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President Donald Trump: how and what next? · Conclusions Polling errors were small but...
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President Donald Trump:
how and what next?
Dr Tom Packer
Rothermere American Institute
Tuesday 28 March 2017
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Summary
Polling error how/where/why?
Who voted for Trump?
Why did they?
How Popular is Trump?
What to worry about/hope for
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Trump 45.9% Clinton 48%
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How wrong were the polls
Year
Error in last 7
days of
election cycle Year
Error in last 7
days
1980 7.56 % 2000 4.31
1984 1.51 2004 1.44
1988 0.36 2008 0.58
1992 0.86 2012 2.98
1996 3.22 2016 1.07
Average 2.39 %
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Where the errors were
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Where the polls were wrong- white working
class surge for Trump - key to polling error
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Non-college educated whites
overrepresented in the swing states Swing states had an above average share of white
noncollege voters
STATE
TIPPING
-POINT
CHANC
E
WHITE
NON-
COLLEGE
SHARE
Florida 17.6% 40.1% –
Pennsylvania 12.3 49.8 –
Michigan 11.7 52.5 –
North
Carolina11.2 40.4 –
Virginia 6.0 36.7 –
Colorado 6.0 41.6 –
Ohio 5.2 53.3 –
Wisconsin 4.8 57.2 –
Minnesota 3.8 53.7 –
Nevada 3.7 41.9 –
Arizona 2.8 41.6 –
New Mexico 2.8 27.5 –
New
Hampshire2.3 56.5 –
Georgia 2.3 34.2 –
Iowa 1.3 62.0 –
Weighted
avg. of
tipping-point
states
45.3 –
United
States41.6 – 7
The weighted average includes states where the tipping-point chance was below Iowa’s 1.3 percent.
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Trump’s luck
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What made the
popular vote
(almost) a tie?
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Ethnic Revolution that wasn’t
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Pattern stayed the same?
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‘I love the uneducated’ – non-
college educated whites gave
Trump the White House
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Non-college educated whites
key in the swing states
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Trump’s youth vote?
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Why did they?
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Hillary Clinton advert ‘Mirrors’
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Hillary Clinton advertising more
personal less policy orientated
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Pol science models
fundamentals prevailed?
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Was it ‘personality’/emails?
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Trump won on policy not personality: which
candidate has the right temperament?
Clinton Trump
Other/
no
answer
Both do
5%20% 77% 3%
Only
Clinton
does
49%
90% 5% 5%
Only
Trump
does
29%
2% 97% 1%
Neither
does
14%
12% 67% 21%
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Trump won on policy not
personality II TRUMP’S MARGIN AMONG VOTERS WHO RATED …
STATE
ONLY CLINTON
FAVORABLE
ONLY TRUMP
FAVORABLE
BOTH
UNFAVORABLE
Kentucky -98 +100 +46
Georgia -98 +97 +39
Florida -98 +98 +37
Texas -99 +97 +37
Wisconsin -98 +99 +37
N. Carolina -97 +97 +36
Missouri -96 +98 +35
Indiana -97 +92 +32
Ohio -98 +97 +30
S. Carolina -100 +99 +30
Pennsylvania -98 +98 +25
Nevada -97 +95 +23
Iowa -96 +98 +21
Michigan -98 +97 +21
Minnesota -98 +98 +20
Utah -92 +95 +19
Arizona -97 +96 +17
Colorado -97 +96 +13
Virginia -97 +98 +12
New Mexico -94 +96 +10
N. Hampshire -97 +94 +9
Washington -98 +97 +5
New Jersey -93 +96 +3
Maine -97 +99 +2
Oregon -97 +98 0
Average -97 +97 +22 21
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Clinton TrumpOther/ no
answer
Foreign
policy
13%
60% 33% 7%
Immigration
13%33% 64% 3%
Economy
52%52% 41% 7%
Terrorism
18%40% 57% 3%
22
Most important Issue Facing the Country (CNN)
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Immigration advert
‘Two Americas’
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General Election II
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The nearly Presidents?
25
Rick Santorum
Pat Buchanan
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A western backlash –
not made in the US
26
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Values voters remain (mostly)
loyal
27
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Values voters II-why
28
Judge Antonin
Scalia
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Is Trump Popular?
29
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Trump approval
All adults 43% 51%
Voters
(registered
or likely)
47% 49%
—
SURVEY
METHOD
Live caller 42% 52%
Online or
automated47% 48%
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Most unpopular president at this stage
since records started. Will he do/achieve
nothing?
31
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Big shift in people thinking the
country on the ‘right track’
32
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Disapproval of his
‘unique’ style
33
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What to fear/hope for?
34
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People’s fears/hopes of Trump –
Standard GOP Agenda
35
Judge Neil Gorusch
Vice-President Mike Pence
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Protectionism/immigration/
Anti-interventionism?
36
Attorney General
Jeff Sessions
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Fascism/right-wing
authoritarian?
37Stephen Bannon, Assistant to the President
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Corrupt?
38
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Authoritarian/breakdown of
liberal norms?
39
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Incompetent/over his head?
40
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Good news for Britain?
41
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Conclusions
Polling errors were small but disproportionately in the
right states for Trump.
Trump was saved from disaster and outperformed polls
due to gaining enormous support from anti
immigration/anti-free trade white working class voters.
Early signs are unpopular/badly organised
administration, but early days. Trump’s policies
continue to be more popular than he is.
Important to identify what aspect of Trump is most
worrying – different concerns would imply a different
style of opposition. 42
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QUESTIONS?