Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

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Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013 Maximo Torero Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division Director IFPRI Using Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition
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Using Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition . Maximo Torero Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division Director IFPRI. Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory CommitteeDecember 12, 2013Maximo ToreroMarkets, Trade, and InstitutionsDivision DirectorIFPRIUsing Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition 1OverviewThe Challenge: Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.The Opportunity: Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?A4NH Theme 1 Research: How is it embracing this opportunity?

The ChallengeIncome growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.

Income Growth Can Reduce Child Stunting, But Other Actions Needed

A 10% increase in GDP/PC leads to a 6% reduction in stunting

Source: Ruel and Alderman, 2013How far can income take us? A Changing Focus for Agriculture and NutritionIncreased calorie production and incomes no longer seen as agricultures only role in improved nutritionFocus on how agriculture influences other important determinants of child stuntingWomens empowerment, education, time Sanitation and water qualityNutrient density and diet quality/diversity

Dietary TransitionDiet shift from staples base to other foods is well-known development outcomeHealthy diet diversity includes vegetables, fruits, legumes, animal source foodsDocumented link to improved micronutrient density and nutrition outcomes at micro levelUndesirable increase in fats, sugars, processed foods now occurring at lower income levels with food system modernizationEmerging double burden of over and under nutrition in many countries

Diet Diversification: Food Group Shares (kcal/cap/day)Starchy staplesStarchystaplesNutrientRich FoodsNutrientRich FoodsFats and SugarsFats and SugarsData Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2009Total cal/day are around 2500 and 3200. Starchy staples are grains, roots, and tubers. These are 80 and 50 % of calories. Nutrient rich foods includes dairy, eggs, meats and fish, legumes and nuts. These are 10 and 32 %. Fats and sugars are unhealthy dietary diversity 10 and 18 %.7Summary: Income Growth Not Sufficient for Desired NutritionIncome not perfect driver for improved diets, nutritionLags in reducing stunting; emerging double burdenImproved diets mean increases in diet diversity and consumption of nutrient rich foodsMicronutrient density and relationship to nutrition at micro level well-establishedPotential for unhealthy diversity reinforced by structural trends in urbanization, retailing

The OpportunityCan value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?

Why Income Growth is Not Sufficient: Market Failures and Diet QualityConsumer knowledge incompletenutrition, nutrient content/ safety of foodsSupply constraints for nutrient rich foodsperishability, seasonality, variable nutrient content, food safety, transportResult: Under-provision of improved nutrition and food safety

IncomeDiet quality improves through diversification, but slowly and unevenlyPricesRelative prices eg., staples prices declining relative to more nutrient rich foodsOpportunity cost of time eg., switch to more processed foods with urbanizationPreferences and cultural normsShape pathway towards diet diversity, eg. ASF increases with income vary widelyGiven the many market failures that can arise in nutrition, it is not surprising that improvements in diet and in nutritional outcomes do not track perfectly with development and rising incomes.10Are There Also Public Failures?Public focus on staple crops means underinvestment in nutrient rich foodsPulses in IndiaPublic focus on meeting food safety standards for high income market access means underinvestment in public health oriented food safetyAflatoxins

Given the many market failures that can arise in nutrition, it is not surprising that improvements in diet and in nutritional outcomes do not track perfectly with development and rising incomes.11Inputs into productionFood productionFood storage and processingFood distribution and transportFood retail and labelingValue Chain ApproachConsumerProducer Supply sideDevelop and test solutionsDemand sideCharacterize diets, market access and constraints to consumption of nutritious, safe foods Test solutions to improve demand for nutrition and safety along the value chainIdentify production and market constraints to improved nutrition and safetyExample: Increased seasonal availability of fruitExample: Nutrition education delivered by vegetable seed supplierTechnologiesImprovements in production, storage, handling, processing, or marketing to reduce nutritional loss, improve access, or reduce safety risks, eg. Greater seasonal availability for fruitsInformationIncreased demand for improved safety and nutrition through education or improved incentives for different actors in the value chain, eg. Nutrition education with improved vegetable seedsNutritional quality reflected in prices and/or made more affordable, eg., quality certification for locally sourced infant foodsPolicies and InstitutionsNew contractual arrangements create incentives to deliver more nutrient rich foods or to create demand for such foods, eg. Home grown school lunch programs

12Elements of This ApproachEach value chain study for a nutrient-rich food should include all of these elements: Dietary and nutritional assessment of target populationIdentification of key foods to improve / diversify dietsMapping of the value chain for these foodsIdentification of constraints to supply and to demandDeveloping and/or testing interventionsIdentification of enabling policiesAssessment of diet quality impact in target population

