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Transcript of Presented by Richard A. Wagoner National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications...
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Presented by
Richard A. WagonerNational Center for Atmospheric Research
Research Applications Program
ETG Preliminary Design ReviewBaltimore, MD21 February, 2001
Background Briefing on Post Processing Data Fusion Technology at NCAR
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Research Applications Program
Quality Control
(Extreme)
Real-timeDataPre-
Processing
DataAssimilationMesoscale
Model
Real-timeData
Algorithms
SensorSystems
HumanInput
( > 15 min)
Fuzzy LogicIntegrationAlgorithm
SelectiveClimatological
Input
ProductGenerator
EndUser
Community
ModelOutput
Algorithms
Design Paradigm for Intelligent Weather Systems
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Research Applications Program
Fuzzy Logic Mapping/Merging of Intelligence Sources & Product Extraction
Intelligence Source #1
Intelligence Source #2
Intelligence Source #3
Intelligence Source #4
Fuzzy Logic Function #1
Fuzzy Logic Function #2
Fuzzy Logic Function #3
Fuzzy Logic Function #4
Interest Field #1 x W1
Interest Field #2 x W2
Interest Field #3 x W3
Interest Field #4 x W4
IterativeValidation
= Human inputs
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Research Applications Program
Notable Paradigm Shifts
Old Paradigm Years Accepted
New Paradigm Years Since Introduced
Ptolemy: Geocentric Universe
1640 Copernicus: Heliocentric Solar System
457
Aristotle: Physics based on qualities
1992 Newton: Physics based on mechanics
308
Aristotle: Immutable Species
1853 Darwin: Origin of Species
147
Newton: Physics based on mechanics
217 Einstein: Physics based on Relativity
91
Aristotle: Dichotomous Logic
2300 Zadeh: Continuous Logic (Fuzzy Logic)
37
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Research Applications Program
Fuzzy Logic Milestones
• Inverted pendulum control system (1978)
• FL-based BKG-9.8 program wins World Backgammon Championship (1979)– Phase shifts
– Won the match in Monte Carlo 7:1
• First commercial large-scale control system installed in cement kiln in Denmark (1980)– Improved operations compared to human
– Cut fuel consumption
• Broad implementation of FL-based control systems (late 1980s
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Research Applications Program
Fuzzy Logic Milestones (cont.)
• Sendai train in Japan (1987)– Smoothest ride known
– Operational scores 3x better than human
– 10% energy saving over human operator
• Garry Kasparov, World Chess Champion and Grand Master, defeated by IBM’ FL-based Big Blue (1997)– Rule base fuzzified over last 5 years
– FL addresses phase changes in game strategy
– Neural net produces potential “rules” for FL conversion
– “When I see things I don’t understand, it scares me.” -- Kasparov
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Research Applications Program
Universal Application of Fuzzy Mathematical Theory in Algorithm Development Has Many Significant Advantages
• Retains the maximum amount of information through all steps of algorithm processing (no “thresholding”)
• Straightforward to apply, even by experts not familiar with it
• Easy to change later without significant rework
• Harmonious with natural language definitions
• Completely compatible with neural-net and rule-based systems
• Eliminates possibility of closed loops or ambiguities
• Very precise: allows detection of weak signal in noisy background
• Allows for easy merge of very disparate information
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Research Applications Program
A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.
- Max Planck
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Research Applications Program
Fatalities Associated with U.S. AviationWind Shear Accidents
0
138
112
152134
37
00
50
100
150
Nu
mb
er o
f F
atal
itie
s
'65-'69 '70-'74 '75-'79 '80-'84 '85-'89 '90-'94 '95-'99Year of Accident
Wind Shear R&D
Pilot Training
TDWR
*
* Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.No TDWR system at Little Rock.
Source: NTSB, National Research Council
Pago Pago JFK, NY New Orleans
Dallas Charlotte
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TurbulenceTurbulenceInjures Cabin Crew and Frightens Passengers
Injures Cabin Crew and Frightens Passengers
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Research Applications Program
Advanced Data Fusion Provides ImprovedForecast of CAT
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Research Applications Program
Winter ‘99 ranks (92 days)
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IcingIcingAffects Aircraft In-flight
and on the GroundAffects Aircraft In-flight
and on the Ground
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Research Applications Program
In-flight Icing Causes Dangerous Loss of Lift and Control
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Research Applications Program
New Icing Product Depicts a Particularly Difficult Day
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Research Applications Program
ThunderstormsThunderstormsCause Accidents and DelaysCause Accidents and Delays
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Research Applications Program
Forecast for Little Rock Accident Provides Ample Warning
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Ceiling and VisibilityCeiling and VisibilityContributes to General Aviation
Accidents and CancellationsContributes to General Aviation
Accidents and Cancellations
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Research Applications Program
Low Ceiling and Visibility is a Serious Problemfor Landing Aircraft
Dar
in B
ish
op
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Research Applications Program
IWS Goals for Data-rich Areas
• Space resolution: 1 mile
• Time resolution: 1 minute
• Probability of detection: 90%
• False alarm rate: 10%
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Research Applications Program
Summary
• A person who has held a bull by the tail knows about sixty times more than a person who hasn’t.
- Mark Twain
• NCAR / RAP is now a “continuous set theory” development center
• Over 90% of systems developed use fuzzy logic as the intelligence integrator
• Unprecedented fidelity and accuracy in systems development
• Automatic FL-based systems now compete with human forecasts