Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick,...

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Presentation to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of Private Equity Brian O’Callaghan, CEO Compass Asset Management Michael Sauer, CEO Visor Holding, Director Tau Capital Plc

Transcript of Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick,...

Page 1: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

Presentation to Investors

May 2012

Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc

Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity

Michael Adams, Head of Private Equity

Brian O’Callaghan, CEO Compass Asset Management

Michael Sauer, CEO Visor Holding, Director Tau Capital Plc

Page 2: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

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The near term is likely to be marked by significant uncertainty and volatility…however, the outlook beyond remains very positive.

Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Central Asia remain compelling in the medium term and beyond

  Kazakh economic growth remains strong, external debt substantially reduced since crisis, FX rates and reserves are stable, inflation is trending down

  The investment climate and corporate governance is improving   Long awaited banking sector policy adjustments have begun

  Market conditions and liquidity are likely to improve, aided by IPOs and changes to pension investment rules

For Tau Capital, this means:   The market offers great value, political succession risk and negative headlines are more than priced in

  Very attractive equity valuations, at 1-2 std’s below historical means

  Increased and improved Private Equity opportunities

Tau Capital and Compass Asset Management will continue to pursue these opportunities with an absolute commitment to shareholders

  Ongoing discount management

  Continued commitment to transparency

  On the ground presence, international fund management best practices and robust parent company support

The Outlook – Medium to Long term

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 Natural Resources wealth  Natural Resources at spot prices ≈ $500,000 per capita  Oil: 3% of global reserves, 40bn barrels Current production rate: 1.7mn boepd (to double over next decade) Top 10 Global Oil Producer after Kashagan reaches full capacity  Gas: 1.1% of global resources, 1.90tcm  Uranium: 15% of global reserves, #1 Global producer

 Stable social, economic and political environment

 Economics: strong GDP growth above 6% 2012e   CPI trending down, 4.8% YoY (Apr 2012)   Real wage growth 9.9% YoY (Mar 2012)   FDI $24.5bn, forecast 2012

 Bank sector recovery   Tax exemption provision for commercial banks on certain write-offs

(reduction to 0% from 20%, valid until YE2012)

  Sector’s NPL declined 5.6% YTD to 33.1% (as of 1 Apr 2012)

 Investment environment improving   Corporate governance makes all the headlines in Europe  Market conditions likely to change: liquidity improvements, IPOs, pension

allocations

  Coal: 3% of global proven reserves   3rd rank of global reserves in silver, copper, zinc and lead   6th in gold and coal

  Stable FX  National Bank Foreign Reserves $86bn, 47% of 2011GDP   Successful deleveraging

-  Total external debt down from 105% of GDP in 2009 to 78% in 2012e

  Sector NPL coverage (ex. BTA & Alliance) grew 2.4% YTD to 93%   Commercial bank external debt down from 28% of GDP in 2009

to 11% in 2012e

 World Bank Survey, “Doing Business 2012”: Kazakhstan ranks 47 out of 183 (prev.58) - strong progress in the “Protecting Investors” category

  The Heritage Foundation 2012 Index of Economic Freedom: Kazakhstan ranks 65 out of 179 (prev.78)

The Investment Case for Kazakhstan

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Sources: Bloomberg, http://www.gustaviadavegardh.se/fonder/kazakhstan.aspx

Comparative Performance

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Sources: Bloomberg; Compass Asset Management Company Index returns: Price appreciation

*NAV per share (Daily basis)

Tau Capital Performance vs. Benchmarks

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Public Equity Strategy

 Global economy still in the midst of massive deleveraging process

 Macro indicators, Eurozone political debacle and monetary responses continue to drive markets

 Developed markets causing global contagion and volatility in the near term

 However, the long term fundamental case for the Central Asian Region remains intact

 Commodity prices remain elevated

 Market is overly bearish on Chinese economic slowdown

 Regional investment environment is improving -  Liquidity improvements, corporate governance, IPOs, pension allocations -  Mongolian elections at the end of June paves the way for political stability

 Central Asian equity valuations are currently at very attractive levels

 Sell-off in commodity stocks has led to earnings multiples at 1-2 std’s below historical means

 Markets are oversold with very negative sentiment  Equity market is likely to repeat the pattern of 2010 and 2011 : Advance..correction..recovery

 Soon time to start layering into high beta names and increase overall exposure

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Sources: Compass Asset Management Company

Public Equity Portfolio Structure

Exposure decreased YTD after substantial increase at the end of 2011

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Very attractive valuations in Central Asia

