Presentation of "Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy"
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Transcript of Presentation of "Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy"
Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate:
The Role of National Drought Policy
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite Faculty of Applied Climate Science
School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln
FAO Near East Regional Office, Cairo, Egypt, 1 March 2015
Two Phrases to Remember
• If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got! – "You cannot solve current problems with
current thinking. Current problems are the result of current thinking." Albert Einstein
–It’s about changing the paradigm for drought management!
• Who and what is at risk and why? – Issues of vulnerability and risk reduction
• Goal: To build resilience, increase coping and institutional capacity
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management
Crisis Management
If you do what you’ve always
done, you’ll get what you’ve always got.
We MUST adopt a new paradigm for
drought management!
Crisis Management Characteristics
• Ineffective, treats symptoms of drought
• Untimely, response actions
• Increases reliance on government/donors
• Poorly coordinated, national to local level
actions
• Expensive, large expenditures from
numerous government agencies (and
donors)
• Increases vulnerability?
The Cycle of Disaster Management
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
Promotes a paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risk!
Drought Risk Management
(Adapted from Sayers et al., 2015)
The role of
Drought Risk
Management
Policy and
Preparedness is to promote
resilience to
drought
episodes based
upon:
i) An appropriate understanding of
the drivers of drought risk and
associated uncertainties (present
and future).
ii) Integrated action across multiple
sectors and from policy to practice.
iii) Identifying and implementing
‘win-win’ actions that produce
healthy ecosystems and reduce the
vulnerability of human systems.
iv) Using limited resources (financial
and human) to efficiently reduce risk
and maximize opportunities.
v) Robust and flexible solutions that
are capable of adapting to the reality
of the future as it becomes known.
Strategic Risk-based Approach for Building Drought Resilience Determining the right balance of measures:
A portfolio approach
Sayers et al., 2015
Major Drought Areas—2012
Drought differs from one region to another in terms of its physical characteristics, impacts and coping
capacity (mitigation and response).
Drought policies cannot be prescriptive since each country in unique in institutional structure, legal framework, etc.
A drought policy should be broadly stated and . . .
• Establish a clear set of risk-based principles or guidelines to govern drought management.
• Policy could be part of a disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation framework
• Consistent and equitable for all regions, population groups, and economic/social sectors.
• Consistent with the goals of sustainable development.
• Reflect regional differences in drought characteristics, vulnerability and impacts.
A drought policy should (continued)
• Promote the principles of risk management by encouraging development of – Early warning and delivery systems;
• Reliable seasonal forecasts;
– Preparedness plans at all levels of government, within river basins, and the private sector;
– Vulnerability assessments —who and what is at risk and why?
– Mitigation actions that reduce drought impacts and the need for government intervention;
– Coordinated emergency response that ensures targeted and timely relief, consistent with drought policy goals, during drought emergencies.
Necessary Ingredients for National Drought Policy Development
• Political will and leadership!
• Initial investment in building greater
institutional capacity vs. cost of inaction
• Collaborative environment that supports
and encourages coordination within and
between levels of government/private
sector
• Engaged and supportive stakeholders
• Engaged research community
• Strong outreach and media program
http://www.droughtmanagement.info/about-idmp/guidelines/
National Drought Policy:
A 10-Step Process
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Appoint a national drought policy commission
State or define the goals and objectives of a risk-
based national drought management policy
Seek stakeholder participation and define/resolve
conflicts between key water use sectors, considering
transboundary implications.
Inventory data and financial resources available
and identify groups at risk
Prepare/write the key tenets of a national drought
management policy and preparedness plans (monitoring, early warning and prediction; risk/vulnerability
and impact assessment; mitigation and response) 3 Pillars
3 Pillars of Drought Policy & Preparedness: An Integrated Approach
Monitoring/Early
Warning/Prediction
& Info. Delivery
Drought status (Met., Agric., Hydro. & Socio-
economic)
Mitigation and
Response
Actions and measures to mitigate drought
impacts and respond to drought emergencies
(short-, medium- & long-term)
Risk/Vulnerability and
Impact Assessment
Who/What is at RISK & Why?