CChanges in Value Chains that Could Improve NutritionTechnologiesImprovements in production, storage, handling, processing, or marketing to reduce nutritional loss, improve access, or reduce safety risks, eg. Greater seasonal availability for fruitsInformationIncreased demand for improved safety and nutrition through education or improved incentives for different actors in the value chain, eg. Nutrition education with improved vegetable seedsNutritional quality reflected in prices and/or made more affordable, eg., Quality certification for locally sourced infant foodsPolicies and InstitutionsNew contractual arrangements create incentives to deliver more nutrient rich foods or to create demand for such foods, eg. Home grown school lunch programs

Note how they address MARKET FAILURES14Value Chain Impacts at Market / Whole Diet Level?Develop markets for high value cropsIncrease income for producersReduce relative prices of nutrient rich foodsIncrease consumer access to healthy diversityLeverage market incentives to enhance nutritional outcomes from marketsPartnerships with private sector to direct market development towards better nutritionCan this provide the foundation for a more healthy dietary transition?

15A4NH Theme 1 Research How is A4NH research embracing this opportunity and leveraging existing CGIAR expertise?

Building theA4NH Portfolio2012Centers: Bioversity, IFPRI, IITA, ICRAF, WorldFish Smallest share of A4NH budget 2013Seed Grants Awarded to Foster New Research, MarchWorkshop for Program Development, JuneNew Research Staff at IFPRI, September Aflatoxin Vision 2020 Policy Briefs, NovemberExpanded Partnerships: AVDRC, Tufts, IDS, GAIN

Leveraging Production TechnologiesSeasonality and Vitamin C content of mango (ICRAF)Biocontrol of aflatoxin in maize and groundnut (IITA and ICRISAT)Infant food development using small fish (WorldFish)VC Research role: Test market viability and nutritional impact from these technologies

Leveraging thePrivate SectorDanone-Grameen fortified yoghurt ventureIncome enhancement for poor womenNutrition enhancement for vulnerable groupsVegetable seed suppliers in Bangladesh and KenyaNutrition messages with production extensionEncourage home consumptionExpand demand to support expanded supplyVC Research role: Validate responsible efforts; Identify scalable opportunities

Leveraging Market Incentives for Reduced AflatoxinsAflatoxins naturally occurring and can enter or multiply at any stage from production to consumptionMarket solutions to improve/reward control:Testing and certification through maize millersAlternate uses, eg., oil processing, animal feedsTraining and product testing delivered through farmer organizationsBiocontrol adoption linked to feed marketsVC Research role: Test market interventions

Leveraging Dedicated Supply ChainsHome Grown School Feeding ProgramsDevelop and reward local supply chains for school feedingPromote nutrition education linked to local foodsSupport child nutrition, school performance, habit formationVC Research role: measure nutrition, education, and market synergies

Research Finding Highlight:Health Benefits and Agricultural ContractsExperimental Evidence from Northern SenegalResearch question: Can health-related incentives be used to improve contract enforcement with small-scale agricultural suppliers?Can existing value chain logistics be leveraged to increase health conditions in remote locations?

Context: Semi-nomadic milk producers, very remote locationMilking efforts by women, cash collected by menHighly unreliable milk supply, particularly in dry seasonExtreme level of anemia prevalence for children in the area (82% anemic, 15% severe anemic).

StudyRandomized control trial amongst 430 milk supliers to te LDBContract for x liters/day per lactating cows for all suppliers. Half of the producers receive iron fortified porridge for children upon satisfaction of contract on weekly basis.

-.10.1.2Jan 27Feb 17Mar 10Mar 31Apr 21May 12Jun 2Jun 23Jul 14Aug 4Aug 25Sep 15Note: Impact parameter estimate for separate impact estimates ran each week. Lowess smoothing function used across estimates. Dahes lines are 95% confidence interval

Note: Generalized propensity score estimate used to deal with endogeneity of treatment intensity. Green and red lines are 95% confidence intervalClear and significant effect on milk delivery during dry seasonOrder of magnitude: 10 percentage point (=30%) higher contract fulfillment in treatment group in early June.Positive dose-response effect on childrens health (Hemoglobin level)Order of magnitude: 1.25 g/dl Hemoglobin increase for 16 weeks of continuous fortified poridge intake.

Research Finding Highlight:Health Benefits and Agricultural ContractsExperimental Evidence from Northern Senegal

Research Plan Highlight: Testing Incentives for Aflatoxin ControlResearch Goal: To test the demand for maize that meets an aflatoxin standard and the profitability of a certification systemCollaboration with Cereal Millers Association of Kenya3rd party certified maize offered at different prices compared to untested maizeInformation effects tested through random advertising campaigns

Looking Forward to 2015 and BeyondWhat policies support healthy food systems? Integrated policy studies in focus countries:Value chains for nutrient rich foodsNutrition information policiesMarket institutions for food qualityPrice and agricultural investment policies

See Montpelier paper for background25Thank you!For more information on A4NH Value Chain Research: http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org/our-research/value-chains-for-enhanced-nutrition/