Presentation title · MedCo and further whiplash initiatives Technology Market premium rates(1)...

20/06/2016

1

Update from the Third Party Working Party

Simon Black (Aviva)

Robert Treen (Willis Towers Watson)

20 June 2016

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Disclaimer

This handout and presentation represents the personal views of the speaker who does

not accept any liability for reliance on it and make no warranty as to its content or

accuracy.

This handout supports the research effort of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Third

Party Working Party and is not written advice directed at the particular facts and

circumstances of any given situation and/or data.

The materials contained in this presentation pack and any oral representation of it by

the working party are explicitly outside the scope of the TAS.

2


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Third Party Working Party

• Seventh iteration of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Third Party

Working Party (TPWP), which investigates third party motor claims (injury

and property damage)

• Scope focussed on private car comprehensive (PCC) including

geographical analysis

• Data representing earned premium for accident year 2015 of £8.3 billion for

private car comprehensive

• This pack represents the first stage of this year’s research to be presented

at the GIRO conference in September 2016

3

20/06/2016

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Acknowledgements

Working Party:

Simon Black (Chair)

Nigel Carpenter

Kyveli Charsouli

Mark Douglas

Jacqui Draper

Leanne Emmanuel

Yan Liu

Lee Ramsden

Thomas Scales

Klaas Sijbrandij

Glen D’Souza

Robert Treen

4

Data contributors:

Acromas

Admiral

Advantage

Ageas

Allianz

Aviva

AXA

Chaucer

Covea

Direct Line Group

esure

Groupama

LV=

RSA

Tesco Underwriting

The Co-operative Insurance

Zurich


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Market statistics Notes on data • The collection of contributing insurers has changed materially over the years. Relative to last year’s study this year’s includes

additional data from some contributors (generally relating to more accounts) and, in some cases, less data from other

contributors.

• In addition, in each year it is common for a number of insurers to make relatively subtle changes to their definitions of claim

statistics. In the aggregate, these lead to distortions when comparing the market studies between different years.

• Not all contributors are able to supply data to support every claim statistic in each study. There are generally (but not always)

improvements in the availability of data from year to year, and as such, the results of the most recent study will be based upon

data from an increased proportion of the contributor companies (and not just new contributors). Again, this introduces a

material distortion into any analysis which attempts to compare the results across different studies.

• It is reasonably common for insurers to restate the claims statistics of prior accident years (and prior periods of development),

particularly in the case where portfolios (including movements on prior year liabilities) have been acquired or disposed of by

the contributor(s) in question. Other reasons for such changes can be changes in the availability of granular data pertaining to

(potentially large) segments of portfolios (such as in the case where data is provided by bordereaux rather than being

integrated in insurer administration systems) or in some cases changes in the mapping of data to classes.

• For this reason, we would recommend that if the user of the research wishes to understand how trends have evolved over

time, then they should focus on looking at trends by accident year within the latest study, rather than attempting to compare

the results across studies.

• Likewise we do not consider statistically valid any back engineering of individual contributors’ contributions.

5

20 June 2016 6

1. Scene Setting

2. Market Statistics: TPPD

3. Market Statistics: TPI

4. Market Statistics: Geography

5. Conclusions

20/06/2016

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FCA uncertainty: big data, add-ons; competition

Solvency II

Increased litigation & now US style class action

Fuel prices, the cost of motoring and more cars

CORs remain challenging

Low investment returns

PPOs and review of Ogden discount rate

CMC developments and ABSs

Increases to General Damages(4)

Brexit and ensuing political uncertainty

Chancellor’s autumn statement

MoJ and LASPO Act

MedCo and further whiplash initiatives

Technology

Post RSA ruling TPPD inflation offset by AD income

Market premium rates(1)

Scene Setting

Summary • Motor environment continues to evolve rapidly: with both tailwinds and headwinds from the insurer’s

perspective:

20 June 2016 7

Sources

1. Confused.com Insurance Price Index shows PCC rates increased by 13.7% in 12 months to end March 2016

2. EY Analysis of AM Best data

3. http://www.oft.gov.uk/shared_oft/market-studies/private-motor-insurance/Motor_Insurance.pdf

4. Judicial College Guideline increases on 1/9/15 of 3.4%

• PRA returns for 2015 show a net COR of 112% as against 111% in 2014 on a pure accident year basis (101% and 100% on a financial year basis) (2)

• Our study covers the cost of third party claims, which make up 70% of motor insurance claims costs – the OFT figures cite 50% for TPI, 20% for TPPD. (3)

• TPWP therefore focuses on the most material and analytically problematic areas of cost, in order to provide information to help actuaries, consumers, regulators and companies make informed decisions.


