Presidential Elections

The people who cast the votes do not decide an election, the people who count the votes do.

-- Joseph Stalin (1879 - 1953)

Presidential Elections

How are candidates “nominated?”

The “Rhythm” of the Race” How are candidates “elected?” The Winning Strategy

How Are Candidates Nominated?

I don't care who does the electing just so long as I do the nominating.

--“Boss” William M. TweedTammany Hall, 1858-1871

How Are Candidates Nominated?

Convention

How Are Candidates Nominated?

Convention Caucus

How Are Candidates Nominated?

Convention Caucus Primary

McGovern-Fraser Commission

Officially known as the Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection (1968)

Published a report called Mandate for Reform (1970)

Recommended delegate selection procedures to be open (i.e. not secret)

Recommended proportional representation of underrepresented groups

Votes Cast in Presidential Primaries, 1912-2000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,00019

12

1920

1928

1936

1944

1952

1960

1968

1976

1984

1992

2000

"Sources: 1912–1996: Congressional Quarterly’s Presidential Elections 1789–1996, 141; 2000: derived by the editors from Rhodes Cook, Race for the Presidency: Winning the 2000 Nomination, and CQ Weekly, “GOP Convention Guide,” July 29, 2000, 1866 ff., “Democratic Convention Guide,” August 12, 2000, 27 ff."

The “Rhythm” of the Race

Invisible Primary

The “Rhythm” of the Race

Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries

The Bellwether Primaries, 2008January 3: Iowa caucusesJanuary 5: Wyoming (R) caucusesJanuary 8: New Hampshire primaryJanuary 15: Michigan primaryJanuary 19: Nevada caucuses South Carolina (R) primaryJanuary 26: South Carolina (D) primaryJanuary 29: Florida primary

Bellwether Primaries, 2008

Candidate Bellwether Primaries Super Tuesday

Hillary ClintonNew Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Florida

Barack Obama

Iowa, South Carolina

Mike HuckabeeIowa

John McCainNew Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida

Mitt RomneyWyoming, Michigan, Nevada, Maine

The “Rhythm” of the Race

Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries

Delegates Chosen by March 15, 1976-2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

The Battleground Primaries, 2008

January 3: Iowa caucusesJanuary 5: Wyoming (R) caucusesJanuary 8: New Hampshire primaryJanuary 15: Michigan primaryJanuary 19: Nevada caucuses South Carolina (R) primaryJanuary 26: South Carolina (D) primaryJanuary 29: Florida primaryFebruary 1: Maine (R) caucusesFebruary 5 Alaska caucuses, Alabama primary, Arizona primary, Arkansas primary,

California primary, Colorado caucuses, Connecticut primary, Delaware primary, Georgia primary, Idaho (D) caucuses, Illinois primary, Kansas (D) caucuses, Massachusetts primary, Minnesota caucuses, Missouri primary, New Jersey primary, New Mexico (D) caucuses, New York primary, North Dakota caucuses, Oklahoma primary, Tennessee primary, Utah primary

February 9: Kansas (R) caucuses, Louisiana primary, Nebraska (D) caucusesFebruary 10: Maine (D) caucusesFebruary 12: District of Columbia primary, Maryland primary, Virginia primaryFebruary 19: Hawaii (D) caucuses, Washington primary, Wisconsin primaryMarch 4: Ohio primary, Rhode Island primary, Texas primary, Vermont primaryMarch 8: Wyoming (D) caucusesMarch 11: Mississippi primary

Super Tuesday Primaries, 2008

Candidate Bellwether Primaries Super Tuesday

Hillary ClintonNew Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Florida

Arkansas, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Barack Obama

Iowa, South Carolina Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico*, North Dakota, Utah

Mike HuckabeeIowa Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia,

Tennessee, West Virginia

John McCainNew Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida

Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma

Mitt RomneyWyoming, Michigan, Nevada, Maine

Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah

The Rhythm of the Race

Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries Bridge Primaries

The Rhythm of the Race

Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries Bridge Primaries The Conventions

How Are Candidates Elected?

Actually chosen by “Electors” Electors allocated in most

states using the “Unit Rule”

Electoral and Popular Vote, 1828-2000

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1828

1840

1852

1864

1876

1888

1900

1912

1924

1936

1948

1960

1972

1984

1996

Electoral College Popular Vote

Electoral College Strategy

Electoral College Strategy

Media Strategy

Airwar Strategy