actions countries intend to take to

address climate change – both in terms of adaptation and mitigation. (Art. 4)

What is (i)NDCs

Global Goals (Art.2)

Mitigation: [<2c, effort to limit 1.5] [LEDs by 2020]

Adaptation: [Enhance capacity] [Strengthen resilience]

Finance: [USD $100B by 2020] [More resources by developing parties]

Global Actions/Procedures

Transparency of action and support (Art. 13)

Global stocktake and increasing ambition (Art. 14)

Compliance, meetings, entry into force (Art. 15-21)

National Action

Successive NDCs. (progression/ambition) (Art 3 & 4.3)

Non Party Stakeholder Actions

Private Sector, Cities (Art 7 & 11)

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org 3

From INDC to NDC • 187 out of 196 Parties communicated INDCs till ratification

• Cover the areas of mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology,

capacity-building and transparency.

• Developing countries & LDC have focused more on adaptation then

mitigation

• Communicated INDC has become the first NDC, unless Party decided

otherwise

• Review of the NDCs every 5 years as part of a global stocktake and have to represent a progression over time (Art.4.9)

• Facilitated dialogue in 2018 & global stocktake in 2023 (Art.4.1)

• By 2020, parties with 2025 require to submit new NDCs, NDCs with

2030 timeframe will be updated

• Current NDCs lead to effect of 2.7C –3.7C increase by 2100

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org 4

• 100% included mitigation while 83% have adaptation component

• Diverse mitigation targeting: Absolute (32%), BAU (45%), Intensity of GDP

(4%), Peaking (2%), policy & actions (20%), others (1%)

• Most of the developing and LDCs included conditional target subject to the

availability of international assistance

• The major mitigation sectors included energy (99%), waste (75%), Agriculture

(74%), Land use, land use and forestry (73%) Industrial process (65%)

• About 2/3 of NDCs show clear references to climate action in urban context

• Asian NDCs indicated water (38), agriculture (32), health (27), forestry (24)

and ecosystem (20) as top 5 priority sectors

• Not many countries provided exact financial needs, USD 100 million to over

200 billion for the whole INDC period and from USD 10 million to 3 billion per

year

• NDCs that are submitted recently made reference to SDGs

What is inside NDCs

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org 5

ICLEI (2016). The Paris Climate Package: A Basic Guide for Local and Subnational

Governments. http://e-lib.iclei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/COP21-

Report-web.pdf

UNFCC (2015). The Paris Agreement.

http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php

UNFCC (2016). Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of intended nationally

determined contributions.

http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/9240.php

UNHABITA (2016). Sustainable Urbanization in the Paris Agreement.

https://unhabitat.org/books/sustainable-urbanization-in-the-paris-

agreement/

Sources on NDCs

Moving from strategies to bankable investment projects

For project

prioritisation &

programming

TOOLKIT

CDIA: Linking Cities to Financing

Private

Institutional

Investors

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECT CYCLE

Infrastructure

Investment

Prioritization

Project

Preparation

Studies

Linking projects to

financing

City Development

Plan/Strategy

Project

Implementation

Financing

Arrangements

Feasibility Study

Operation &

Maintenance

• City Infrastructure Investment Programming and Prioritization (CIIPP)

Down-stream Up-stream

• IFIs, e.g. ADB, KfW, WB

• LFIs, e.g. China Development

Bank, city

• PSP, e.g. PPP

• Commercial borrowing

TODAY’S PRESENTATION

WHY THIS TOOLKIT

THE DETAILS

WHY THIS TOOLKIT

ASIA’S URBAN CHALLENGES

FLOODING

TRANSPORT

WASTE

POLLUTION TRAFFIC

MIGRATION SLUMS CONGESTION

OVER

CROWDING

INFRASTRUCTURE SOLUTIONS

SOLID WASTE

MANAGEMENT

AIRPORT BRIDGE

ROAD

NETWORK

WATER

SUPPLY

MASS RAPID

TRANSPORT WATER TRANSPORT

URBAN

REGENERATION

POWER

SUPPLY

INDUSTRIAL

PARK

SETTING PRIORITIES

SOLID WASTE

MANAGEMENT

AIRPORT BRIDGE

ROAD

NETWORK

WATER

SUPPLY

MASS RAPID

TRANSPORT WATER TRANSPORT

URBAN

REGENERATION

POWER

SUPPLY

INDUSTRIAL

PARK

CHANGING PRIORITIES

PRIORITISATION OF

PROJECTS IS THE MOST

DIFFICULT AND POLITICALLY

SENSITIVE PART OF ANY

PLANNING AND

PROGRAMMING EXERCISE

FROM WISHLIST TO SHORTLIST

An

aly

sis

Fin

an

cia

l C

ap

aci

ty

1

Pro

ject

Pri

ori

tisa

tio

n 2

Investment

Programming

3

THE FINAL RESULT IS A PRIORITY INVESTMENT PACKAGE (PIP)

THE DETAILS

TOOLKIT DESIGN

EXCEL WORKBOOK

MANUAL

TOOLKIT DESIGN

THE TOOLKIT IS NOT…………

We use the toolkit when…………

3 STEP APPROACH

SHORTLIST

PRIORITY

PROJECTS

WISH LIST

POTENTIAL

PROJECTS

RESULT:

ALTERNATIVE

INVESTMENT

PACKAGES

STARTING POINT:

LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

BUDGET

STRATEGIC

INVESTMENT

BUDGET

STEP 1:

