Presentation at the IEA-RETD Workshop „Capitalising on...
Transcript of Presentation at the IEA-RETD Workshop „Capitalising on...
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Presentation at the IEA-RETD Workshop „Capitalising on Renewables: Short- and Medium-term Opportunities and Economic & Employment Benefits“
27 September 2012, Ottowa, Canada
The German and European RE Policy - Motivation, Targets and its Economic Implications -
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Part I: Germany RE policy
Part II: BMU financed study on RE-jobs: Employment
impact in Germany (GWS)
Part III: EU financed study on RE jobs: EmployRES -
Employment impact of RES in the EU (Fh ISI)
Table of Content
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Why is Germany interested in RET deployment and its economic & employment impact
Germany has legally anchored its RE policy (most relevant ones)
RE Sources Act (EEG) (for power) and RES Heat Act (EEWärmeG)
Both acts require an evaluation of the RE policy on a regular basis
Targets of these acts: Electricity share: at least 35 % of RES by 2020 (50 % in 2030;
65 % in 2040; 80 % in 2050) Gross final energy consumption: at least 18% RES in 2020. Heat share: 14% of final heat consumption in 2020
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Source: BMU 2012: http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/english/renewable_energy/data_service/graphics/doc/39831.php
Current RE use and targets in Germany:
Renewable energy sources as a share of energy supply in Germany
3.24.5
0.9
4.3
7.8
10.912.2
5.6
10.4
20.018.0 1)
10.0 1,2)
14.0 1)
minimum 35.0 1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Share of RES in total grosselectricity consumption
Share of RES in totalenergy consumption for
heat
Share of RES in fuelconsumption for road traffic
in transport sector (2)
Share of RES in total finalenergy consumption
(electricity, heat, fuels)
Share of RES in totalprimary energyconsumption (3)
Shar
e in
[%]
2002 2004 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2020
1) Sources: Targets of the German Government, Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG); Renewable Energy Sources Heat Act (EEWärmeG), EU-Directive 2009/28/EC;2) total consumption of engine fuels, excluding fuel in air traffic; 3) calculated using efficiency method; source: Working Group on Energy Balances e.V. (AGEB); RES: Renewable Energy Sources;
source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional
Targets:
Gross final energy
Transport sector
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Why is Germany interested in RE deployment and its economic & employment impact
Purpose of the policies (acts):
to ensure security of energy supplies reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports
to protect our climate and the environment mitigate climate change
to reduce the overall economic costs of energy supply, also by incorporating external long-term effects short-term cost (price volatility) and long-term effects (damages)
to conserve fossil fuels and to promote the further development of technologies for the
generation of electricity from renewable energy sources gain from first mover advantages
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Projects (selected examples ongoing): Evaluation of the RES Acts: Time frame: 2–3 years, Budget: 0.5 - 1 m €
Effects of increasing RET deployment (e.g. ImpRES): Time frame: 3 - 4 years; Budget: 0.5 - 1 million € Expected outcome: costs and benefits of RE use at the micro- and macro-economic level
Effects on economic growth and employment (e.g. BMU Jobs): Time frame: 2 - 3 years; Budget: 0.5 - 1 million € Expected outcome: gross and net employment within the RE industry, impact on economy wide employment and growth (net impacts), regional impacts
Spending of the Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU)
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Increasing and large share of RES in electricity and heat generation:
Not only the environmental aspects but also economic & employment implications must be studied
Increasing policy costs of RET deployment public pressure: what are the benefits of RE?
(source: ISI et al. 2012)
Why does the BMU spend money for employment impact studies?
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Significance of
RE industry is increasing – what is its contribution in terms of employment?
(source: O’Sullivan et al. 2010. 2011. 2012) (note: in total about 29 million employees in Germany)
Why does the BMU spend money for employment impact studies?
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Gross employment shows the (increasing) significance of the RE
industry in Germany benefit within the RE sector
Studies show the contribution of each RE technology to employment vulnerability
Jobs per activity and general qualification structures provide information on the required qualification education
Results emphasis the relevance of exports for employment (each technology strengths but also vulnerability
The net benefit of RE use is positive
What are the results of the impact studies and how did the BMU use the results?
