Presentation_HMCfinalJan30
-
Upload
robert-cheek -
Category
Documents
-
view
8 -
download
0
Transcript of Presentation_HMCfinalJan30
2
Road to robot nirvana littered with ‘zombies’
The walking dead—kept alive by grant money, and like zombies, they eat brains
• Public support Blurred vision of market, useless robots
• Engineering glasses, tech-focused view Ideas that fail to excite, disrupt, or fulfill demand
Unrealistic solutions; inability to disrupt
3
Technological hurdles
Challenges to develop service robotics
• Autonomous safe navigation
• Manipulate and physically interact with real world
• Perceive in unstructured environments (3d sensing)
• Human-robot interaction becoming commonplace
• Networks of robots, sensors and users
• Costs
All overcome within the past three years
4
Service Robot/ Robotech Acquisitions
M&As of AMR, CoBot, and other robotech makers
• Kuka acquires Swisslog logistics and pharmaceutical robots
• Amazon acquires Kiva logistics robots
• Google acquires robotics co’s in many fields humanoids, vision, AI, home automation, etc
• Apple acquires Primesense 3D sensing--3d printer app
5
Notable robotics investments in 2014
Investments in robotics players
2014: Qualcomm invests in neuroscience startup Brain Corp
2014: Intel Capital invests in PrecisonHawk; small drone data delivery
2014: Dyson invests USD8.2mn in robotics vision lab
2014: Blue River Technology reaps USD10mn for Lettuce Bot
2014: AI firm arago AG receives USD55mn investment
2014: 4moms awarded USD41mn in funding
2014: Mitsui invests USD3mn in Aethon, augmenting USD4mn from 2012
2014: Highland Capital Partners, Sigma Prime Ventures, CRV, GE Ventures,
Goldman Sachs invest USD27mn in Rethink Robotics
6
US investments in robotics in 2014
2011 2012 2013 2014Venture investments, total (USD mn)
61,300 52,700 54,600 86,600
Venture investments in robotics (USD mn)
157 196 235 341Source: Pregin, HMC Investment Securities 2014
8
Sales growth estimates
Growth areas
• Autonomous cars USD3.6bn/year by 2019
• Rehabilitation robots USD43.3mn in 2014 to USD1.8bn by 2020
• Agricultural robots USD817mn in 2013 to USD16.3bn by 2020
• Surgical robots USD32.2bn in 2012 to USD19.96bn by 2019
• Elderly and health care robots USD87bn by 2019
9
First Wave versus Second Wave Robots
First wave Second wave
Expensive: (large batches for ROI (ind.
bots)
Dangerous: caged, away from humans
Inflexible (fixed or limited functions)
Dumb: Simple repeated tasks
Disconnected: proprietary, closed
Inexpensive: lower-val. operations (var.
prod)
Safe: (uncaged, autonomous mobility)
Flexible: train/repurpose (no engineers)
Intelligent: learn and adjusts to
environment
Connected: leverages IoT; alone or in
groups
10
Long-term Opportunities
Rapid technological progress and social changes driving development
• Demographics Aging populations, worker shortages, political considerations
• Financial Public budget shortfalls; private cost-cutting initiatives; profit growth
Rising labor costs/ shortages/ falling robot costs
• Tech/ Hardware & Software Smartphone component sharing, etc, lower costs
ROS as industry standard accelerating development
11
Computer vs. Robotics Evolution I
Same but Different
• Product: Mainframe, mini/ Industrial vs. PCs/smart dev/ Service
• User: Gov’t/ Corp. vs. SME & consumer
• Business model : Purchase vs. Service
• Deployment: Computerization vs. Robotization
12
Computer versus Robotics Evolution II
ROS Opens Floodgates to Accelerated Development
• Kills Microsoft’s attempt to dominate robotics software market,
spurring growth Superior technology and faster interaction by developers
• Open-source approach and global collaboration accelerating
development Development challenges surmounted more quickly
• Challenges collaboratively solved empowers devs to focus on
specialized code Rapid prototyping, new applications/markets, new to robotics
13
Defense dominated by US gov’t, high barrier to entry
Beyond defense, three growth areas
• Agriculture UAVs, UGVs, autonomous vehicles, CoBots, IoT enabled frameworks
• Logistics CoBots, indoor and outdoor systems, etc
• Autonomous vehicles Fully/partial autonomy, autonomic enhancements
14
Area I: Logistics
Delivering greater efficiency
• Quell rising labor costs
• Fulfill tasks requiring immense precision and immaculate timing
• Simplify complex supply chains and connect networks
Logistics and material handling robot marketplace to reach USD31bn by
2020
15
Aethon/ Logistics I
TUG
• Focus on hospitals; deployed in more than 120 in the US alone
• 50k deliveries/week; travelled over 1mn miles
• ~450 units produced since 2004
• USD25k-USD100k/unit, depending on configuration
• USD1,000-USD2,000/mo RAAS, depending on configuration
16
Aethon/ Logistics II
Key technologies
• Beaconless navigation– stores map of the facility
• Connected to Command Center via WiFi to collect orders
• On-board sensors scan the environment
17
Yujin Robot/ Logistics
GoCart • d-SLAM navigation (dome simultaneous localization and mapping)
• Camera-based system; lower cost than lasers, more flexible
• ROCON platform (leverage existing IoT environments)
• Focus on elderly care meal transport
• Swarm-enabled platform
• Gastronorm-compliant meal transport trays
18
Area II: Agricultural robotics January, 2015
Fields of opportunity
• Global population to surpass 9bn by 2050; farms must increase production by 25%
• Shortages of water, fertilizer, and arable land to exacerbate the problem
• Agricultural labor supply rapidly decreasing in the developed world
Global ag robot market to grow from USD880mn
in 2013 to USD16.3bn in 2020
19
PrecisionHawk / Agriculture I January, 2015
Lancaster Platform UAV
• 3D terrain mapping, plant height, weed detection, plant count, crop health, etc
• Highly scalable; multiple sensor choices
• RaaS model, automated data processing in real time
• Deployed in multiple industries beyond agriculture
20
PrecisionHawk / Agriculture II January, 2015
Key technologies
• Platform• Small and light UAV
• Wide range of sensors• Visual
• Thermal
• LiDAR
• Multispectral
• Custom
Real-time data processing and availability in computer cloud
21
Area III: Autonomous vehicles January, 2015
The race is on
Category Value
Semi-autonomous passenger car market USD21.4bn by 2018/ CAGR of 15.08%
Robot car/ truck commercial autonomous car mkt
USD3.6bn by 2019
Driverless car market size forecast 20-30mn units in 2025-2030
Autonomous driving market USD60bn in 2030Source: eetimes
22
Autonomous Solutions (ASI) / Autonomous vehicles I January, 2015
Vendor-independent vehicle automation
systems
• Proven Customers include Anglo American LAPD, Ford, USAF
• Flexible Agriculture, mining, auto, gov’t , and manufacturing
• Economical Lower-cost and easier to integrate autonomous solution
23
Autonomous Solutions / Autonomous vehicles II January, 2015
Key technologies
• Obstacle detection and avoidance
systems
• Remote control, teleop, and full
automation kits
• Unmanned command and control
solution
24
Unmanned Solution / Autonomous vehicles I January, 2015
Vendor independent vehicle automation systems
• Comprehensive• UGV, UUV, UAV, integrated system design
• Proven• System operates on all platforms
• Superior view of automation landscae• Offers the automatous ‘glue’ to all systems