Presentation to the School BoardPresentation to the School Board

Facilities and OperationsFacilities and Operations

April 30, 2009April 30, 2009

Arlington Public Schools

Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan

FY 2010-15

Overview of the AFSAPOverview of the AFSAP

Purpose: Provide data about APS student Purpose: Provide data about APS student enrollment and building capacity to inform CIP and enrollment and building capacity to inform CIP and other decision-making processesother decision-making processes

Content includes:Content includes:– Enrollment/ProjectionsEnrollment/Projections– Housing Trends effecting EnrollmentHousing Trends effecting Enrollment– Capacity AnalysisCapacity Analysis– RelocatablesRelocatables

Areas of concern identified in the analysis of these Areas of concern identified in the analysis of these data are highlighted as data are highlighted as decision pointsdecision points

Fall 2008 EnrollmentFall 2008 Enrollment

Total APS enrollment: 19,534 studentsTotal APS enrollment: 19,534 students

K-12: 18,605K-12: 18,605

PreK: 929; 4.8% of APS populationPreK: 929; 4.8% of APS population

Increase of 785 K-12 students from last Increase of 785 K-12 students from last year year

Largest one-year increase going back to Largest one-year increase going back to 19601960

Total K-12 and PreK-12 Enrollment (September 30th), 1961-2008

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

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1974

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1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

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1991

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1994

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1997

1998

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2001

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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

K-12 Enrollment

PreK-12 Enrollment

Total PreK-12 and K-12 Enrollment(September 30th), 1990 - 2008

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Year

To

tal K

-12

Po

pu

lati

on

K-12 Enrollment

PreK-12 Enrollment

Enrollment Change 2005 to 2008 – Elementary Schools (K-5)

Enrollment Change 2005 to 2008 – Secondary Schools

K-12 Enrollment Projections 2009-2014

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Stu

den

ts

5 Year Forecast

3 Year Forecast

5 Year Average

3 Year Average

3 Year Weighted Average

Fall 2009 Projected EnrollmentFall 2009 Projected Enrollment

Projecting an increase of 467 K-12 students Projecting an increase of 467 K-12 students (2.5%) from this year to next(2.5%) from this year to next

This year, all out years have been updated This year, all out years have been updated based on Spring numbersbased on Spring numbers

