Principles, Prices and Places: Residential Water Use in Kelowna, British Columbia
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Transcript of Principles, Prices and Places: Residential Water Use in Kelowna, British Columbia
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Principles, Prices and Places: Residential Water Use in
Kelowna, British Columbia
John JanmaatDepartment of Economics
University of British Columbia – Okanagan Campus
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Outline
• The Okanagan Valley• Principles• Prices• Places• Conclusion
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The Okanagan Valley
• In the Southern Interior of British Columbia.• Semi-arid climate
– Dry (280 – 450mm precipitation per year)– Short, relatively mild winter.– Hot summer.
• “Napa Valley North”– Tourist destination– Retirement destination
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Location
Oroville to Enderby Google Earth tour
Okanagan Valley
Annapolis Valley
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Climate
• The Okanagan is a North – South valley in the interior plateau of BC.– Coast and Cascade
mountains createrain shadow.
– Lack of relief on plateau makes waterstorage expensiveto build.
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Yarmouth
GreenwoodTruro
New Glasgo
wSy
dney
Halifax
0400800
12001600
Total Precipitation
Vanco
uver
Prince
Rupert
Prince
George
Kamloops
Dawso
n Creek
Kelowna
GoldenTofino
0500
100015002000250030003500
Total Precipitation
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Unique Habitat
• Many species found nowhere else in Canada– 172 red listed species.
• Among highest concentration in Canada.
• Extreme development pressures.– Immigration into Valley– Demand for single family homes near lake
• Most desirable development properties also harbor unique habitat.
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Principles
• Moral Suasion– Persuade people to ‘do the right thing’
• Examples– Okanagan Waterwise
• Supported by Okanagan Basin Water Board– Mail, newspaper, television, radio, internet, etc.
programs to inform / convert residents.– Education material provided for schools
• OBWB and NRCan, Waterscapes Poster
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Education
• Combine information with an appeal to ‘do the right thing.’
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Kelowna Residential Survey
• Telephone, internet and mail survey.– Initially telephone, with internet alternative.– Finally, mail, with internet alternative
• Stratified random sample.– Coverage of different water providers.
• 741 numbers called 1532 letters sent– No answer, etc. from phone part of mailing.– 516 returns, 490 complete.
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Conservation Behaviors
• Indoor Investments– Low flow shower heads, etc.
• Outdoor investments– Timed irrigation, arid climate plantings, etc.
• Behaviors– Turn off tap when brushing teeth, etc.
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Indoor Investments
Don't know
Greywater reuse
Water cons. DW
Water cons. WM
Flow flow toilets
Low flow shower
Tap aerators
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
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Outdoor Investments
Don't know
Other
Soil additive
Greywater yard
Pool cover
Rain capture
Timed irrig.
Moisture probe irrig.
Drought grass
Reduce water
Xeriscape
Paver/gravel
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
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Behaviors
Laundry when full
DW when full
Flush when necc.
Turn of shower
Turn off tap
Use basin
Scrape dishes
0 100 200 300 400
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Total Conservation Actions
Conservation Actions
Conservation Actions
Freq
uenc
y
0 5 10 15 20
020
4060
8010
012
0
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Principles
• Use of moral suasion common• Does it work?• Measurement
– Assorted ad-hoc measurement instruments– ‘Standard’, New Ecological Paradigm
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New Ecological Paradigm1. We are approaching the limit of the number of people the earth
can support.2. Humans have the right to modify the natural environment to suit
their needs.3. When humans interfere with nature, it often produces disastrous
consequences.4. Human ingenuity will insure that we do not make the earth
unlivable.5. Humans are severely abusing the earth.6. The earth has plenty of natural resources if we just learn how to
develop them.7. Plants and animals have as much right as humans to exist.
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New Ecological Paradigm8. The balance of nature is strong enough to cope with the impacts
of modern industrial nations.9. Despite our special abilities, humans are still subject to the laws of
nature.10. The so-called "ecological crisis" facing humankind has been greatly
exaggerated.11. The earth is like a spaceship with very limited room and resources.12. Humans were meant to rule over the rest of nature.13. The balance of nature is very delicate and easily upset.14. Humans will eventually learn enough about how nature works to
be able to control it.15. If things continue on their present course, we will soon experience
a major environmental catastrophe.