Page 9: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

Uranium One (5.4% of NAV)   Lowest cost producer: $19/lb 2012

guidance, but likely to outperform   Consistently meeting targets   Supply / demand fundamentals in

Uranium sector very attractive   Connections: ARMZ/ROSATOM;

partnership with KazAtomProm   Near-term growth:

  2012/13: +8% pa to 12.5m lbs   KZ assets ramping up on sched

  Medium-term growth platform:   Option to acquire Mkuju River

  Favourable entry point: EV/fwd EBITDA at 4.2x is -1.6 StD’s below MEAN; +32%(e) 5y CAGR EPS growth

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Mongolia Mining Corporation (2.7% of NAV)

  Fast-growing Mongolian-owned supplier of coking coal to China

  853mnt resource; 54% reserves   Successful 2011 ramp-up:

  7.1mt produced   Ave price: $114/t

  Mongolia #1 coking coal to China   Infrastructure projects:

  Road to Chinese border complete   Phase 1 of coal washing facility

commissioned in Q2 2011   Rail link key mid-term project

  Gradually eliminating middleman   EV/fwd EBITDA at 5.8x is -1.0 StD’s

below MEAN

Source: Bloomberg; EBITDA forecast is 12m fwd blended

Mongolian coking coal for China; low-cost uranium production

Page 10: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

Kazakhmys (1.6% of NAV)   Long mine lives; huge resource base   Excellent relationships with buyers:

90% of sales contracted   Strong Kazakhstan political

connections   Funding secured for long-term growth

projects   Challenges include cost inflation and

project development risks   Stake in ENRC a steady earnings

contributor, but a non-core asset   EV/fwd EBITDA at 3.7x is -1.5 StD’s

below MEAN

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ENRC (3.1% of NAV)   Extremely high quality assets   Lowest cost producer of FeCr   South African competitors higher cost,

especially due to power costs   Strong Kaz political connections   Strong generator of cash flow

  $2.2bn CFO in 2011   44% EBITDA margin

  Challenges include cost inflation and managing global assets

  Significant discount to global peers: (24%); EV/fwd EBITDA at 3.4x is -1.1 StD’s below MEAN

Source: Bloomberg; EBITDA forecast is 12m fwd blended

Kazakh copper for China; low-cost ferrochrome production

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Dragon Oil (6.2% of NAV)   Growth: +30% in 2011; 2012-15 target

annual prod. growth of 10-15% pa   2011 exit production rate: 71kboepd:

2015 goal: 100kboepd   2011 Revenue $1.2bn (+47% YoY)   2011 EBITDA $1.1bn (+55% YoY)   2P reserves: 658mmboe; API 35-45°   Potential takeover target; acquirer

  Net cash: $1.8bn

  Cheap growth: 42% discount to peers   2.0x EV/fwd EBITDA   -1.7 StD’s from MEAN

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Zhaikmunai LP (7.2% of NAV)   2P reserves: 522mboe (45% gas)   High quality oil: similar to WTI specs; API

gravity 40-41.5°   2011 exit rate: 37kboepd; 3-year target

is 100kboepd   2011 Revenue $301m (+69% YoY)   2011 EBITDA $197m (+99% YoY)   Potential takeover target   61% (e) 4-year CAGR EPS growth   Valuation:

  2.9x EV/fwd EBITDA   -1.3 StD’s from MEAN

Source: Bloomberg; EBITDA forecast is 12m fwd blended

Cheap access to fast-growing oil production

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Centerra Gold (2.5% of NAV)   Major gold producer with operations in

Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia   Kyrgyz Gov’t 1/3 owner; protection   M&I resource: 14.7Moz (55% reserves)   Gold output in 2011 642koz   2011 revenue US$1.0bn (+20% YoY)   2011 EBITDA US$613mn (+22% YoY)   Reaction to recent deferred production

announcement overdone   Valuation:

  3.6x EV/fwd EBITDA   -2.2 StD’s from MEAN

  3-year EPS growth: 20% CAGR (e)

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Polymetal (4.7% of NAV)   Gold and silver producer with operations in

Russia and Kazakhstan   M&I resource: 19.9Moz (72% reserves)   Gold production 443koz and silver output

20moz in 2011   Total cash costs: $701/oz AuEq; negatively

affected by ramp-ups   2011 revenue $1,326m (+43% YoY)   2011 EBITDA $624mn (+47% YoY)   Valuation:

  4.9x EV/fwd EBITDA   -1.7 StD’s from MEAN

  4-year EPS growth: 23% CAGR (e)

Source: Bloomberg; EBITDA forecast is 12m fwd blended

Attractively-priced major gold producers

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Michael Adams – Head of Private Equity

 Michael succeeded David Herbada after a two month overlap.

