PRESENTS THE ELECTION GAME - Timecontent.time.com/time/teach/election2000/pdfs/election.pdf ·...

PLUSTIME’S POLLING GUIDE

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ELECTION GAME2000

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ELECTION GAME2000

PRESENTS

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To the Teacher:

Americans have long taken pride in their self-made Presidents. By graduation, nearly every teenagerknows the story of Abraham Lincoln, the Illinois rail splitter who taught himself to read and write bythe light of an oil lantern. Such legends have fueled the dream that nearly any child can grow up tobecome President. But as of 2001, only 42 people have realized that dream—and a quick glance at agallery of past Presidents will tell you that they may not look like students or their classmates. That’swhy it’s more important than ever for students to getinvolved in the political process and to define for themselves the qualifications and attributes they wouldlike to see in U.S. Presidents of the future.

Suppose students wish to pursue the dream. Whatsteps will they have to take in the next 25 or 30 years tobecome a serious candidate for President? What experi-ences, skills and personal traits will qualify them to run?To find out, Time Classroom has prepared The ElectionGame 2000, a series of activities for you to use with yourclass. Even if students never run for a single electiveoffice, by walking in the shoes of a presidential hopeful,they will be better able to evaluate the candidateswho compete for our votes every four years.

As a bonus, we also offer Time’s PollingGuide, a resource teachers and students can use beyond Election 2000. With special thanks topollster John Zogby—a former high school teacherhimself—we have designed articles, activities andresources to help students become attuned to thepower of public opinion in a democracy.

We invite you to let us know how you use TimeMagazine to study Election 2000 and to share anypolling ideas or poll results that your class generates.Write to us at the address above. We might even include some of your ideas in future class resources or on our website at www.timeclassroom.com.

Sincerely,

Keith GartonPublisher, Time School Publishing

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SO YOU WANT TO BE PRESIDENTWhat The Constitution Says....................3What History Says........................................5Presidential Close-Ups.............................6What You Say.................................................8Picking The Right Card............................9What You Say...............................................10

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CAMPAIGN TRACKING KITThe Big Issues...............................................11Paid Political Advertisements.............13The Presidential Debates......................15Mapping the Returns ..............................17Teacher’s Guide.........................................18

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��THE��

ELECTION GAME 2000CONTENTS

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ELECTION GAME 2000CONTENTSIt’s the first election of a new century, and your stu-dents can be part of the excitement. After monthsof battling for their party’s nominations, George W.

Bush emerged as the Republican championand Al Gore as the Democratic

champion. Now, as they square offagainst each other in the historicElection 2000, you can follow theaction with a series of specialactivities prepared by TIME

Classroom and a bonus PollingGuide designed to make students

more aware of the story behind thenumbers so often cited by the media.

Deborah Parks EDITORIAL DIRECTOR

Ben Knuth EDITORIAL CONSULTANT

Kevin Pobst EDITORIAL CONSULTANT

Carol Cashion EDITOR

Bennett Singer EDITOR

Lynn Chrisman GRAPHIC DESIGNER

staff for the election game 2000 and time’s polling guide

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Need More Copies?To purchase additional copies

of this Election Guide, call

1-800-882-0852Sets of 12 are available

for $26.95.

Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use. 3

So You Want To Be PresidentWHAT THE CONSTITUTION SAYS� � � � � � �

In 1794, George Washington said: “The powers of the Executive of the United States are more defined andperhaps better understood than those of almost any other country.” That’s because the founders wrote a jobdescription into our plan of government. Read the help-wanted ad below, comprised of extracts from theConstitution. Then answer the questions on page 4.

Job Description π The President shall be commanderin chief of the army and navy of theUnited States, and of the militia of theseveral states … and he shall havepower to grant reprieves and pardonsfor offenses against the United States,except in cases of impeachment.(Article 2, Sec. 2, Clause 1)

π He shall have power, by and with the advice of the Senate, to maketreaties … and he shall nominate, byand with the advice and consent of theSenate … ambassadors, other publicministers and consuls, judges to theSupreme Court, and all other officers ofthe United States whose appointmentsare not herein otherwise provided for.(Article 2, Sec. 2, Clause 2)

π He shall have the power to fill up allthe vacancies that may happen duringthe recess of the Senate, by grantingcommissions which shall expire at theend of the next session. (Article 2,Sec. 2, Clause 3)

π He shall from time to time give tothe Congress information of the stateof the Union, and recommend to theirconsideration such measures as heshall judge necessary and expedient;he may, on extraordinary occasions,convene both houses, or either ofthem, and in case of disagreementbetween them, with respect to the

time of adjournment, he may adjournthem to such time as he shall thinkproper; he shall receive ambassadorsand other public ministers; he shalltake care that the laws be faithfullyexecuted, and shall commission allthe officers of the United States.(Article 2, Sec. 3)

Qualifications π No person except a natural-borncitizen … shall be eligible to that officewho shall not have attained to the ageof thirty-five years, and been fourteenyears a resident within the UnitedStates. (Article 2, Sec. 1, Clause 5)

π The senators and representatives …and all executive and judicial officers… shall be bound by oath or affir-mation, to support this Constitution;but no religious test shall ever berequired as a qualification to anyoffice or public trust under the UnitedStates. (Article 6, Sec. 3)

Salary π The President shall, at stated times, receive for his services, acompensation, which shall neither be increased nor diminished duringthe period for which he shall havebeen elected, and he shall not receive within that period any otheremolument [valuable gift] from theUnited States, or any of them. (Article 2, Sec. 1, Clause 7)

Term of Contract/Method of Selection π He shall hold the term for fouryears, and, together with the VicePresident, chosen for the same term, be elected. (Article 2, Sec. 1)

π No person shall be elected to theoffice of the President more thantwice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted asPresident for more than two years of a term to which some other personwas elected President shall be electedto the office of President more thanonce. (Twenty-second Amendment)

Employee Agreement π Before he enter on the execution ofhis office, he shall take the followingoath or affirmation: “I do solemnlyswear (or affirm) that I will faithfullyexecute the office of the President ofthe United States, and will to the bestof my ability, preserve, protect anddefend the Constitution of the UnitedStates.” (Article 2, Sec. 1, Clause 8)

Help Wanted: President of the United States

4 Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

1. What types of tasks did the founders expect the President to perform?

2. Suppose you applied for the job of President. What three qualifications would you need?

3. What qualification could not be used to judge your application for President?

4. How would you be paid?

5. Who would do the hiring?

6. How long could you expect to hold the job of President?

7. What part of the Constitution limits how long you may hold your job?

8. If hired, what agreement would your employers expect you to make?


The founders allowed Americans to shape the presidency by leaving the qualifications vague. (The Constitutionsets only three requirements.) By casting their ballots, voters over the past two centuries have establishedcertain unwritten qualifications for the office. You may not agree with all these qualifications. But to see whatstepping stones have traditionally led to the presidency, study the profiles in the chart entitled “PresidentialClose-Ups” on pages 6 and 7. Then complete the following exercises.

Forming Generalizations About the Presidents

8. Based on your answers to the preceding questions, how would you describe the typical American President?

Making Ethical Judgments

9. What unwritten qualifications for President do you think should be kept in the 21st century?

10. What unwritten qualifications would you like to see eliminated or added by 2020?

Comparing Past Presidents1. Gendera. How many Presidents have been men?b. How many have been women?

2. Educationa. How many Presidents have attended

college?b. How many have not?

3. Military Servicea. How many Presidents have served

in the military?b. How many have not?

