Presentation BONHOFF

8/7/2019 Presentation BONHOFF

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ALDE Seminar, Brussels | 15.03.2011

NOW GmbH | Klaus Bonhoff | Managing Director/Chair

Market Preparation of Hydrogen Mobility

The situation in Germany

Market Preparation of Hydrogen Mobility

The situation in Germany


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A global industry group assessed the potential of

alternative power-trains for passenger cars in Europe

based on proprietary company data

Core questions

How do FCEVs, BEVs, and PHEVs

compare to ICEs on

Cost

Emissions Energy efficiency

Driving performance?

What are viable production and supply

pathways?

What are the potential market

segments for the different power-train

technologies?

1 Report can be downloaded fromwww.now-gmbh.de/presse/studie-entkarbonisierung-individualverkehrs.html

www.europeanclimate.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=92&Itemid=42

Press release 8th

November 2010,Brussels1


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Series hybrid

conf

gurat

on of e ectr

c

and ICE dr ve3

Smaller battery capacity

than BEV, (L

-

on)

Veh

c e can be plugged-into charge from the gr d

Small ICE-based

generator for arger range

(range extender)

Short range: typ ca y

40-60 km) e ectr

c dr

v

ng.

(based on battery we ght

of 20-80 kg2)

Purely electric dr ve

Large battery capac ty,

L

-

on techno ogy

On y charg

ng of batteryfrom the gridwh

e

stat

onary1

Short range: typ

ca y

150-250 km (based on

battery we

ght of

70-180 kg2)

Series conf gurat on of fue

ce

system and e ectr

c

dr ve

Fuel cell stack based on

PEM techno ogy

Hydrogen tank pressuretyp ca

y 350 or 700 bar

Medium range : typ ca y

400-600 km

Conventional interna

combustion engine

No dependencyone ectric infrastructure

High fuel consumption

and exhaust emissions

High range: typica y

800-1200 km

Parallel hybrid

configuration of e ectric

and ICE drive; a so known

as hybrid e ectric vehic e

(HEV)

ICE is primary mover

of the vehic e with support

from sma

e ectric motor

Small battery charged

by the ICE

Fu

y e

ectric driving on

yat low speed forsmaller

distances (


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A portfolio of power-trains for Europe:

A fact based analysis The Potential

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140160

180

200

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600

O

e issions

gCO2 /

Ran e

I E asoline

2050

I E diesel

2010

E

2050

1 ICE

ge f

2050

ed

f el economy improvement

nd

ming t

nk

ize

t

ysconst

nt

ssuming 6

CO2 reductiondue

to iofuels y 2020; 24

y 2050

E

2010

2050

2010

2010

2050

P E

Lowemissions nd ighrange

SOURCE:Studyanalysis

C/ SEGMENT

BEVs and FCEVs can

achieve significantly lower

CO2 emissions, while BEVs

show limitations in range.


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A portfolio of power-trains for Europe:

A fact based analysis The FCEV Advantage

E /year/car1, assumingnocost of O2

Annual

drivingdistance

,

A/ /

1

1 -2

>2

EV/ EV/FCEV

Lowest CO abate ent solutionT Odelta to I E2

FCEV

1!

onstant lifetime, " ut different totaldrivingdistances #$ %

,% % %

km; 18%

,% % %

km;& ' %

,% % %

km)

2!

alculatedas I!

ET!

Ominuslowest (!

EV/ ) EV/0 1

EVT!

O. NegativenumbersindicateaT!

Oadvantageovert 2 e I!

E

SO 3 4!

E:Studyanalysis

2 5 5 5

Long term, FCEVs are

the best solution for CO2

abatement in large vehicleswith high annual mileage.


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The results of the factual study are promising for fuel

cell technology

6

1 Fuel and power production on the basis of renewable energies and/or CCS technology2 Assuming an uptake of one mill ion FCEV in 2020 (cumulative carpark)

CO2 reduction BEV and FCEV are the main powertrain technologies capable of achieving the most ambitious 95%

C 2 emission reduction as targeted by the EU (EU 2050 Roadmap)1

Robustness Electric vehicles can be fueled with a broader range of feedstocks than ICEs

Technology More than 15 million km on the road demonstrate that technological hurdles and safety issues

have been overcome, FCEV are being geared up forindustrialization

CostCompetitiveness

The initial TC disadvantage towards ICE is primarily based on the lack of economies of scale andwill converge with the industriali ation of FCEV. Fuel cell system cost are expected to decreaseby 90% until 20202

Marketpotential

FCEVs play a complementary role to BEVs and PHEVs. FCEVs are ideally suited to medium/larger

cars and longer trips accounting for 50% of all cars and 75% of CO2 emissions. FCEVs aretherefore an effective low-carbon solution for a large proportion of the fleet

Infrastructure Due to H S technology improvement and ramp up, capex per station has the potential to decrease by~50% until 2020, however significant investment is needed for a large-scale roll-out

Incentivesand financinginstruments

Given a reasonable incentive system and funding instruments, the TCO disadvantages manyalready be leveled out by ~2020

Next steps H2 Mobility business case Germany as a pilot and lead market


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Source Vaillant

Transportation 54% * Includes H2 production and infrastructure

Expanding vehicle fleets and hydrogen

infrastructure starting from key regions

Stationary Applications 36% * FC micro CHP for residential use

Industrial FC gensets for CHP and

trigeneration

Special Markets 10% *

IT, telecommunications

Logistics, leisure and tourism

markets

Source CEP

Source BMVSource Telekom / PASM

95 projects

Funding: 229 million(BMVBS, Jan.2011)

95 projects

Funding: 229 million(BMVBS, Jan.2011)

Preparing Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Markets:

National Innovation Program (NIP)

* Planned distribution

according to National

Development Plan v

2.1.


