Preventing alcohol related violence: cost – effectiveness · Preventing alcohol related violence:...
Transcript of Preventing alcohol related violence: cost – effectiveness · Preventing alcohol related violence:...
Sven Andréasson, MD
Swedish National Institute of Public Health
& Department of Public Health Sciences,
Karolinska Institutet
Club Health 2010, Zurich, 7-9 juni 2010
Preventing alcohol
related violence:
cost – effectiveness
Community
coalition
Media Enforcement
Surveys Training Follow-up
The STAD model for violence prevention at
licensed premises
Media Advocacy
Public opinion regarding drunk patrons in bars
and restaurants
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Doormen should refuse
entrance for intoxicated or
drug-influenced patrons
Service to intoxicated
patrons should be reduced
Make obviously intoxicated
patrons leave the premises
Pe
rce
nta
ge
All n=565 Non-frequent visitors n=264 Frequent visitors to bar/-pub, nightclubs n=212
95
53
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1999 2001
% s
erv
ed
Intoxicated
Psudopatrons served
JA
N 1
998
JU
LY
1997
JA
N 1
997
JU
LY
1996
JA
N 1
996
JU
LY
1995
JA
N 1
995
JU
LY
1994
JA
N 1
994
400
300
200
100
0
Police reported violent crime in Stockholm city
1994 – 2000; number of offences
Intervention area
Control area
JU
LY
2000
JA
N 2
000
JU
LY
1999
JA
N 1
999
JU
LY
1998
JA
N 1
998
JU
LY
1997
JA
N 1
997
JU
LY
1996
JA
N 1
996
JU
LY
1995
JA
N 1
995
JU
LY
1994
JA
N 1
994
400
300
200
100
0
Police reported violent crime in Stockholm city
1994 – 2000; number of offences
Intervention area
Control area
Intervention begins
Reduction in
assaults by 29%J Stud Alcohol, 2004
Causal chains
Problem indicator
shows high value
Important determinant
shows high value
Baseline
Assaults in or
near bars & clubs
High level of
alcohol
intoxication
Intervention
RBS-training
and
enforcement
Indicator of preventive
intervention
Problem indicator
shows reduced value
Important determinant
shows high value
Follow-up
Reduction in
assaults
Reduced level of
alcohol
intoxication
Health economic analysis
1. costs of the program, minus…
2. savings in various societal sectors, compared to…
3. health effects measured in QALYs
Number of violent crimes 1998-2000: 7,368
Preventive effect of the restaurant project: 29%
� Number of prevented violent crimes: 3,009 cases
Costs
1. Administration; (salaries project staff, travels, computers,
cleaning, etc.)
2. Studies; baseline & two follow-up studies (training and
salaries to actors/young people)
3. Community Mobilization; minutes of meetings (numbers;
participants), mean wages/payroll taxes
4. RBS training; costs of training (572 participants * 500 SEK),
production loss (572*wages)
5. Law enforcement; visits/inspections (251*45 min*2
policemen & 2 officers), notification letters (72*1 hrs*200 kr)
Survey among victims of violence
• Randomly selected from the National Police Board’s
register of violence, during 2003 in Stockholm City
• 604 victims were selected; serious assaults (n=83),
other assaults (n=288), unlawful threat (n=152), and
assault/threat towards officials (n=81)
• Response rate: 35 %
Survey of victims: monetary effects
of violence
1. Judicial system (police, court, sanction/prison)
2. Production (mainly sickness absence)
3. Health care (emergency transport/treatment, inpatient care,
outpatient care, psychotherapy, drugs)
4. Other damage (personal assistance/belongings)
Combined with data from the Police Board, Public Prosecutor,
Courts Administration, Federation of County Councils,
Association of Pharmacy
(e.g. prison 2,364 SEK/day, emergency trspt 2,311 SEK)
Survey: health effects from
violence
The respondents were asked to classify how the
violence had affected their health by:
1. five dimensions of health (mobility, self-care, usual
activities, pain, anxiety/depression)
2. three levels (no problems, moderate problems,
extreme problems
3. ‘before violence’, ‘two weeks after’, ‘at present’
� gained quality-adjusted life-years QALYs
The average cost of a violent crime(euros)
Type: Assault Threat Other
20,145 21,382 10,870
Sex: Male Female
17,684 20,912
Education:Compulsory Secondary University <3yr University ≥3 yr
9,119 10,141 16,368 32,274
Results (euros, discounted values)
Costs
• Project administration 492,050
• Mapping/follow-up 27,632
• Community mobilisation 33,723
• RBS training 220,906
• Law enforcement 21,517 -795,828
Savings
• Judicial system 24,393,381
• Loss of production 4,728,370
• Health care 1,565,686
• Other damage 626,274 +31,313,711
• Net saving +30,517,883
Results: health gainsQuality adjusted life years (QALY:s)
Average health status (max 1.0):
- before the violent crime: 0.8647
- two weeks after: 0.6776
-12 months after: 0.8729
Gained health: 3,009 prevented crimes
* (0.8647 – (0.6776+0.8729)/2)
� 3,009 * (0.8647 – 0.77525)
� 3,009 * 0.08945 ���� 270 QALYs
Sensitivity analysis
• Low response rate (35%)
• Costs not considered, e.g. Family, restaurant
• Main result: 1:39
• IF only police costs for non-respondents �1:18
• IF entirely ignoring the survey (2,001*3,009) �1:7
Conclusion
• Cost-saving 1:39
• Health gains 3-4 lives in normal health
• CBA of Alcohol law inforcement Michigan �1:45
• ”Investing in RBS is a wise use of societal resources;
i.e. monetary savings, health gains, & welfare gains”
National dissemination
Through the Police authorities
Through the County administrations
Moving on to illicit drugs: an environmental approach to drug use and drug prevention
Acknowledgements
• Co – authors
Anna Månsdotter, Eva Wallin, Malin Rydberg
& Lars Lindholm
• Publication: European Journal of Public Health
2007