Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011
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Transcript of Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011
![Page 1: Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070400/568134fe550346895d9c48d1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
New Orleans Housing Market Assessment
Overview and Major Conclusions
New Orleans Housing Market Assessment
Overview and Major Conclusions
Presented to
State Bond Commission
March 17, 2011
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Purpose and Outcomes
• Comprehensive supply/demand analysis• Extensive primary data collection• Forecasts of future demand• Geographically nuanced data:– Planning Districts in
Orleans Parish– Census “places” in
St. Bernard Parish
Orleans Parish
St. BernardParish
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Major Conclusions
• Small oversupply of rental housing– Minor by historical standards
• Occupancy rates are improving• Surplus of for-sale housing• Forecasts suggest a healthy rental market
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Small Oversupply of Rentals
Recent “boomlet” is small by historical standards.
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1970
1971
1972
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1974
1975
1976
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1893
1984
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Permits Occupancy
REITs& FHA
DEREG,S&Ls, &1981TAX ACT
1986 TAXREFORM
Post-KGO ZoneLIHTCs
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Permits; Occupancy Figures from UNO Real Estate Center Surveys
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Small Oversupply of Rentals
Construction activity has dramatically slowed.
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Small Oversupply of Rentals
Rents have stabilized – small increase from 2009 to 2010
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Affordable Housing Needs
• 28% of pre-storm units had rents under $500 – current total is 12%
• Nearly 50% of pre-storm units had rents between $500 - $800– current total is 17%
• Acutely felt in deeply affordable category:– 70% of those under 50% AMI have excessive housing costs
• Contributing factor – loss of affordable market rate housing
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Occupancy Rates Improving
Occupancy rates have stabilized since 2008.
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Surplus of For-Sale Units
• Owner occupied units in 2005 that no longer have a homestead exemption• Highlights increase
in single family rentals
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Surplus of For-Sale Units
Listings increased by 14% Rents per square foot declined by 8%
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Surplus of For-Sale Units
Units sales have decreased Days on the market have increased
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Surplus of For-Sale Units
Prices increased from 2009 to 2010 but remain below their 2006 peak
2006 Peak
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Demand Forecasts
Surplus of 2,062 units
Deficit of 5,401 units
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New Orleans:Planning District ProfilesNew Orleans:Planning District Profiles
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District 1CBD, Warehouse District, French Quarter
• Highest sales prices in the city• Strong appreciation in sales prices• Highest median rents in the city• Largest concentration of jobs and amenities• Post-Katrina recovery largely complete
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District 2Garden District, Central City
• High sales prices• “Middle of the pack” along several measures:
– Appreciation in sales prices– Median rent
• Strong post-storm recovery• Second largest concentration of amenities
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District 3Uptown, Broadmoor, Hollygrove
• High sales prices• Relatively high median rents• Moderate appreciation in sales prices• Third highest concentration of jobs and amenities• Second strongest recovery among Eastbank districts
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• Relatively affordable sales prices• Rents are characteristic of city overall• Strong appreciation in sales prices• Moderate pace of recovery• Major concentration of employment and amenities• Major locus of public investment - over $3 billion
District 4Mid-City, Gerttown, Esplanade
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District 5Lakeview
• Substantial decline in sales prices• High priced area nonetheless• Second highest in median rent• Strong recovery in light of flooding• Primarily residential area
Photo by Infrogmation (flickr)
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District 6Gentilly
• Extremely affordable area• Little appreciation in sales prices• Moderate pace of recovery• Primarily residential:
– Limited commercial amenities– Some major employers but fewer jobs than other districts
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District 7Bywater, St. Claude, St. Roch
• High values sales prices for homes in excellent condition• Highest sales price appreciation in the city• Extremely affordable rents• Recovery varies by sub-area• Moderate concentration of amenities and employment
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District 8Lower 9th Ward, Holy Cross
• Slow pace of recovery• Most affordable for-sale market in city• Extremely affordable rents• Few jobs and fewer amenities• Tremendous appreciation in sales
prices:– Make It Right homes– Renovated homes in Holy Cross
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District 9New Orleans East
• Strong recovery in light of flooding• Extremely affordable for-sale market• Low to moderate appreciation in sales prices• Extremely affordable rents• Significant public investment - Road Home grants• Moderate concentration of jobs and commercial activity
– Lacking basic retail
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District 10 and 11Village De L’Est, Viavant/Venetian Isles
• Strong recovery in light of flooding • Most affordable rental market• Strong sales price appreciation:
– Small inventory– May reflect major renovations/updates
• District 10 is major employment center
• Few amenities in either District
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District 12Algiers
• Affordable for-sale market• Little appreciation in sales prices• Relatively affordable rents• Strong post-Katrina recovery• Moderate concentration of jobs
and amenities• Significant public investment -
Federal City
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District 13English Turn
• High real estate values• Significant decline in sales prices• Strong post-Katrina recovery• Uniformly residential community
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www.gcrconsulting.com
504.304.2500 800.259.6192 fax 504.304.2525
2021 Lakeshore Drive New Orleans, LA 70122
UNO Research & Technology ParkAdvanced Technology Center
Ivan J. Miestchovich, Ph.D.UNO Institute for Economic Development and Real Estate Research
504.280.6904 fax 504.280.3952
405 Kirschman Hall2000 Lakeshore Drive
New Orleans, LA 70148