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Clean Energy Partnership

Planning Through 2013

1 Additional industry

projects e.g. Chemergy

not included

2 Planning hori6

on shownis only until 2013

3 Part of CEP since 2010,

rollout of actual demo

project tbd

4 Request for participation

was submitted in 2010,

decision about

admittance in 2011

5 Only partly accessible by

public

6 HRS at A 24 (highway

from Berlin to Hamburg)

not included as planning

unclear

Start

date

Current no. of

public H Segion

No. of FCEV

planned2

Berlin 2002

Hamburg 2008

Nordrhein-Westfalen 20103

Baden-Wrttemberg 20103

Hessen 20114

Total no. of

public H S

planned2

2

15

0

1

1

46

46

1

4

2

63

25

10

20

15


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Hydrogen Production

Focussing on Wind Power and Biomass

Bundesverband WindEnergie

FNR

KBB Underground TechnologiesIncreased Wind Capacity will make

wind power the most important

source for hydrogen production

beyond 2020

Large scale Electrolyser is a keytechnology

Studies show potential for wind-

hydrogen-systems to store large

quantities of fluctuating energy

Biomass will play an important roleas feedstock for hydrogen

production beyond 2020

Gasification technologies are key


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H2 Mobility Initiative

vercoming the Chicken and EggDilemma

Memorandum ofUnderstanding for H2-Mobility signed Sept. 10th 2009 in Berlin

Ten key stakeholders from industries (OEM, oil, utility & industrial gas)

and NOW as public-private-partnership

Intention to build up hydrogen fueling infrastructure

and establishing Germany as lead market

10


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Phase 1: 2009 2011

Techno-economic evaluation of the feasibility to deploy a networkof HRS alongside the expected deployment of FCEVs in Germanyby 2015 (2009 2010)

Definition of the future Consortium Agreement Contract / Partnersnegotiation phase (2011)

Deployment of new HRS supported by the German Administration(Konjunkturpaket II subsidy scheme)

Phase 2: 2011+

Implementation of the hydrogen retail infrastructure by parties participating inthe consortium

H2 Mobility defined two successive phases

11


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In Phase 1, 17 private companies and N W developed roll-out scenarios for a

hydrogen infrastructure and FCEVs

Participating companies

Main achievements

Bottom-up development

ofconsistent infra-

structure and FCEV roll-

out scenarios

Assessment of econom-

ics associated with

hydrogen infrastructure

rollout in GER

Analysis ofsensitivities

and quantification of

risks and opportunities

Car EMs

Industrial gas

companies

il and gas

companies

Utilities

Govern-

mental rg

12


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Industry group evaluated roll-out scenarios forGermany applying a "clean

room" approach and an effective project organization

Project approach and working groups with industry

Clean

Team1

Econo-

mic

model

and

network

planning

Verified

and sanitized

input data

H2 production

roadmap

H2 cost

CO2 footprint

Industry

group:

Production

and supply

HRS types

Capex/Opex

Specifications

Industry

group:

Hydrogen

refueling

stations

FCEV roll-out

Rollout regions

H2 demand

Industrygroup:

Customer

value

proposition

Case A

Case B

Financial results

McKinsey & Company 10|SOURCE :H 2 Mobility

Investment 1

Revenue

GCF

EBIT

EUR millions p.a.

23222120191817161514132012 2030292827262524

Station roll-out

FCEV roll-out

Regional coverage H2 production and

supply roadmap

CO2 abatement

13

1 Separate third-party team handling confidential data


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Main achievements and selected end products for pilot market

Germany

oll-out

scenarios for H2

station network

and FCEVs

Development ofFCEV roll-out scenarios with car

OEMs via "clean team" based on assumptions (e.g.,

incentives, market environment)

Assessment ofH2 station rollout and network

requirements (e.g., density, si es)7

89

@

9

A

9 B9 C9 D9 E9

F7

8 9

7 7 @7 A7

B

7

C

7

D

7

E

7 F7 77

9

7

8

F

8

FCEV car park

G um H er of H2

stations

H2 production

and supply road

map

Assessment ofH2 production technologies on cost

and CO2 emissions (water electrolysis, steam

methane reforming, etc.)

Definition of H2 production and supply mixes

focusing on CO2

abatement, sustainability, and

economic efficiency

I iomass ref.

PQ CC

PQ CC+CCR

I yS product

T

roduction costs2

CarU

on footprint

SM V

SM V +CCS

WE ( V ECS )

I iogas ref.

I ioliq ref.

Dist. SM V

CQ

CQ +CCS

Holistic roll-out

cases

Description of consistent rollout case for ermany

Financial assessment of roll out cases including

NPV, investment, payback time

Evaluation ofrisks and sensitivities

EW

X

203029282726252423222120191817161514132012

14

oll out regions

and timing

Analyses of erman regions on traffic density,

income per capita, car registrations, etc.

Definition of"focus regions" and connecting

highways

2 Y XX 2 Y XX2 Y XX2 Y XX 2 Y XX2 Y XX2015 2025


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H2 Mobility alignment on regulations, codes, and

standards to ensure compatibility of any H S and FCEV

egulations,

codes, and

standards

Fueling

protocol

Fueling

connector

Hydrogen

quality

Dispenser

testing/

acceptance

Permitting

framework

Mass-flow

metering


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Next steps for H2 Mobility

16

Analy e incentive scheme

among industry, GER

government, and EC

Define business and

implementation plan

Align with government on

potential incentives

Align with key

stakeholders

Negotiate future

organi ation

Participants internal

reviews of roll-out

scenarios

Collect feedback and

update roll-out scenarios

Implementation planoll-out scenario

evaluation

Stakeholder alignment

and negotiations


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Thank you!Thank you!

www.now-gmbh.de

Presentation BONHOFF

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