Presentation by Jan de Leeuw “3 rd CRAM Meeting” RCRMD Nairobi, Kenya
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Transcript of Presentation by Jan de Leeuw “3 rd CRAM Meeting” RCRMD Nairobi, Kenya
Presentation by Jan de Leeuw
“3rd CRAM Meeting”RCRMD Nairobi, Kenya
Remote sensing applications in support of drought early warning and NRM in rangelands
ILRI and RS in rangelands
• ILRI - livestock and rangeland research
• Focus on livelihoods livestock keepers– Poverty and vulnerability reduction – Enhancing food security – Environmental sustainability
• Research aiming at impact• Involving users of information early stage
ILRI and RS in rangelands
• Drought management– Review effectiveness drought management– Livestock population dynamics – Livestock insurances–
• Natural resource management – Payment and accounting ecosystem services – Watershed management
Risk in the ASALs
• Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) residents live in harsh and volatile environments
• High level of risk:– Drought, Disease, Conflict
• Low coping capacity:– Infrastructure deficient– Few alternative opportunities
• ASALs 70% national livestock herd, valued 0.7 Billion US $
Impact Drought on Livelihoods
Livestock is both the principal asset and source of income for the vast majority of ASAL residents
Proportion of total income by source
Impact of Drought on Livelihoods
• Drought single greatest cause of livestock mortality
Livestock mortality by cause
Review of livestock interventions1.Severe drought in 2008 – 2009
2.Kenya has drought management system and policy
3.Relief focuses on people and on livestock
4.EU commissioned review of responses to drought targeted at livestock
Kenya and drought
Kenya facing recurrent drought
National drought management system (DMS)
1. Drought management policies2. Early warning system
1. Monthly early warning bulletins 3. Contingency plan and fund 4. Coordination and response structure
Decision making drought management interventions
Normal
Alert
Recovery
Emergency
DMCEWBDSSwhat to do
Pastoral lands and livelihoods
Information
DCF
Relief
Approach study
1.Review available early warning data
2.Survey of stakeholders in six districts
1. Interviews of Gov, NGO’s and communities
2.What interventions and when
3.Timeliness, appropriateness and effectiveness and involvement of stakeholders
3.Review triggers for release of contingency funds
Characterization drought
NDVI– Long term
monthly data 1982 – 2009
– Moving average 12 months NDVI
Findings – – Severe drought
in South Kenya– Above normal
conditions North
Timing of interventions
• Early warning (EWB) alarm stage
• Districts without RS drought evidence given highest alarm
• Social indicators higher weight than state of rangeland
Insight causes and impacts of drought
Rainfall in E Africa related to ENSO
Since Aug 201o severe La Nina phase
La Nina associated with poor short rains
Repetitive drought
• Droughts differ in depth and duration
• Droughts not regular recurrence
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
1980 1990 2000 2010
ND
VI
Year
Livestock and repetitive drought
• Aerial survey data Kadjiado
• Livestock biomass relates to 5 year average NDVI
• NDVI now at historic low
• Collapse livestock populations
Effectiveness of drought management strategies
• Drought management strategies assume drought to be regular and short
• RS record learns that droughts differ in depth, duration and repeat time
• Strategies effective during short lived and moderate drought may be ineffective during deep, prolonged and repetitive drought
Index Based Livestock Insurances (IBLI)
• Livestock mortality imposes costs on pastoralists
• Insurance can mitigate this risk
• Conventional insurance not viable in remote areas - high transactions costs
• IBLI makes payment to policy holders based on external “index” that triggers payouts
Need for a measure that is:
1. Highly correlated with livestock mortality2. Reliably and cheaply available3. Historically available
NDVI + livestock mortality data Response function to calculate risk and
premium
The INBI Index
Performance of Predicted Livestock Mortality Index
Temporal structure of IBLI contract and cumulative standardized NDVI
IBLI Product Design
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Period of continuing observation of NDVIfor constructing LRLD mortality index
LRLD season coverage SRSD season coverage
1 year contract coverage
Sale periodFor SRSD
Predicted SRSD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered
Period of NDVI observationsfor constructing SRSDmortality index
Prior observation of NDVI sincelast rain for LRLD season
Sale periodFor LRLD
Sale periodFor SRSD
Predicted LRLD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered
Prior observation of NDVI since last rainfor SRSD season
Short Rain Short Dry Long Rain Long Dry Short Rain Short Dry
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Period of continuing observation of NDVIfor constructing LRLD mortality index
LRLD season coverage SRSD season coverage
1 year contract coverage
Sale periodFor SRSD
Predicted SRSD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered
Period of NDVI observationsfor constructing SRSDmortality index
Prior observation of NDVI sincelast rain for LRLD season
Sale periodFor LRLD
Sale periodFor SRSD
Predicted LRLD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered
Prior observation of NDVI since last rainfor SRSD season
Short Rain Short Dry Long Rain Long Dry Short Rain Short Dry
Contract Sales Jan/Feb 2010
• Uptake by 6% and 2% of households • Small herd size (TLU) insured• Small size as business, need to grow• Lack of understanding of the product in Jan-Feb 2010
Sale period
Contracts sold
Total TLU
insuread
Average TLU
Insured
Total value of TLU insuread
(KSH)
Total value of premiums
(KSH)Jan-Feb
2010 1,979 5,965 3.0 89,475,000 3,494,513
Jan-Feb 2011 637 1,085 1.7 16,275,000 630,728
Development of insurance
• ILRI with insurer and reinsurer
• Commercial sustainability – reinsurance
• Social impacts – resilience livelihoods?