4. Political Experiencea. How many Presidents have been elected

to Congress?b. How many Presidents have been

elected governor?c. How many Presidents have been neither

a governor nor a member of Congress?

5. Religiona. How many Presidents have been Protestants?b. How many have been Roman Catholics?c. How many have been non-Christians?d. How many have belonged to no specific

church at all?

6. Ethnicitya. How many Presidents have been of northern

or western European ancestry?b. How many have been of southern or eastern

European ancestry?c. How many have been of non-European

ancestry?

7. Early Careera. How many Presidents have worked

as lawyers?b. How many have worked as professors or

teachers?c. How many have worked as diplomats?d. How many worked as professional soldiers?

So You Want To Be PresidentWHAT HISTORY SAYS� � � � � � � �

President George Washington(1789-1797)

John Adams*(1797-1801)

Thomas Jefferson*(1801-1809)

James Madison(1809-1817)

James Monroe(1817-1825)

John Quincy Adams(1825-1829)

Andrew Jackson(1829-1837)

Martin Van Buren*(1837-1841)

William Henry Harrison (1841)

John Tyler*§(1841-1845)

James Polk(1845-1849)

Zachary Taylor(1849-1850)

Millard Fillmore*§(1850-1853)

Franklin Pierce(1853-1857)

James Buchanan(1857-1861)

Abraham Lincoln(1861-1865)

Andrew Johnson*§(1865-1869)

Ulysses S. Grant(1869-1877)

Rutherford B. Hayes(1877-1881)

James A. Garfield(1881)

Chester A. Arthur*§(1881-1885)

Grover Cleveland(1885-1889/1893-1897)

GenderM

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

ElectedGovernor

No

No

Yes (VA)

No

Yes (VA)

No

No

Yes (NY)

No

Yes (VA)

Yes (TN)

No

No

No

No

No

Yes (TN)

No

Yes (OH)

No

No

Yes (NY)

Early Career

surveyor, planter

teacher, lawyer,diplomat

writer, inventor,lawyer, diplomat

lawyer

lawyer, writer,diplomat

lawyer, diplomat

race horse owner,soldier

lawyer, diplomat

soldier, diplomat

lawyer

lawyer

planter, soldier

teacher, lawyer

teacher, lawyer,diplomat

lawyer, diplomat

storekeeper, lawyer

tailor

soldier

lawyer

lawyer, collegepresident, preacher

teacher, lawyer

teacher, lawyer, mayor

CollegeNo

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

ReligionProtestant

Protestant

No SpecificChurch

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

No SpecificChurch

No SpecificChurch

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

EthnicityEnglish

English

Welsh

English

Scotch

English

Scotch-Irish

Dutch

English

English

Scotch-Irish

English

English

English

Scotch-Irish

English

English

Scotch-Irish

Scotch

English

Scotch-Irish

English, Irish

MilitaryService

Yes

No

No

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Elected toCongress

Yes

No

No

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Presidential Close-Ups, 1789–2001



*Served as Vice President. §Completed the term of an elected President.

Sources: Presidential Elections and Other Cool Facts, Sly Sobel et al. (Barrons, 2000). Presidents of the United States (Media Materials, Inc., 1988). The World Almanac of Presidential Facts (World Almanac Education, 1992).

Presidential Close-Ups, 1789–2001President Benjamin Harrison(1889-1893)

William McKinley(1897-1901)

Theodore Roosevelt*§(1901-1909)

William Howard Taft(1909-1913)

Woodrow Wilson(1913-1921)

Warren G. Harding(1921-1923)

Calvin Coolidge*§(1923-1929)

Herbert Hoover(1929-1933)

Franklin D. Roosevelt(1933-1945)

Harry S Truman*§ (1945-1953)

Dwight D. Eisenhower(1953-1961)

John F. Kennedy(1961-1963)

Lyndon B. Johnson*§(1963-1969)

Richard M. Nixon(1969-1974)

Gerald R. Ford*§(1974-1977)

Jimmy Carter(1977-1981)

Ronald Reagan(1981-1989)

George Bush(1989-1993)

William J. Clinton(1993-2001)

GenderM

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

ElectedGovernor

No

Yes (OH)

Yes(NY)

No

Yes(NJ)

No

Yes (MA)

No

Yes(NY)

No

No

No

No

No

No

Yes (GA)

Yes (CA)

No

Yes (AR)

Early Careerlawyer

teacher, lawyer

writer, rancher

lawyer, judge,diplomat

professor, collegepresident, lawyer

newspaper editor

lawyer

engineer, diplomat

lawyer

bank clerk, haberdasher

soldier

reporter

rancher, teacher

lawyer

lawyer

naval officer, farmer

radio announcer,actor

oilman, diplomat

law professor

CollegeYes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

ReligionProtestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

RomanCatholic

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

Protestant

EthnicityEnglish

Scotch-Irish

Dutch

English

Scotch-Irish

English,Dutch

English

Swiss-German

Dutch

English,Scotch-Irish

Swiss-German

Irish



English

English

English, Irish

English

English, Irish

MilitaryService

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

No

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Elected toCongress

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Yes

No

No

No

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

What do you think the standards and criteria shouldbe for selecting the Presidents who will lead ourcountry in the 21st century? Decide by completingthe following two activities.

Playing the Right Card Your teacher will give youthe profiles of nine candidates. To focus your attentionon their qualifications, the names of these people havebeen omitted from the cards. You may guesssome of their identities on your own, buttry not to let prior impressionsinfluence your opinion. Along withsome of your classmates, use thefollowing steps to decide whichof these candidates you wouldback in the next presidentialelection.

• Step One Make sure each ofthe candidates meets the threebasic constitutional requirementsfor President.

• Step Two Rate the candidates in terms oftheir electability—that is, their appeal to voters.Arrange the nine cards on a continuum from leastelectable to most electable. Record the order inwhich you arranged the cards, and write down thecriteria that you used to judge the candidates.

• Step Three Set aside established conceptions ofwho can become President. Which candidate do youthink is best suited to lead the nation in the centuryahead? (You may want to do some outside researchon these topics: the demographic makeup of thecountry based on the 2000 census, current problemsfacing the nation, the current global situation, and soon.) Arrange the nine cards on a continuum fromleast suited to best suited. Record the order in whichyou arranged the cards, and write down the criteria

that you used to judge the candidates. Were thestandards the same as in Step Two, or did youintroduce some new qualities? Why or why not?

• Step Four Reach a consensus on the candidate thatyour group would back in the next election. Wouldyou go with the most electable candidate? Or wouldyou push forward some “dark horse,” a long-shotcandidate who might help rewrite the unofficial

qualifications for President? Be prepared todefend your decision.

Extra Credit Figure out theidentity of each of the nine candi-dates in the cards. (Your teacherwill confirm your answers.) Pickone of the long shots, and givehim or her a shot at winning thepresidency in 2000. Design a

campaign slogan, brochures anda platform that you think will claim

the “glittering prize,” BenjaminHarrison’s nickname for the presi-

dency. Be sure to highlight the new qual-ities that you want voters to value in a President.

Help Wanted: President of the United StatesIn 2000, when the job of President once again openedup, two of the candidates on the cards—politicalinsiders Al Gore and George W. Bush—applied for the job. What do voters need to know to make whatexecutive recruiters call a “good hire”? Decide bycompleting the “Help Wanted” activity given to youby your teacher. Then discuss: whom would you hire?If you wanted to run for President in the 2020s, whatqualities would you seek to develop? What candidateswould you work to elect in the years ahead? Consideryour answer to this last question carefully. Elections,as you have learned, are the most effective tools thatwe have for rewriting the job description of President.

