Primary ReformsAmar Kakirde

Why?

• Frontloading

• Importance to NH and IA• Not representative

• Larger states primaries mean nothing

Current attempts

• Timing • Early primaries were given half of its delegates

• Over time, this percentage is increased, to 120% in June

• 2012 Republican parties don’t really follow this

• Travel isn’t necessarily reduced

The American Plan

• California Plan• Graduated Random Presidential Primary System

• Created by Thomas Gangale

• Engineer and Political Scientist

• Starts in small states

• Steadily builds up to larger states

• Only reform cited in Democratic Report of the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling (2005)

• 10 intervals• 2 weeks each

• Randomly selected states

American Plan Mechanics

• 2 week additions• 1st week- 8 congressional districts/votes can be contested by random

territories or states

• Next week, 16 electoral votes can be contested

• Add eight

• California could not vote until the 7th period

• Texas, NY, Florida can vote in the 4th

• Weakening of California

• Addressed by staggering periods after 4th week

• 1st week, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 4th,7th, 6th, etc

The National Plan

• Based on an op-ed from Jonathan Soros in the NY Times• 2007

• 2008 super primary

• National

• Every state votes on the same day?• Not quite

• Power in voter’s hands

Mechanics

• Simultaneous primaries across the nation• Voting over five months

• Primary on 6/30• Voting begins on January 1st

• First voters passionate• All states relevant

• Increased participation?

• Long relevancy

• Allows for “retail politicking”

• Randomness is not fairness

• Money would still be a strong factor

Concerns

• Potentially far flung states• Difficulties in travelling

• Certain states get a benefit due to size• MI has a likelihood to go earlier

• 39% chance to go in first 5 rounds

• States closer to a multiple of 8 have a

greater chance to go earlier

The Delaware Plan

• Basil Battaglia• Delaware GOP state chairman

• Passed RNC Rules committee (2000)• Failed at RNC convention

• Iowan opposition

• General RNC opposition

• Backloading• Allow small states to go first

• Pods of primaries• Each 30 days apart

• States can move their primaries beyond

Mechanics

• 4 pods• Population as determined by census

• 13, 13, 12, 12

• Small states hold primaries in February/ March• Large states vote in May/June

• Freedoms• Primary or caucus

• Can take place at any time in their month

• Free to push back

• Red, yellow, green, blue

Benefits

• Small states allows for greater grassroots• Momentum for dark-horse candidates

• Homesteading weakened

• Longer process• 9 percent delegates chosen in the first round

• Perhaps even delayed to final round

• More access• More winners of small contests for a push

• Longer time gives more time to develop on good showings

• Spread media attention

Negatives

• Weaker efforts in each state• Perhaps even ignore states

• Money may still be a problem• Spread states requires more money

• Longer times require more resources

• 4 small campaigns• Each set of states requires a refocusing

• East Coast Bias• The news cycle moves on East Coast time

Interregional Primary Plan

• Rep. Sander Levin

• Staggers primaries• 6 geographical regions

• Each region would have its own regions within it

• Tuesdays• March and June

• Randomly selected subregions from each region would participate• Each state would get to go first every 24 years

Regions

• 6 regions• 6 subregions

• “Region 1: (A) Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont; (B) Massachusetts; (C) Connecticut, Rhode Island; (D) Delaware, New Jersey; (E) New York; (F) Pennsylvania

• Region 2: (A) Maryland; (B) West Virginia; (C) Missouri; (D) Indiana; (E) Kentucky; (F) Tennessee

• Region 3: (A) Ohio; (B) Illinois; (C) Michigan; (D) Wisconsin; (E) Iowa; (F) Minnesota

• Region 4: (A) Texas; (B) Louisiana; (C) Arkansas, Oklahoma; (D) Colorado; (E) Kansas, Nebraska; (F) Arizona, New Mexico

• Region 5: (A) Virginia; (B) North Carolina; (C) South Carolina; (D) Florida; (E) Georgia; (F) Mississippi, Alabama

• Region 6: (A) California; (B) Washington; (C) Oregon; (D) Idaho, Nevada, Utah; (E) Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming; (F) Hawaii, Alaska”

Concerns

• Huge travel costs• Have to travel around the country for each contest

• Reduces the strength of poorer candidates

• Unbalanced mixes of states• One random selection might leave all the biggest states together

• Small states might be unbalanced by large states in their group

Rotating Regional Plan

• NASS• 2000

• Endorsed:• Carter-Baker Commission on Federal Election Reform

• 2005

• Amy Klouchbar, Joe Lieberman, Lamar Alexander

• Introduction of a Senate legislation to implement it

Mechanics

• 4 Regions• Northeast

• South

• Midwest

• West

• Electoral votes in the 90’s Census

• Rotating• Around the first Tuesday

• Starts in March

• Exception: Iowa and New Hampshire

Benefits

• Removes frontloading• Allows for longer time for voter input

• Greater chances for unknown candidates

• Equal attention to each region• Each region will get to go first

• Regional Issues

• National campaign status quo

• Relevant issues for relevant people

• Better spent money

Problems

• Iowa and New Hampshire• Homesteading

• Homesteading• Predictable states to target

• Constitutionality?

• Larger area• Favors rich, well known candidates

Regional Lottery Plan

• Amendment to Rotating Regional Plan• Larry Sabato, UVA

• Randomly chosen order of nominating regions• Run by a non-partisan commission

• Determined 6 months prior

• State choice between primary or caucus

• Caucus goes before primaries

• Removes the privileged position of NH and IA

• Shorter process

• Unpredictable• Excessively long campaigns

Changes

• UVA Center for Politics

• Primary v. Caucus unimportant

• Small state lottery• Craig Smith

One Day National Primary

• Primary/caucuses held on the same day• Proposed 1913 by Woodrow Wilson

• A natural result of frontloading?

• Increased voter participation

• Less interaction between voters and candidates• Depends on quick and wide dissemination

• Removes hierarchies

• Voters get to vote without influence

• Weakens conventions

• 1970 Democratic commission

The Texas Plan

• Four groups• Equal electoral votes

• Equal amount of states

• Balance Republicans and Democrats

• First state goes last in the following cycle

Americans Elect

• An online primary• “Balanced coalition ticket”

• 2012 election

• Led by Peter Ackerman and Kahlil Byrd• Financier

• Many from Unity08

• Funding issues

• Very similar

Mechanics

• Individual voters register on the web site• Questionnaire on politics

• What do you care about

• Contacts

• Organize

• Draft a candidate• Support an existing one

• 3 rounds of voting• Prior Experience reduces vote requirement (1000 from 10 states)

• 5000 otherwise

Mechanics continued

• Rounds• May 8, 15,22

• Second phase

• 6 finalists

• VP Running mate, of another party

• 3rd phase

• June

• Internet convention

Failures

• Nobody actually qualified• Buddy Roemer (LA governor)

• 6000 total supporters

• Secrecy• "The folks running Americans Elect, they don't know who the donors are“- Larry

Sragow (AE Strategist)

• Lack of transparency

• Do moderate independents exist?

• July 2012• An end