Principles of Finance How to Calculate Present Value...FM47M/L How to Calculate Present Value 3...
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FM47M/L How to Calculate Present Value
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Principles of Finance How to Calculate Present Value
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Overview
How To Calculate Present Values
β Valuing Long-Lived Assets
β Absence of Arbitrage
β PV Shortcuts β Perpetuities and Annuities
β Internal Rate of Return
β Compound Interest & Present Values
β Nominal and Real Interest Rates
Based on Chapters 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.1 in BMA
See also Chapters 5.1 and 5.2 in BKM
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Return Definitions
Discount rate: Rate used to calculate the present value of future cash flows
(Opportunity) cost of capital: Expected return that is foregone by investing in a project rather than in comparable investment opportunity, e.g., financial securities
Required rate of return (hurdle rate): Rate required from an investment to undertake it
Required return, hurdle rate and opportunity cost of capital are different names for the same concept
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Discount Factor
Define Discount Factor (DF) as PV of Β£1:
Discount Factors can be used to compute the present value of any cash flow realizing at time t:
DF =1
(1 + πππ‘π‘)π‘π‘
PV = DF Γ πΆπΆπ‘π‘ =πΆπΆπ‘π‘
(1 + πππ‘π‘)π‘π‘
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Present Values
Since PVs express value in current Β£, they can be added up to evaluate cash flows accruing at different times
PV =πΆπΆ1
1 + ππ1+
πΆπΆ2(1 + ππ2)2
+ β―+πΆπΆππ
(1 + ππππ)ππ
A shorthand of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) formula is
PV = οΏ½πΆπΆπ‘π‘
(1 + πππ‘π‘)π‘π‘
ππ
π‘π‘=1
In general, r1, r2, r3, β¦. can be different
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= Β£93.46
=Β£172.42
= Β£265.88
Present Values
Present Value
Year 0
100/1.07
200/1.0772
Total
Β£100
Β£200
Year 0 1 2
PV =100
1 + 0.07+
200(1 + 0.077)2
= 265.88
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Example
Back to land/office development example.
β Construction takes now two years, requiring an initial payment of Β£120,000 plus Β£50,000 for the land, a payment of Β£100,000 in a year from now, and a final payment of Β£100,000 at the end of the second year
Despite the delay the building can be sold for Β£420,000
What are cash flows, PVs and NPV?
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 -170,000 -100,000 +320,000
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Example (contβd)
The PV of one dollar received in year t is the Discount Factor (DF) for year t.
Given r = 5% the discount factors for year 1 and year 2 are:
DF1 =1
1 + 0.05= 0.9524
DF2 =1
(1 + 0.05)2= 0.9070
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Example (contβd)
Period Discount Factor
Cash Flow Present Value
0 1.00 -170,000 -170,000
1 0.95 -100,000 -95,238
2 0.91 +320,000 +290,249
NPV= +25,011
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Absence of Arbitrage
While interest rates rt may differ across periods, discount factors must be smaller for cash flow streams accruing further in the future
β A Β£ tomorrow is worth more than a Β£ the day after tomorrow
Suppose to the contrary and consider time-1 and time-2 discount factors:
DF1 = 1/(1.2)=0.83 and DF2 =1/(1.07)2 =0.87
Hence, Β£1 in year 2 would be more valuable than Β£1 in year 1
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Absence of Arbitrage
Such discount factors imply arbitrage opportunities, that is, allow to make (unlimited) profits for sure
Arbitrage strategy
β t=0: borrow 1048 = 1200/(1+0.07)2 for 2 years, lend 1000 for 1 year at 20%
β t=1: Store repaid Β£1200 in cash until year 2
β t=2: Repay loan Β£1200
β Net (overall) gain (from t=0): 48
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Absence of Arbitrage
Arbitrage opportunities (would) offer sure way of making money. In well-functioning financial markets such opportunities are quickly/immediately eliminated
Interest rates (or prices) adjust to eliminate arbitrage. Thus, absence of arbitrage imposes restrictions on the discount factors
Important implication of no-arbitrage is law of one price: Securities that have identical cash flows should be traded at the same price in well-functioning markets
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Quick Question
A project generates cash flows of Β£432,000 in year 1, Β£437,000 in year 2, and Β£330,000 in year 3. The cost of capital is 15%. What is the projectβs PV?