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New Ecological ParadigmNew Ecological Paradigm
sem3fac
Freq
uenc
y
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
020
4060
8010
012
014
0
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NEP and Conservation
20 40 60 80
05
1015
Conservation Actions by NEP
New Ecological Paradigm
Tota
l Con
serv
atio
n A
ctio
ns
C = 9.85 – 0.016NEP, R2 = 0.003
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Knowledge
Knowledge
Grade
Freq
uenc
y
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
050
100
150
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Knowledge and Conservation
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
05
1015
Conservation Actions by NEP
Grade
Tota
l Con
serv
atio
n A
ctio
ns
C = 8.87 + 1.45KNOW, R2 = 0.007
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Principles - Summary
• Almost no relationship between knowledge about Okanagan and water conservation.
• Almost no relationship between environmental values and water conservation.– Sign even wrong!
• What is causing water conservation?– Price?
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Price
• Basic Economic Theory– Marginal willingness to pay for a good decreasing
in price.– Downward sloping demand curves.
• Measurement– Cross sectional data, no variation in price.
• Surveys at about same time.• Need price variation across space.
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Kelowna Water Suppliers
• Five water providers– Three irrigation district
that supply residential.• Charge by connection.• MC zero for users.
– Two urban water systems.
• Charge increasing block
• Spatial price diff.
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Differences Between Providers
• 1-6, Conservation counts. 7, Information sources– NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE!!!
Var N Mean Test Pr(>crit) BMID CITY GEID OTHER RWW SEKID1 516 2.554 2.670 0.751 2.754 2.624 2.440 2.250 2.429 2.6582 516 6.783 0.760 0.579 7.508 6.924 6.533 6.125 6.200 7.0003 516 2.552 1.670 0.893 2.523 2.591 2.507 2.688 2.486 2.7954 516 5.380 0.470 0.798 5.308 5.401 5.293 5.938 5.171 6.0555 516 4.043 3.080 0.687 4.292 4.021 4.013 3.875 3.714 4.2886 516 4.667 1.160 0.329 4.985 4.620 4.693 4.562 4.200 4.9457 516 3.938 0.160 0.978 4.092 3.979 3.800 3.812 4.029 4.068
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Price - Summary
• No variation in reported conservation behavior between water providers.– Inconsistent with expected price impact.
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Principles vs Price
• Neither Knowledge, Environmental Attitude, or Price seem to explain variation in reported conservation.
• Does anything explain behavior?
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Information Sources
Information Sources
Count of Information Sources
Freq
uenc
y
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
020
4060
8010
0
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Information Sources
C = 7.19 + 0.50MSG, R2 = 0.114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
05
1015
Conservation Actions by Messages
Reported Information Sources
Tota
l Con
serv
atio
n A
ctio
ns
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Multiple Regression Results
• Combined and interaction effects.– Outdoor investments explained best (>10%)– Indoor investment: messages, pro-environmental
values and income.– Outdoor investment: messages and income.– Actions: messages, water conservation values,
weakly education.– Knowledge about Okanagan and belief Okanagan
facing crisis never important!
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Principles vs Price
• Environmental attitudes have at best a minor influence.
• No evidence for a price influence.– But income does help explain investments.– Price too low?
• Main effect from repetition of messages.– Household water use habitual, save water by
changing habituation?
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Place
• In real estate, Location, Location, Location.• In water use?
– Many aspects of residential property likely to affect water use.
• Lot size – more yard to irrigate• House size – more people using water• Age – older, more water using fixtures• Assessed value (income proxy) – earn more, use more
– Anything left over?
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Water Use Data
• City of Kelowna monthly water data– Bit of gymnastics to acquire.
• BC Assessment property information– Augment with housing characteristics
• City of Kelowna GIS property boundary and elevation data– Lot area, elevation, aspect, etc.
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Monthly Water Use
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Spatial Water Use
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Spatial Analysis
• Why is there a spatial pattern?• An artifact?
– Large lots close together?– Older homes close together?– Larger homes close together?– Higher income people living close together?
• Can these effects be eliminated, to isolate any remaining effect of proximity?
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Spatial Regression
• Value at A impacted by value at B, D, E.
• Value at E impacted by value at A, B, C, D, F, G, H, I.
• Spatial Lag, Value at E directly related to value at other locs.
• Spatial Error, Unexplained value at E related to unexplained value at other locs.
A B CD E FG H I
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Spatial Regression
• Math gets a bit complicated.• Much computer power required.• Following slides from conference
presentation.– One economist showing off to others.
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Spatial Analysis
• Strong support for spatial patterns for summer water use in Kelowna.
• Spatial effect not explained.– Behavioral – people do what their neighbours do?– Artificial – building regulations, soil types, etc.
actually responsible.• SR vs LR choices.
• If spatial effect ‘real’, can be used.
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Conclusion
• For Kelowna:– Environmental values not closely related to water
use.– Price differences have little impact.– Multiple messages seem to influence behavior.– People seem to do what their neighbours do.