• Environmental impacts?
• RS data continuity
Natural resource management
• Livelihood approach to rangelands – What benefits do people derive from rangelands? – Importance rangelands to pastoralists and economy?
• Several activities to account for – benefits that people derive from rangelands– the ecosystem services that support these benefits
• Providing spatial information to support government and local communities
Mapping ecosystem services Ewaso Ng’iro catchment
• Mapping ecosystem services of the Ewaso Ng’iro catchment
• Purpose to support Ministry of North Kenya and Arid Lands
• Compiling atlas based on existing spatial information
Social indicators - poverty rates
Natural Resources - livestock
Competing claims and wildlife
Valuing services
•Valuation of ecosystem services •Based on mapping of services and economic information
Data availability and gaps
• Surprising how much data was available
• Specific gaps where RS could assist– Rangeland biomass production – Rangeland degradation – Rainfall estimates– Partitioning of water resources – Livestock surveys
Support discussion on water use in Ewaso catchment
• Many highland rivers discharge in drylands
• Discharge important to downstream users – Secure surface water and forage– Recharge of aquifers and wetlands
• Retention of agricultural water upstream deprives downstream communities from rivers’ benefits
• Synthesis of upstream downstream connectivity to support discussion among water use associations
The Ewaso Ng’iro catchment
Lorian Swamp
To Nairobi
Archer’s Post
Mt. Kenya
Upstream agriculture
Merti
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10
100
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mo
nth
ly d
isch
arg
e (
m3
.s-1
)
Year
Abstractions and discharge at Archer’s
Monthly NDVI 1998 - 2010
Impact on vegetation biomass
• Significant relation water inflow and difference NDVI swamp and surroundings
• Outliers reflect local rains
Lorian Swamp
NDVI
Ewaso Ng’iro discharge and ecosystem services Lorian swamp
Water Ecosystem service Benefits
Surface-green
Livestock production Multiple uses
Wildlife conservation Tourism & public good
Domestic use Nutrition and hygiene
Livestock production Multiple uses
Wildlife conservation Tourism & public goods
Surface-blue
Fish production Food & cash
Irrigated crops Food & cash
Ground-blue
Domestic use Nutrition and hygiene
Livestock production Multiple uses 1
Vulnerability to abstractions of the benefits from river water
• Blue surface water – highly vulnerable
• Green water – highly vulnerable
• Groundwater recharge – low vulnerability
• Insight will be used in discussion between up and downstream water use associations
RS and policy
• Policy development messy process
• No regular pattern
• Policy cycle scheme phases in policy development
• Useful to help thinking function of remote sensing
IMPLEMENTPOLICY
POLICYFORMULATION
EVALUATE
CONTROL
PROBLEMRECOGNITION
Policy cycle - Example Drought Management
IMPLEMENTPOLICY
POLICYFORMULATION
EVALUATE
CONTROL
PROBLEMRECOGNITION
Problem – Social impacts of drought
Formulate drought management policy
Implement – policy instruments
Control
Evaluate
Agenda RS applications address problems in pastoral lands
• Institutional context of RS information provisioning
• Evaluate impact of RS data supply
• Develop new products – Methods livestock surveys – Insight livestock production and droughts – Rangeland biomass production and degradation – Rainfall and partitioning of water resources
International Livestock Research InstituteBetter lives through livestock
Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries
ILRI www.ilri.org