Presentation jan bekkering 2012 11-21 edc groningen

16
Modeling sustainable gas supply chains - Balancing supply and demand J. Bekkering

Transcript of Presentation jan bekkering 2012 11-21 edc groningen

Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

-Balancing supply and

demand

J. Bekkering

18-04-2023 2Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Considered green gas supply chain

‘Standard’ calculation model, constant gas production

18-04-2023 3Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Cost priceAt constant production

18-04-2023 4Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Seasonal fluctuation gas demand

-

time

mn

3 /hr

time

ton

nes/

yr

time

ton

nes

time

mn

3 /hr

time

mn

3 /hr

What is the cost price of green gas as a function of scale, when the seasonal fluctuation in

gas demand should be met by a green gas supply chain?

18-04-2023 5Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

How to model seasonal gas demand

Data Sep. 2009 – Sep. 2010

18-04-2023 6Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Range of Fourier curvesDemand (theoretical)

18-04-2023 7Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Three considered scenarios

Scenario 1

Scenario 1: Flexible biogas production

timem

n3 /h

rtime

mn

3 /hr

18-04-2023 8Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Three considered scenarios

Scenario 2

Scenario 1: Flexible biogas production

Scenario 2: Green gas storage within supply chain

Gas storageQ 10,000 Nm≦3

: pipes 8.5 bar

10,000 < Q < 300,000 Nm3

: pipes 100 bar (and compression)

18-04-2023 9Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Three considered scenarios

Scenario 3

Scenario 1: Flexible biogas production

Scenario 2: Green gas storage within supply chain

Scenario 3: Adding second digester (with 6 months production)

Production second digester only during winter months

18-04-2023 10Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Results overview scale 0.8E6Influence Seasonal Swing Factor on cost price

18-04-2023 11Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Results overview scale 2.4E6Influence Seasonal Swing Factor on cost price

18-04-2023 12Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Results flexible biogas prod.Influence Seasonal Swing Factor on cost price

18-04-2023 13Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Conclusions/Further research-

- Increasing SSF means large storage need

- Gas storage is very expensive

- Green gas production (still?) preferably near business areas

- Research into flexible biogas production makes sense

The

End

18-04-2023 15Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Results green gas storageInfluence Seasonal Swing Factor on cost price

Q 10,000 Nm≦3

: pipes 8.5 bar

10,000 < Q < 300,000 Nm3

: pipes 100 bar (and compression)

18-04-2023 16Modeling sustainable gas supply chains

Results second digesterInfluence Seasonal Swing Factor on cost price

Production second digester during winter months