So You Want To Be PresidentWHATYOU SAY� � � � � � � � � � � �


Candidate 2Born April 13, 1933

Birthplace Alburn, California

Religion no organized religious affiliation

Education B.A. San Jose State, physical education

Military Experience noncombat duty U.S. Airforce

Work Experience artist; captain of1964 U.S. Olympic Judo team; statesenator; U.S. Representative; U.S. Senator;chairperson, Indian Affairs Committee

Personal Data married, two children

Candidate 3Born March 28, 1953

Birthplace Yabucoa, Puerto Rico

Religion Roman Catholic

Education B.A. University of PuertoRico, political science; M.A. New YorkUniversity, political science

Military Experience none

Work Experience professor, citycouncil member, secretary of Departmentof Puerto Rican Affairs, U.S. Represen-tative, ranking Democrat on the HouseSmall Business Committee

Personal Data divorced, no children


Birthplace El Paso, Texas

Religion Protestant

Education B.A. and J.D. StanfordUniversity, law


Work Experience lawyer, assistantstate attorney general, advisor toSalvation Army, member of U.S.Supreme Court


Candidate 5Born July 6, 1946

Birthplace New Haven, Connecticut

Religion Protestant

Education B.A. Yale University; MBAHarvard Business School

Military Experience pilot for TexasAir National Guard

Work Experience founder of gas andoil company, advisor for 1988 Repub-lican presidential campaign, managinggeneral partner of Texas Rangers baseball franchise, state governor



Birthplace Washington, D.C.

Religion Protestant

Education B.A. Harvard University;attended Vanderbilt Divinity School andVanderbilt Law School

Military Experience U.S. Army,including service in Vietnam

Work Experience reporter, U.S.Representative, U.S. Senator, Vice President of the United States

Personal Data married, four children

Candidate 6Born April 5, 1937

Birthplace Harlem, New York

Religion Protestant

Education B.A. City College of NewYork, geology

Military Experience combat dutyin U.S. Army; wounded in action

Work Experience National SecurityAdvisor, career soldier and general,Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff

Personal Data married, three children

Candidate 7Born June 22, 1933

Birthplace San Francisco, California

Religion Jewish

Education B.A. Stanford University


Work Experience member of stateparole board; member of city board ofsupervisors; city mayor; U.S. Senator;member of three Senate committees,including the Judiciary Committee

Personal Data married, four children

Candidate 9Born June 6, 1939

Birthplace Bennettsville, South Carolina

Religion Protestant

Education B.A. Spelman College,Russian Studies (valedictorian); J.D. YaleUniversity, law; recipient of more than 20honorary degrees


Work Experience lawyer, civil rightsworker, author, founder/director of children’s advocacy organization


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Candidate 1Born September 7, 1924

Birthplace Honolulu, Hawaii

Religion Protestant

Education B.A. University of Hawaii,government and economics; J.D. GeorgeWashington University, law

Military Experience combat dutyU.S. Army; Distinguished Service Cross,Bronze Star, Purple Heart

Work Experience U.S. Represen-tative; U.S. Senator; Chairperson, SenateSelect Committee on Intelligence

Personal Data married, one child



As the mock ad at right implies, it’s the voters whohire and employ the ceo of our nation. Ideally, theselection process should follow the three basic stepsused by most executive recruiters.• First, draw up a list of “specs,” or duties, for the job.• Second, determine the indicators, or types of experi-

ences, that show whether a candidate can success-fully fulfill these duties.

• Third, research the résumé and background of eachapplicant to see if she or he possesses these experiences.

Use the same steps to evaluate the two top candidatesfor the ceo position opening up in January 2001. Thechart on this page will help you to organize infor-mation. Some job specs have been provided, but you

may add others. We’ve also added a column that putsyou in the race for 2028. What experiences would you,a serious contender for President, hope to have on yourrésumé? If you need more room to complete yourchart, copy it onto a large piece of paper.

So You Want To Be President� � � � � � � � � � � �

J O B S P E C SChief of State (represents and symbolizes the U.S.)

Chief Executive (enforces federal laws,supervises various executive departmentsand agencies, appoints federal judges)

Chief Legislator (sponsors majorlegislative packages, approves or vetoes bills passed by Congress)

Chief Diplomat(negotiates treaties)

Chief Financial Officer (submitsbudgets to Congress, monitorseconomic progress)

Commander-in-Chief (orders military units into battle)

Chief Party Leader (campaigns forother party members)

Chief Visionary (tries to influence peopleto follow an agenda for the future)

Indicators of Future Performance Gore Experiences Bush Experiences

E L E C T I O N 2 0 2 8Your Experiences

E L E C T I O N 2 0 0 0

WHATYOU SAYHELP WANTED: PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICAA large, diverse, powerful capitalist democracy, in the midst ofdramatic technological and social change, seeks a chief executiveofficer (CEO). Must be at least 35 years old, native born, and long-term resident. Frequent travel and evening/weekend work required.Annual salary of $200,000. Benefits include housing, pension,private jet, and generous expense account. Interested appli-cants should contact U.S. voters by November 7, 2000.

“What I want to get done is what

the people desire to have done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.” —

Abraham Lincoln π Perhaps it is no surprise that polling developed in a nation where

government derives its power from “the consent of the governed.” From the start, political

leaders in the United States recognized the need for some means to determine what the people

were thinking and saying. So did the many businesses that flourished under the nation’s free-

market system. π From the United States, the practice of polling reached

around the world. However, polling, like public opinion itself, is usually

most powerful in democratic societies that protect freedom of commu-

nication and expression. π Today polls are very much a part of our

everyday life, but quantity does not necessarily mean quality. In a free

market, nearly anybody can sell polling services at a competitive price.

And because of constitutional safeguards of freedom of speech and the

press, there are few restrictions on the wording of questions or the release

of survey data. π As a result, you

need to learn to become an informed

reader, user and participant in polls.

Some polls result in meaningful data;

others mean nothing at all. In this polling guide,

you’ll find the tools to distinguish valid from invalid

survey data and to conduct polls yourself. As you’ll

discover, its use extends far beyond analyzing the

political polls published during elections. Pick up

this guide the next time you click your mouse in an

“instant” Internet poll. π

AN EVERYDAY REFERENCE � � �

Polls: It’s a Matter of Opinion..................2Polling: An Insider’s View..........................6Poll-Driven News......................................7Pollsters.com..........................................8Political Poll Vaulting............................10Measuring Public Opinion......................11

CONTENTS

TIME’S POLLING GUIDE

Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

re you between the ages of 6 and 21?Then there’s a good chance that you use acomputer, shop on the Web and talk to yourfriends by cell phone or Instant Messaging.You probably love hip-hop, extreme sports,

Cuban shirts and anything with polka dots. Like mostof your friends, you listen to your parents, dream ofowning your own business, and think your gener-ation just might change the world.

Who says? The pollsters who have made it theirbusiness to survey the more than 77.6 million kids,teenagers and young adults who make up GenerationY—people born between 1979 and 1994. In the yearsahead, the “Gen-Yers” will have the numbers toinfluence everything from the marketplace to theballot box. Pollsters—and the businesses and politi-cians who hire them—are already looking for cluesabout how you and your friends might flex youreconomic and political muscle.

In this article and the rest of Time’s polling guide,you will get a chance to meet the pollsters—theprofessionals who earn a living by finding out whatpeople think or do. You will also have the opportunityto act as a pollster yourself, conducting a survey inyour own school or community.