ANALYSIS FINANCIAL

CAPACITY

OR OR

LOANS &

ALTERNATIVE

FINANCING SOURCES

STEP 3:

INVESTMENT

PROGRAMMING

STEP 2:

PROJECT

PRIORITSATION

SHORTLIST

PRIORITY

PROJECTS

WISH LIST

POTENTIAL

PROJECTS

RESULT:

ALTERNATIVE

INVESTMENT

PACKAGES

STARTING POINT:

LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

BUDGET

OR OR

STRATEGIC

INVESTMENT

BUDGET

LOANS &

ALTERNATIVE

FINANCING SOURCES

STEP 1:

ANALYSIS FINANCIAL

CAPACITY

STEP 3:

INVESTMENT

PROGRAMMING

STEP 2:

PROJECT

PRIORITSATION

STEP 1:

ANALYSE

FINANCIAL

CAPACITY

STEP 1 ■ FINANCIAL CAPACITY ANALYSIS

STEP 1 ■ FINANCIAL CAPACITY ANALYSIS

BORROWING ONE S FUTURE INCOME TO INCREASE PURCHASING POWER OF ONE S PRESENT

This part is to gain more insight in the

creditworthiness of the local government. It

consists of a series of quantitative data that gives

an overview of the fiscal space of the local

government and the capacity to leverage finance.

1. FISCAL

ASSESSMENT

This part is a qualitative assessment of the

financial management structure that is in place

to manage substantive capital investments within

the city administration.

2. FINANCIAL

SYSTEM

ASSESSMENT

This part is a projection of revenues and

expenditures and the available funds for

investment using a basic and simple projection

model

3. INVESTMENT

BUDGETING

SHORTLIST

PRIORITY

PROJECTS

WISH LIST

POTENTIAL

PROJECTS

RESULT:

ALTERNATIVE

INVESTMENT

PACKAGES

STARTING POINT:

LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

BUDGET

OR OR

STRATEGIC

INVESTMENT

BUDGET

LOANS &

ALTERNATIVE

FINANCING SOURCES

STEP 1:

ANALYSIS FINANCIAL

CAPACITY

STEP 3:

INVESTMENT

PROGRAMMING

STEP 2:

PROJECT

PRIORITSATION

STEP 2:

PROJECT

PRIORITISATION

STEP 2 ■ PROJECT PRIORITISATION

STEP 2 ■ PROJECT PRIORITISATION

THE SCENARIOS

STEP 2 ■ PROJECT PRIORITISATION

SHORTLIST

PRIORITY

PROJECTS

WISH LIST

POTENTIAL

PROJECTS

RESULT:

ALTERNATIVE

INVESTMENT

PACKAGES

STARTING POINT:

LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

BUDGET

OR OR

STRATEGIC

INVESTMENT

BUDGET

LOANS &

ALTERNATIVE

FINANCING SOURCES

STEP 1:

ANALYSIS FINANCIAL

CAPACITY

STEP 3:

INVESTMENT

PROGRAMMING

STEP 2:

PROJECT

PRIORITSATION

STEP 3 ■ PROGRAMMING FOR INVESTMENT

STEP 3:

PROGRAMMING

FOR

INVESTMENT

STEP 3 ■ PROGRAMMING FOR INVESTMENT

GRAPH 1: CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIRED VERSUS

EXPENDITURE LIMIT

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Capital Investment (own source)

Existing Expenditures

Expenditure Ceiling

GRAPH 2: LOANS REQUIRED VERSUS

DEBT SERVICE CAPACITY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New Loans: Annual Debt Service

Existing Annual Debt Service

Estimated Max Debt Service

STEP 3 ■ PROGRAMMING FOR INVESTMENT

5 YEAR PLAN - FINAL PROJECTS

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TOTAL TOTAL (USD)

Total Committed Capital Investment 20,0 11,6 39,6 105,0 99,6 326 4,0

Total Capital Investment (own source) 10 16 44 32 25 127 0,0

State or Regional Funds & Grants 0 20 20 30 20 90 0,0

Private Sector Investment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Commercial Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Preferential Borrowing 10 10 10 10 10 50 12,5

Financing Gap 0 -34 -34 33 45 9 0,0

Expenditure Ceiling 737 786 839 895 941

Existing Expenditures 636 682 731 786 831

Estimated Financing Capacity 51 52 54 55 55

Existing Annual Debt Service 20 19 20 21 20

New Loans: Annual Debt Service 10 10 10 10 10 50 1

Estimated Max Debt Service 25 26 27 27 28

FUNDS AVAILABLE AFTER FINAL INVESTMENTS 41 36 10 23 30 140 1,7

Teku SW Transfer Station 0 6 6 0 0 12 0,1

Own source 0 6 6 0 0 12 0,0

State or Regional Funds & Grants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Private Sector Investment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Commercial Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Preferential Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Financing Gap 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Annual Debt Service New Loans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

New Balaju South Transfer Station 0 0 28 22 15 65 0,8

Own source 0 0 28 22 15 65 0,8

State or Regional Funds & Grants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Private Sector Investment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Commercial Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Preferential Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Financing Gap 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Annual Debt Service New Loans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Junction Improvement Project 20 16 16 93 95 239 3,0

Own source 10 10 10 10 10 50 0,6

State or Regional Funds & Grants 0 20 20 30 20 90 1,1

Private Sector Investment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Commercial Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0

Preferential Borrowing 10 10 10 10 10 50 0,6

Financing Gap 0 -34 -34 33 45 9 0,1

Annual Debt Service New Loans 10 10 10 10 10 50 0,6

NPR in millions

HAVE FUN!