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Answer
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Shortcuts
When cash flows accrue over many, many periods, calculating PVs can get very tiresome
There are β sometimes - shortcuts that make it easy to figure out the PVs of assets paying off in many periods
The tools allowing us to perform calculations quickly are:
β Perpetuity
β Annuity
β Perpetuity with growth
β Annuity with growth
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Perpetuity
Perpetuity: Asset/security that pays a constant cash flow each period to perpetuity:
Present value at time 0 is given by
PV =πΆπΆππ
t+4 t 3
C
years: 1 2 β¦ t+1 t+2 t+3 β¦ T β¦
C C C C C C C C
Perpetuity with first payment in year 1
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Perpetuity
Derivation of the formula using infinite series
PV = ππ 1 + π₯π₯ + π₯π₯2 + π₯π₯3 + π₯π₯4 + β―+ π₯π₯π‘π‘ + β― , where π₯π₯ =1
1 + ππ and ππ =
πΆπΆ1 + ππ
PV β π₯π₯ = ππ β π₯π₯ + π₯π₯2 + π₯π₯3 + π₯π₯4 + β―+ π₯π₯π‘π‘ + β― PV β PV β π₯π₯ = ππ PV 1 β π₯π₯ = ππ
PV =πΆπΆ
1 + ππβ
1
1 β 11 + ππ
=πΆπΆππ
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Annuity
Annuity from year 1 to year t
t 3
C
years: 1 2 β¦
C C C
Annuity: Asset/security that pays a fixed cash flow each period for a specified number of years:
The PV of an annuity is equal to the value difference of a perpetuity with its first payment in year 1 and a perpetuity with its first payment in year t+1
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t+4 t
Annuity
3
C
years: 1 2 β¦ t+1 t+2 t+3 β¦ T β¦
C C C C C C C C
Perpetuity with first payment at year 1 (P1)
t+4 t 3
0
years: 1 2 β¦ t+1 t+2 t+3 β¦ T β¦
0 0 0 C C C C C
Perpetuity with first payment at year t+1 (Pt+1)
Annuity from year 1 to year t (A)
t+4 t 3
C
years: 1 2 β¦ t+1 t+2 t+3 β¦ T β¦
C C C 0 0 0 0 0
π΄π΄ = ππ1 β πππ‘π‘+1
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Annuity
Perpetuity (1st payment in year 1)
Perpetuity (1st payment in year t + 1)
Annuity from year 1 to year t
Asset Year of Payment
1 2 β¦. t t + 1
Present Value
πΆπΆππβπΆπΆππβ
1(1 + ππ)π‘π‘
πΆπΆππβ
1(1 + ππ)π‘π‘
πΆπΆππ
PV of annuity = πΆπΆ Γ1ππβ
1ππ(1 + ππ)π‘π‘
PV annuity = PV perpetuity β1
1 + ππ π‘π‘ PV(perpetuity)
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Example
Leasing a car requires monthly payments of Β£300 during four years, payable at the end of each month. If the opportunity cost of capital is 0.5% per month, what is the PV of the cost of the lease?
Lease Cost = 300 Γ1
.005β
1.005(1 + .005)48
= Β£12,774.10
where1
.005β
1.005(1 + .005)48
is the 48 month annuity factor
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Quick Question
In May 1998 a retired couple bought a lottery ticket and won a record Β£194 million. However, this sum was to be paid in 25 equal instalments. If the first instalment is paid out immediately (annuity due), and the interest rate was 9%, what is the PV of the prize?
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Answer
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Perpetuity With Growth
Consider a security which pays C1 next period, and then the payment grows at rate g forever
Given r is fixed and g < r, the present value at time 0 is given by
PV =
πΆπΆ1ππ β ππ
3
C1
years: 1 2 β¦ t+1 t+2 β¦ T β¦
Perpetuity with growth with first payment in year 1
C1(1+g) C1(1+g)2 C1(1+g)t C1(1+g)t+1 C1(1+g)T-1
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Annuity With Growth
Consider a security which pays C1 next period, and then the payments grow at a rate g until period t after which payments terminate
Its PV is equivalent to the PV of a perpetuity with growth minus the PV of that perpetuity with growth starting at time t.
PV =
πΆπΆ1ππ β ππ
β1 + ππ1 + ππ
π‘π‘ πΆπΆ1ππ β ππ
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Internal Rate of Return
The internal rate of return(IRR) is defined as the discount/return rate that makes NPV=0:
NPV = πΆπΆ0 +πΆπΆ1
1 + IRR+
πΆπΆ2(1 + IRR)2
+ β―+πΆπΆππ
1 + IRR ππ = 0
With a single payoff, IRR is also the rate of return
NPV = βπΆπΆ0 +πΆπΆ1
1 + IRR= 0
and hence IRR = πΆπΆ1βπΆπΆ0πΆπΆ0
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Internal Rate of Return
Consider a project that has the following cash flows:
IRR can be found by trial and error or by using numerical methods/financial calculator
NPV = β4,000 +2,000
1 + IRR+
4,0001 + IRR 2 = 0
Cash Flows
C0 C1 C2
-4,000 +2,000 +4,000
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IRR rule: Accept projects with IRR > r, because NPV > 0
Internal Rate of Return
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
IRR=28%
Net Present Value
Discount rate, r
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Pitfalls of Using IRR
The IRR method cannot distinguish between investing (or lending) and borrowing
When borrowing IRR should be less not more than opportunity cost of capital.
