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President Trump

Why it might not be as improbable as you think September 25th, 2016 Mike Newman

Election spending

Twitter

Facebook

Resonating with followers

This election has always been Hillary Clinton’s to lose

To date, US presidential election campaign spending on traditional formats (e.g.TV, radio,

newspapers, billboards) have shown the Clinton camp has used up over $145mn versus the

Trump team’s $4.4mn. Clinton even made the remark that “why aren’t I 50-points ahead? You

might ask?” Effective use of social media seems to be a factor. The Clinton team should be

concerned at the lack of impact. Anything short of a landslide win should be considered a large

warning to the DNC.

I am not a fan of Twitter. Let's get that straight. It is usually a cesspit of vile abuse with little or no

content. However, our two US presidential candidates are furious tweeters. Since the results from

the primaries for both parties, both Clinton & Trump were around the early 4 million follower mark,

the highest among all candidates. Since then, Trump has streaked ahead, making far better use of

the platform, garnering over 11.7 million followers versus Clinton’s 8.9mn. We remind readers of

our elections piece where we showed the high correlation of Twitter followings to election

victories. Of course it isn’t an exact science. If Twitter was all that mattered, then Katy Perry could

easily be the first female president.

When we look at other social media sites the pattern is the same. Trump’s Facebook followers

number 10.77mn vs 6.06mn for Clinton and Instagram puts the Republican nominee at 2.4mn

followers vs 2.1mn for the Democrat nominee.

We analysed the impact they both have on their Twitter audience and found some interesting

themes. In summary, Clinton tends to do well when Sanders or Obama adorn her page otherwise

she flounders. Trump on the other hand consistently does well and when he talks about defence,

the police or 'crooked Hillary' his scores (Likes & Re-tweets) tend to do very well. In short Trump

has 5.4x the impact of Clinton on re-tweets (RT) and 4.3x on Likes. On Facebook Trump has 2.5x

the impact on shares and 3.4x the reach on Likes, Figs. 2-3.

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21.11.15 21.12.15 21.1.16 21.2.16 21.3.16 21.4.16 21.5.16 21.6.16 21.7.16 21.8.16 21.9.16

Fig.1 : Trump vs Clinton - Twitter Followers (mn)

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

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Reaching Voters

Source: Contrarian Marketplace Research, Facebook, Twitter

When digging deeper into issues we noted the following

On reaching out to voters - Twitter

In the following picture, Trump took it upon himself to shake the hands of the Michigan Police

contingent securing his aircraft. 8300 RT & 33,000 Likes. Clinton talks about the lessons from her

mum and gets 1,500RT and 4,400 Likes.

Fig.4: Tweets on reaching out to voters

Source: Twitter

21,218

71,360

4,432

10,966

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Hillary

Clinton

(Average

Likes)

Donald

Trump

(Average

Likes)

Hillary

Clinton

(Average

Shares)

Donald

Trump

(Average

Shares)

Fig.2 Facebook Impact

4,484

24,240

1,942

8,320

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Hillary

Clinton

(Average

Likes)

Donald

Trump

(Average

Likes)

Hillary

Clinton

(Average

Retweets)

Donald

Trump

(Average

Retweets)

Fig. 3: Twitter Impact

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USAF 69th

Even Facebook, Fig.5, shows that Trump supporters are willing to plough a paddock with his

name and get 142,000 likes whereas Clinton gets less shares than her critics in the commentary

section.

Fig.5: Facebook posts on reaching out to voters

Source: Facebook, Contrarian Marketplace Research

On the celebration of the US Air Force's 69th

birthday - Twitter

It isn't a great surprise to have the military in favour of Trump after massive cutbacks over the

Obama Administration. However over the simple question of wishing a Happy 69th Birthday,

Trump gets 12,000 RT to Clinton's 1,500 and for Likes gets 33,000 vs 4,700, Fig.6.

On Facebook Trump had 13,000 shares and 97,000 likes to celebrate the USAF birthday.

Clinton’s Facebook profile did not contain any congratulation.

