Prior Signals of Corrections in US Stock Market (S&P 500) and Where We Stand. June 2015.
10
LVX Research – Prior Signals of Corrections in US Stock Markets and Where We Currently Stand – June 2015 1 copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.com Paid Third Party Research Provider on Asian/Australian Stocks. Focused on Researching: What Historical Factors/Metrics Consistently Drive Stock and Industry Segment Out Performance ? What Fundamental Investment Strategies Are Working Consistently? Growth Vs Value, Contrarian Vs Momentum, Seasonal factors, Anomalies? – Please read disclaimers on our website. www.lvxresearch.co m
-
Upload
lvxresearch -
Category
Documents
-
view
5 -
download
0
description
Presentation of past S&P 500 market downturns and what economic and market signals seem to have been accurate in providing and early warning in the past. Limited history of analysis should be borne in mind.What Drives Company Stock Price Out Performance? What Fundamental Stock Investment Strategies Have Been Working Consistently? What Ranked Metrics Have Historically Signalled Stock Prices Will Outperform?Our Paid Monthly Research Service on the Australian (ASX) and Hong Kong Markets (HSE) Answers all these Questions in a Digestible way for all levels of Investors: www.lvxresearch.comSign up for our free market update on the drivers that have historically signalled a change in stock market direction. Subscribe to our Monthly research at www.lvxresearch.com
Transcript of Prior Signals of Corrections in US Stock Market (S&P 500) and Where We Stand. June 2015.
LVX Research Edge Australia April - Summary
LVX Research Prior Signals of Corrections in US Stock Markets and Where We Currently Stand June 20151copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comPaid Third Party Research Provider on Asian/Australian Stocks. Focused on Researching: What Historical Factors/Metrics Consistently Drive Stock and Industry Segment Out Performance ? What Fundamental Investment Strategies Are Working Consistently? Growth Vs Value, Contrarian Vs Momentum, Seasonal factors, Anomalies? Please read disclaimers on our website.
www.lvxresearch.com
1Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check- 20Yr UST vs S&P 5002copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comLong dated treasury bonds in the US act as a safe haven attracting capital when markets get nervous or when economic conditions are expected to turn down over the medium term. Looking at simple trends of the 20 year bond price divided by the broad market index historically has given an early warning of a correction, comparing it to its moving average. This was the case in 2008, in 2011, 2012.
Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check S&P 500 Vs Vix Index3copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comMedium term increases in volatility have in the past signalled more difficult markets ahead, particularly as the moving average starts to accelerate upwards.
Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check Initial Jobless Trend4copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comJob growth in the US has been a focus of central banks and a gauge of the health of the economy. Watching trends in its deterioration particularly through moving average increases has been a good indicator for more difficult markets and a trend reversal in the US historically.
Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check Economic Signals5copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comIndustrial production and leading economic indicators when they breach their moving averages have historically shown difficult markets ahead. The fed credit officer surveyfor small business as to whether banks are tightening credit is also a good indicator of the health of the economy because if banks aren't lending to the biggest job creatorsin the economy (small business) historically has been a predictor of a correction in the markets
Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check- S&P 500 Earnings Trends6copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comWatching the trend in earnings and the components of growth , have historically driven market performance and whilst there is a lag, focusing on the most economically sensitive areas has historically been accurate. US earnings have recently turned down .
Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check- Global Earnings Trends7copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comWatching the trend in earnings and the components of growth , have historically driven market performance and whilst there is a lag, focusing on the most economically sensitive areas has historically been accurate. US earnings growth has out performed the rest of the world substantially since 2008, whereas Latin America and Russia have underperformed as has Australia. Asia has performed well from an earnings perspective but not from a market perspective.
Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check- Number Consumer Cos in S&P 500 Showing +ve Growth8copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.com
The chart shows the percentage of consumer goods companies in the S&P 500( the consumer makes up 70% of GDP) that are showing positive sales growth and those showing positive earnings growth for 2014. These charts line up against 2007 going into 2008. The internals of the market are deteriorating in terms of companies showing positive growth.Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check- Number Cos Showing +ve Earnings Growth S&P 5009copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.com
This chart shows the percentage of companies in the S&P 500 that are showing positive sales growth and those showing positive earnings growth for 2014. These charts line up against the performance during 2007 going into 2008. The internals of the market look worse 2008 in terms of the percentage of companies showing positive growth. Edge June 2015 Market Review and Health Check10copyright C 2015. www.lvxresearch.comWe provide historical factual market and financial information for institutional, professional investors and advisors. We do not provide general advice or specific advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Please see our disclaimer on the main website for more information.
