Presentation to the Minnesota House of Representatives ... · solutions to counter this slow down....
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Presentation to the Minnesota House of Representatives, Jobs and Economic Development Finance Division Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer January 31, 2019
Transcript of Presentation to the Minnesota House of Representatives ... · solutions to counter this slow down....
Presentation to the Minnesota House of Representatives,Jobs and Economic Development Finance Division
Susan Brower, Minnesota State DemographerJanuary 31, 2019
Minnesota’s population at-a-glance
• Minnesota’s 2018 population was estimated to be 5,611,179
• Minnesota's population grew 5.8% between 2010 and 2018, adding 307,254 residents. 1.4%
2.1%
5.8%
6.0%
8.4%
8.9%
Northeast
Midwest
Minnesota
U.S.
West
South
Population Growth, 2010-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
Po
Population Change in Minnesota
2010-2017
Majority of the growth (83%) occurred in 7-county metro
• MN grew by 274,000 in 7 years
• Hennepin and Ramsey added 135,00 jointly
Source: MN State Demographic Center and Metropolitan Council Annual Estimates
Minneapolis 41,412St. Paul 24,112Rochester 9,052Blaine 8,183Woodbury 7,465Plymouth 6,306Lakeville 6,039Bloomington 5,992Moorhead 5,375Maple Grove 5,247Brooklyn Park 5,085Edina 4,556Shakopee 4,443Eagan 4,282Rogers 4,156
Minnesota’s 15 Fastest Growing Cities 2010-2017
Population Aging5
85 55 71 67
47 91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Number of additional older adults, age 65+ (thousands)
This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population
This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population
85 55 71 67
47 91
285
335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89
90+
Population by age and sexMinnesota, 2015
Baby Boomers
GenX
Millennials
Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections
The transition to an older Minnesota has just begun
First boomer turns 65
You are here
First boomer turns 80
Last boomer turns 65
Last boomer turns 80
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Minnesota’s labor force growth is projected to slow furtherover the next 10 years
40,000
54,000
34,000
21,000
7,000 6,000 6,000 9,000
13,000 15,000 15,000
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
19
80
-19
90
19
90
-20
00
20
00
-20
10
20
10
-20
15
20
15
-20
20
20
20
-20
25
20
25
-20
30
20
30
-20
35
20
35
-20
40
20
40
-20
45
20
45
-20
50
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (1980—2015) & MN State Demographic Center Projections (2015-2045)
Greater Minnesota will likely continue to be impacted by labor force shortages
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Older Minnesotans are working longer than in the past,but they are still retiring in large numbers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16
-19
20
-21
22
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-61
62
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
+
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION BY AGEMINNESOTA, 1990 AND 2015
1990 2015Source: IPUMS-USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.
Migration fuels the growth of Minnesota’s labor force
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,0001
99
1
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
International Net Domestic Net Total Net Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Population Estimates Program
Source: Minnesota Job Vacancies Survey, MN DEED 14
Largest number of vacancies in health care, retail, food service
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Job Vacancies by Industry and Median Wage
Number of vacancies Median Wage
Source: Minnesota Job Vacancies Survey, MN DEED, 2018 Q2
Slower workforce growth could mean slower economic growth
If the number of workers in Minnesota is to remain stable or to decline, the only way for the economy to grow is through the increased productivity of each worker.
That means Minnesota will need:
• Better alignment of workers and jobs (geographic & skills matches)
• To increase the value of the goods and services that each worker creates. To do this, workers will need higher-order educational attainment and skills training.
• To continue to be selective about the economic development activities that the state supports.
But what about automation?
Source: McKinsey & Company, 2016
Trends in Racial and Ethnic Diversity
Populations of Color now jointly total more than 1 million in MN, 20% of the population
American Indian, 53,275
Asian, 269,799
Black, 357,381
Latino, 295,970
Other/Multiracial, 146,160
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Growth of Populations of ColorMinnesota 1960-2017
Source: ipums.org from U.S. Census Bureau data
Minnesota is more racially diverse at younger agesMinnesota 2017
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Minnesota, 2017
Of Color
White Non-Hispanic
32% Of Color
4% Of Color
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
Take aways
• Work force growth has slowed and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
• Domestic and international immigration and automation are the only quick solutions to counter this slow down.
• Longer-term solutions include raising the skills profile and educational attainment of workers.
• Achievement gaps by race could threaten economic growth as Minnesota’s work force grows increasingly diverse.
