Presented toPresented to

Maine Department of Transportation Maine Department of Transportation August 15 2005August 15 2005

John Dorrer, Director John Dorrer, Director

Labor Market Information ServicesLabor Market Information Services

Maine Department of LaborMaine Department of Labor

John.Dorrer@Maine.GovJohn.Dorrer@Maine.Gov

207-287-2271207-287-2271

Maine Workforce Maine Workforce Challenges: Challenges: Demographic Trends Demographic Trends and Finding Skilled and Finding Skilled WorkersWorkers

Maine Economy

Demographics

Foreign Competition Technology

Values

Workforce DynamicsWorkforce Dynamics

Stocks and Flows Stocks and Flows

New Grads Maine’s Workforce

Foreign Immigrants

Domestic In-migrants

Disabled Populations

Dropouts

Emerging Workers Established Workers Senior Workers

Low Wage Workers

Senior Workers

If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want a 100 years of prosperity, grow people

Old Chinese Proverb

Maine Workforce Maine Workforce DemographicsDemographics

Projected change in population by age groupProjected change in population by age groupin Maine between 2000 and 2010in Maine between 2000 and 2010

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

0-15 16-19 20-24 24-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Average annual civilian labor force growthAverage annual civilian labor force growthin Maine by decade with 2000 to 2010 forecastin Maine by decade with 2000 to 2010 forecast

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10

Maine’s Senior Workforce: The Maine’s Senior Workforce: The NumbersNumbers

(000)(000)

Age Cohort Age Cohort 20002000 20102010

M F TM F T M F M F TT

55-64 55-64 40 37 77 66 60 40 37 77 66 60 126 126

65+ 13 10 23 17 12 2965+ 13 10 23 17 12 29

Maine Resident Pupil CountsMaine Resident Pupil Counts 1970-20171970-2017

175,000

185,000

195,000

205,000

215,000

225,000

235,000

245,000

255,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Gra

de

Co

un

t

Population, labor force, and employed in Maine

 Age

  14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99

Female 0.7 % 1.4 % 2.8 % 12.2 % 15.1 % 13.4 % 6.3 % 1.2 %

Male 0.4 % 0.9 % 1.9 % 10.5 % 12.4 % 11.5 % 7.1 % 1.4 %

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

 Age

  14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99

Female 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.8 % 4.0 % 7.4 % 7.8 % 3.9 % 0.6 %

Male 0.4 % 1.7 % 2.7 % 12.4 % 21.8 % 22.8 % 10.8 % 1.2 %

Manufacturing

 Age

  14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99

Female 0.1 %* 0.1 % 0.5 % 2.5 % 4.1 % 3.0 % 1.7 % 0.3 %

Male 0.3 % 2.4 % 4.6 % 18.3 % 24.2 % 23.0 % 12.3 % 1.8 %

*=Value significantly distorted to protect confidentiality

Construction Industry

Emerging Labor Force: Maine vs. U.SEmerging Labor Force: Maine vs. U.S..

Population Change 1990-2000Population Change 1990-2000% Persons under 5 years old % Persons under 5 years old % Persons 65+ years % Persons 65+ years % White% White% Black or African-American % Black or African-American % Asian % Asian % Latino or Hispanic Origin % Latino or Hispanic Origin % Foreign Born% Foreign Born% persons 18-64 with % persons 18-64 with Disability who are employed Disability who are employed (2002)(2002)

MaineMaine U.SU.S3.83.8 13.113.15.55.5 6.8 6.8

14.414.4 12.412.496.996.9 75.175.10.50.5 12.312.30.70.7 3.6 3.60.70.7 12.512.52.92.9 11.111.1

33.0 30.033.0 30.0

Emerging Labor Force: Risk Emerging Labor Force: Risk Factors 2004Factors 2004

% Teens (16-19) High School % Teens (16-19) High School DropoutsDropouts

% Teens (16-19) not in school % Teens (16-19) not in school

and not workingand not working % Children Living in Families % Children Living in Families where no parent has full time where no parent has full time

year round employmentyear round employment % Children in Poverty% Children in Poverty

% Young Adults (18-24) % Young Adults (18-24)