Year PreK Elementary Middle High K-12 Total

PreK-12

Total

2009 1,058 9,568 3,969 5,535 19,072

20,130

2010 1,058 9,887 4,128 5,614 19,629

20,687

2011 1,058 10,210 4,271 5,743 20,224

21,282

2012 1,058 10,391 4,577 5,843 20,811

21,869

2013 1,058 10,481 4,841 6,103 21,425

22,483

2014 1,058 10,516 5,178 6,364 22,057

23,116

Student Generation FactorStudent Generation Factor

Housing TypeAPS Students

% Students by Type

Countywide Units

% of County Housing Type

Generation Factor 08-09

Single Family Detached 10933 57% 27521 28% 0.40

Apartment - Garden 4017 21% 15316 15% 0.26

Apartment - Elevator 1483 8% 25725 26% 0.06

Duplex 1008 5% 2231 2% 0.45

Condo - Garden 794 4% 10726 11% 0.07

Condo - Elevator 499 3% 14845 15% 0.03

Townhouse 413 2% 3371 3% 0.12

TOTAL 19147 100% 99735 100.00% 0.19

Generation Factor ChangesGeneration Factor ChangesHousing Type

04-05 Generation Factor

08-09 Generation Factor

04-05 % Students by Type

08-09 % Students by Type

Single Family Detached 0.35 0.40 51% 57%

Apartment - Garden 0.27 0.26 24% 21%

Apartment - Elevator 0.07 0.06 9% 8%

Duplex 0.46 0.45 5% 5%

Condo - Garden 0.07 0.07 3% 4%

Condo - Elevator 0.04 0.03 2% 3%

Townhouse 0.09 0.12 2% 2%

TOTAL 0.20 0.19 100% 100%

Neighborhood Generation FactorsNeighborhood Generation Factors

Metro Station Area

APS Students

Total Housing

UnitsGeneration

Factor

Ballston 435 7729 0.06

Clarendon 199 2771 0.07

Columbia Pike 2670 9587 0.28

Crystal City 210 7131 0.03

Courthouse 544 7390 0.07

East Falls Church 63 589 0.11

Four Mile Run Crescent 14 27 0.52

Lee Highway 828 4830 0.17

Nauck 229 602 0.38

Pentagon City 106 4979 0.02

Rosslyn 381 6866 0.06

Shirlington 304 2781 0.11

Virginia Square 248 3618 0.07

Housing Type by RaceHousing Type by Race

Housing Type by RaceAsian

n=2016Black

n=2372Hispanicn=5270

AmericanIndiann=24

Notspecified

n=398White

n=9067

Apartment - Garden 25.4% 38.0% 43.4% 25.0% 17.1% 2.7%

Apartment - Elevator 15.7% 12.7% 8.5% 4.2% 11.6% 4.1%

Single Family Detached 39.0% 29.2% 28.1% 54.2% 53.5% 85.4%

Duplex 6.2% 10.2% 9.8% 8.3% 4.5% 1.2%

Townhouse 3.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.0% 2.0% 2.1%

Condo - Garden 4.9% 4.6% 4.9% 0.0% 6.8% 3.3%

Condo - Elevator 5.4% 2.4% 3.9% 8.3% 4.5% 1.2%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Capacity Utilization TablesCapacity Utilization Tables

Capacity AnalysisCapacity Analysis

School Year 2009-10School Year 2009-10

Building capacity: Building capacity: 20,55320,553

Utilization rate: Utilization rate: 95.4% 95.4%

Countywide seats Countywide seats available: 942available: 942

School Year 2014-15School Year 2014-15

Building capacity: Building capacity: 20,55320,553

Utilization rate: Utilization rate: 109.5%109.5%

Countywide seats Countywide seats available : -1,949available : -1,949

2009 Capacity Utilization

2014 Capacity Utilization

2014 Capacity Utilization

2009 Capacity Utilization

2009 Capacity Utilization

2014 Capacity Utilization

Relocatables Projected 09-10Relocatables Projected 09-10

48 relocatables 48 relocatables unitsunits

Down over 50% Down over 50% (79 units) from (79 units) from 127 units in 127 units in Summer 2004Summer 2004

SchoolSingle

(14x60)Double (24x36)

OtherSize Total

Barcroft 11     11

Barrett   1   1

Jefferson   1   1

McKinley   2   2

HB Woodlawn   1   1

Stratford     1 1

Nottingham   3   3

Tuckahoe   6   6

Williamsburg 12   1 13

Yorktown 9     9

Total 23 14 2 48

Decision PointsDecision PointsProvide direction to staff on: Provide direction to staff on:

Developing a long-term plan for continuation of leased administrative Developing a long-term plan for continuation of leased administrative space (or other options) for programs and support functions currently space (or other options) for programs and support functions currently housed in leased spaces including the Clarendon Education Center, housed in leased spaces including the Clarendon Education Center, Syphax Academic Center, and Employee Assistance Program offices.Syphax Academic Center, and Employee Assistance Program offices.

Moving forward with plans to redevelop the Wilson School site to Moving forward with plans to redevelop the Wilson School site to include an elementary school or look for other options to increase include an elementary school or look for other options to increase elementary school student capacity.elementary school student capacity.

Consolidating our two high school continuation programs into a single Consolidating our two high school continuation programs into a single facility.facility.

Revising the 5/7th secondary school capacity model.Revising the 5/7th secondary school capacity model.

When to consider boundary changes or other actions to alleviate When to consider boundary changes or other actions to alleviate crowding at the secondary level. crowding at the secondary level.

AFSAP WebsiteAFSAP Website

All information found on AFSAP available All information found on AFSAP available on APS websiteon APS website

Updates to information Updates to information

More maps, tables, linksMore maps, tables, links

http://www.apsva.us/afsaphttp://www.apsva.us/afsap

Questions?Questions?