Price Responsive Load / Retail DR 2013 Analysis Report Overview ERCOT Staff & Frontier Associates

Price Responsive Load / Retail DR

2013 Analysis Report Overview

ERCOT Staff & Frontier Associates

WMS Meeting

July 9, 2014

2

Why it’s important to understand retail DR & price response

• Impacts on the long term load forecast• Return on investment in the advanced metering infrastructure• Ability to track growth of these products is a key metric in

measuring the success of the ERCOT retail market

• This project seeks to start quantifying Load response that occurs outside of ERCOT/TDSP operations – ergo, does not include:– Load Resources in Ancillary Services– ERS– TDSP Load Management Programs

PUC Subst. Rule §25.505(e) (5): Load Serving Entities (LSEs) shall provide ERCOT with complete information on load response capabilities that are self-arranged or pursuant to bilateral agreements between LSEs and their customers.

DR/Price Response Summary ReportJuly 9, 2014

3

History of the 2013 data collection project

• Phase 1 – Survey – ‘Your response to the survey will allow ERCOT to gain a better

understanding of the amount of responsive Load and numbers of retail energy consumers actively responding to Load reduction signals.’

– Results presented in Aug. 2012 to RMS and DSWG

• Phase 2 – Data collection – REPs provided lists of ESI IDs enrolled in various DR/dynamic

pricing products (snapshot June 15, 2013)– Separate survey to REPs collected event data– Phone calls with NOIEs reporting DR-type programs

• Phase 3 – Analysis – After data collection, evaluation of data

• Phase 4 – Report to Market

DR/Price Response Summary Report

We are here!

July 9, 2014

4

Data Evaluation

• ERCOT retained Frontier Associates for analysis and reporting– Jointly defined approach & data requirements – All data anonymized; Frontier signed NDA– Analyzed behavior by customers in products with significant

enrollment (except for Time of Use)• Goal: quantify potential demand reductions that can be

expected from customers during events:– Wholesale price spikes (3 tiers)– Actual and potential 4CP intervals


5

Product types & REP-reported enrollment

Product (code) ESI IDs6/15/13

Evaluated?

Real-Time Pricing (RTP) 4,105 Y

Block & Index (BI) 22,947 Y

Peak Rebate (PR) 1,877 Y

Other Load Control (OLC) 10,071 Y

Other Voluntary DR Product (OTH) 733 Y

Time of Use (TOU) 117,570 N1

Four Coincident Peak Advisory (4CP) 10 N2

Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) 0 N

Financial Option (FO) 0 N


1 TOU products are incentives for long-term behavioral shifts rather than event-based demand response. We deemed analysis to be beyond the scope of this initial project and will revisit after 2014 reporting is in.2 4CP response may be self-initiated or initiated in response to a signal from a third party; REP advisories are likely only a small subset of the total. Therefore, 4CP analysis (discussed later in this slide deck) was approached differently.

6

Methodologies

• Frontier Associates used a variety of baseline analyses to try to quantify load reductions, including:– ERCOT ERS ‘Middle-8-of-10’ with event-day adjustment– Regression with event-day adjustment

• Pricing events (LZ SPPs) were grouped into 3 categories:– $300 - $999 MWh– $1,000 - $2,999 MWh– >$3,000 MWh

• Frontier’s 4CP analysis looked at aggregated load of ESI IDs in competitive choice areas connected at transmission voltage– 319 total ESI IDs

• ERCOT Staff (C. Raish) conducted a separate 4CP analysis using a different (bottom-up) methodology -- same database plus certain distribution-connected loads


7

Challenges & disclaimer

• Dearth of sustained high wholesale price events last summer– One interval at the SWCAP in all of 2013

• REPs’ self-reported events often involved only a small subset of total enrolled customers

• 4CP response and price response have the potential to occur simultaneously– This was not an issue in 2013, but historically the two have

coincided at times• Product types are evolving and we’re still learning

• For these reasons, 2013 results should be considered a big step in the right direction, but not a definitive quantification of retail DR and price response capability in ERCOT


8

Response to wholesale price spikes (>$3,000)


(1) Includes an estimate for industrials within NOIE service areas.

Product type Estimated MW response Note

Real-time Price + Block & Index 232 (1)

NOIE Load Control 200

Peak rebate 0.5

Price response total 432.5

Frontier Associates:

9

Response during actual and potential 4CP intervals

Customer type Estimated MW response Note

IDR transmission-connected 250 (1)

NOIE 200 (2)

Other 50 (3)

4CP Total 500


Notes:(1) Analysis of aggregated load of transmission-connected customers in competitive choice areas. Historical baseline calculation yields an estimate of 251 MW. Regression analysis suggests a reduction of 201 MW on average over the past 5 years.(2) Based on a review of savings estimates reported by NOIEs (no independent data analysis).(3) Estimated value for industrials with IDR meters served at distribution voltage plus industrials within NOIE service areas.

Frontier Associates:

10

ERCOT’s additional 4CP analysis

• ERCOT (Carl Raish) conducted a more detailed analysis, identifying individual ESI IDs based on their behavior on near- and actual 4CP days– Both transmission- and distribution-connected IDR-metered

Loads• Notable:

– Many Loads reduce usage during the entire day on a potential 4CP day

– Slight majority of Loads concentrate on HE 1700


Response type Trans ESI IDs Dist ESI IDs Total

All day 68 1,293 1,361

Peak hour only 81 1,427 1,508

Total 149 2,720 2,869

11

ERCOT’s additional 4CP analysis

• Distribution-connected IDR-metered Loads contributed an average of 127 MW of 4CP response in 2013– 27 percent of estimated total


4CP days 2013Estimated MW response

Trans Dist Total

6/27 315 154 469

7/31 360 138 498

8/7 369 178 547

9/3 331 38 369

Averages 344 127 471

12

Next steps: on to 2014

• Timeline for 2014 data collection project– 9/30: Snapshot date for REPs to capture ESI IDs enrolled in the

various product types– 11/1: REPs submit ESI ID list files to ERCOT– Oct./Nov.: ERCOT dialogue with participating NOIEs– 11/15: REPs submit error-corrected files to ERCOT– 11/15: ERCOT surveys REPs to gather REP-specific event

information• Continue looking at Time of Use enrollment

– Most popular product type, but data analysis could be extremely complicated

• Different hourly pricing buckets (e.g., free nights, weekends)• Start and stop dates become very important

– What can we accomplish without asking REPs for a burdensome amount of new data?

– More market discussion after 2014 data received


13

Questions?

ON

OFF


[email protected] 512/[email protected] 512/[email protected] 512/372-8778 x103

Price Responsive Load / Retail DR 2013 Analysis Report Overview ERCOT Staff & Frontier Associates

Documents

Transcript of Price Responsive Load / Retail DR 2013 Analysis Report Overview ERCOT Staff & Frontier Associates