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NY bombings

Fig.6: Tweets on USAF’s 69th

birthday

Source: Contrarian Marketplace Research, Twitter

On the NY Bombings - Twitter

While the Democrats tried to lambast Trump for calling a bomb a bomb before it was officially

deemed a bomb. Here is results of his response vs Clinton. 16k RT vs 1.7k and Likes at 52k

plays 6.3k. These terrorist acts on home soil play to Trump's much harder stance.

Fig.7: Tweets on NY bombing reactions

Source: Twitter

On attacking the opponent – Twitter & Facebook

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Attacking the opponent

When it comes to firing off shots, Trump's more honest approach is also telling. Trump ridicules

Clinton about her health and gets 24,000 RT and 56,000 Likes, while Clinton jabs at the often

used 'hatred and violence' tag and gets 889 RT and 2,000 Likes.

Fig.8: Tweets on attacking opponent

Source: Twitter

Facebook posts show a similar story, Fig.9.

Fig.9: Facebook posts on attacking opponent

Source: Facebook, Contrarian Marketplace Research

On using others to get their message across

We've probably all worked for someone that often had to use the 'authority' of others to

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The help of others

Mainstream media

validate them in order to mask their own weakness. As can be seen here, Obama and Sanders

garner her more social media status on her site than anything she does herself. Even pictures of

her as a young mother don't ring any bells. Asking for campaign funding doesn't help either. It is

telling. I wrote in another piece that Obama's narcissism may have a negative effect. Telling voters

who voted him in they'll insult 'his' legacy is an insult to them.

Fig.10: Twitter – the impact of others helping out

Source: Twitter, Custom Products Research

For all of the mainstream media's efforts to conduct polls and report on the issues that matter to

them (not their audience), Twitter and Facebook are a 24-7 polling device in and of themselves.

Of course you could argue that most of the 8.9 mn Hillary 'followers' are Democrats and most

11.7mn Trump 'followers are 'Republicans, the interaction with those audiences weigh heavily

toward the latter.

I've written many times in the past that if Twitter was the only benchmark in elections then Katy

Perry would be President. However, studies on Twitter followers and election victories has

revealed tight correlations.

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Correlation

Canada & UK elections

Democrats vs

Republican

Are Social Media & Betting Agencies a good proxy for voter intentions?

When looking at the 2015 elections of Canada and UK we see that major parties with the

most Twitter followers won the most seats, Figs 11 & 12.

Source: Twitter, Electoral authorities of UK & Canada

When we stacked up the nominees for the Democrats and Republicans last October we saw

the similar trends with the betting agency odds for election and Twitter followers. Hillary

Clinton was 1.80 :1 to be nominated. Donald Trump (4.89mn, 7.0 : 1) has the most followers

but Marco Rubio was marginally ahead in the betting stakes (973,000, 4.5 : 1). We shouldn’t forget how badly the betting agencies had picked Brexit which had official Vote Leave

‘followers’ on Twitter marginally greater than official Remain ‘followers’. Once again highly

correlated.

Source: Twitter, SportsBet

I've said repeatedly that this election is Hillary Clinton's to lose. However, the crash in the recent

polls and the lack of validation she gets from Twitter/Facebook shows her inability to 'connect'.

This will make it much harder to claw back lost ground. More and more people consume media

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

- 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000

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ats

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y p

art

y

Twitter Followers by Canadian Party Leader

Fig 11: Canadian 2015 Election Results

vs Twitter Followers by Party Leader

Trudeau

Harper

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

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Twitter Followers by UK Party Leader

Fig 12: UK 2015 Election Results vs

Twitter Followers by Party Leader

Milliband

Cameron

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

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140.0

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Twitter Followers by Candidate

Fig 13: Democratic Presidential

Candidates' Twitter Followers &

Betting Odds: 1 (Oct 2015)

Chafee

Sanders Clinton 0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

- 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000

Be

ttin

g O

dd

s :

1

Twitter Followers by Candidate

Fig 14: Republican Presidential

Candidates' Twitter Followers vs Betting

Odds: 1 (Oct 2015)

Trump Rubio

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Clinton’s election to

lose

LA Times Poll

Education & income

online than ever before.

What are the national polls recording?