β When borrowing, NPV is increasing β rather than decreasing - with the discount rate
NPV rule provides correct answer for both lending and borrowing
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Project πΆπΆ0 πΆπΆ1 IRR NPV@10% A -1,000 +1,500 +50% +364 B +1,000 -1,500 +50% -364
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Pitfalls of Using IRR
There may be multiple IRRs
Consider a project with an initial investment, cash inflows for 9 years and a final cost:
Cash Flows (in millions)
C0 C1 β¦ C9 C10
-30 10 10 -65
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Pitfalls of Using IRR
At 10% opportunity cost of capital, the NPV is 2,53 million
The IRRs are +3.50% and +19.54%.
40 NPV
20
0
-40
-60
Discount Rate
IRR=19.54%
IRR= 3.50%
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Simple and Compound Interest
Simple interest means interest is paid (in each period) only on the initial investment
Compound interest means each interest payment is reinvested to earn more interest in subsequent periods.
Difference in wealth invested at simple and compounded interest grows with number of periods
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Compound Interest
02468
1012141618
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Number of Years
FV o
f $1
10% Simple
10% Compound
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Quoted vs Effective Interest Rate
In US, companies/banks quote annual percentage rate (APR), an annual rate r to be paid in m sub-periods at a m-period rate of r/m
For instance, an APR of 12% with interest monthly paid, means a monthly rate of 1%
The true annual rate is:
(1+0.01)12 β 1 = 12.68%
The true rate 12.6% is called the effective annual rate
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Compound Interest
i ii iii iv v m periods per year
Interest per period r/m
Quoted Rate iΓii
Value after one year
Effective Annual rate
1 6.0000% 0.06 1.06000 6.000% 2 3.0000% 0.06 1.06090 6.090% 4 1.5000% 0.06 1.06136 6.136%
12 0.5000% 0.06 1.06168 6.168% 52 0.1154% 0.06 1.06180 6.180%
365 0.0164% 0.06 1.06183 6.183%
General formula for m compounding periods per year:
EAR = 1 +APRππ
ππ
β 1
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Compounded Interest
An investment of Β£1 at an annual rate r compounded m times grows by the end of the year to: [1+(r/m)]m.
Hence, the annually compounded rate of interest is: [1+(r/m)]m-1
When m approaches infinity, interest gets continuously compounded and [1+(r/m)]m approaches er, where e=2.718281828β¦ This is called continuous compounding:
limππββ
1 +rππ
ππ= ππππ
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Equivalent Compounded Rate
Under continuous compounding the present value formula becomes:
This is because the PV of a single cash flow Ct is given by:
PV πΆπΆπ‘π‘ = limππββ
πΆπΆπ‘π‘(1 + πππ‘π‘/ππ)πππ‘π‘ =
πΆπΆπ‘π‘πππππ‘π‘Γπ‘π‘ =πΆπΆπ‘π‘ππβπππ‘π‘Γπ‘π‘
PV = πΆπΆ0 + πΆπΆ1ππβππ1 + πΆπΆ2ππβππ2Γ2 + β―+ πΆπΆππππβππππΓππ
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Nominal and Real Rates
Inflation: Rate at which general level of prices increases.
Nominal Interest Rate: Rate at which the value of investment grows in money (Β£) terms.
Real Interest Rate: Rate at which the purchasing power of an investment increases.
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Inflation
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2019
00
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Ann
ual I
nfla
tion
%100 Years of U.S. Inflation
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Inflation A
nn
ual
In
flat
ion
-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
100 Years of UK Inflation
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Real Rate of Interest
Let rn be the nominal interest rate, rr the real interest rate, and i the inflation rate:
Rearranging 1 + ππππ 1 + ππ = 1 + ππππ β 1 + ππππ + ππ + ππππ β ππ = 1 + ππππ
β ππππ + ππ + ππππ β ππ = ππππ
Given rrβ’i is very small, i.e., 0, we get as approximation
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1 + ππππ =1 + ππππ1 + ππ
ππππ + ππ β ππππ or ππππ β ππππ β ππ
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Example
If the interest rate on one year goverment bonds is 5.9% and the inflation rate is 3.3%, what is the real interest rate? What is the approximate real interest rate?
1 + rr = (1+0.059)/(1+0.033) = 1.02517
and rr is 0.02517 or 2.517%
Approximate: rr = 0.059 β 0.033 = 0.026 or 2.6%
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Quick Question
You have the opportunity to invest in the Belgravian Republic at 25 percent interest. The inflation rate is 21 percent. What is the real rate of interest? What is the approximate real rate of interest?
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Answer
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Summary of Important Equations
Present Value:
Perpetuity:
t-period Annuity:
Growing perpetuity:
t-period growing annuity:
Real interest rate:
PV = πΆπΆ0 +πΆπΆ1
1 + ππ+
πΆπΆ2(1 + ππ)2
+ β―+πΆπΆππ
(1 + ππ)ππ
PV =πΆπΆππ
PV =πΆπΆππβπΆπΆππβ
1(1 + ππ)π‘π‘
PV =πΆπΆ
ππ β ππ
PV =πΆπΆ1
ππ β ππβ
1 + ππ1 + ππ
π‘π‘ πΆπΆ1ππ β ππ
1 + ππππ =1 + ππππ1 + ππ
or ππππ β ππππ β ππ