Presented by Magnus Ebo Duncan On 30 th April 2008 Revised GDP Estimates for 2008.
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Transcript of Presented by Magnus Ebo Duncan On 30 th April 2008 Revised GDP Estimates for 2008.
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Presented byMagnus Ebo Duncan
On 30th April 2008
Revised GDP Estimates for 2008
Statistical Newsletter, No. B12-2003Ghana Statistical Service
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Outline of the presentation
2
GDP and its importanceTypes of GDP estimation Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the
Production ApproachSchedule of updatesRevised estimates for 2008
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What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
3
The total value of the final goods and services produced in the country during a given period, usually one year
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Importance of GDP
4
To measure the performance of the economy in a given time period
To compare the level of performance from year to year
To assess the performance of the various sectors of the economy
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Measurement Approaches
5
Production Approach
Expenditure Approach
Income Approach
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Domestic private savings
Generation and Use of National Income
Rest of world
Firms Households
ProductMarkets
FactorMarkets
Government Save/Invest
Factorcost
Salesrevenues
Wages& rents
Privatecons.
Gov’texp.
Invest.exp.
Transfers
Import payments
Export receipts Foreign savings
Taxes Gov’t savings
Domestic demand for final goods
Intermediatedemand
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Compilation & estimation of GDP by the Production
approach
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04/21/238
AGRICULTURE Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and
Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing
INDUSTRY Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and Water Construction
SERVICES Transport, Storage and Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services Government Services Community, Social and Personal Services Producers of Private Non- profit Services
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1. AGRICULTURE
Crops and Livestock
Cocoa Production and Marketing
Forestry and Logging
Fishing
2. INDUSTRY
2.1 Mining and Quarrying
2.2 Manufacturing
2.3 Electricity and Water
2.4 Construction
3. SERVICES
3.1 Transport, Storage and Communication
3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels
3.3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services
3.4 Government Services
3.5 Community, Social and Personal Services
3.6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services
Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation
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Sources of Data
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administrative records (Public and Private Enterprises, MDAs)
Surveys (Households and Specific)
Censuses
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Sources of Data – Agricultural Sector
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1. Data on crop production - Statistics, Research and Information Division (SRID) of MOFA
2. Data on livestock production - Animal Health & Production Department
3. Cocoa production & marketing - COCOBOD
4. Data on forestry & logging - Forestry Commission
5. Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department
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Sources of Data – Industrial Sector
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Mining & Quarrying1. Mines Department and Minerals Commission2. Precious Minerals Marketing Company
Electricity and Water1. Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd2. Volta River Authority3. Ghana Water Company Ltd
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Sources of Data – Industrial Sector (Cont.)
13
Manufacturing – a combination of 1. Information from the Ghana Living Standard
Survey2. VAT data3. Financial Statements of Selected
Establishments
Construction1. Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement2. Imports 3. VAT data
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Sources of Data – Services Sector
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Wholesale & Retail Trade, Hotels & Restaurants1. Commodity flow 2. VAT data3. Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS)
Transport and Communication1. Major transport companies2. DVLA3. Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom,
Kasapa
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Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)
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Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services
1. Banks2. Insurance Companies3. VAT
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Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)
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Government Services1. Ministry of Finance and Economic
Planning2. Ministry of Local Government 3. Bank of Ghana4. Controller and Accountant General’s
Department
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Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)
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Community, Social & Personal Service Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS) VAT data
Producers of Private Non-Profit Services (NPISH)
Religious Organizations Civil Society Organizations TUC
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Valuation of GDP
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GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP)
GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP)
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GDP at Current Prices
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GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of the given year
This is also referred to as the nominal GDP
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GDP at Constant Prices
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The GDP at current prices deflated to a given base year prices Using the appropriate price indices (e.g. CPI,
PPI, Exchange Rate Index, Minimum Wage Index etc.)
Currently, the base year for the constant estimates of Ghana’s GDP is 1993
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-Projected -provisional-Revised-final
TYPES OF ESTIMATES
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Projected Estimates
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They are made for future periods where economic activities have not taken place or no data on activities are available
The estimates are made based on• government policies and decisions• Trend analysis and other economic models• assumptions (eg. weather)
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Provisional Estimates
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Any changes made to the projected estimates, using data which cover about half of the year under consideration
Provisional estimates are normally ready by September
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Revised Estimates
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Revision of the provisional figures is based on full year data for most of the sub-sectors.
The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the subsequent year (for e.g. Revised GDP estimates of 2007 were generated in April 2008)
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Final Estimates
25
The estimates are designated final when data for all the subsectors for the year under consideration are used to make adjustments in the revised estimates.
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REVISED ESTIMATES FOR 2008
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Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector -2008
27
Activity Projected Provisional
Intermediate Revision for Budget
Revised
Crops and Livestock
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.8
Cocoa 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Forestry and Logging
3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5
Fishing 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Total Agriculture
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.14
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Real Growth in the Industry Sector - 2008
28
Activity Projected Provisional
Intermediate Revision for Budget
Revised
Mining and Quarrying
8.0 14.0 2.0 2.1
Manufacturing
4.0 4.0 4.3 4.5
Production and Distribution of Electricity and Water
22.0
12.0
16.3
19.4
Construction 13.0 12.0 14.0 14.0Total Industry
9.7 10 8.3 8.1
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Real Growth in the Services Sector - 2008
29
Activity Projected Provisional Intermediate Revision for Budget 2009
Revised
Transport, Storage and Communication
10.0 8.0 10.0 8.9
Wholesale, Retail Trade, Hotels and Restaurants
10.0 7.0 7.0 10.2
Finance, Insurance, Real Estates and Business Services
13.0 13.0 13.0 9.6
Government Services 2.7 2.7 2.7 9.7Community , Social and Personal Services
6.0 4.5 4.5 4.5
Producers of Private Non-profit Services
6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Total Services 7.3 6.4 6.9 9.3
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Revised GDP estimates - 2008
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Indicator
Projected
Provisional
Intermediate Revision for Budget
Revised
GDP at factor cost
7.1 6.9 6.5 7.4
Net Indirect Taxes
6.0 4.6 4.6 6.2
GDP at Purchasers’ Value
7.0 6.7 6.2 7.3
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Final GDP Estimates for 2007(Millions of GH Cedis)
31
Economic Activity
Real GDP Nominal GDP
Agriculture 254.0 4,761.6
Industry 190.4 3,552.9
Service 231.5 4,503.8
GDP (in purchasers’ value)
741.2 14,045.8
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Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 (Millions of GH Cedis)
32
Economic Activity
Real GDP Nominal GDP
Agriculture 267.1 5,901.1
Industry 205.8 4,442.0
Service 252.9 5,740.5
GDP (in purchasers’ value)
795.1 17,617.6
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Major Indicators
33
INDICATORS ESTIMATE
S
Nominal GDP (in Million GH₵) 17,617.6
Real GDP (in Mill GH₵) 795.1
Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.3
GDP per Capita ( in GH₵) 753.5
GDP per Capita (in US$) 712.3
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WAY FORWORD
34
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Planned Activities
35
Rebasing of the national accounts- Changing the base year from 1993 to a more recent year
- Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach
- Compilation of more national accounts aggregates
Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly Economic Bulletin
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AcknowledgementThe Government Statistician wishes to extend her sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who in diverse ways, provide inputs for the compilation of the national accounts.
THANK YOU36
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