The latest LA Times poll shows Trump leading - 45.4% vs Clinton’s 43.0% as at Sep 22nd, the gap

narrowing since a week ago. This is most likely a function of Clinton’s collapse at the 9/11

memorial ceremony. According to SportsBet HRC still leads with $1.53 odds of victory versus

Trump at $2.65.

Fig. 14: LA Times National Poll – Sep 14th

Source: LA Times

When broken down into education and income, the statistics also show interesting trends. Lower

income groups favour Clinton as do the more educated. It is rather oxymoronic in so far as one

would generally equate lower education to lower incomes.

Fig. 15: LA Times National Poll – Sep 14th

- by education or income

Source: LA Times

Of course other polls will show similar results. Rasmussen Reports on Sep 22nd showed Trump

was at 44%, Clinton at 39%, Johnson 8% and Stein 2%. Last week, the Republican nominee

edged ahead of his Democratic rival 42% to 40% after trailing her by four points the previous

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Rasmussen has Trump

ahead

Trump winning non-

affiliated voter

CNN/ORC has Clinton

ahead

Celebrity vs politician

Boasting image

Stay in the noise

Leave public

week. Trump’s total this week ties his highest ever level of support from two months ago.

Rasmussen wrote, “Trump (76%) and Clinton (75%) earn comparable support from voters in their

own party. Fourteen percent (14%) of Democrats prefer Trump, while 10% of Republicans join

former President George H.W. Bush in supporting Clinton. But Trump has a commanding 45% to

27% lead this week among voters not affiliated with either major political party.”

CNN’s Poll of Polls (CNN/ORC) released on Sep 15th showed Clinton leading by 2 points but

showed Trump’s national gains extended to Florida and Ohio. Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump

stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton.

Perhaps Bob Lefsetz made the most sense of it:

"Celebrities lie and the media repeat these falsehoods ad infinitum without examination.

Donald Trump is a celebrity.

Madonna sells out every show!

No.

Maybe in terms of time, but the truth is Groupon filled a bunch of those seats.

Never mind the pronouncements about sales figures... It's all boasting, all image, all the time. And

you wonder why Donald Trump can get away with the same thing?

Politicians gave way to celebrities long ago, when elected officials sold their souls to lobbyists and

corporations, there was no there there. Celebrities know their identity is everything. And a few

pitfalls can be explained away by drugs and hardship... Celebrities know success is about an arc,

going from somewhere to everywhere, beating the odds in the process. Politicians wait their turn

in order to be nominated by the machine. Last I checked, it was the singers on Sony who were

known by everybody, not Doug Morris.

Everybody knows Donald Trump. And he's employing the number one axiom of celebrity...MAKE

NOISE, STAY IN THE PICTURE, ALL PUBLICITY IS GOOD PUBLICITY, PUBLICITY IS

EVERYTHING!

Leave the public eye and you're forgotten these days. Which is why celebrities are all over social

media, why their publicists plant stories repeated all over the web. It's to keep them top of mind in

the audience's brain.

Hillary is losing the news war. She's playing not to lose. If you don't go for it, you usually don't

succeed. Utilizing old saws like the ground game as if it wasn't 2016 and the entire nation is driven

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eye and forgotten

Clinton losing news war

Clinton attacking

Trump negatively

News cycle is short

Politicians vs celebrities

Trump and US zeitgeist

by what's online. The oldsters are already registered, want to reach the youngsters, play online.

Just ask Buzzfeed and the linkbait legends, that which goes viral, that which generates clicks,

wins today. Substance is secondary to train-wreck quality. Everything's run by algorithm. Respect

the game.

But everyone inside the Beltway believes it's the same as it ever was. Like the record companies

and Napster. They believe the public will do the right thing, that they can shame people into

behaving. But it didn't quell file-trading and Hillary's poll numbers are sinking because... To write

again and again what a nitwit Trump is in the press is missing the point. People believe in

celebrities blindly, they get caught up in the mania, just try tweeting something negative about

Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, you'll be subjected to enough hatred to delete your account.

That's the game Donald Trump is playing.

