1. 1. NUNN FOR SENATE Critiquing a Political Campaign
2. 2. Pre-Election SWOTAnalysis Italicized text = special attention Strengths Nunn has an positive image. Is not a scary liberal like Reid or Pelosi. Has a strong campaign staff, which includes former operatives of Sen. Sam Nunn. Made an early investment into microtargeting, which will help with voter mobilization efforts. Weaknesses Nunn is not an inspiring speaker. Nunn can seem like an uptight elitist. May have too many themes for the campaign/spreading messages too thin. Opportunities Grew up around politics. Nunn is unlikely to put her foot in her mouth. Gives opportunity to speak publicly more often. Has an impressive list of supporters in political and business community that she can use as validators and leverage for fundraising and GOTV. Is mother of young children. Can use to connect with middle-aged suburban women. Has career that gives credibility to talk about bipartisanship, etc. Father remains popular with older, white Democrats. Changing demographics help with effort to expand electorate. Threats Campaign plan was leaked to press in July. It included a list of potential attacks against Nunn, including service awards to inmates/terrorists, Nunn too liberal, Nunn is not a real Georgian, and Nunn is a rubber stamp for Democrats. Nunn lacks a southern accent, lending credence to the notion that she is an elitist and not a real Georgian. Nationally, Democrats are on the defensive this campaign season.
3. 3. Pre-ElectionDemographicGoals
4. 4. Pre-Election MessageBox Nunn on Nunn Issue Positions Raise minimum wage Equal Pay for Equal Work Invest in infrastructure, R&D, workforce development Invest in K-12 Expand Pre-K Make college affordable Performance Partnered with Orin Hatch and Ted Kennedy to pass the bipartisan Serve America Act Has been able to work with Republicans and Democrats throughout her career Qualifications/Bio Founder of Hands On Atlanta Was President and CEO of Points of Light, President George H.W. Bushs legacy organization Right person for problems? Believes innovative thinking can help solve issues Will work to find common ground Will bring decency back to Washington Is a bridge builder, not a bridge burner Nunn on Perdue Issue Positions N/A Performance Is proud of outsourcing American jobs Got rich while screwing over employees Was fined for discriminating against female managers while CEO of Dollar General Qualifications/Bio N/A Right person for problems? Embraces attitude of gridlock/Is what is wrong in politics Is an extremist who would rather play politics than help Georgians Green text = clear contrast between the candidates Red text = clear similarity in the candidates
5. 5. Pre-ElectionMessageStatement I have spent my career helping others. I have found that when people work together and are innovative, their communities are successful. David Perdue, however, has spent his career putting himself before his employees. Now he wants to go to Washington to play politics. But Georgians have made it clear; theyre tired of politics as usual. I believe that we can end the gridlock, work together, and leave our children a better Georgia.
6. 6. GoodCommunicationKannapolisTVSpot
7. 7. GoodCommunicationProudTVSpot
8. 8. BadCommunicationProblemSolvingTVSpot
9. 9. UglyCommunicationFergusonGOTVMailPiece
10. 10. UglyCommunicationFergusonGOTVMailPiece
11. 11. ElectionResults 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Millions Black Vote White Vote Actual demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent
12. 12. ElectionResultsDidYoungVotersNotTurnOut? Young Voter (18-29) Turnout as Percentage of Total Electorate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Early AJC Poll Actual Nunn Perdue What Happened? Many possibilities, here are a couple: Nunn was able to turn young liberal voters out but Perdue was able to close the gap by turning out young conservative voters The polls were off a bit (we are cutting margins close for statistic significance) Most likely a mix of sorts Actual demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent
13. 13. ElectionResultsAbandonmentbyWhiteVoters Nunn White Vote 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Nunn Goal Nunn "Base" Nunn Actual Millions What Happened? Nunn likely handicapped by Obama approval ratings Nunn was not even able to earn 30 percent of white vote among women Earned 27 percent of vote from white women according to exit poll. That amounts to 42 point loss to Perdue. Actual demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent
14. 14. If we could go back in time.