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Scene Setting

Motor Premium Rate Movements

20 June 2016 8

• The Confused.com Car Insurance

Price Index shows that PCC

premiums began to increase slowly

in the second half 2014.

• In 2015 premium rates increased

more strongly, particularly in the

second half of the year with

increases of 5% in Q3 and 7% in

Q4.

• In 2016 Q1 premium rates were

unchanged from the previous

quarter and 14% higher than a

year previously. -10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2008 Q

1

2008 Q

2

2008 Q

3

2008 Q

4

2009 Q

1

2009 Q

2

2009 Q

3

2009 Q

4

2010 Q

1

2010 Q

2

2010 Q

3

2010 Q

4

2011 Q

1

2011 Q

2

2011 Q

3

2011 Q

4

2012 Q

1

2012 Q

2

2012 Q

3

2012 Q

4

2013 Q

1

2013 Q

2

2013 Q

3

2013 Q

4

2014 Q

1

2014 Q

2

2014 Q

3

2014 Q

4

2015 Q

1

2015 Q

2

2015 Q

3

2015 Q

4

2016 Q

1

Qu

art

erl

y %

Ch

an

ge

Confused.com Car Insurance Price Index

Quarterly % Change Index

20 June 2016 9

1. Scene Setting




5. Conclusions

http://www.oft.gov.uk/shared_oft/market-studies/private-motor-insurance/Motor_Insurance.pdf








20/06/2016

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Market Statistics

Road Usage Data

• The average mileage driven has fallen by 10% over the period from 2004 to 2015.

• The overall number of vehicles registered has increased by 12% over the same time period.

• As a result, the total number of miles driven by cars has increased by 1% over the time period whilst the mileage driven by all vehicles has increased by 3%, largely driven by light vans.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/oil-and-petroleum-products-weekly-statistics/

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-transport/about/statistics

• Average mileage does not appear to be closely aligned with change in petrol prices

PeriodCar

Park

Average

Mileage

%

Change2004 27,028 9,0652005 27,520 8,866 -2.2%2006 27,609 8,943 0.9%2007 28,000 8,832 -1.2%2008 28,161 8,714 -1.3%2009 28,246 8,667 -0.5%2010 28,421 8,437 -2.6%

2011 28,467 8,455 0.2%2012 28,722 8,366 -1.1%2013 29,141 8,236 -1.6%2014 29,611 8,274 0.5%2015 30,250 8,188 -1.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UK Fuel Prices vs Average Car Mileage Rates of Change

Annual Percentage Change in Fuel Prices Annual Percentage Change in Average Mileage

20 June 2016 10


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Market Statistics

Road Congestion – reduction in average speed

11 20 June 2016 Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/congestion-on-local-a-roads-england-october-to-december-2015

• Congestion (measured as the inverse of average speed during morning hours) has increased year on year since 2011.

• Average increase in congestion was 1.9% p.a. from 2011 to 2015.

• Congestion is positively correlated with the car park size and total number of miles driven per year.

• However, there seems to be no clear relationship between congestion and the number of accidents from Stats 19.

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average speed in miles per hour


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Market statistics Claim frequency (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 12

TPPD frequency fell by

30% from 2007 to

2013.

Possible reasons:

• Improved car safety

• Improved road

safety

• Reduction in

mileage

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Annual Percentage Change

12-13: -4.6% 11-12: -6.2% 10-11: -14.6% 09-10: -4.6% 08-09: -0.9% 07-08: -4.1%

Reported Claim Frequency (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Fre

qu

en

cy (

exc

nil

s)

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/oil-and-petroleum-products-weekly-statistics















https://www.claimsregulation.gov.uk/






20/06/2016

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Market statistics Claim frequency (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 13

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


12-13: -4.6% 11-12: -6.2% 10-11: -14.6% 09-10: -4.6% 08-09: -0.9% 07-08: -4.1%

Reported Claim Frequency (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Fre

qu

en

cy (

exc

nil

s)

2014

2015

14-15: 0.8% 13-14: 1.8%

In 2014 reductions ceased

with an increase of 1.8%.

2015 has seen a small

further increase of 0.8%

The increase in 2015 is not

consistent with provisional

road traffic accident

statistics which show a

decrease in the year to

2015 Q3 of 3% despite

traffic volumes increasing

2%.

Possible change in

demographics towards

riskier drivers / areas

coupled with increased

congestion?