How do you feel?Pollsters have their fingers on the popular pulse. They measurepublic opinion—the attitudes or ideas held by a

significant number of people about aspecific subject or issue. Because oftheir work, many pollsters refer to themselves as“public opinion analysts.”

Through the use of numerical surveys, pollstersidentify the way people feel or act at a particularpoint in time. However, they know better than mostof us that people change their minds. So they viewany poll as a snapshot of public opinion at themoment the poll was taken. A new poll, taken later,can present an entirely different picture.

Why are you asking me? As anypollster would tell you, “You can’t survey the wholeuniverse.” In poll-talk, a universe is all the peoplewho make up the group that is to be studied, such asteenagers in Generation Y. So how did pollstersdiscover that most Gen-Y teens like e-mail betterthan snail mail? They selected what is known as arepresentative sample—a group small enough tosurvey but similar in makeup to the larger group(universe) to which they belong.

Pollsters pick members of a representative samplethrough a process known as random sampling, atechnique in which everyone in a universe has anequal chance of being selected. In the past, pollsterschose addresses at random, mailed out surveys, oreven sent pollsters to interview people in person.Today, however, 95 percent of all households havetelephones. So most pollsters use “random-digit

TIME’SPOLLINGGUIDE� � � � � �

Polls:It’s a Matter of OpinionA

“RIGOROUS SAMPLING IS THESCIENCE OF POLLING; THE CRAFTING OF MEANINGFUL QUESTIONS IS ITS ART.”

— Michael Kagay, editor of News Surveys, The New York Times

2

3

Harry S Truman had the last laugh in the 1948election. Ever since the 1930s, before every presi-dential and congressional election, Newsweekmagazine had taken a poll of 50 of the nation’s toppolitical reporters. The group had correctly predictedthe winner every single year and had come even closer than the national polls in predicting the percentages ofvictories. In 1948, the journalists handed the electionto Thomas E. Dewey by a margin of 50 to 0.

When an aide handed the results of the poll toPresident Truman, he grinned and said: “Forget it,they’re always wrong.” Truman knew what pollstersknow today—you have to get a representative samplefor accuracy. The magazine had polled journalists, not registered voters. As the embarrassing headlineabove shows, Truman was right. The blunderconvinced political pollsters to adopt the randomsampling methods widely used today. π

Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

dialing,” a method in which computers generate calllists based upon household exchanges (the first threedigits in a phone number).

A sample does not have to be as big as you mightimagine. As pollsters are quick to point out, a chef doesnot have to drink a whole pot of soup to find out if it’ssalty. A taste, or sample, will do. The same holds truefor a poll. In fact, the larger a universe, the better thechance for picking a small but representative group ofpeople. In national surveys, for example, pollsters aimfor 1,200 to 1,500 successful responses. In statewidepolls, they look for 600 to 1,200 responses.

Of course, sampling isn’t perfect. Answeringmachines can complicate the sampling process. So

can popular resentment of telemar-keting, or use of the telephone to selleverything from car insurance to creditcards to political candidates.

To estimate how much sampleresults may differ from the opinions ofthe population under study, pollstersuse a statistical formula to calculate a margin oferror (MoE). In most carefully conducted nationalsurveys, the margin of error, or “sampling error,” isusually plus or minus 3 percentage points. If a pollshows that 77 percent of teens value “having people’srespect,” with an MoE of 3 percent, then between 74and 80 percent of teens hold this value.


WHOOPS!In 1948, Harry Trumandefied pollsters’predictions

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That’s a good question When it comesto questions, pollsters pick their words as carefully asthey pick their sample. Poorly worded questions, theuse of loaded words, or even the order in which ques-tions are asked can influence the responses peoplegive. To get accurate answers, pollsters must writequestions in a neutral, balanced and fair way.

Pollsters give similar thought to the responsesoffered in multi-choice questions. They not onlyword answers carefully, but they often vary the orderof answers from caller to caller. Research indicatesthat people may give special meaning to whateveroption comes first and that they may remember thelast option more clearly. To prevent a pattern fromdeveloping, pollsters present the options randomly.

Accurate responses also depend upon the abilityand willingness of people to answer the questions inthe first place. Interviewers use screening questionsto ensure that respondents belong to their sample. In polling Gen-Y teens, for example, they might say:“Hello. I’m conducting a survey of teenagers for Time Magazine. Could I speak with someone in yourhome between the ages of 13 to 19?”

If no teenagers live at the home or if the answer is “no,” the interviewer tries another random number.Once a respondent does agree to take the survey, the work of polling begins. The interviewer asks the questions in a pleasant but neutral tone, recordsthe answers, and, last but not least, thanks therespondent. If that respondent is you, don’t besurprised if you see your answers or opinionsrepeated in descriptions of Gen-Y teens like the onesat the start of this article.

Just the FAQs Thefollowing are some frequently askedquestions (faqs) about polls. For morequestions and answers, see theinterview with pollster John Zogby on page 6.

How did polls get their start?The earliest counterparts to modern opinion polls aretraced back to 1824. At that time, many states left theselection of presidential electors up to state legis-lators. To prove how out of touch legislators werewith the voters, several newspapers and magazinesconducted “straw polls.” (The name “straw polls” mayhave come from the phrase “tossing straws to thewind.”) By asking people to clip out “straw ballots”and mail them in, journalists were tossing theelection to the people. The straw polls showed whatstate legislators did not yet realize in 1824—thepeople wanted Andrew Jackson as President.

Who was the first President to use a pollster?Because we live in a democracy, politicians havealways been interested in the moods and opinions ofthe people. After all, they’re the ones who elect politi-cians. Probably the first President to hire an informalpollster was George Washington. He paid a friend tomingle among the “ordinary folks” to find out whatthey thought of his presidency. However, FranklinRoosevelt was the first President to use a “scientific”pollster. He choose Elmo Roper, a pioneer in statis-tical surveys, to use modern techniques to find outwhat people thought.


“AS I SEE IT, THE TECHNIQUE OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH MAY BE CAPABLE OF BEINGUSED TO EFFECT THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTION TO THEDEMOCRATIC PROCESS SINCE THE SECRET BALLOT.”—Elmo Roper, research director of Fortune’s Surveys of Public Opinion

5Copyright ©2000 Time School Publishing. Permission granted to reproduce for classroom use.

Who conducts most of the polls today?Almost anyone can conduct a straw poll. Opinionscan be registered by call-ins, write-ins, or even theclick of a mouse. However, these “self-selected” pollsare not very accurate. They measure the opinion ofpeople who choose to respond. As a result, theyalways have what is referred to as a “biased sample.”

The work of scientific polling belongs to profes-sional polling organizations or to academic and non-profit research centers such as the Pew ResearchCenter for the People and the Press. Major newspapers and networks—for example, Time/cnn, The New York Times/cbs, and abc News/WashingtonPost—constantly conduct polls so that they can report the latest findings revealed in responses to questionsabout current issues.

Do people lie to pollsters?Most pollsters say a majority of people do not lie onsurveys because there is no clear incentive to do so.Nonetheless, some pollsters suspect that respondentshesitate to give answers that they think may be castin a bad light. For example, in the New York Citymayoral campaign of 1989 involving African-American candidate David Dinkins, and in theVirginia gubernatorial race of the same year involvingAfrican-American candidate Douglas Wilder, therewas evidence that voters were less likely than usual tobe candid in reporting their choices because theyrisked the appearance of voting based on racial preferences.

