Presentation frances ruane
-
Upload
athens-biennale -
Category
Economy & Finance
-
view
111 -
download
1
description
Transcript of Presentation frances ruane
The Great Recession: An Irish Perspective
Frances Ruane
Athens Biennale, October 12, 2013
2
Society and the Great Recession..
Return to more sombre times in Ireland BUT Seamus Heaney (2009) said that people do not
live by economics alone: “if poetry and the arts can do anything, they can fortify your inner life, your inwardness”
Creativity in all domains has strengthened Feeding into theatre, film, art, novels and poetry Feeding into new businesses and new ideas But there have been great costs ...
3
Key Features of the Irish Economy
Strong multinationals in high-growth sectors Services are really important Strong domestic food sector Significant tourism BUT High wage costs and high prices Strong vested interests (e.g. Professions) Pub Sector efficiency needs to increase Troika has been important
4
Impact of the Great Recession
Growth
Unemployment
Migration
Public Finances
Poverty and Equality
Government response required austerity plus solidarity
5
Irish Real GDP Growth 1948 – 2012
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
GDP Growth rate
Irish Growth Performance in Context
% change
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
Employment and Unemployment Rates (%)
Unemployment rate
Employment rate
2000 - 2012% %
Net Migration, Immigration and Emigration
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Emigration Immigration Net Migration
Th
ou
san
ds
9
Public Finances – Debt to GDP Ratio
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Debt as a percentage of GDP
Poverty, Deprivation & Inequality rates % %
Consistent Poverty
Deprivation
At Risk of Poverty
Gini coefficient
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0Budget 2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Budgets 2009 to 2013
Income distribution effects of First Austerity Budget supported Solidarity
Income Distribution Effects of Cumulative Austerity Budgets
Percentage changes in income by Decile
Distributive impact on Households containingan elderly person Vs with a child
Budgets 2009-2012
WHY?
13
The Grey Protest, September 2008
14
Ireland’s Future Growth Prospects
EU stability/performance is crucialGrowth depends mostly on exportsEU-27/US are our major markets Can Ireland recover? Confidence is crucial for growthUncertainty abounds ..
15-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0% GDP Growth
WORLD
Global Growth potential but ...
16
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0% GDP Growth
WORLD
US
EU
Lower in our key markets
17
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
GDP Growth
CHINA
WORLD
=> Higher growth means entering new markets
Ireland’s Growth Prospects: Scenarios Recovery scenario
Recovery in the EU National macro strategies work out
Delayed Adjustment scenario EU recovery Domestic recovery delayed (policy failure)
Stagnation scenario EU stagnation National macro strategies cannot work
ESRI Medium Term Review 2013
GNP
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
170000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Recovery Stagnation Delayed Adjustment
Debt / GNP Ratio
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Recovery Stagnation Delayed Adjustment
Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
% o
f Lab
our F
orce
Recovery Stagnation Delayed Adjustment
Public Finances – Current Debate
Balance between expenditure and taxation –has been 2:1 formula throughout
Approach: Deliver on agreement with Troika Current Options : 1: Cut by €3.1bn – as per Troika Agreement ( 2: Take benefit of increased recent
performance and cut by less the €3.1bn Government and Troika: €2.5 bn Solidarity Focus
23
Trade Union March, 2012
Economic Overview
Austerity approach has been painfulSocial Response has been relatively muted ..Distribution effects have helped solidarity Delivery on promises rewarded by marketBUTMany old legacy issues not yet tackledNew legacy issues will need to be sortedLooking forward
25
Looking Forward..
Creativity
Transformation
Flexibility
Innovation