 Michael has over 14 years’ experience working in private equity, most of that in emerging and frontier markets.

 Immediately prior to joining CAM, Michael was Managing Director for approximately two years at Pantek Partners LLC, in California and Doha, Qatar.

 Prior to that he spent nearly 4 years at Lonestar Ventures LLP in Moscow and Bahrain, a year in Kabul with Acap Partners, and 5 years at Distribution Partners Investment Capital LLP in the US.

g

 Michael holds an MBA from Thunderbird, a BA in Russian Studies from Haverford College, is a CFA Charterholder and is fluent in Russian and Arabic.

Investment Management Team – Update

Page 14: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

Private Equity Portfolio  Dec 2011

 Conversion into equity of the remaining 16.35% interest in Stopharm -  Tau directly holds a 40.35% equity interest

 Jan 2012

 Conversion into equity of the Convertible Bridge Loan provided to Lucent -  Tau directly holds a 6.18% equity interest

 May 2012

 Sale-Purchase Agreement signed for the full sale of interest in Alem Communications Holding LLP, proceeds expected early June 2012

-  Total expected gross proceeds in the amount of ~$19.56M prior to deduction of taxes and expenses

-  US dollar exit at cost, although representing a small decrease from current carrying value of $21.1mn (less than 1% of NAV)

-  In local currency terms, exit proceeds were KZT 500 million above the invested amount of KZT 2,388 million, illustrating the impact of the Feb 2009 Tenge devaluation (~20%) on the US dollar returns

-  Exit value implies EV/subscriber multiple of $605

 25% write-down of Lucent investment by Board of Directors -  Write-down due to extension of timeline to determine commerciality of Lebyazhye well

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Significant Portfolio Activity

Page 15: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

 Structure of Investment   40.35% equity stake

  Total consideration $21.5M   Substantial minority rights, Board representation and active involvement

 Financial performance*   4M2012 Revenues increased +37% compared to budgeted revenues reaching $98.2M

  Gross Profit for 4M2012 +43.7% above budget, reaching $13.8M   4M2012 EBITDA reached $7.8M, 154% higher than budgeted with EBITDA margin of 8% vs. 4.3% budgeted

 Exit strategy   Trade sale to another major international distributor

  Listing on an internationally recognized stock exchange (several Emerging Markets pharma distributors currently listed worldwide)

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*Important note: All financials shown are provisional and derived from management accounts. Subject to review and restatement

Private Equity Investment – Stopharm LLP

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*Important note: All financials shown are provisional and derived from management accounts. Subject to review and restatement

Private Equity Investment – Lucent Petroleum LLP

 Structure of investment   6.18% equity stake

  Total consideration $15M, current carrying value $11.25M   Substantial rights and Board representation post conversion

  25% write-down based on extension of timeline to determine commerciality of Lebyazhye well

 Operational and Financial highlights*   Lucent raised additional funds (Q4 2011) in the amount of $30M through third party financing   Net cash position is $20.3M

  South Prorva did not encounter commercial hydrocarbons, the well reached in total a depth of 3,863m

  Lebyazhye reservoir encountered hydrocarbons at a depth of ~3,480m and 3,617m

  Seismic analysis continuing in east of license region, cube expected in June

 Exit strategy   Listing / IPO on AIM or another internationally recognized exchange post-drilling program as pre-agreed with majority

shareholder   Trade sale to strategic investor also possible

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 Many of the funds established through Kazyna Capital Management are inactive   Distressed investees over-leveraged during the boom, banks (the key) are intransigent

  Picky investees have had access to cheap money in the past, making valuations difficult

 Family groups are best performing but are not institutional…yet

 Positive changes in landscape:   Customs Union

  Oligarch transitions

 Compass Asset Management continues to identify and analyse an attractive pipeline of potential investments for the Tau portfolio

  Sourced through Visor network or directly by Compass

  One deal potentially ready for investment by July / August

Private Equity – Views on the investment climate

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 On 20th February 2012 the Board of Tau announced a share buy back programme for up to 10% of shares to address the discount between the market price of the Company’s shares and NAV.

 Since the beginning of the buy back programme until the end of April, 6.8% of shares were purchased by the Fund for the total amount of $6.908M, at a weighted average price of $0.4279 per share.

 The change in the Fund’s NAV per share was positively affected by +2.37 ppts YTD due to the execution of the share buy back programme.

 Since initiation of buy back programme, the share price discount to NAV has decreased from ~33.8% to ~22.8% as of May 18, 2012.

Buy Back Programme

Page 19: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

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Public Equity

 Volatility expected to continue in the near term due to EU zone uncertainty and global contagion.

 However, the investment case for the Central Asian Region remains intact. Global markets are showing signs of bottoming out. Valuations at current levels are very attractive.

 Looking to increase Public Equity exposure.

Private Equity 

 Lucent: consider seismic findings carefully, there is adequate runway, bulk up with alternatives for sale.

 Stopharm: assist business to progress beyond public revenues, buttress finance function, assist with sources of financing.

 Pipeline: continue to source potential deals through Compass and Visor networks, as well as explore follow-on rounds in 3rd party portfolios.

Conclusion

Page 20: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

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 Central Asia’s leading asset manager with AuM of ~$180m invested in public markets and private equity

 Thoroughly experienced team with substantial track record (Central Asia, Russia and Mongolia)

 Local presence, local knowledge

  Based in Almaty, Kazakhstan   Wide and deep network in target geographies, direct and through parent group Visor Holding, the largest

investment group in Central Asia

 International profile, institutional investors

  Operations run in accordance with the highest institutional standards -  Investment Manager to Tau Capital (~$130m AuM) listed on AIM in London (TAU LN) -  Investment Manager to Kazakh Compass Fund (~$50m AuM) listed on ISE in Dublin

  Analytical expertise across all sectors

 Robust organisation: core investment team of 7 investment professionals, including expats and locals

 Top tier service providers: Morgan Stanley (prime brokerage), Ogier (legal), Deloitte (audit), HSBC (custody)

Appendix – Compass Asset Management

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*16.09% of NAV is attributable to Alem Communications Holding LLP, the sale of the stake is in process

Source: Compass Asset Management Company

Appendix – Portfolio Structure

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Appendix – Portfolio Structure

Page 23: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

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Source: Bloomberg

YTD: +1.87% YTD: +1.48% YTD: -0.48%

YTD: +0.04% YTD: -3.13% YTD: +2.61%

Appendix – Commodity Prices

Page 24: Presentation to Investors May 2012 - Tau Capital Plc - to Investors May 2012 Richard Horlick, Director Tau Capital Plc Mathias Wikberg, Head of Public Equity Michael Adams, Head of

Important Notice The contents of this presentation has been approved and issued for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction to purchase or sell any investment. No information in this document should be construed as providing financial, investment or other professional advice. The information in this document is for the sole use of the intended recipients and may not be copied, published or otherwise distributed. Tau Capital plc (the “Fund”) is a mutual fund listed on the AIM exchange in London. The information below is for general guidance only and further information will be available in the Prospectus. The taxation implications of investing in the Fund will depend on individual financial circumstances and the investor’s country of residence. Application to invest in the Funds must only be made on the basis of the Prospectus and subscription documentation. United Kingdom: The Fund is not a recognised collective investment scheme for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”). The promotion of the Fund and the distribution of the Prospectus is accordingly restricted by law. The Prospectus may only be issued to persons who are authorised under FSMA or to persons who are of a kind to whom the Fund may be promoted by an authorised person by virtue of Section 238(5) of FSMA and Annex 5 to Chapter 3 of the Financial Services Authority’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook (“Annex 5”). When viewing this presentation you confirm that you are a person falling within the eligible categories of permitted investors as listed in Annex 5. Many of the protections provided by the United Kingdom’s regulatory regime will not apply to investors in the Fund, including access to the Financial Ombudsman Service and the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. United States: The shares of the Fund (the “Shares”) have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act 1933 of the United States (as amended) (the “1933 Act”), or the securities laws of any of the States of the United States. The Shares may not be offered, sold or delivered directly or indirectly in the United States or to or for the account or benefit of any "US Person" as defined in Regulation S under the 1933 Act except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the 1933 Act and any applicable State laws. The Funds have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940 (as amended) (the “1940 Act”) since Shares will only be sold to United States persons who are “qualified purchasers”, as defined in the 1940 Act. There has not been and will not be any public offering of the Shares in the United States. Investment Risks Investment in the Fund carries substantial risks and persons considering investing in the Fund should read the risk disclosures in the Prospectus. Investment results may vary substantially over time and there can be no assurance that the investment objectives of the Fund will be achieved. The Fund is intended for experienced investors who are able to understand and accept the risks involved. The Fund is not intended to provide a complete investment programme for any investor. The value of all investments and the income derived therefore can decrease as well as increase. This may be due, in part, to exchange rate fluctuations in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Past performance is no guide to or guarantee of future performance. The value of commodity and derivative investments such as options and futures can be extremely volatile. The Fund may invest in higher risk securities of distressed companies, illiquid securities and non - publicly traded securities. Fees

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