Who pays for most of the polling that is done in the United States?When people hear the word “polls,” theytend to think of political surveys. But by far thebiggest users of public opinion research are businessand industry. Companies attempt to measure every-thing from the effects of advertising, to controlledtests of new products, to efforts to improve theirpublic image.

Can pollsters be trusted? Generally, yes. An organization’s credibility dependsupon the accuracy of its results. Clients pay profes-sional pollsters to supply them with reliable infor-mation so that they can make informed decisions.That does not mean, however, that polls do not havetheir flaws or that people should not study them care-fully. Readers owe it to themselves to look at pollswith a critical eye. They should ask questions:π What is the purpose of this poll?π Who sponsored the study?π Who was interviewed?π How large was the sample?π How was the sample chosen?π What is the margin of error?π What questions did interviewers ask and in what

order did they ask them?π How was the survey conducted?π What is the track record of the group conducting

the survey?π Was anything going on in the nation or world that

might have influenced results?


“MORE AMERICANS AREFOOLED BY POLL RESULTSTHAN GET TRICKED BY INTEREST RATES.”—Christopher Matthews, syndicated columnist and author of Hardball: How Politics Is Played


An Interview with John ZogbyJohn Zogby, an independent pollster based in Utica, NewYork, had been in the polling business only since 1985 whenhe bewildered other pollsters with his dead-on forecasts inthe 1996 presidential race. Since that time, the firm of ZogbyInternational has gone on to forecast correctly the outcomesin more than a dozen elections, including the 2000 presi-dential race in Mexico. To get an insider’s view of polling, we invited John Zogby to talk with Time Classroom. Hereare some excerpts from the interview.

TC: You were once a high school and college teacher. What ledyou to become a pollster?JZ: I have always been fascinated by the whole concept ofpublic opinion and the fact that whether we live in ademocracy or the most despotic tyranny, public opinionstill plays a role. Even the worst tyrant can’t afford to becontemptuous of the public.

TC: Suppose you were still a teacher. What kind of training wouldyou tell students to get if they wanted to be a pollster?JZ: I love to tell kids this, because I’m fairly successful now, but I got a D in statistics! So it’s not the ultimateprerequisite, although it certainly doesn’t hurt. I knowstatistics, and I’m pretty good at it—and smart enough tohire people who are even better.

Here’s what I recommend to students all the time.Number one, get a solid social science background, any mix of sociology, psychology, economics and politicalscience. Number two, read novels. Novels give you theinsight into the depths of human character and emotionsbetter than anything else. Ultimately, [a pollster] measurespeople. So you must understand people to know just what all those statistics mean.

TC: When students see an ad on TV or in a magazine, is pollingusually attached to it?JZ: You can be absolutely certain that polling is behind it.Although we do traditional political surveys, the bulk of ourbusiness is really consumer market research.

TC: Here’s a popular caricature: Political candidates use polls todecide their position on issues. Do polls have that kind of influence?JZ: I know that’s what many people think. But I believethey would be surprised to learn that most politicians reallyuse polls for what they were designed to do—indicate

popular feeling on an issue or policy. Polls generally confirm what the politiciansalready know or lead them to do more research before acting.

TC: What are the most important technological changes sincethe development of scientific polling in the 1930s?JZ: What revolutionized the business were two inventions.One was the telephone and its proliferation so that 95-96%of all households have them. The other was the homecomputer. The computer allowed us to do polls faster, efficiently, and, in many ways, more accurately.

TC: How do you feel about the current debate over the use of theInternet to poll?JZ: We are among the polling firms that are heavily intoresearch and development on the use of the Internet. We are collecting a database of pre-screened respondentsand creating a large enough database so that we can drawrepresentative panels from the larger database. And then wee-mail surveys to this group. But, as I said, we are still in theresearch and development phase, so we use a telephone-based survey to confirm the results.

TC: Are the critics of Internet polls right when they say that thisform of surveying might produce headlines similar to the “DeweyDefeats Truman” headlines of the 1948 election?JZ: That’s a good question. Let me put it this way. TheInternet will dominate our field [public opinion research]sooner rather than later. So we want to be prepared. . . . I believe we will be able to work out the kinks—ensureprivacy, prevent people from voting twice, and otherobstacles to good research. I’m also of the belief that theInternet, starting in the United States and then spreadingto other parts of the world, will one day be as universal asthe telephone. We’re not there yet, but we need to go theextra mile and be ready when that day comes. Here’ssomething else. I foresee the blending of history with thefuture, when people’s faces appear on computer screens asthey talk to each other. Maybe we’re actually bringing backthe traditional face-to-face interview.

TC: One last question. You’re earning a great deal of fame forthe accuracy of your political predictions. Do you have somesecret ingredient for your success or you’re not telling?JZ: (Laughter) I’m not telling. But here’s a clue: samplingis everything.


Polling: An Insider’s View


Statistics from pollsshow up in the newsmedia all the time. But what dothey mean? Maybe nothing if thesurvey was not conducted correctly.As a result, you need to evaluate thepoll data found in news reports andadvertisements carefully todetermine whether or not it’sreliable. To practice interpretingpoll-driven news, read the pressrelease on this page. Then answerthe questions that follow.

Questions1. What is the subject of the pressrelease?

2. What poll data are used to supportthe claim made in the headline?

3. Who conducted the poll?

4. What was the universe surveyed?

5. How many people were interviewed, and how were theyselected?

6. Based on the margin of error,how many people in the populationstudied prefer suvs?

7. Why do you think the telephoneinterviewers did not offer respon-dents “not sure” as a choice?

8. Suppose these figures had comefrom a self-selected Internet poll.Would they be as reliable? Explain.


Poll-Driven News: It’s Worth EvaluatingP U B L I C O P I N I O N H E A D L I N E S

Wednesday July 5, 2000, 3:29 PM ET

Sport Utility Vehicles Are Today’s Rage for the RoadUTICA, N.Y. (Reuters/Zogby) — A red-hot convertible or a

pristine luxury car no longer is the dream vehicle for most Amer-

icans. A recent Zogby America survey of 1,264 adults nationwide*

reveals that sports utility vehicles (SUVs) have become the

favorite driving choice.

SUVs were chosen by 35% of Americans as the most popular

choice if they had the option of choosing any vehicle. Second on

the list were sedans with 24.3%. Another 20% wanted a sports car.

At the same time, 14.4% wanted a van, and 4.4% preferred a

station wagon.

Young adults between the ages of 18-29 overwhelmingly picked

sport utility vehicles (62%), while more than half (56%) of

Americans over the age of 65 preferred a sedan. Sedans were

also more popular among women (26%) than men (23%),

while 40% of men favored SUVs and 22% liked sports cars.

Thirty percent of women also wanted an SUV.

Married and single people agree that SUVs were the most desired

automobile, but they split on other favorite vehicles. Married

couples next preferred sedans at 26%, then vans (18%), and

sports cars (15%). Single Americans favored a sports car (30%)

and then sedans (18%).

What we asked: If you had the option to choose any type of car,

which of the following would you choose?

1. SUV 4. Van

2. Sports car 5. Station wagon

3. Sedan 6. Not sure (Do not read)

*Respondents randomly selected by region using CATI

(Computer Aided Telephone Interview) software; MoE ±3%.

# # # # # # # # # # # # # # #

Adapted and used with permission of Zogby International, Utica, NY.