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Market statistics Incurred average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 14

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 2.3% 13-14: 4.2% 12-13: 1.1% 11-12: 7.8% 10-11: 6.9% 09-10: 4.1%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 2.3% 13-14: 4.2% 12-13: 1.1% 11-12: 7.8% 10-11: 6.9% 09-10: 4.1% 08-09: 2.7% 07-08: 6.6%


Inc

urr

ed

Av

era

ge

Co

st

-p

er

cla

im (

exc

nil

s)

Incurred severity inflation

averaged 5.6% from 2007

to 2012 but only 2.5%

from 2012 to 2015.

Recent levels of TPPD

inflation is in part driven

by companies charging at

fault insurers the retail

rate for repairs rather than

the actual (lower) cost

charged by their repair

networks following the

resolution of the Coles vs

Hetherington case.


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Market statistics Settled average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 15

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 6.3% 13-14: 4.8% 12-13: 1.3% 11-12: 8.7% 10-11: 8.5% 09-10: 4.7%

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 6.3% 13-14: 4.8% 12-13: 1.3% 11-12: 8.7% 10-11: 8.5% 09-10: 4.7% 08-09: 2.3% 07-08: 5.4%


Av

era

ge

Co

st

of

Se

ttle

d C

laim

s -

pe

r c

laim

(e

xc

nil

s)

Settled inflation

consistent with incurred

inflation from 2007 but

higher from 2012 to 2015

at 4.1%.

Settled inflation in 2015 is

significantly higher than

incurred at 6.3%.

Inflation in the second

half of the 2015 was

lower than the first half

on an incurred basis but

higher on a settled basis.

20/06/2016

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Market statistics Settlement Rate (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 16

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 2.8% 13-14: 0.3% 12-13: 0.8% 11-12: 0.1% 10-11: 0% 09-10: -0.1%

Claim Settlement Rate (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 2.8% 13-14: 0.3% 12-13: 0.8% 11-12: 0.1% 10-11: 0% 09-10: -0.1% 08-09: -0.1% 07-08: -0.1%


Cla

im S

ett

lem

en

t R

ate

(e

xc

nil

s)

Following a market-wide

slow down in settlement

rate in 2012 there has

been some increase in

settlement rate in the

last two years.

Adjusting the observed

settled average cost

inflation in 2015 for

changes in settlement

rate results in an

inflation of 6.0% (as

opposed to 6.3%).

20 June 2016 17

1. Scene Setting




5. Conclusions


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MoJ Portal Notifications and GD payments

20 June 2016 18

• The number of claims reported through the portal has recovered to pre-LASPO levels, having fallen by over 10% after the introduction of LASPO.

• General Damage payments have stabilised with a rolling 12 month year on year inflation of 0.6% to March 2016. This followed a marked rise from 2012 to 2014 (c 23%), in line with the expected increases from the Judicial College Guidelines for the Assessment of General Damages and the 10% uplift in general damages post-LASPO upheld by the Court of Appeal - see table below.

• The 13th edition of the Judicial College Guidelines was published on 17th September 2015 with an average uplift of 4.7%.

JSB

Edition

Month

Published

Average

Uplift

8th Sep-06 5.2%

9th Sep-08 9.6%

10th Sep-10 2.8%

11th Sep-12 9.0%

Laspo Apr-13 10.0%

12th Sep-13 2.3%

13th Sep-15 4.7%

20/06/2016

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MoJ Portal Stage 1 Exit

20 June 2016 19

Stage 1 exit counts have

reduced slightly by 0.9% from

2014 to 2015, which masked a

much bigger year on year

reduction in the second half of

2015 (about 6%).

Notes • These figures include;

• Claim Notification Forms that have not had a response at the end of Stage 1 – Liability

• Claim Notification Forms where liability has not been accepted, and

• Claim Notification Forms where liability has been accepted with contributory negligence other than a seatbelt.

• The figures do not include Claim Notification Forms that were taken out of the process using the

Exit function during Stage 1.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Jan2011

Apr Jul Oct Jan2012

Apr Jul Oct Jan2013

Apr Jul Oct Jan2014

Apr Jul Oct Jan2015

Apr Jul Oct Jan2016

Apr

Ave

rage

Ge

ne

ral D

amag

es

(£)

No

CN

Fs L

eav

ing

at S

tage

1

No CNFs Leaving the Portal at Stage 1

LASP

O in

tro

du

ctio

n

Po

rtal

ext

en

sio

n

LASP

O O

rigi

nal

sta

rt d

ate


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Market statistics Ratio of TPI to TPPD claim numbers (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 20

Huge increase in

proportion of claims with

injury element from under

25% in 2007 to over 40%

in 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Rep

ort

ed

Cla

im N

um

bers

(exc n

ils)

-T

PI/T

PP

D R

ati

o

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11-12: 8.4% 10-11: 17.7% 09-10: 10.7% 08-09: 9.5% 07-08: 9%

Reported Claim Numbers (exc nils) - TPI/TPPD RatioPrivate Car Comp - TPI Capped



Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Ratio of TPI to TPPD claim numbers (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 21

LASPO caused

reduction of 6.6% in

2013 and there have

been further small

reductions in 2014 and

2015.