15. 15. RevisedSWOT Analysis Strengths Nunn has an positive image. Is not a scary liberal like Reid or Pelosi. Has a strong campaign staff, which includes former operatives of Sen. Sam Nunn. Nunn is a great fundraiser (thanks to Sen. Nunn). Weaknesses Nunn can seem like an uptight elitist. May have too many themes for the campaign/spreading messages too thin. Nunn doesnt have the powerful look. Nunn is too smart for her own good. Uses too flowery of language and sounds wonkish at times. Opportunities Grew up around politics. Nunn is unlikely to put her foot in her mouth. Gives opportunity to speak publicly more often. Has an impressive list of supporters in political and business community that she can use as validators and leverage for fundraising and GOTV. Is mother of young children. Can use to connect with middle-aged suburban women. Threats Campaign plan was leaked to press in July. It included a list of potential attacks against Nunn, including service awards to inmates/terrorists, Nunn too liberal, Nunn is not a real Georgian, and Nunn is a rubber stamp for Democrats. Fundamentals of the race are AWFUL Nunn is being held back by Obamas low approval ratings and the electorate looks more like 2010s than 2012s. Italicized text = added in revision Bolded text = key moving forward
16. 16. RevisedDemographicGoals Persuade 60,000 White Women 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Thousands Supporting Nunn Supporting Perdue Mobilize 85,000 Liberal Young Voters (18-29) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Thousands Turnout Actual demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent Actual demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent
17. 17. ResultswithRevisedDemographicGoals* 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Actual Rev. Goals Millions Perdue Nunn 50 Percent + 1 * Assumes the Libertarian candidate earns the same number of votes as she did in the actual election (roughly 50,000)
18. 18. Revised MessageBox Nunn on Nunn Issue Positions Raise minimum wage Equal Pay for Equal Work Invest in infrastructure, R&D, workforce development Invest in K-12 Expand Pre-K Make college affordable Performance Has been able to work with Republicans and Democrats throughout her career Qualifications/Bio Was President and CEO of Points of Light, President George H.W. Bushs legacy organization Right person for problems? Will work with either party to help Georgians Is a bridge builder, not a bridge burner Is trustworthy Reid is just as guilty of creating toxic system as McConnell. Would vote for a different leader. Nunn on Perdue Issue Positions Is anti-middle-class/anti-family. Doesnt support raising the minimum wage, Pre-K Expansion, Equal Pay legislation, or ways to make college affordable Performance Is proud of outsourcing American jobs Got rich while screwing over employees Qualifications/Bio N/A Right person for problems? Embraces attitude of gridlock/Is what is wrong in politics You cant trust him Green text = clear contrast between the candidates Red text = clear similarity in the candidates Italicized text = added in revision
19. 19. MessageStatementComparison Pre-Election Message Statement I have spent my career helping others. I have found that when people work together and are innovative, their communities are successful. David Perdue, however, has spent his career putting himself before his employees. Now he wants to go to Washington to play politics. But Georgians have made it clear; theyre tired of politics as usual. I believe that we can end the gridlock, work together, and leave our children a better Georgia. Revised Message Statement As a mother of two young children, I know that we need leaders in Washington who will put families before politics. David Perdue says that he will work for Georgians in the Senate, but throughout his career, he has shown that he only worries about himself and his wallet. As your Senator, I will fight for our middle-class and find common ground on issues we can all agree on, like investing in our roads and bridges, ensuring Equal Pay for Equal Work, and making sure everyone has the opportunity to attend college. Lets come together, put families first and leave our children a better Georgia.
20. 20. RevisedEarnedMediaEvent Event Description As part of a larger tour of Georgia colleges and universities, Nunn will host a series of events at Georgia State University in Atlanta. Will include meetings with student leaders, student media editorial boards, and visits to a nearby restaurants or cafs that are popular with students. Will target student, regional and state news outlets. Will also encourage students to post or tweet photos of themselves with Nunn. Press Release Excerpts Lead: The upcoming election will decide the future of higher education in Georgia, U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn told a group of Georgia State students Monday. Nunn spent the day visiting Georgia States campus and meeting with students. Quote from Nunn: The cost of college is soaring, graduates have record levels of student debt and middle-class families are getting a raw deal. I had the opportunity to meet some incredibly talented students today and we all agreed that students and their families deserve better.
21. 21. Revised FacebookAd Will target liberal 17- 29 YOs for voter registration/mobilizati on Will clickthrough to microsite that features email list signup and link to online voter registration page Is one of a series that will be field tested in early summer Most successful ads will launch in massive effort in late summer
22. 22. Revised MailPlan Building onto the series of education mail pieces with an introduction piece that shows Nunn with her family Writing on other side of piece will be a short message from Nunn on why, as a mother, she decided to run for office Will be sent to 30-50 YO white women
23. 23. Revised TVSpot Replaced references about Nunns executive experience with references about her motherhood Replaced call to action, Lets vote to end the gridlock and get Washington working again with this election, lets send a leader to Washington that we can trust. Will target 30-50 YO white women
24. 24. RevisedRadioSpots Focus of revised radio spots will be a series of interviews with disgruntled Pillowtex and Dollar General female employees. Will try to employ the style of a somber interview with Terry Gross. Repeated theme throughout the series of spots will be we just cant trust David Perdue. Will target 30-50 YO white women, though significant overlap is expected in radio spots.
25. 25. ClosingThoughts To reiterate, statistics on demographic turnout are far from perfect Will have more accurate figures when the GA Secretary of State releases the formal election results. Statistics used have margins of error, which are especially relevant when dissecting numbers of narrow demographic groups Overall, purpose was to get an idea of the fundamentals of the race