Will online polling destroy the survey business? Are pollsters worried? Not yet. But most of them have plenty to say—pro and con—about the subject.Some pollsters believe accurate surveys can still beproduced, even though polls administered over theInternet admittedly only reach a select group ofpeople—those with computers. Others, like theGallup Organization, refuse to throw the telephonebook out the window until use of the Internetbecomes more widespread. Still others are taking await-and-see attitude, using a combination of tele-phone and Internet polls.

Explore the debate over Internet polls yourself byresearching the pros and cons of the three main typesof online surveys listed in the following table. Findout who’s using them (one name has already beenlisted) and how pollsters feel about each type of poll.Record information in the table or copy the tableonto a larger piece of paper. Add your own pro andcon arguments as well.

To find articles on this topic, use the words“polling,” “online polls,” or “Internet polls” to searchthe Web or the more traditional Reader’s Guide toPeriodical Literature. You might also check websites


Self-selected respondents reply to a survey posted on a website; an online straw poll.

1. Net Votes

Poll of known Internet usersrecruited through a variety ofInternet sources. “Demo-graphically balanced”samples,or panels, are chosen eachmonth and surveyed.

1. Harris Interactive

Samples chosen by randomdigital phone dialing, thenequipped with Internet-accessdevices so they can respond toWeb-based surveys.

1. InterSurvey

“Instant” Internet Polls

Online Survey Panels

Combination Telephone/Online Sample

POLLSTERS.COM<Polling the Mouse Potatoes*>

Description

WHO’S USING IT

PROS

CONS

*New slang for people who spend a lot of time at the computer; similar to “couch potato.”


maintained by polling organizations and/or the media. (A list of polling sites has been supplied.) When you have completed your research, compare your findings with those of your classmates.

Compile a complete list of pros and cons for each type of poll. Then answer these questions.

Questions1. Which of the three types of polls do you think produces the most accurate results? Explain.

2. Which of the three types of polls do you think produces the least accurate results? Explain.

3. Which would you trust more—a traditional poll conducted by telephone or one of the polls in the table? Explain.

4. Humphrey Taylor of Harris Interactive says, “We believe online research will be a huge part of the surveyresearch industry’s future.” Do you agree? If you were an investor, would you buy stock in Harris Interactive?Why or why not?


ABC News Poll Vaulthttp://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/pollvault/pollvault.html

Alliance for Better Campaignswww.bettercampaigns.org

American Association for Public Opinion Researchwww.aapor.org

CBS News Pollshttp://cbsnews.cbs.com/now/section/0,1636,215-412,00.shtml

Center on Policy Attitudeswww.policyattitudes.org

Eagleton Institute ofPolitics/Center for Public Interest Pollinghttp://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu

The Gallup Organizationwww.gallup.com

Harris Poll Onlinehttp://vr.harrispollonline.com

InterSurveywww.intersurvey.com

Los Angeles Times Pollswww.latimes.com/news/timespoll

Marist College Institute for Public Opinionwww.mipo.marist.edu

National Council on Public Pollswww.ncpp.org

NetVoteswww.netvotes.com

The New York Timeswww.nytimes.com

Opinion Dynamics Corporationwww.opiniondynamics.com

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Presswww.people-press.org

PollingReport.comwww.pollingreport.com

The Roper Center for Public Opinion Researchwww.ropercenter.uconn.edu

TIME Magazinewww.time.com

USA Today/CNN/Gallup Pollswww.usatoday.com/news/polldex.htm

The Washington Postwww.washingtonpost.com

Zogby Internationalwww.zogby.com

“If you want to survey people who do not have computers orwho are not online, you cannot do that online.” Warren J. Mitofsky, President

of Mitofsky International

“This is an unstoppable train. Those who don’t get on board run the risk of being left farbehind.” Humphrey Taylor, Chairman of Harris Interactive,

formerly Louis Harris & Associates


How high do politicians jumpwhen they read the polls?That depends on whom youask and the kind of poll thatyou are talking about (seebelow). Critics say that pollshave an undue influence onthe policies and positionsadopted by politicians, especially during elections.Supporters say polling allowselected officials to stay intouch with the people theyrepresent. Analyze this issuefor yourself by completing thefollowing exercises.

Questions1. What type of political poll forms the subject of this cartoon?2. What is the cartoonist’s opinion of how politicians use these polls?3. How does the cartoonist get this message across? 4. Suppose you wanted to poll people in your community to find out whether they agreed with the cartooniston this issue. How would you word your question and responses?

Bonus Activity: Have a classmate review your question and responses. Then use them to conduct a poll,following suggestions in this polling guide.

� � � � TYPES OF POLITICAL POLLS � � � �

π benchmark polls—polls taken at the beginning of a campaign to provide a baseline against which thecampaign’s effectiveness can be measured.

π tracking and brushfire polls—quick surveys done in the last few weeks of a campaign to determinehow voters are reacting to the positions and messages of candidates.

π push polls—polls designed specifically to influence the opinion of voters during the last few weeks of acampaign. Professional pollsters and the American Association for Public Opinion Research (aapor)consider push polls unethical.

π exit polls—polls designed to give an early indication of the results of an election by asking people howthey voted as they leave the election booth. Many critics claim exits polls influence voter behavior.


Political Poll Vaulting

By permission of Mike Luckovich and Creators Syndicate


One of the best ways to become an informeduser of polls is to design, conduct and evaluateyour own poll. You may not be able to produce a computer-generated sample like those used by professional polling

organizations. But you can still prepare a reasonably accurate survey based on suggested steps that have beentested by students all across the country.

Familiarize yourself with poll resultsfrom several different sources. A good place to start isPollingReport.com. This independent, nonpartisanorganization maintains an online journal of recentpolls conducted by a variety of organizations andmembers of the media. Its website can be found athttp://www.pollingreport.com

Set your standards high.Commit yourself to three basic polling principles:1. Generate the best sample possible.2. Word and sequence questions to eliminate asmuch bias as possible.3. Conduct the poll under conditions that maximizereliability. It may be easier to poll friends and rela-tives, but you will get richer and more accurateresults from a random, anonymous sampling of yourcommunity.

Write forced-response questions(also known as closed-ended questions). Phrase ques-tions so respondents must make choices that are easyto tabulate. Do not slant the questions in any way, andmake sure you do not use any loaded words. Evendetails such as a person’s title can influence arespondent’s opinion. For example, using the word“Senator” for one candidate when no other candidateshave similar titles may create an unbalanced set ofresponses. Examples of questions that might be usedin polling opinion of political candidates include:

1. If the election were being held today, whom wouldyou vote for?

❍ Candidate X

❍ Candidate Y

2. How important is Candidate X’s wartime record inwinning your vote?

❍ very important

❍ somewhat important

❍ unimportant

3. How much has Candidate Y’s voting record on envi-ronmental issues influenced your opinion of him/her?

❍ strongly influenced

❍ somewhat influenced

❍ hardly influenced at all

❍ not influenced at all

Devise high-quality response sheets.Use the preceding models to word questions so thatanswers may be easily checked or circled. Produceenough copies so that you can record the answers ofeach respondent on a separate sheet.

Select a random sample. Take a localtelephone book and tear out all the white pages.Shuffle these pages, and highlight every 7th, 9th or11th name on the list. (If you come from a huge city,make the number higher.) Skip over any businessesthat turn up in the white pages. Divide the high-lighted numbers among class members, and makearrangements for telephone time either at home or atschool. (Be aware that your sample excludes unlistednumbers.)

Team up with someone else. You’llwork faster and have more fun if you pair up. Oneperson can read off numbers, while the other dials.Ten pairs of students with a three-minute survey canmake 100-120 successful contacts in one or two hours.