It doesn't matter that he lies because everybody does. And the news cycle is short. And the key is

to promote a new idea every day. Kind of like Drake releasing mixtapes. The old fart baby boomer

acts take years to polish their turd albums whereas the young acts are constantly releasing new

material, putting up covers on YouTube, they realize we live in an attention economy and attention

is everything.

And if you don't like it...

You've got to give people good jobs so their only alternative is not reality TV. They may not ever

be able to be rich, but they can be famous for a week or two on the tube.

You've got to admit you're flawed, but still stay on message.

The celebrities own this paradigm. When caught acting badly they cry, apologize, go to rehab and

emerge refreshed. Whereas politicians believe they've got to stay the course, they can't show

weakness, they must be wary of gotcha moments. But in a world where your complete life is

online your only choice is to own the gotchas.

So if you want to be famous, and seemingly everybody in America wants to, that's the national

game, you play on all platforms all the time and try to gain traction. And once you get a leg up, you

don't rest on your laurels, you keep taking chances, the well is never dry.

Of course Trump lies. Of course he's uninformed on how to run the country. But if you want to

beat him, you must play his game, not yours. After all, he beat all challengers in the primaries.

Because the Donald is tapped into the American zeitgeist, where it's every man for himself and we

laud those at the top of the totem pole, irrelevant of how they got there.

Taylor Swift had a rich dad. So what. Only the haters care. Her fans couldn't care less.

So you can sit on the sidelines pointing to Trump's faux pas or you can learn from his efforts. You

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Trump doubles

down

Clinton goes silent after

Deplorables

Clinton’s credibility

questioned by own

followers

don't have to lie, but you don't have to be afraid of making mistakes. Trump criticizes Gold Star

parents and doubles down, Hillary labels Trump followers "deplorables" and then goes silent,

allowing the enemy to spin her statement. Today you've got to own who you are, you've got to

show strength, while, ironically, letting weakness emerge. As for hiding anything, like pneumonia,

everything ultimately outs. You create your own narrative. Trump got out in front of the tax issue,

said he was never gonna release his returns, said he was being audited even though his son

recently denied this. It's about being aggressive.

Sure, it would be great if we could appeal to voters by promising our best efforts to lift them up.

But if that was a TV show it'd get cancelled. No, you've got to have drama. You've got to have

story. You have to constantly release new episodes.

Nobody believes anything anymore. The press has been complicit in spreading falsehoods and

too many outlets have agendas. You create your own image. And it must appear authentic to

enough people for you to reach your goal. When Hillary Clinton's credibility is questioned by her

own followers, you know she's in trouble."

Summary The first debate is set to kick off this week on Sept 26th (or Sept 27th at 10am in Japan). With

Trump likely to have his tail up in the polls and Clinton fighting against a wave of health, credibility

and authenticity issues it will be an interesting debate. Perhaps blood sport might be a better way

of describing the contest. Trump talks like someone from a barstool. Clinton will try to remain

polished and composed.

It will not be down to what is said but how it is said. Of course Trump is likely to go for the jugular

and potentially turn the debate into a trial with defendant Hillary Clinton in the witness box. This

will be unlike any presidential debate before. In the past, they have been somewhat Harvard

Debating Society meets where eloquence and delivery are the order of the day. .

Clinton must project warmth. To date she has struggled to do this effectively. I doubt that she will

be able to avoid attacking Trump but the only way to remove wood from his fire is to direct the

debate to her ideals and plans to persuade Americans she is the better choice. Targeting The

Donald’s ‘incidents’ will detract from what voters want and invite the bully to pick off her numerous

issues which she does not need to have raised. The crowd expects it of Trump and when it comes

to slinging mud I’m afraid the reality TV man will win such an argument.

Clinton must also avoid making gender an issue in this debate. Americans don’t care. Should she

raise it during the meet or afterwards she will only expose herself as desperate.

When reading the mood of Americans Trump has been far more effective and ‘fresh’. Clinton has

played her cards very safe which in this election seems a dangerous strategy. Defending a lead

was all she thought that was necessary to win but with this gone she has allowed Trump a much

easier run to the Oval Office.

Let the fireworks begin

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.

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Office Locations

Tokyo Michael Newman

+81-80-4446-8200 mcn@analogica.jp

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