Number of authorized

CMCs has fallen by 4%

in the year to 1 June

2016 to 942, down from

a peak of over 2,500 in

2011.

The numbers of

registered ABSs has

continued to increase to

over 500.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Nu

mb

ers

(e

xc

nil

s)

-T

PI/

TP

PD

Ra

tio

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11-12: 8.4% 10-11: 17.7% 09-10: 10.7% 08-09: 9.5% 07-08: 9%

Reported Claim Numbers (exc nils) - TPI/TPPD RatioPrivate Car Comp - TPI Capped


2013

2014

2015

14-15: -1.5% 13-14: -0.5% 12-13: -6.6%

20/06/2016

8


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Frequency (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 22

Despite falls in

frequency of

accidents the

number of injury

claims increased

from 2007 to 2012.

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012


11-12: 1.6% 10-11: 0.5% 09-10: 5.6% 08-09: 8.5% 07-08: 4.6%

Reported Claim Frequency (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Fre

qu

en

cy (

exc

nil

s)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72


20 June 2016 23

In 2013 LASPO

resulted in a

reduction in

frequency of 11%.

Frequency in 2014

and 2015 broadly

unchanged from

2013.

Current frequency

is between the

2009 and 2010

level. 0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012


11-12: 1.6% 10-11: 0.5% 09-10: 5.6% 08-09: 8.5% 07-08: 4.6%

Reported Claim Frequency (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Fre

qu

en

cy (

exc

nil

s)

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -0.7% 13-14: 1.3% 12-13: -10.9%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Settled at nil proportion

20 June 2016 24

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -1.7% 13-14: 0.3% 12-13: 17.3% 11-12: 5.3% 10-11: -4.4% 09-10: -

Settled at Nil %Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -1.7% 13-14: 0.3% 12-13: 17.3% 11-12: 5.3% 10-11: -4.4% 09-10: -2.6% 08-09: 2.7% 07-08: -0.9%


Se

ttle

d a

t N

il %

Appears to be a change

in settled at nil rates in

2013.

Potentially could be

resulting from LASPO

or changes to claims

systems and process.

Portal data does not

suggest an increase in

claims exiting at stage

1 post LASPO.

20/06/2016

9


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Claimants per claim (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 25

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Rep

ort

ed

Cla

iman

ts p

er

Cla

im (

exc n

ils)

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


14-15: -0.1% 13-14: -2.3% 12-13: -1.8% 11-12: 0.5%

Reported Claimants per Claim (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -0.1% 13-14: -2.3% 12-13: -1.8% 11-12: 0.5%

Reported Claimants per Claim (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


Claimants per claim

have reduced in 2013

by 1.8% and in 2014 by

2.3%.

Claimants per claim in

2015 is in line with

2014.


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Incurred Average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 26

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -3.9% 13-14: -1.1% 12-13: -6.9% 11-12: 0% 10-11: 1% 09-10: -2.2%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -3.9% 13-14: -1.1% 12-13: -6.9% 11-12: 0% 10-11: 1% 09-10: -2.2% 08-09: 9.5% 07-08: 5.9%


Inc

urr

ed

Av

era

ge

Co

st

-p

er

cla

im (

exc

nil

s)

Incurred average cost

reduced by 6.9% in 2013

following the introduction of

LASPO.

The severity fell again in

2014 mainly as a result of a

reduction in claimants per

claim.

£350 (or 4%) per claim

reduction in 2015 – possibly

as a result of lower fees for

medical reports.

TPWP will present results

at GIRO splitting this into

claims bands which may

help explain this reduction.


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Incurred Average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 27

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Inc

urr

ed

Ave

rag

e C

os

t -

pe

r c

laim

(e

xc

nil

s)

(Ha

lf Y

ea

r)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -4.5% 13-14: -2.5% 12-13: -5.2% 11-12: -0.9% 10-11: -0.9% 09-10:

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -4.5% 13-14: -2.5% 12-13: -5.2% 11-12: -0.9% 10-11: -0.9% 09-10: 0.9%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -3.2% 13-14: 0.2% 12-13: -8.5% 11-12: 0.9% 10-11: 2.8% 09-10: -4.9%

While 2013 reduction in

severity was 6.9% as a

whole, the reduction in

the second half of 2013

was 8.5% on an

incurred basis.

Further reductions in

severity of 3.9% for

2015 claims.

20/06/2016

10


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Settled Average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 28

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Ave

rag

e C

os

t o

f S

ett

led

Cla

ims

-p

er

cla

im (

ex

c n

ils

) (H

alf

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -3.1% 13-14: -7.8% 12-13: -6.7% 11-12: 0.1% 10-11: 0.5% 09-10:

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -3.1% 13-14: -7.8% 12-13: -6.7% 11-12: 0.1% 10-11: 0.5% 09-10: 2.1%

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -1.3% 13-14: -0.2% 12-13: -14.5% 11-12: 0.8% 10-11: 3.8% 09-10: -2.5%

Settled severity also

showing clear reduction

in average cost in 2013

resulting from LASPO

albeit at a higher level

(14.5% for H2) than on

an incurred basis.

Reductions in severity

also seen in 2014 and

2015 for settled claims.


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Paid to incurred ratio

20 June 2016 29

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Pa

id t

o I

nc

urr

ed

Rati

o (

Half

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -8% 13-14: -9.1% 12-13: -3.2% 11-12: -0.2% 10-11: -0.2% 09-10:

Paid to Incurred Ratio (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -8% 13-14: -9.1% 12-13: -3.2% 11-12: -0.2% 10-11: -0.2% 09-10: 0.7%

Paid to Incurred Ratio (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -15.5% 13-14: -5% 12-13: -8.8% 11-12: -1.2% 10-11: -0.2% 09-10: 0.7%

Material reduction in paid

to incurred ratio following

the introduction of LASPO

in the second half of 2013

which has persisted even

as the accident period has

developed.

Further substantial

reductions also seen in

2015.

Reductions are more

significant than changes in

settlement rate (around 4%

in 2014 and 2015).

What does this imply for

reserves and hence

average costs ?


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Settlement Rate (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 30

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Cla

im S

ett

lem

en

t R

ate

(e

xc

nil

s)

(Ha

lf Y

ea

r)

Development month

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -4% 13-14: -3.8% 12-13: 0.1% 11-12: 0.6% 10-11: 0.9% 09-10:

Claim Settlement Rate (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -4% 13-14: -3.8% 12-13: 0.1% 11-12: 0.6%

Claim Settlement Rate (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -3.9% 13-14: -4.3% 12-13: -1.5% 11-12: -0.3%

Settlement rates have

reduced post LASPO

and have continued to

reduce in 2014 and

2015.

20/06/2016

11

20 June 2016 31

1. Scene Setting




5. Conclusions


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI to TPPD Ratio (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 32

North-west

North-east

Midlands

South-east

East

West

Wales

Scotland

Liverpool

Birmingham

Leeds

London NWSwansea

EdinburghExeter

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

TP

I/T

PP

D R

ati

o

TPPD Frequency

2015 TPI/TPPD Ratio exc nils

The North West remains

the region with the

highest TPI to TPPD

ratio with Liverpool the

town with the highest

rate.

Scotland and the West of

England have the lowest

ratios.


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics

Change in TPI to TPPD Ratio (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 33

North-west

North-east

Midlands

South-east

East

West

Wales

Scotland

Liverpool

LutonWorcester

Norwich

Edinburgh

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

2014 TPI to TPD Ratio

Change in TPI/TPPD Ratio exc nils - 2014 to 2015

It does appear that

areas with higher TPI

to TPPD ratios in 2014

have seen larger

reductions in 2015.

20/06/2016

12


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics By Region

20 June 2016 34

Region TPPD

Frequency

exc nils

TPI

Frequency

exc nils

TPI to

TPPD exc

nils

North-west 3.2% 1.3% 42.0%

North-east 3.1% 1.1% 35.6%

South-east 3.9% 1.1% 29.1%

Midlands 3.4% 1.2% 34.4%

Wales 2.8% 1.0% 34.5%

East 3.0% 0.8% 27.0%

West 2.9% 0.7% 24.9%

Scotland 3.0% 0.4% 14.7%

2015 accident year

Region TPPD

Frequency

exc nils

TPI

Frequency

exc nils

TPI to

TPPD exc

nils

North-west 16.3% -2.4% -16.1%

North-east 13.7% -4.1% -15.6%

South-east 12.4% -3.6% -14.3%

Midlands 12.0% -3.4% -13.7%

Wales 10.0% -6.5% -15.1%

East 11.3% -5.3% -14.9%

West 9.4% -7.5% -15.5%

Scotland 15.1% -4.5% -17.0%

Change from 2014 accident year

Note that 2014 accident year numbers are 24 months developed and 2015 accident year figures are 12

months developed.

20 June 2016 35

1. Scene Setting




5. Conclusions


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Conclusions

20 June 2016 36

• TPPD

– Accident rates, which had been a source of positive news for insurers, increased in 2014

by 1.8% and again in 2015 by 0.8%.

– Severity inflation remains significantly above price inflation in 2015 at between 2% and

6.5%.

• TPI Capped

– The reductions in frequency post LASPO have persisted with frequency unchanged in

2014 and 2015.

– There have been significant reductions in severity of around £350 or 4% in 2015.

– It appears that settlement rates and overall payment speed have fallen post LASPO.

• Geography

– No significant change to the geographic claims experience although there is some

evidence that the towns with the highest TPI to TPPD ratios are seeing the largest

reductions.

20/06/2016

13

20 June 2016 37

Appendix


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Claim frequency (including nils)

20 June 2016 38

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


14-15: 0.3% 13-14: 0.9% 12-13: -2% 11-12: -2.3% 10-11: -13.2% 09-10: -4.7% 08-09: -1.3% 07-08: -4.6%

Reported Claim Frequency (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Fre

qu

en

cy (

inc

nil

s)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Settled at Nil %

20 June 2016 39

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -1.5% 13-14: -3.3% 12-13: 4.3% 11-12: 9.2% 10-11: 4.6% 09-10: 0.8%

Settled at Nil %Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: -1.5% 13-14: -3.3% 12-13: 4.3% 11-12: 9.2% 10-11: 4.6% 09-10: 0.8% 08-09: -1.2% 07-08: -2.7%


Se

ttle

d a

t N

il %

20/06/2016

14


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72


20 June 2016 40

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Inc

urr

ed

Ave

rag

e C

os

t -

pe

r c

laim

(e

xc

nil

s)

(Half

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: 3.2% 13-14: 4.1% 12-13: 1% 11-12: 9.8% 10-11: 4.9% 09-10: 5.7%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - PD

H1 : 14-15: 3.2% 13-14: 4.1% 12-13: 1% 11-12: 9.8% 10-11: 4.9% 09-10: 5.7%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - PD


H2 : 14-15: 1.3% 13-14: 4.2% 12-13: 1.2% 11-12: 5.9% 10-11: 9% 09-10: 2.8%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72


20 June 2016 41

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 3.9% 13-14: 5% 12-13: -1.2% 11-12: 4.6% 10-11: 4.8% 09-10: 3.4%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 3.9% 13-14: 5% 12-13: -1.2% 11-12: 4.6% 10-11: 4.8% 09-10: 3.4% 08-09: 4.7% 07-08: 8.5%


Inc

urr

ed

Av

era

ge

Co

st

-p

er

cla

im (

inc

nil

s)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Settled average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 42

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Ave

rag

e C

os

t o

f S

ett

led

Cla

ims

-p

er

cla

im (

ex

c n

ils

) (H

alf

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: 5.8% 13-14: 4.4% 12-13: 0.8% 11-12: 11.4% 10-11: 5.9% 09-10:

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - PD

H1 : 14-15: 5.8% 13-14: 4.4% 12-13: 0.8% 11-12: 11.4% 10-11: 5.9% 09-10: 5.9%

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - PD


H2 : 14-15: 7.5% 13-14: 5.1% 12-13: 1.9% 11-12: 6.1% 10-11: 11.1% 09-10: 3.6%

20/06/2016

15


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Settled average Cost (including nils)

20 June 2016 43

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 6.7% 13-14: 5.3% 12-13: -0.9% 11-12: 4.9% 10-11: 5.3% 09-10: 2.6%

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 6.7% 13-14: 5.3% 12-13: -0.9% 11-12: 4.9% 10-11: 5.3% 09-10: 2.6% 08-09: 4.4% 07-08: 9%


Av

era

ge

Co

st

of

Se

ttle

d C

laim

s -

pe

r c

laim

(in

c n

ils)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Settlement Rate (including nils)

20 June 2016 44

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 2.1% 13-14: 0.1% 12-13: 0.7% 11-12: 0.1% 10-11: 0% 09-10: -0.1%

Claim Settlement Rate (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 2.1% 13-14: 0.1% 12-13: 0.7% 11-12: 0.1% 10-11: 0% 09-10: -0.1% 08-09: -0.1% 07-08: 0%


Cla

im S

ett

lem

en

t R

ate

(in

c n

ils

)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Paid to Incurred Ratio

20 June 2016 45

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: 0.4% 13-14: -0.3% 12-13: 0.1% 11-12: -0.1% 10-11: 0% 09-10: -0.1%