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Make sure you distinguish between the impact on jobs in the RE
industry and economy wide jobs (in all sectors) that also includes negative effects beyond the RE sector
Use a sectoral study to understand the significance (and structure) of the RE industry and use the economy wide study (net impact study) to understand the overall economic impact
If the impact on economy wide jobs is negative balance environmental effects versus employment effects … or include CO2-costs in the model and do the assessment again!
What could other countries learn from these studies?
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To conduct employment impact studies you need a sound
data base – the main challenge Collect data on total and new installed capacities, investments
in RE generation plants, turnover of RET industry, costs on construction, O&M, data an fuel supply (type of fuel supply imports. …), trade
Divide e.g. investments into cost components and allocate them across the NACE sectors
Develop a scenario for future effects that is based on international acknowledged energy and price developments
Do a survey in your domestic RE industry to get information on production structures and trade!
What could other countries learn from these studies?
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The German Federal Ministry has promoted first studies on
gross employment effects in 2004, on net employment effects in 2006 (“BMU RE job study”) RET deployment jobs
The EU launched a project to assess the net impact of RET deployment for all EU member states in 2008 (EmployRES) RE policy RET deployment jobs
These two studies have been the first comprehensive net impact studies (time horizon up to 2020 and 2030)
Results of two net employment impact studies
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Part II: BMU financed study on RE-jobs: Employment
impact in Germany (GWS)
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Employment impacts of renewable energy increase in Germany
“ BMU RE Job Study”
Philip Ulrich Ulrike Lehr
Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH. Osnabrück
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gws 2012 GWS mbH
What to find out?
Question: What labor force do we need for economic activities related to the increasing share of renewable energy (heat & power)? Number of jobs in RE industry and its upstream industry =
gross employment
Question: What is the overall balance of positive and negative economic effects of the increasing share of renewable energy (scenario analysis) Change in economy wide employment = net employment
Introduction
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gws 2012 GWS mbH
Comprehensive impact study – account for ALL effects
Time horizon: 2010 - 2030
Introduction Increasing RES
Prices
International Trade
Investment, Operation and Maintenance
Exports/Imports
net effects
-
-
„Substitution“ „Budget“
positive effects
– neg. effects Non RES
RES - +
+
+ +
negative in/direct effects: e.g. investment in conventional sector
induced effect: price effect (on consumption)
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gws 2012 GWS mbH
Gross employment in 2011
Results: gross employment
Gross em
ployment
Figures for 2010 and 2011 are provisional estimate; deviations in totals are due to rounding; Source: O’Sullivan/Edler/Nieder/Rüther/Lehr/Peter: "Bruttobeschäftigung durch erneuerbare Energien im Jahr 20011 – eine erste Abschätzung". as at: March 2012; interim report of research project „Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt“; image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit
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gws 2012 GWS mbH
Regional results Further resultus
43270
68850
14020
48050
12080
53710
6760
24400
21050
12380
19450
20800
2250
14340
4050
=
6490
RE-jobs per 1000 jobs in total
371,950
Geo-thermal
Biomass
Solarenergy
Wind energy
Hydropower
Total grossemployment
4.5 - 7.57.6 - 12.712.8 - 26.5
Regional significance gross employment is particularly relevant in northern and eastern parts of Germany
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Socio-economic survey results – the structure of employment
Structure of employment in the interviewed RE industry
>< average? Total RES PV Wind Heat
pumps Biomass
female < av. 23.6% 30.6% 20.0% 13.8% 18.6%
total a) 99.9% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
young people in training/education (to reach ISCED 3b, 4) > av. 3.8% 3.2% 4.8% 3.0% 4.0%
temporary staffing (any ISCED) > av. 7.4% 7.3% 11.3% 7.5% 3.8%
staff w/o qualification (ISCED 2, 3a) < av. 4.1% 5.8% 0.9% 6.6% 3.1%
staff with qualification (ISCED 3b +) >av. 49.9% 47.0% 52.6% 65.8% 56.8% staff with college/university degree (ISCED 5, 6) > av. 32.1% 34.7% 27.1% 15.3% 29.7%
source: own calculations from 418 surveyed companies
a) does not necessarily add to 100
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gws 2012 GWS mbH
Years reference RE-Scenario + Export assumptions
max optimistic slow min Germany
Exports (bn € 2005) 2009 2020 - 41.3 32.9 19.9 7.1 2030 - 59.1 47.8 32.7 7.1
Employment
Gross employment (1000) 2009 340 2020 6 656 582 458 339 2030 5 699 610 500 298
Net employment (1000) 2009 2020 - 141.04 104.93 42.68 -16.64 2030 - 220.05 185.62 146.31 63.20
Net employment impacts
Export matters, but in the long run ….
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Conclusions – what did we find? Conclusions
Over 380,000 (2011) jobs in the German RE- and upstream industry
(about 1 % of total employment) Regional distribution shows where the “RE-jobs” are located and
which regions needs special attention if there are changes in one of the RE industries (Northern & Eastern parts of Germany)
Sectoral jobs also provide information on the qualification education & training
Net employment impact is positive in the long run even under a pessimistic export development. Nevertheless, future net employment depends very much on: future paths of fossil prices and exports reference and accelerated deployment scenario
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Extended slides are available at IEA-RETD: http://iea-retd.org/events For questions regarding the BMU job study contact: Philip Ulrich Heinrichstraße 30 D-49080 Osnabrück Fon: +49 (0)541-40933-200 Email: [email protected] www.gws-os.de/en
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Part III: EU financed study on RE jobs: EmployRES -
Employment impact of RES in the EU (Fh ISI)
RE policy RET deployment employment
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The Impact of Renewable Energy Policy on Economic Growth and Employment in the European Union - Summary of the EmployRES study
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◄ December 2008 agreement on Renewable Energy Directive by the European Parliament and the European Council
◄ Ambitious targets for each Member State 20% share of RE in Europe's final energy consumption by 2020. Each country had to elaborate a national RE action plan how to reach this target
Individual targets and policies!
Differing policy costs!
What are the economic and employment benefits of RES use ?
Employ-RES study: duration of 3 years, 6 European partners involved, combination of 4 models, huge data set, time horizon up to 2030
Background of the study
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◄ Aims of the Employ-RES study:
◄ To present an analysis of the RE policy effects on RET deployment and on employment & economic growth per RES sector, per economic sector and per country
◄ To improve understanding of gross and net employment impacts of (an accelerated diffusion of) renewables energy sources
◄ To ensure high quality results and show consistent results: two types of macro models were applied
◄ Review of results by scientists, stakeholder workshop
◄ Coordination by Fraunhofer ISI, partners involved:
SEURECO
Background of the study
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◄ Expectations: To get a thorough and consistent assessment of RE policy impact on employment and economic growth (RE policy RET deployment employment)
◄ Challenges: To get reliable data and depict national structures (EU27) in the model, build interfaces between the 5 models
◄ Results :
◄ RET deployment up to 2030 as a result of different RE policies
◄ Employment in the RE- and upstream industry in 2005, 2020 and 2030
◄ Positive impact of RET deployment on economy-wide employment up to 2030
Expectations, challenges and results
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◄ In general, (slightly) positive economy-wide impact in most EU countries, only in a few countries negative impacts (price effect, displaced investment)
◄ RE sectoral employment is significant, but not in all countries.
◄ Sectoral employment is in all countries larger than net employment impacts
◄ O&M and fuel supply (biomass) provide permanent employment
◄ Employment effects depend on industry structures of the respective country:
◄ large domestic fossil fuel industry negative effect
◄ large domestic biomass / fuel supply positive effect
◄ strong domestic manufacturing sector (machinery) positive effect
◄ low conventional energy prices (e.g. power) negative effect
◄ export is important for jobs in the manufacturing sector +/-
Main messages
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Methodology: Overview of modelling steps (simplified)
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Methodology: Overview of modelling steps (detailed)
Input/OutputModel Data source
GREEN-X database
Past & present econ. impacts
Techno-econ. coefficients
Historic RES development (capacity & cost)
AMADEUS
Stakeholder consultation
Desk research MULTIREG
Energy framework conditions
Macroeconomic impacts of RES
Economic impulses of RES perspectives
RES Scenarios (EU and global)
ASTRANEMESIS
ISI Lead Market Database
Export scenarios
1
2
3
4
1 Number of corresponding phase/chapter
WorldRESGREEN-X
Input/OutputModel Data source
GREEN-X database
Past & present econ. impacts
Techno-econ. coefficients
Historic RES development (capacity & cost)
AMADEUS
Stakeholder consultation
Desk research MULTIREG
Energy framework conditions
Macroeconomic impacts of RES
Economic impulses of RES perspectives
RES Scenarios (EU and global)
ASTRANEMESIS ASTRANEMESIS
ISI Lead Market Database
Export scenarios
1
2
3
4
1 Number of corresponding phase/chapter
WorldRESGREEN-X WorldRESGREEN-X
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Methodology: Overview of relevant effects
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Results: Future gross effects
Gross employment under No-Policy, BAU-ME and ADP-ME by cost types for EU 27
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Future gross effects
Increase of gross employment between scenario ADP-ME and No-Policy, 2020, in absolute figures and relative to total employment (2007)
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
2.00%
AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU27
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
empl
oyee
s
relative to total current employment, % in absolute figures
Results: Future gross effects
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Difference in cross employment between ADP-ME and ADP-OE by technolgies, 2020
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
country
empl
oyee
s
Electricity Biogas Electricity Biowaste Electricity Geothermal Electricity Hydro large scaleElectricity Hydro small scale Electricity Photovoltaics Electricity Solar thermal Electricity Solid biomass
Electricity Tide wave Electricity Wind offshore Electricity Wind onshore Heat Biogas gridHeat Biowaste grid Heat Geothermal grid Heat Heat pumps Heat Solar thermal and hot water
Heat Solid biomass grid Heat Solid biomass non grid Transport Advanced biofuels Transport Traditional biofuels
Results: Future gross effects – impact of exports (moderate and optimistic)
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Results: Future net employment in ADP-ME scenario by country, 2020
Source: ASTRA calculations
change in employment: ADP-ME vs no policy, 2020
-50
0
50
100
150
200
AT B+L BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
chan
ge in
em
ploy
men
t in
1.00
0
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Results: Macro-model comparison Astra - NEMESIS: Employment by country in ADP-ME scenario
Source: ASTRA and NEMESIS calculations
Employment change due to RES policy - ADP in 2020 Range given for the results of NEMESIS and ASTRA model
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
+Lux
embu
rg
Cze
ch-R
epub
lic
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Eur
ope
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Rom
ania
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden
Uni
ted-
Kin
gdom
Cha
nge
[%]
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Summary of results: Employment effects of RES policies
396
115201
417
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
Net employmentchange ASTRA
compared to "nopolicy"
Net employmentchange NEMESIScompared to "no
policy"
Net
em
ploy
men
t due
to R
ES
pol
icy
[thou
sand
] . BAU MEADP ME
2310
567
1,090
2830
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
Total grossemployment of RES
sector
Gross employmentof RES sector
compared to "nopolicy"
Gro
ss e
mpl
oym
ent o
f RES
sec
tor i
n 20
20 [t
hous
and]
.
BAU MEADP ME
Gross impact Net impact
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Main messages:
Overall, net employment impact is positive but not in all countries
(exports, price effect, …)
Net employment is smaller than gross employment (EU wide) due to negative effects of displaced investment (hence jobs) in the conventional
energy sector (nuclear and fossil based) higher prices for electricity from RES consumption of other goods
decreases
Future net employment effects depend on assumption about fossil energy prices export (development of market shares) costs of conventional and RE technologies reference scenarios
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► Currently the strong investment impulses - based on installations in Europe and exports to the rest of the world - dominate the economic impact. However, permanent employment will be in biomass supply and O&M
► In order to maintain this positive development (of moderate policy costs, positive net effects) in the future, it is necessary to uphold and improve the competitive position of European RET manufacturers (export) and reduce the costs of renewable energies (e.g. power price) by exploiting the full learning potentials support policies need to be improved to stimulate the development of innovative technologies appropriately (competitiveness and price effect)
Main messages:
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Thank you for your attention
Dr. Barbara Breitschopf Competence Center Energy Policy and Energy Markets
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Breslauer Str. 48. 76139 Karlsruhe. Germany
Phone: +49 (0)721 6809 356 mailto:[email protected]
http://www.isi.fraunhofer.de