Presented by : Said Shakib Atef

PI: Fahimeh Salehi

Partner: Dr. Daniel. B.Fagre, USG-Supported partner Prof. Ulrich Kamp, Project co-PI/Adviser

2019 PEER Forum - Transboundary Water Research in Central AsiaIn Partnership with IWMI

October 21-22, 2019

OUTLINE

Actual Result and Deliverables ,

Development Impacts

Conclusion and Recommendation

ST

UD

Y A

RE

A

This study involves the calculation

of streamflow from rainfall, snow

and glacier melt as components

of the runoff.

Two different Model is used to estimate glacier melt

volume and Total runoff

1. The (Ablation Gradients Model) which requires

minimum data input and is a mass balance model

with parameterization of glacier area changes and

subsequent aggregation of regional glacier

characteristics .

Qb = Qr + Qs + Qi - E ± S ……………….. (Eq. 1)

2. Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) Model,

estimates the fractional glacier cover (GF) for each

500 m grid cell at a monthly time step from 2001 until

2030.

METHODOLOGY

The results obtained using this method was not satisfactory because of the following limitation in the critical variables:• The area-altitude distribution (hypsometry) of glaciers, or glacierized

portions of basins.• The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of glaciers.• The slope of the ablation gradient for the glaciers.• The mean summer altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the altitudinal range

through which it moves annually.• The hypsometry of the glaciers and basins is calculated, for the glaciers. A more exact altitudinal distribution of glacier surface area in the ablation zone for each 100m band is required. Due to the harsh weather and rugged terrain of the Himalayas, monitoring of glaciers is difficult by direct field methods.

According to the basin’shypsometry and referringto the AGM the calculatedglacier melt componentequals to 9,521 Mm3 whichis about 23% of the runoff.

R E S U LT S

Seeing Above limitation, SPHYmodel is developed for bothAmu Darya and Kabul riverbasins to gain better results.

Inputs: monthly averagetemperature, precipitation,terrain elevation data, the initialGF for each 500 m grid cell, thedistribution of glaciers overterrain elevation, and glaciersize classes.

The impact of temperaturechanges on glacier ablation andrunoff is estimated with thesame altitude-dependent modelthat was employed to estimatethese factors under currentconditions.

R E S U LT S

8.76%

14.12%

the resulted time series

routed flow of Rainfall,

base flow, snowmelt,

glacier melt indicates

decrease in the

amount of total runoff

verses time, it shows

that climate change

has impacted the flow

regime

Based on the result,

changing precipitation

or melting snow and ice

are altering

hydrological systems,

affecting water

resources in terms of

quantity. Glaciers

continue to shrink due

to climate change,

affecting runoff and

water resources

downstream. Climate

change is causing

permafrost warming

and thawing in high-

latitude regions and in

high-elevation regions.

RESULTS

The snow cover maps of both Kabul

and Amu Darya River basin in

different time periods is analyzed, the

snow coverage decreased each

year, and there are signs of early melt

of snow coverage in the basin.

Previously the water was produced by

melting of snow was used for irrigation

in the summer, however the early

melting of snow created the following

problems in both basins:

• Less water for irrigation in the

summer period,

• Flash floods in the rivers, and

flooding of the canals

• More rainfall comparing the

snowfall,

Fallowing bands are used to generate

snow cover map of both Kabul and

Amu Darya river basins from terra

(MOD10) Satellites considering

deferent time periods.

R E S U LT S

The scenario of glacier lake formation is happened in Afghanistan and occurrence of a

suffered flood in Peshgor village of panjshir is a real example of glacier lake formation

The main sources of the panjshir river is glacier and snow melt. The headwater of the

river basin consists of number of glaciers and glacial lakes, which are the major sources

of water.

Based on the analyzes, the new lake was formed between October, 2017 and June,

2018.

Hence the major causes of the flood were glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)

The major damages and losses from the flood are mostly concentrated in the Peshghor

village, in the confluence of the Panjshir River at a distance of 12 km downstream from

the lake.

Several small landslides were also observed along the flooded river as a result of toe

cutting by flood on the narrow river stretch.

The floodwater along with the tons of debris not only damaged along the river but also

dammed the main Panjshir River and formed big lake in the upstream.

It inundated the agriculture land, houses and roads along the river up to 1.7 km from

the confluence of the river. About 1.5 km of the highway was damaged due to flood as

well as inundation by formation of lake in the Panjshir River.

based on the report of the people, 4 people in this flood were died and 40 houses were

completely damaged.

The study main focus was on the assessment and analyses of the formation of the

Panjshir glacier lakes and search for the reasons behind the flood which was happened

in Peshgor village.