Disconnected* 2002Disconnected* 2002 * * Persons 18-24 not in school, are not Persons 18-24 not in school, are not

working and have no degree beyond working and have no degree beyond HSHS

Maine U.SMaine U.S 12 9 12 9

8 88 8

27 2527 25 13 1613 16

18 1518 15

Source: Maine Kids Count 2004Source: Maine Kids Count 2004

Table 1: In-Migration and Out-Migration in Northern Maine

and Southern Maine from 1995- 2000, Total and Among 18-24 Years Old

Age Group In-MigrationOut-

Migration Balance

All 5+  

Maine 110,732 107,440 +3,292

Northern Maine 24,571 83,707 -59,136

Southern Maine 86,161 23,733 +62,428

18-24 Years Old  

Maine 16,814 25,733 -8,919

Northern Maine 3,895 19,881 -15,986

Southern Maine 12,919 5,852 +7,067

Source: Public Use Micro Files (PUMS), 5%, Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau, tabulations by Center for Labor Market Studies.

Maine Workforce Skills Maine Workforce Skills Requirements Requirements

Gross Product per Maine Manufacturing Gross Product per Maine Manufacturing Job Job

(Adjusted for Inflation)(Adjusted for Inflation)

1980 = $30,0001980 = $30,000

2000 = $60,0002000 = $60,000

MaineOccupationsMaineOccupations ForecastForecast

Top TenTop Ten2002-20122002-2012

Fastest Projected Rate of Job GrowthFastest Projected Rate of Job Growth

+Medical Assistants

+Social and Human Services Assistant

+Self-Enrichment Education Teachers

+Physician Assistants

+Medical Records and Health Information Techs.

+Personal and Home Care Aides

+Personal Financial Advisors

+Physical Therapy Assistants

+Massage Therapists

+Veterinary Technologists and Techs.

MaineOccupationsMaineOccupations ForecastForecast

Top TenTop Ten2002-20122002-2012

Jobs with the Most OpeningsJobs with the Most Openings+Cashiers +Cashiers +Retail Sales Persons+Retail Sales Persons+Food Prep and Service Workers+Food Prep and Service Workers+Waitpersons +Waitpersons +Registered Nurse+Registered Nurse+General and Operations Managers+General and Operations Managers+Home Care Aids+Home Care Aids+Food Preparation Workers+Food Preparation Workers+Janitors and Cleaners +Janitors and Cleaners +First Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers +First Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers

MaineOccupationsMaineOccupations ForecastForecast

Top TenTop Ten2002-20122002-2012

Occupations with the largest Employment Requiring a Occupations with the largest Employment Requiring a Bachelors Degree Bachelors Degree

General ManagersGeneral ManagersSecondary TeachersSecondary TeachersElementary TeachersElementary TeachersMiddle School Teachers Middle School Teachers Accountants and Auditors Accountants and Auditors LawyersLawyersFinancial ManagersFinancial ManagersSocial Workers Social Workers Insurance AgentsInsurance Agents

Employment Outlook U.S.Employment Outlook U.S.Highway Street and Bridge Highway Street and Bridge

ConstructionConstruction

2002 2012 Pct Change

344,400 363,800 5.0

Maine Employment TrendsMaine Employment TrendsHeavy and Civil Engineering Heavy and Civil Engineering

ConstructionConstruction1994-20041994-2004

1994 2004 Pct Change

3,300 3,700 12.0

Occupational Employment Outlook Occupational Employment Outlook Construction-Related in Maine Construction-Related in Maine

OccupationOccupation 20022002 20122012 Pct ChangePct Change Annual Annual OpeningsOpenings

Highway Highway Maintenance Maintenance Workers Workers

Operating Operating Engineers Engineers

First Line First Line SupervisorsSupervisors

(Constr)(Constr)

ConstructionConstruction

LaborersLaborers

20902090

16901690

32503250

39503950

22902290

17201720

33603360

41104110

1010

44

33

44

5050

5050

7070

7070

Occupational Employment OutlookOccupational Employment OutlookProfessionals and High Skilled Professionals and High Skilled

Occupation Occupation 20022002 20122012 Pct ChangePct Change AnnualAnnual

OpeningsOpenings

Civil Civil EngineersEngineers 11301130 11401140 -- 2020

Surveying Surveying and and Mapping Mapping Tech.Tech.

331331 400400 2121 2020

Civil Eng. Civil Eng. TechTech 520520 520520 -- 1010

Carpenters Carpenters and and ElectriciansElectricians

13,78013,780 14,27014,270 3.63.6 280280