TIME’SPOLLINGGUIDE� � � � � �Try It Yourself

Measuring Public Opinion:

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6


Plan your call. You will be morecomfortable and consistent if you script an intro-duction, such as the one on the sample form below.Open every call by introducing yourself. End everycall by saying “thank you” and “good night.”

Conduct the survey. Choose the hoursand/or days of the week when respondents are mostavailable. Avoid interrupting meals or calling late inthe evening. If possible, call back unanswerednumbers or numbers connected to an answeringmachine. Do not be discouraged by non-participants.Be courteous and accept a person’s decision not totake part in the survey.

Add up the results. Give response sheetsto a committee of students who will do the tallies.The committee should record the data in bothabsolute numbers and percentages. (Absolutenumbers might be: 20 said “yes” and 60 said “no.”

The following math will show the samefigures as percentages: 20 + 60 = 80respondents; 20 ÷ 80 = 25% who said“yes”; 60 ÷ 80 = 75% who said “no.”)Decide if one method of presentationseems more meaningful than another.

Analyze the results. As a class, seewhat generalizations, conclusions and/or predictionsyou can make on the basis of your poll.

Math whizzes (Mathletes) canfigure out a margin of error (MoE) by using thisformula: 1 , with N equaling the sample size.

√ N The following math will show you how to estimatethe margin of error for a sample of 1,600. The squareroot of 1,600 = 40, and 1/40 = .025, or 2.5%. Thus, themargin of error for this survey is 2.5%.


SAMPLE SURVEY FORMDate Time Phone number called

_____ no answer_____ answered and participated_____ answered but did not participate_____ number not in service, business, other problems

Introduction: Hello. I’m a student at (name of your school). As a class project, we are conducting a poll todetermine public opinion on (subject of survey). We have only a few quick questions. Could I please speak with (type of respondent sought, such as voting-age member of the household or teenager aged 13-19)?

Tip: Alternate asking for male and female respondents to get a better gender balance. Studies have shown that women household members tend to answer the phone more often than male members.

Questions and Responses (Add questions and responses as needed.) Question 1

❍ response A ❍ response B ❍ response C ❍ response D

Closing: Thank you very much for your time. Have a good evening.

STEP 7

STEP 8

STEP 9

EXTRA CREDIT

STEP 10

Special Interviewer Instructions: Remain courteous and polite.Read questions and responses in a balanced and neutral voice.


CAMPAIGN TRACKING KITThe Big Issues� � � � �

Begin tracking election 2000 by identifying the hottest issues—topics like Social Security, anti-ballistic militarydefense, the death penalty or protection of the environment. Over a one-week period, follow the campaignsclosely to identify key points of debate. Check the newspapers, local and national television news, Time andother newsmagazines, radio and television talk shows, and the Web. What issues are grabbing the attention ofvoters? How does each candidate address these issues? Is any third-party candidate forcing the two major candi-dates to defend their records on a key issue? How would the policies recommended by each person affect you?Summarize your findings in the following charts. If necessary, add a chart or expand the charts to include athird-party candidate who has made one or more issues newsworthy.

� � � � �

A L G O R E G E O R G E W. B U S H

How does the candidatedefine the problem?

What solution does hepropose?

How would proposedpolicy affect you?

Do you support oroppose? Why?

ISSUE






ISSUE







ISSUE






ISSUE






ISSUE


Increasing numbers of today’s voters receive most of their information about candidates through paid politicaladvertisements on radio and, most influentially, on television. What makes these ads effective, and whatmessages do they convey? You will become a better consumer of carefully packaged political messages if youstop to examine them with a critical eye. Watch for televised paid political ads over the next few weeks and logyour impressions on the chart below. When you have collected a sufficient number of ads for President andother candidates, complete the writing and research activities on page 14.

Paid Political Advertisement | Date

Where? When?Length?

Sponsor/Candidate

Visual Images ofCandidate

Visual MessagesPresented

Oral MessagesPresented

Issues Addressed


Where? When?Length?

Sponsor/Candidate




Issues Addressed

CAMPAIGN TRACKING KITPaid Political Advertisements� � � �


For Writing and Research1. Ad analysis. Write a detailedanalysis of any one of the ads youentered into your log. How does itmake use of spoken text, writtentext, visuals, music? How well dothe elements work together, andwhat is their effect? What is thegoal of the ad, and does it succeed?Conclude by commenting onwhether or not you found the adpersuasive.

2. The selling of the Pres-ident. Compare paid political ads to commercial product advertising. What techniques are commonly used in product

ads to entice you to buy theparticular product? Cite specificads. Are any of these elementspresent in political ads? Are therereal differences between the Gorevs. Bush ad war and the onebetween Coke and Pepsi? Con-clude with your thoughts on howpaid political ads affect the natureof national political campaigns.

3. The well-informed voter. Ifyou were a voter whose onlysource of information was paidpolitical advertising, what wouldyour impression of each candidatebe? Whom would you see as amore effective leader? A more

compassionate President? Aperson of stronger character?Write a description of eachcandidate from this thinlyinformed voter’s point of view.Read your descriptions aloud withthose of others. What informationis missing? What are the dangersof candidates’ growing reliance ontelevision advertising incampaigns?

Extra Credit: Design an ad.Select the ad from your log thatyou rate as the least effective.How would you redesign it tomake it more persuasive?


Where? When?Length?

Sponsor/Candidate




Issues Addressed


Where? When?Length?

Sponsor/Candidate




Issues Addressed


CAMPAIGN TRACKING KITThe Presidential Debates� �

For Analysis and Discussion

1. On a scale of 1–5, rate the value of this debate as a source of information for voters:Explain your rating. (Continue your answer on page 16.)

Since 1960, when the first televised presidential debate helped put John F. Kennedy in the White House, acandidate’s ability to perform under the glare of TV lights has become a large factor in the outcome of Americanpresidential elections. What will be the outcome when Al Gore and George W. Bush face off this fall? Will adecisive “win” make a difference? Should it? Tune in to the first presidential debate of 2000 and “score” the matchusing the chart on this page. Then summarize the value and impact of the debate by answering the questions thatfollow. (If a third-party candidate takes part in the opening debate, copy and expand the chart on a separate pieceof paper.)

For each category, assign a rating from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest)

C A T E G O R I E S

Opening statement

Strength of argument

Depth of knowledge

Use of evidence

Logic

Responsiveness to questions

Delivery/articulateness

Composure

Presidential quality

Personal appeal

Closing statement

Overall impression

T O T A L S C O R E

G O R E B U S H


2. On a scale of 1–5, rate the value of this debate for you as a viewer:Explain your rating.

3. How did the debate change your impression or opinion of each candidate (for better or worse)?

Gore

Bush

4. Predict the impact. Will either candidate get a “bounce” (upward surge) in the polls as a result of the debate?How much? Check your prediction against next week’s polls.


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� INTRODUCING THE UNIT � You might want to introduce this unit by calling on studentsto brainstorm a list of traits they think best qualify a personfor President. Have students, either as a class or in cooper-ative-learning groups, rank these qualities to identify the topfive traits. Save this list for revision at the end of the unit.

� DEVELOPING THE UNIT � All lessons in this unit, including the special Polling Guide,require little teacher direction. Materials can be photo-copied and handed out to students for use. Encouragestudents to save the Polling Guide for a reference sourcethroughout the year and for conducting special surveys ontopics that interest them.