Case study of Peshghor GLOF

Other Glacier Lakes in the Basin

The Glacier Lake is forming Again, -GLOF may occur

again-Temperature is increasing

Other Critical Glacier Lakes in the Basin

There is no monitoring mechanism,

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Amu Darya and Kabul river basin receives the majority of their water from

melting of glaciers, snow packs, and icecaps which are stored in High

Mountain of Asia; Hindu-Kush Himalayan and Pamir. This rivers because

of rise of temperature and acceleration in the process of snow and glacier

melt have experienced a great diminish in the amount of their water in

recent years.

The countries in the region need to take the GLOF threat seriously a

mechanism should be placed for regular monitoring of glacial lakes,

identification of critical lakes and GLOF prone areas using remote sensing

approach.

Also detail field investigation is essential in the most dangerous glacial

lakes.

Installation of real time sensor network to measure the rise and discharge

of lake water and early warning system coupled with GLOF simulation

models for predicting the level and time of arrival of flood in the most

dangerous glacial lake area is necessary, to reduce the intensity of

disaster associated with the GLOFs.

Strengthening certain related policies to diminish the climate change

impacts; and mechanism for prevention of such impacts would help in the

preparedness for and countering impacts of natural disasters in

Afghanistan and other countries.

It is also necessary to create awareness to the peoples living downstream

of these dangerous lakes and guide them about prevention measures.

To capture and store excess water during periods of high water availability.

A clear policy is required to prevent deathful flood and drought.

Achievement, Specific Activities, Results and Impacts

1) CONFERENCE

A national level conference comprises of different level of stack-holders was organized, titled “Exploring Policy Options for Control of climate change impacts on the Kabul River Basin”

The aim behind holding this conference was discussion about the impact of climate change in Pamir, and Hindu Kush Mountains,

This conference was an opportunity for the stakeholders to come up with a suitable solution to the adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

The participants in KRB conference were from the MEW, MAIL, NEPA, CAREC, World Bank, USAID and other NGOs. The total number of 60 participants were attended to this gathering.

2. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

A set of policy outlines were accumulated, documented and

disseminated to relevant stakeholders in the national level

conference.

The document “Kabul River Basin Climate Change Policy

Recommendations” covers set of policy outlines including

climate change adaptation, mitigation, air pollution, flood and

drought management, source and road map for funding.

Conducting several meetings with stakeholders and decision

makers and highlighting the importance of the climate change

impacts have resulted to formulation and structuring of climate

change division under hydro metro logy department of MEW.

New Glacier Monitoring Stations, and alarm system is in the

process of Installation,

Achievement, Specific Activities, Results and Impacts

Achievement, Specific Activities, Results and Impacts

3. Seminars and trainings

From the beginning of the project till now several capacity

building seminars and trainings were conducted and some of the

impressive results of this trainings are articles which are listed

below:

• a) Flood Management in Harirud River Basin

• b) Assessment of the Pashdan Dam Hydrology

• c) Assessment of the modern Irrigation System in Herat

• d) Design of Water Supply system in Ariana Town

• e) Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Analysis of

Land Cover Change in Tashqorghan, Kholm District,

4) PUBLICATIONS AND DISSEMINATION The project has resulted to several papers, article, oral presentation and publications as listed below:

Two Booklet, Was prepared. And distributed to relevant agencies. Presentation of Impact of Climate Change on Runoff from Glaciers, Snow and Rainfall in The Pamir, and Hindu Kush Mountains: A Comparison of Amu Darya and KRB to the conference of State of Cryosphere in the Himalaya with a focus on Sikkim and eastern Himalia- gaps, challenges and opportunities

The abstract of the first paper “Afghanistan the obvious victim of climate change” is accepted for oral presentation in 2nd World Congress on Climate Change 19 in Berlin Germany.- Central Asia Journal of water Research accepted the paper-Under review.

The abstract of second paper “Impact of Climate Change on Runoff from Glaciers, Snow and Rainfall in The Pamir, and Hindu Kush Mountains” is submitted to International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology.

5) DATA GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION Spatial Precipitation, Temperature, DEM data, Slope, Sub-basin, Latitude Map, Root

Field Map, Field Capacity Map, Root zone and sub zone Physical Map of Soil, Land use map, Glacier maps including initial glacier fraction, clean ice, debris cover glacier fraction maps and flow direction/routing map of KRB and Amu Darya River Basin were generated from HKH datasets and distributed to relevant stakeholders.

Glacier Lakes which were created in KRB were identified, mapped and data were shared with stakeholders.

6) Cooperation and Collaboration This project has provided a great opportunity to create a cooperation platform through

organizing conferences with the local and international PEER Awardees. Through this project, GSRO has organized a national conference with cooperation of LEAD Pakistan, AZMA Vocational Institute and contribution of GOs and NGOs agencies.

Achievement, Specific Activities, Results and Impacts

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION