Presentation of Steffen Noleppa, Agripol, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources Conference by...
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Toward more efficient land use How agricultural productivity growth may contribute to environmental responsibility Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources – 19 October 2011 1/19
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Transcript of Presentation of Steffen Noleppa, Agripol, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources Conference by...
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
1/19
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
2/19
• Productivity growth in EU agriculture: recent evidence
• The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
• Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture and
its impact on land use
• Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Contents
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
3/19
Total factor productivity growth by region, average growth rates p.a. (in %)
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
World region TFP index
1990-1999 2000-2006
Western Europe 1.97 1.39
Eastern Europe 1.03 0.58
Middle East & North Africa 1.59 1.56
North America 2.13 1.75
Latin America & Carribean 2.38 2.48
Northeast Asia, developed 2.55 3.08
Southeast Asia 1.60 2.16
Former USSR 1.60 3.28
Oceania 1.90 –0.25
Source: Fuglie (2008).
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
4/19
Land productivity in EU wheat and maize production, 1961-2009 (in mt/ha)
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
Source: Kirschke, Häger and Noleppa (2011).
y = 2,0406e0,0268x
0
2
4
6
8
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Wheat
y = 2,4474e0,0272x
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01
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03
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05
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07
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Maize
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
5/19
Annual productivity growth in German crop production, 1961-2009 (in %)
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
Source: von Witzke and Noleppa (2011, in press).
1961-1990 1991-2009
Wheat 2,4 1,1
Corn 3,2 2,0
Barley 2,2 0,7
Rye 1,7 1,0
OSR 2,4 1,7
Sugar beets 1,3 1,6
Potatoes 1,1 2,4
Protein crops 2,0 0,3
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
6/19
There is a slowing down of productivity growth! What are the reasons?
• Public R&D funding:
- Slowing down in additional funding
- Priority change: non-productive vs. productivity research areas
• EU policy and regulatory framework:
- Focus on agri-environmental measures and extensification
- Very restrictive GMO policy
• Global aspects:
- Land availability is limited
- Use of marginal land
- Occurrence of resource degradation / soil erosion
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
7/19
Agricultural land use in the European Union …
• Territory of the EU: 433 million hectares
• Utilized agricultural area: 180 million hectares
• Arable land: 107 million hectares
- in particular, cereals: 58 million hectares
• Grassland: 58 million hectares
.. is not enough to meet own demand.
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
8/19
EU net imports of virtual agricultural land, 2001-2010 (in million hectares)
On average
in 2008-2010:
29 million hectares
i.e. 27 percent of
EU‟s arable land.
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat (2011) data.
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
9/19
Structure of EU virtual net trade in agricultural land, on average 2008-2010:
• By region:
- South America: net imports of 20.0 million hectares,
- Sub-Sahara-Africa: net imports of 4.2 million hectares,
- CIS: net imports of 3.0 million hectares
- North Africa and the Near East: net exports of 3.6 million hectares.
• By crop:
- Soybeans: virtual net imports of 14.7 million hectares,
- Other oilseeds: virtual net imports of 7.4 million hectares,
- Coffee/Cocoa: virtual net imports of 6.2 million hectares,
- Wheat: virtual net exports of 2.0 million hectares.
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
10/19
Soybeans: EU net imports of virtual land, 2001-2010 (in million hectares)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Soybeans Total
Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat (2011) data.
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
11/19
Closing the so-called “attainable yield gap” (acc. to Hendijk et al., 2009):
• Attainable yield: yield that can be realized with existing technologies at
prevailing prices.
• Attainable yield gap: difference between actual and attainable yield.
• Drivers of change:
more sufficient application of labor and machinery, introduction of
modern phytosanitary methods and crop rotations, knowledge transfers
• Yield effects, e. g., assuming attainable yield gap is closed by one third:
- wheat: 16.1 percent,
- sugar beets: 8.7 percent,
- oilseeds: 26.5 percent.
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
12/19
Changes of EU trade in virtual land by commodity (in million hectares)
Imports of land
decline by about
18 million hectares.
Less imports, e.g.,
in corn & oilseeds.
More exports, e.g.,
in wheat
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
Wheat
Corn
Other cereals
Rice
Soybeans
Palm
Oilseed rape
Other oilseeds
Coffee and cocoa
Tea and tobacco
Fruit
Vegetables and potatoes
Pulses
Sugar crops
Cotton
Sum
Source: Own calculations.
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
13/19
Changes of EU trade in virtual land by region (in million hectares)
Land use in
South America
does not profit
too much.
This would partly
change if higher
production in the
EU would replace
soy in animal feed.
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Source: Own calculations.
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
North America
South America
Asia
North Africa and the Near East
Sub-Sahara-Africa
Europa (excl. EU)
CIS
Oceania
Rest of the world
Sum
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
14/19
What does this have to do with environmental responsibility?
• Currently and in the „mid-term‟ future:
agricultural demand will increase faster than agricultural supply.
• I.e., growth in agricultural production has to speed up.
• This can be achieved by using more land and/or producing more on land.
• It adds pressure on global land as most productive soils are already used.
• Already now, land use changes are a main driver of GHG emissions.
• In addition, sensitive ecosystems may be endangered in terms of
biodiversity and other environmental parameters.
• Hence, productivity growth is a very meaningful way out of the dilemma to
produce more food, feed, fuel, and fiber and to protect the environment.
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
15/19
The „golden‟ or „responsibility‟ triangle of productivity growth in agriculture
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Source: Own figure.
Increasing food
supply
Increasing climate
protection
Increasing environmental
benefits
Productivity growth in
agriculture
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
16/19
Summary on main findings:
• EU is a leading net importer in both agricultural commodities and
virtually traded agricultural land.
• Increasing EU production and productivity growth might be able to
significantly reduce net imports and pressure on the environment.
• Investing in productivity of crops for which the EU is relatively more
competitive than the ROW may act to increase land use efficiency.
• But, obviously, the EU is lagging behind in agricultural productivity
growth due to a number of reasons. The question is: What to do?
Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
17/19
Policy contributions:
• It is time to rediscover the neglected issue productivity in policy making!
• A re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand is
necessary (e.g., environmental policies, bio-energy policies, regulations).
• Policy should create a stable and reliable environment for future
investments in agriculture enabling farmers to use modern technologies.
• Policy makers need to re-focus R&D funding: volume and priorities.
• EU responsibility for global developments (e.g., indirect land use
changes) has to take into account by the CAP more than at present.
Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
18/19
(Selected) research contributions:
• With respect to land use: visualize impacts of changes in supply and
demand on land use changes and associated issues.
• This should include the assessment of developments in production
structures (e.g. protein production) and consumption (e.g. meat demand).
• With respect to future productivity growth: improved breeding activities
and agronomic practices.
• By doing so, a more systemic view seems necessary.
• Finally, awareness that agricultural research is socially highly profitable
(economic and environmental profitability!) needs to be strengthened .
Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
19 October 2011
19/19
Thank you for your attention.
Dr. Steffen Noleppa
agripol – network for policy advice GbR
Schivelbeiner Str. 21, 10439 Berlin (Germany)
www.agripol.net