Prioritization/Ranking
Drought characterization
studies
Feedback
• To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.
Risk Assessment: Purpose
Who and what is at risk and why?
Vulnerability Profile
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
Step 9
Step 10
National Drought Policy: A 10-Step Process
(continued)
Identify research needs and fill institutional gaps
Integrate science and policy aspects of drought
management
Publicize the national drought management policy
and preparedness plans, build public awareness
and consensus
Develop education programs for all age and
stakeholder groups
Evaluate, test and revise drought management
policy and supporting preparedness plans
Monitoring, Early Warning & Information Delivery Systems
Indicators/Indices
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Surface water supplies – Stream flow
– Soil Moisture
– Reservoir levels
– Snow pack
– Water use
• Ground water
• Remotely-sensed data (e.g., plant water stress)
• Impacts – By sector, area
Agencies/Ministries/Organizations
• Water
• Meteorological & Hydrological Services
• Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries
• Environment
• Health
• Energy
• Transportation
• Commerce
• Social Services
• NGOs
• Others
Vulnerability/Impact Assessment, Mitigation and Response
By Sector
• Agriculture
• Energy
• Environment, Recreation & Tourism
• Transportation
• Health
• Commerce
• Others
Agencies, Organizations &
Stakeholder Groups
• Reps from Ministries and
non-governmental
organizations
• Communities & regional
organizations
• Stakeholder groups
representing all impact
sectors
• Others
• Drought management
areas (provinces, river
basins)
• Communities (rural, urban)
• Indigenous population
Who and What is at RISK and Why?
By Area/Region
1. Establish sector specific working groups at the sub-national level to discuss impacts, identify the root causes of vulnerability and prioritize steps for risk reduction. Include technical experts, stakeholder groups, etc.
2. Identify impacts of recent/historical droughts and impact trends in order to assess sector/area vulnerabilities.
3. Prioritize impacts and identify mitigation actions and interventions that would reduce impacts (short vs. long term).
4. Where appropriate, identify triggers to phase in and phase out mitigation actions during drought onset or termination.
5. Identify agencies and organizations, develop collaborative strategies and authorities to implement actions.
Risk Assessment Methodology: Developing a Vulnerability Profile
Steps:
Impacts Actions Ministries/
NGOs Triggers
Reduced urban
water supplies Implementing water
conservation measures
Reservoir level, # days
remaining Local water authority,
Ministry of Water
Reduced forage for
livestock
Incentive program to
provide on-farm storage
Ministry of Agriculture,
farm organizations
Variable farm
income
Create tax-free savings
program
Ministry of Agriculture,
Finance
Reduced irrigation
water supplies
Prioritizing water uses,
restricting irrigation
Reduced streamflow,
GW, snowpack, forecast
Ministry of Water, Agric.,
Environment
Increased fire
danger
Education programs,
restricting fires
Fire index, forecast, soil
moisture
Ministry of Agric., Health,
Forestry, Interior, Environ.
Risk Management Matrix (Scale)
Preparedness
- Planning
- Post-crisis
evaluation
- Revision
Mitigation
- Actions,
strategies,
interventions
- Insurance
Relief
- Post-impact
interventions
Rehabilitation
- Recovery
strategies
and
interventions
Indiv/HHs Community Dist/Prov NGOs Natl. Govt Donors
Micro Meso Macro
Takeaway Messages • Drought is a normal part of climate.
• Changing precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, form
• Increasing temperatures will increase ET and demand for
water resources drought severity, frequency and duration.
• Past drought management efforts have been reactive—
ineffective, poorly coordinated & poorly targeted (crisis
management).
• Managing sector impacts—increase resilience to drought.
• Integrated drought management requires a collaborative
approach within and between levels of government and with
the private sector for monitoring and early warning,
risk/vulnerability assessment and mitigation and response.
• Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management through integrated drought management.
• The ‘cost of inaction’!
School of Natural Resources Applied Climate Sciences
Thanks for your attention!
Contact Information:
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln