Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

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WILLIAM OSLER CAPITAL 5 TH YEAR PORTFOLIO REVIEW Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015

Transcript of Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Page 1: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

WILLIAM OSLER CAPITAL 5TH YEAR PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Presented by Managing Partners:L.D. Porayko, MDD. Wingnean, MD

September 2015

Page 2: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Important Disclaimer/Legal Stuff

WILLIAM OSLER CAPITAL AND ITS PORTFOLIO MANAGERS MAY HAVE A LONG OR SHORT POSITION IN ANY OF THE SECURITIES PRESENTED

THESE SECURITIES MAY BE SOLD OR BOUGHT WITHOUT GIVEN NOTICE. PLEASE VERIFY DETAILS AND CONSIDER YOUR INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL

SITUATION BEFORE MAKING YOUR OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS.

THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENT IN ANY MEDIA USED IN THIS PRESENTATION.

WILLIAM OSLER CAPITAL AND ITS MANAGING PARTNERS WILL NOT ACCEPT LIABILITY FOR ANY LOSSES OR DAMAGES, MONETARY OR

OTHERWISE THAT MAY RESULT FROM THE CONTENT OF THIS PRESENTATION.

Page 3: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

DISCIPLINEFLEXIBILITY

PATIENCE

Time Arbitrage= our most powerful ally

Page 4: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Mispricing

Quantitative

Owner-Operator Orientation

Alignment of interests

Advantages

Durable Moat

Threats/Opportunities

Potential game-

changers

Strength of Conviction & Edge

The source of patience

MOATS METHODOLOGY

Page 5: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Our Mandate

Positive return in both bear

and bull markets

Invest with a margin of

safety

Primum Non

Nocere

Pay little for

optionality

Alignment of partner interests

Page 6: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

3 Value Themes

Compounders

Cigar Butts

Special Situations

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Sector Exposure

CRE 23%

Energy 21%

Financial 20%

Other 36%

Page 8: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

THE PORTFOLIO:

Cash Management

AUM :

2015: $4.8MM CDN

Cash Position ≈ 23%

(20%US$:80% CDN$)

Net Long Equity + Cash CDN$ Exposure:

≈12% short CDN(14% net long CDN 2014)

Page 9: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Total Current Active Positions = 26

• LT Goal: ≈ 15

Ex Cash Top 5 positions = 33% total

• LT Goal: ≈ 50%

Portfolio Concentration

Page 10: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Long-term Performance

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Long-term Performance

WOAPICTSXS&PRussell

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Short-term Performance

Page 13: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

TSX return

Sans Valeant

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TSX returnwith fund return superimposed

Sans Valeant

Page 15: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

BYD

IDWM

NOVCFW SHOS

Page 16: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Last year…You did well only if you held US$ stocks

Page 17: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Market Valuations…even the US market looks fairly valued at interest rates of 5%

1/2.5% = P/E of 40x

1/5% = P/E of 20x

Page 18: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

What the #$#! are we doing owning O&G?

Mean Regression

Page 19: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Energy Sector Cyclical Downturn

“We do believe that the North American rig count has now reached bottom, but that we will only see a

slow increase in drilling and completion activity in the second half of the year, which will not make any

material dent in the massive overcapacity that has been created...” —Schlumberger 

Page 20: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Energy Sector Downturn

A Variant Perception

“Core believes that worldwide crude oil supply and demand markets are

well on their way to a balance at year-end, 2015…Core sees the V-

shape recovery, led by higher commodity prices and followed by

worldwide drilling activities, starting to increase in early 2016.” —

Core Labs

?OPPORTUNITY

Page 21: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

A little nugget of truth about predicting economic outcomes

Attributed to Josh Brown, of the Reformed Broker Blog

“Roses are red,Violets are blue,We have no idea what’s going to happen,And neither do you.”

What we think…

Page 22: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Portfolio Review

Top Five Positions

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The top 5: only 1 left from ‘14

Company Allocation Last year’s rank

IDW Media Holdings 13% 11

US Reg Bank Subport 6.5% 15

Special Opp Fund 6% 12

Nat’l Oilwell Varco 4% 1

Leucadia Nat’l 4% 18

Page 24: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

IDW Media

Holdings

At the tilting point?

Allocation: 13% Annualized Return: 62%

Aggregator of Media Assets

Page 25: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Has many features we like to see

Oddball conglomerate

Illiquid & obscure

Spin-offTalented owner-operator mgmt

Long runway

Page 26: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Multi-bagger

Initial Capital Divested

Page 27: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Mispriced? Maybe.

EM 2.8x 2010 14x 2015E

ROIC low 30’sEBIT margin doubled

since 2011

adj 2017 EBIDTA to double again to $22MM

TV/Movies/Merchandising• 2017 EV/EBIDTA of 6x???

We’ll see.

Page 28: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Owner-operator orientation?