Paid to Incurred RatioPrivate Car Comp - TPPD

14-15: 0.4% 13-14: -0.3% 12-13: 0.1% 11-12: -0.1% 10-11: 0% 09-10: -0.1% 08-09: 0% 07-08: 0%


Pa

id t

o I

nc

urr

ed

Ra

tio

20/06/2016

16


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Ratio of TPI to TPPD claim numbers (including nils)

20 June 2016 46

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Rep

ort

ed

Cla

im N

um

bers

(in

c n

ils)

-T

PI/T

PP

D R

ati

o

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -0.2% 13-14: 0.6% 12-13: -4.8% 11-12: 5.9% 10-11: 13.7% 09-10: 9.3% 08-09: 12.1% 07-08: 11.3%

Reported Claim Numbers (inc nils) - TPI/TPPD RatioPrivate Car Comp - TPI Capped



Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72


20 June 2016 47

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Rep

ort

ed

Cla

im F

req

ue

nc

y (

ex

c n

ils

) (H

alf

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2


H1 : 14-15: 0.5% 13-14: 0.5% 12-13: -8% 11-12: 0.2% 10-11: 4.8% 09-10: 4.1%

Reported Claim Frequency (exc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H2 : 14-15: -2% 13-14: 2% 12-13: -13.5% 11-12: 3% 10-11: -3.3% 09-10: 6.9%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Frequency (including nils)

20 June 2016 48

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


14-15: -0.7% 13-14: 1.6% 12-13: -6.8% 11-12: 3.3% 10-11: -0.9% 09-10: 3.7% 08-09: 9.7% 07-08: 5.9%

Reported Claim Frequency (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

Re

po

rte

d C

laim

Fre

qu

en

cy (

inc

nil

s)

20/06/2016

17


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Frequency (including nils)

20 June 2016 49

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Rep

ort

ed

Cla

im F

req

ue

nc

y (

inc

nil

s)

(Half

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2


H1 : 14-15: 0.6% 13-14: 1.1% 12-13: -3.9% 11-12: 1.6% 10-11: 2.3% 09-10: 3.3%

Reported Claim Frequency (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H2 : 14-15: -2.1% 13-14: 2% 12-13: -9.5% 11-12: 4.9% 10-11: -3.8% 09-10: 4.2%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Settled at nil proportion

20 June 2016 50

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Se

ttle

d a

t N

il %

(H

alf

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -1% 13-14: 0.8% 12-13: 16.3% 11-12: 5.7% 10-11: -8.1% 09-10:

Settled at Nil % (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -1% 13-14: 0.8% 12-13: 16.3% 11-12: 5.7% 10-11: -8.1% 09-10: 1.4%

Settled at Nil % (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -4.6% 13-14: -0.1% 12-13: 18.3% 11-12: 4.9% 10-11: -0.9% 09-10: -6%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Incurred Average Cost(including nils)

20 June 2016 51

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -4% 13-14: -1.4% 12-13: -10.1% 11-12: -1.1% 10-11: 1.8% 09-10: -2.4%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -4% 13-14: -1.4% 12-13: -10.1% 11-12: -1.1% 10-11: 1.8% 09-10: -2.4% 08-09: 8.8% 07-08: 6.8%


Inc

urr

ed

Av

era

ge

Co

st

-p

er

cla

im (

inc

nil

s)

20/06/2016

18


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Incurred Average Cost (including nils)

20 June 2016 52

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Inc

urr

ed

Ave

rag

e C

os

t -

pe

r c

laim

(in

c n

ils

) (H

alf

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -4.8% 13-14: -2.7% 12-13: -8.2% 11-12: -2.2% 10-11: 0.5% 09-10: -

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -4.8% 13-14: -2.7% 12-13: -8.2% 11-12: -2.2% 10-11: 0.5% 09-10: -0.2%

Incurred Average Cost - per claim (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -2.9% 13-14: -0.2% 12-13: -11.7% 11-12: -0.1% 10-11: 2.9% 09-10: -4.3%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Settled Average Cost (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 53

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -2.8% 13-14: -4.9% 12-13: -10.3% 11-12: 0.5% 10-11: 2.3% 09-10: -

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -2.8% 13-14: -4.9% 12-13: -10.3% 11-12: 0.5% 10-11: 2.3% 09-10: -0.4% 08-09: 8.8% 07-08: 5.5%


Av

era

ge

Co

st

of

Se

ttle

d C

laim

s -

pe

r c

laim

(e

xc

nil

s)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Settled Average Cost (including nils)

20 June 2016 54

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -3.6% 13-14: -5.7% 12-13: -13.7% 11-12: -0.9% 10-11: 3.4% 09-10: -

