La sfida della scienza del clima

Antonio NavarraCentro euroMediterraneo per i

Cambiamenti Climatici

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De Meteorologica

However, all the mouths of the Nile, with the single exception of that at Canopus, are

obviously artificial and not natural. And Egypt was nothing more than what is called

Thebes, as Homer, too, shows, modern though he is in relation to such changes.

(...)

This happened to the land of Argos and Mycenae in Greece. In the time of the Trojan wars

the Argive land was marshy and could only support a small population, whereas the land

of Mycenae was in good condition. But now the opposite is the case, for the reason we have

mentioned: the land of Mycenae has become completely dry and barren, while the Argive

land that was formerly barren owing to the water has now become fruitful. Now the same

process that has taken place in this small district must be supposed to be going on over

whole countries and on a large scale.

(...)

So it is clear, since there will be no end to time and the world is eternal, that neither the

Tanais nor the Nile has always been flowing, but that the region whence they flow was

once dry: for their effect may be fulfilled, but time cannot. And this will be equally true

of all other rivers. But if rivers come into existence and perish and the same parts of the

earth were not always moist, the sea must needs change correspondingly. And if the sea is

always advancing in one place and receding in another it is clear that the same parts of

the whole earth are not always either sea or land, but that all this changes in course of

time.

De Meteorologica

However, all the mouths of the Nile, with the single exception of that at Canopus, are obviously artificial

and not natural. And Egypt was nothing more than what is called Thebes, as Homer, too, shows, modern

though he is in relation to such changes.

(…)

This happened to the land of Argos and Mycenae in Greece. In the time of the Trojan wars the Argive land

was marshy and could only support a small population, whereas the land of Mycenae was in good

condition. But now the opposite is the case, for the reason we have mentioned: the land of Mycenae has

become completely dry and barren, while the Argive land that was formerly barren owing to the water has

now become fruitful. Now the same process that has taken place in this small district must be supposed to

be going on over whole countries and on a large scale.

(…)

So it is clear, since there will be no end to time and the world is eternal, that neither the Tanais nor the Nile

has always been flowing, but that the region whence they flow was once dry: for their effect may be

fulfilled, but time cannot. And this will be equally true of all other rivers. But if rivers come into existence

and perish and the same parts of the earth were not always moist, the sea must needs change

correspondingly. And if the sea is always advancing in one place and receding in another it is clear that the

same parts of the whole earth are not always either sea or land, but that all this changes in course of time.

AristoteleRaffello, la Scuola di Atene

Atmosfera

Oceani

Il Sistema Clima

BIOSFERA

Umidita’ del Suolo

Fiumi

PrecipitazioniEvaporazione

Ghiaccio

Marino

The Climate Machine

Solar

Radiation

Earth Radiation

A scientific consideration of climate (I)

Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate

science

How is it possible a scientific investigation of

climate ?

A scientific consideration of climate (II)

We can make experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the

equation of climate.

We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary

operations.

The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods.

Every generation of numerical models is like a new, more powerful, telescope or particle accelerator and they will allow

us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

Valori massimi di anidride carbonica

L’anidride carbonica

Preliminary Results

il rapporto ar5 ipcc

wg 1

Il riscaldamento del sistema climatico è inequivocabile, e dal 1950 molti dei cambiamenti osservati sono senza precedenti nei precedenti decenni e millenni.

L'atmosfera e gli oceani si sono riscaldati, la massa di neve e ghiaccio è diminuita, e le concentrazioni di gas ad effetto serra sono aumentate.

È estremamente probabile che l'influenza umana sia stata la causa dominante del riscaldamento osservato dalla metà del 20° secolo.

RACCM Part I: AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION - Ch.2: Future Climate Projections

10

*(°C

/de

cad

e)

T2m trend 2001-2050 JJA

T2m trend 2001-2050 DJF

(mm

/day

)/d

eca

de

Precip trend 2001-2050 DJF

Precip trend 2001-2050 JJA

Section 2.2 and Section 2.3: SIMULATIONS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

CLIMATE AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS

T2m and Precipitation projected trends

RACCM Part I: AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION - Ch.2: Future Climate Projections

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SEA LEVEL CHANGE due to the STERIC EFFECT

computed from the CIRCE models

Section 2.2 and Section 2.3: SIMULATIONS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

CLIMATE AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS

Floods Return Period

The climate in 2014:the Arctic

e u r o p e

T e m p e r a t u r e

Trends in annual temperature in Europe (1960-

2012)

FROM:EEA 2012: “CL IMATE

CHANGE, IMPACTS AND

VULNERABIL ITY IN

EUROPE, AN INDICATOR -

BASED REPORT”

e u r o p e

p r e c i p i t a t i o n s

Trends in annual precipitation in Europe (1960-

2012)

FROM:EEA 2012: “CL IMATE

CHANGE, IMPACTS AND

VULNERABIL ITY IN

EUROPE, AN INDICATOR -

BASED REPORT”

How the

Climate

Changes

tmin, tmax

changes

Mid-latitude Regimes

Sahel Region

InterTropical Convergence Zone

Indian Monsoon

Planetary waves and

Westerlies

Summer

Indian

Monsoon

The Mediterranean Region

Main periods of use: SA90 (1990-

1992, not shown), IS92 (1992-

2000), SRES (2000-2012), RCPs

(2012+)

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global

Carbon Project 2012

Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios

how climate will impact

Increasing risks? Migrations, Health risks, conflicts around water scarcity

Increasing solidarity? food and energy, innovative thinking and technology, green growth scenarios

Policies will not be climate driven, but it will be difficult to formulate policy that does not take into account climate change issues.

Outcome will depend on progressive actors

• T r a d i t i o n a l r e d u c t i o n i s t

m o d e l i n s u f f i c i e n t

S t r e s s e s f r o m t h e w o r l d h a v e

p u s h e d s c i e n t i s t t o c o n s i d e r

m e s s y , m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l

p r o b l e m s .

E m e r g e n c e o f n e w t e c h n o l o g i e s

w i t h t h e p o t e n t i a l t o e m p o w e r

m a n y d i f f e r e n t f i e l d s

P r e s s u r e a g a i n s t t r a d i t i o n a l

d i s c i p l i n a r y b a r r i e r s i s

i n c r e a s i n g

universities have departments, society has problems

convergence

C O N V E R G E N C E I S T H E M E R G I N G O F D I S T I N C T T E C H N O L O G I E S ,

P R O C E S S I N G D I S C I P L I N E S , O R D E V I C E S I N T O A U N I F I E D W H O L E T H A T

C R E A T E S A H O S T O F N E W P A T H W A Y S A N D O P P O R T U N I T I E S . I T

I N V O L V E S T H E C O M I N G T O G E T H E R O F D I F F E R E N T F I E L D S T H R O U G H

C O L L A B O R A T I O N A M O N G R E S E A R C H G R O U P S A N D T H E I N T E G R A T I O N

O F A P P R O A C H E S T H A T W E R E O R I G I N A L L Y S E E N A S D I S T I N C T O R E V E N

CO NT RA DI CT O RY

I T I S A B R O A D R E T H I N K I N G O F H O W S C I E N T I F I C R E S E A R C H I S D O N E .

MIT White Paper

challenges

• Develop a common dictionary

• Revise evaluation criteria in academia and researc,

generally geared toward the individual

• Revise the value of networks

• Generate a new organisation of research

climate change is a converging science

The science of Climate is converging.

Numerical and mathematical modelling are providing the

context to share methods and concept, allowing faster

innovations, cheaper implementation and better solutions.

Leading the way is the dialogue between natural and

social sciences.