•HJ and 2 HF’s own 84%

Howard Jonas: Founder/Chair

•Owns 17% of IDWTed Adams: CEO

•Except…IDT debacleShareholder-friendly track

record

Page 29: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Durable Competitive Advantage?

Patents

Geography

Page 30: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Threats/Opportunities

THREATS OPPORTUNITIES

Minimal tangible assets

3 large competitors

Capital Markets

Rapid Growth phase

Streaming content

M&A

Stock currency

Page 31: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Strength of Conviction

10x upside

Downside

considerable:

valuation and fickle

capital markets

Free call

option on futur

e grow

th

Page 32: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

#2 Thrift/Regional Bank Basket

Consolidation trend

Discounts to book; yet overcapitalized & profitable

Activists at work

Thrift ownership/economic distortion

Allocation 6.5%Annualized Return:

43%

Page 33: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Regional Bank Sub-PortfolioName Ticker Market Price

# Shares owned Market Value Allocation Return (-div)

Pathfinder Bancorp PBHC $10.94 2,717 $29,724 0.5% 20.0%Investors Bancorp ISBC $12.21 2,500 $30,525 0.5% 22.0%

Oconee Fed Fin Crp OFED $18.44 1,751 $32,288 0.5% 0.0%

Westfield Financial WFD $7.47 3,000 $22,410 0.4% 3.7%

Sunnyside Bancorp SNNY $10.20 1,000 $10,200 0.2% 3.0%

Riverview Bancorp RVSB $4.45 7,000 $31,150 0.5% 13.0%

First Internet Bancorp INBK $33.11 2,500 $82,775 1.3% 106.0%

Total Value SubPort $239,072 USD

US:CDN Forex 1.31

Total Value SubPort $313,185 CDN

Total Value Port $4,855,082 CDN

Allocation Subport 6.45%

Subport return 44.17%

Not including Dividends or Forex benefit

Subport return 51.80%Including forex

benefit

Page 34: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Threats

Hyper-inflation

Rapid interest rate rise

Market valuation

Geopolitical/macro-economic

Page 35: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Even brisk IR rises can be ok

Page 36: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

And even moderate inflation is ok

Page 37: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

#3 Special Opportunities Fund

Master

Arbitrager

of CEF in-

efficiencies

Discount to

its own NAV

(13%)

Mid-teens CAGR track

record

Insider

buying

Int’l expan-sion?

Allocation: 4.5% Total Return: -2%

Page 38: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

#4 NOV: Baby in the bathwater?

Allocation 3.3%Total Return -38%

Page 39: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Mispriced?

Page 40: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Tailwinds for the outfitters…

…but headwinds for the prospectors

It’s a supply problem; demand is increasing by 1,400,000 BOE/day!

Also…depletion curves….

Page 41: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

NOV: OOO?

Exemplary capital

allocation record

Conservative balance

sheet

Page 42: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

NOV: Advantages

EOS and Network effect

90% rigs have NOV kit

60% market share

Sticky contracts

Page 43: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

NOV: Threats & Opportunities

Acquisitive

business plan

Mis-execution of

M&A

Take-

under

Emerging markets

Up and

coming

competition

Page 44: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

NOV: Conviction

Secular multi-decade tailwind

What’s our Edge? Patience

Page 45: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

LUK: Complex Conglomerate… in transition

= $32/share—60% above market!

Allocation: 3.5% Total Return: -11%

Page 46: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

#5 Leucadia National

Page 47: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Honourable Mentions

#6 BYD-UN #7 PSD #8 BPY-UN #11 RHDGF

Page 48: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Contemplating some mistakes

Charlie Munger said:•“I know I’ll perform better if I rub my nose in my mistakes. This is a wonderful trick to learn.”

Over-estimating economic moats•Particularly competitive threats… business is really, really hard!

Corporate culture really

matters

Page 49: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Opportunities in the unloved

O&G value ‘basket’

Emerging

market

franchises

Asset managers

REITS

Page 50: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Fund Strategy

Page 51: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Who are we & why do we do this?

Lorne Porayko, MD, CIM

David Wingnean, MD, MBA

Page 52: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Who are we & why do we do this?

Perceived need

Innate curiosity

Career Longevity

Temperament

Love it!!!

Page 53: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Why use us vs. others?

Skin in the game

Choice vs. $ imperative

Know our client base

Discipline, high RQ and

life experience

Page 54: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

What do we get out of it?

OPM Discipline

Securities Council

Requirement ✔

Positive Impact

Eventual Roll Out of

Professional Fund

Page 55: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

$10MM AUM minimum

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$5,000,000.00

AUM $10MM

?2017-2020

Page 56: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Thank You For Your Trust &

Support

Page 57: Presented by Managing Partners: L.D. Porayko, MD D. Wingnean, MD September 2015.

Feedback:

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www.williamoslercapital.com