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -3.6% 13-14: -5.7% 12-13: -13.7% 11-12: -0.9% 10-11: 3.4% 09-10: -0.3% 08-09: 8.2% 07-08: 6.3%


Av

era

ge

Co

st

of

Se

ttle

d C

laim

s -

pe

r c

laim

(in

c n

ils)

20/06/2016

19


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Capped Settled Average Cost (including nils)

20 June 2016 55

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Ave

rag

e C

os

t o

f S

ett

led

Cla

ims

-p

er

cla

im (

inc

nil

s)

(Half

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -4.4% 13-14: -8.3% 12-13: -10% 11-12: -1.4% 10-11: 2.7% 09-10:

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -4.4% 13-14: -8.3% 12-13: -10% 11-12: -1.4% 10-11: 2.7% 09-10: 1%

Average Cost of Settled Claims - per claim (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -0.6% 13-14: -1.6% 12-13: -18% 11-12: -0.3% 10-11: 4.1% 09-10: -1.4%


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Settlement Rate (including nils)

20 June 2016 56

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -2.4% 13-14: -3% 12-13: 0.1% 11-12: 0.2% 10-11: 0.7% 09-10: 0.5%

Claim Settlement Rate (inc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -2.4% 13-14: -3% 12-13: 0.1% 11-12: 0.2% 10-11: 0.7% 09-10: 0.5% 08-09: -0.4% 07-08: -1%


Cla

im S

ett

lem

en

t R

ate

(in

c n

ils

)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Settlement Rate (including nils)

20 June 2016 57

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Cla

im S

ett

lem

en

t R

ate

(in

c n

ils

) (H

alf

Ye

ar)

Development month

2009 H1

2009 H2

2010 H1

2010 H2

2011 H1

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

H1 : 14-15: -2.4% 13-14: -2.8% 12-13: 0.6% 11-12: 0.5% 10-11: 0.6% 09-10:

Claim Settlement Rate (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

H1 : 14-15: -2.4% 13-14: -2.8% 12-13: 0.6% 11-12: 0.5% 10-11: 0.6% 09-10: 0.4%

Claim Settlement Rate (inc nils) (Half Year)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped


H2 : 14-15: -4.4% 13-14: -3% 12-13: -0.5% 11-12: -0.1% 10-11: 0.8% 09-10: 0.7%

20/06/2016

20


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI Settlement Rate (excluding nils)

20 June 2016 58

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -3.5% 13-14: -4.2% 12-13: -0.6% 11-12: 0.2% 10-11: 1% 09-10: 0.8%

Claim Settlement Rate (exc nils)Private Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -3.5% 13-14: -4.2% 12-13: -0.6% 11-12: 0.2% 10-11: 1% 09-10: 0.8% 08-09: -0.7% 07-08: -1.4%


Cla

im S

ett

lem

en

t R

ate

(e

xc

nil

s)


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Paid to incurred ratio

20 June 2016 59

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

Development month

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14-15: -9.5% 13-14: -7.6% 12-13: -5.7% 11-12: -0.8% 10-11: -0.2% 09-10:

Paid to Incurred RatioPrivate Car Comp - TPI Capped

14-15: -9.5% 13-14: -7.6% 12-13: -5.7% 11-12: -0.8% 10-11: -0.2% 09-10: 0.7% 08-09: -0.6% 07-08: 0%


Pa

id t

o I

nc

urr

ed

Ra

tio


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics TPI to TPPD Ratio (including nils)

20 June 2016 60

North-west

North-east

Midlands

South-east

East

West

Wales

Scotland

Liverpool

Birmingham

Leeds

London NWSwansea

EdinburghExeter

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

TP

I/T

PD

Rati

o

TPD Frequency

2015 TPI/TPD Ratio inc Nils

20/06/2016

21


Dark blue

R17 G52 B88

Gold

R217 G171 B22

Mid blue

R64 G150 B184



Light grey

R63 G69 B72

Pea green

R121 G163 B42

Forest green

R0 G132 B82

Bottle green

R17 G179 B162

Cyan

R0 G156 B200

Light blue

R124 G179 B225

Violet

R128 G118 B207

Purple

R143 G70 B147

Fuscia

R233 G69 B140

Red

R200 G30 B69

Orange

R238 G116 29

Dark grey

R63 G69 B72

Market statistics Change in TPI to TPPD Ratio(including nils)

20 June 2016 61

North-west

North-east

Midlands

South-east

East

West

Wales

Scotland

Liverpool

Luton

Worcester

Norwich

Edinburgh

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2014 TPI to TPD Ratio

Change in TPI/TPD Ratio inc nils - 2014 to 2015

Presentation title · MedCo and further whiplash initiatives Technology Market premium rates(1)...

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