Exercises in the Election Game 2000 fit naturally intochronological U.S. history courses and into civics or govern-ment units on the executive branch. The Polling Guide alsocan be used in economics classes or in government or civicsunits on public opinion and/or citizenship participation.

The following strategies can introduce or build on activities and readings provided in this package.

So You Want to Be President 1. What the Constitution Says (page 3) Review thethree legal requirements for President. Then have studentswrite amendments changing one or all of these require-ments. Expect heated debate on any amendment thatwould allow naturalized citizens to become President.(You might trigger such a debate by saying, “All of thesePresidents were British subjects at birth: George Wash-ington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison,James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson andWilliam Henry Harrison. Shouldn’t we allow exemplarynaturalized citizens to run for President?”)

2. What History Says (page 5) Use this activity to linksuffrage to past voting patterns. Have students stand up.Then ask each of these groups to sit down: women, Native Americans, African Americans, people living in a rentedhome or apartment, anybody under age 21. Tell studentsthat in the late 18th century only white male landownersage 21 and older were able to vote in federal elections. Ask: What effect might this have had on the selection ofPresident? Challenge students to find provisions in theConstitution that have expanded the electorate. Ask: Howdo changes in suffrage expand the number of candidateswho in theory may run for office?3. What You Say (page 8) After students complete“Playing the Right Card,” ask them to develop another setof cards to repeat the activity.* To enable students tocomplete “Help Wanted: President of the United States” on page 10, ask them to create a time line starting with theyear of their birth and ending with 2028. Instruct them toplot steps that have already put them on the road to theOval Office, and fill in steps they might have to take in thefuture if they want to run for President in 2028.

Campaign Tracking Kit 1. The Big Issues (page 11) Introduce, or distributecopies of, the following terms to students:bread-and-butter issue an issue that affects voters’personal budgets; also known as a pocket-book issueburning issue pivotal, or central, issue to be resolved in a campaign; also known as paramount issuegut issue a campaign theme that reaches beyond rationaldiscussion and appeals instead to voters’ emotions, such as a fear of crimemagnet issue an issue intended to build a coalition ofvoters through its broad appeal, such as aid to education

The Election Game2000TEACHER’S GUIDE � � � � � � � � � �

Every four years, the United States witnesses the grand spectacle of a presidential campaign—a practiceAbraham Lincoln described as “the struggle and scramble for office.” When the practice first started more than200 years ago, no other nation in the world had popularly elected executives. But Americans got into theelection game fast. Only George Washington ever stepped into office uncontested. All other Presidents had torace against somebody else.

As the United States conducts the election that will choose the first President of the 21st century, TimeClassroom takes a look at the office and the people who have held it. Throughout this special resource unit,students are encouraged to consider the experiences and character traits that make an effective President.They also take a critical look at the role of public opinion in shaping democracy and the use of polls as ameasure of what people feel about everything from politics to consumer goods.

switcher issue a gut issue intended to appeal to a specificgroup of voters, such as gun controlwedge issue an issue that splits a constituency, such as thekind that might split liberal and conservatives within a party

Ask students to classify the issues in their chartsaccording to these popular political-science terms. If anyissues do not fit, encourage students to coin new issue-related terms and definitions.2. Paid Political Advertisements (page 13) Ask studentsto call or visit the campaign headquarters of each of themajor candidates. Have them request campaign parapher-nalia, such as brochures, bumper stickers and pins. Analyzethe message and the propaganda techniques (endorsements,name calling, glittering generalities, bandwagon, plain-folksappeal, slanted ideas) used to get the message across. 3. The Presidential Debates (page 15) Call on volunteersto get transcripts or excerpts of the opening presidentialdebate. Suggest that they check newspapers or the websitesof tv networks broadcasting the debate. Then assign teamsof students to reenact highlights of the debate, referring todata in the charts from the Campaign Tracking Kit.4. Mapping the Returns (page 17) A short time beforethe election, assign students to research the predictions bypollsters. Ask: Who is projected to win and by what margin?Which regions and/or states is each candidate expected tocarry? Direct students to clip these polls, then post them inthe classroom. After students have completed their electoralmaps, have them compare the predictions with the actualoutcome. How close were the pollsters? Were any of theprojections better than others? If so, which ones?

Time’s Polling Guide1. Polls: It’s a Matter of Opinion (page 2) This articleprovides students with a broad, general background onpolling. Of particular importance is the list of questions onpage 5 of the Polling Guide. You might have small groups ofstudents gather polls from a wide variety of sources and usethese questions to evaluate them. Have students presenttheir evaluations in short oral reports. 2. Polling: An Insider’s View (page 6) Before studentsread the interview with John Zogby, ask them to speculateon the type of education or experience that they think apollster might require. Have them compare their specula-tions with comments by John Zogby. Based on currenttechnological trends, do students think the skills requiredof pollsters might change? Why or why not? Using theinterview and other materials in this package, wouldstudents describe polling as an art, a science or a combi-nation? What do students think John Zogby might say?3. Poll-Driven News: It’s Worth Evaluating (page 7)To build on this activity, have students locate the results ofa survey reported in tabular form. As indicated elsewherein this package, they might consult recent polls posted atPollingReport.com (www.pollingreport.com). Instruct

them to turn the statistics into press releases similar to theone in “Poll-Driven News.” 4. Pollsters.Com (page 8) For additional background onthis activity, refer students to the interview on page 6 of thePolling Guide. When students have completed the activity,tell them to imagine they are the owners of a new pollingorganization. At present, the organization is following theexample of Gallup and conducting its polls according totraditional methods. The pollsters must, however, decidewhether to invest money in the research and developmentof Internet polls. Allow about 10 minutes for discussion,then have students vote on these options: (1) stick withtraditional polls, (2) follow the example of Harris, (3) followthe example of InterSurvey, (4) test the use of Internetpanels (as Zogby is doing) but delay implementing themfor commercial purposes. Call on students to weigh thepossible short-term and long-term effects of their choice.5. Political Poll Vaulting (page 10) As an extension,evaluate the effect of polls on voter behavior. Ask: Do youthink political polls, particularly exit polls, influence voterbehavior? Have students express their opinions in the formof political cartoons.6. Measuring Public Opinion (page 11) To contrastnon-scientific straw polls and scientific polls, have studentsfind the results of an “Instant” poll on the Internet. Challenge students to test the accuracy of this poll byconducting their own poll, following the steps listed in“Measuring Public Opinion.” Ask: How did your method-ology differ from the techniques used in the electronicstraw poll? How would you defend your results?

� WRAPPING UP THE UNIT � If you opened up the unit by brainstorming the most desiredqualities in a President, review this list. Otherwise, youmight ask students to write an inaugural address for thewinning candidate. By now, students should have a feelingfor the character and beliefs of the President-elect. Anyaddress should reflect these attributes. Students should alsobe aware that anything the President says will undoubtedlyhave an effect upon public opinion. In writing theiraddresses, students should begin with these words: “As thefirst President of the 21st century, I offer today my vision fora new America. The America of the 21st century will …”

*Note: The anonymous candidates in “Playing the RightCard” are: 1. Daniel Inouye 2. Ben Nighthorse Campbell3. Nydia Velázquez 4. Sandra Day O’Connor 5. George W. Bush 6. Colin Powell 7. Dianne Feinstein 8. Al Gore 9. Marian Wright Edelman


TIME Classroom is pleased to partner with Glencoe/McGraw-Hill to provide this Election Guide 2000.

Get complete and current coverage of the 2000 elections with these new programs from Glencoe! Available this Spring!

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