Presentation at Consumer Electronics Show - Jan 2009
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Transcript of Presentation at Consumer Electronics Show - Jan 2009
Page 1 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Trends in Mobile Devices & Mobile Media
Sandeep PannuTelecom PracticeThe Nielsen Company
January 9, 2009
Page 2 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company
Countries: 110
Revenues: $4.5 B
Clients: 21,000
Employees: 41,000
Page 3 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Demand Forecasting
Market Reception(Online Buzz)
Concept & PriceTesting
Nielsen’s Telecom Practice serves Operators and Mobile Device OEMs
• We provide a competitive understanding of, both, the consumer decision process, and device lifecycle.
Advertising Spend and Effectiveness
Attitudes & Behaviors
Retail Effectiveness
Purchase Decision(Market Share)
Usage(Voice & Media)
Page 4 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Our Global Clients include…
Page 5 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Trends in Mobile Devices
Page 6 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
2008 events shaped largely by North America players
• Apple certainly leads the industry with its vision of an integrated data experience – and has spurred other OEMs to rapidly replicate key elements of the Apple experience
• Google’s direct entry in Mobile OS is still to be judged by consumers (even as industry players are already lining up with it, or against it)
• Carriers have invested a lot of money in Q+T devices in expectations of higher usage fees; and the strategy is paying off
• We moved closer to all-IP mobile world that is starting to open up:
- open to applications (e.g. via open marketplaces)- open to content (e.g. via DRM free music)- open to networks (e.g. open to WiFi, VOIP networks like Skype)
Page 7 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
7
Although, Apple had only 2-3% market share in the US in each of the trailing 5 quarters…
Base: Q3 2006 (n=8,503), Q4 2006 (n=9,108), Q1 2007 (n=10,554), Q2 2007 (n=9,155), Q3 2007 (n=9,927), Q4 2007 (n=9,172), Q1 2008 (n=10,000), Q2 2008 (n=8,470), Q3 2008 (n=9,357)
Trended Recent Acquisition Market ShareAcquired Device in the Past 3 Months (n=9,357)
Q435. Who manufactures the wireless telephone/handset you currently use with your service?
34%
36% 36%
32%31%
29%
26%
23%
16% 15%
18% 19%
22%
11%
14%
20%
9% 9%
1% 2% 2% 2%3%
35%
17%
15%16% 17%
15%16%
18%
11%11%12%
9%
17%
11%
2%1% 2%
6%6%
1%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Motorola
LG
Samsung
Nokia
RIM BlackBerry
Apple
Note: Apple tracking began in Q3 2007.
Page 8 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
8
Manufacturer Recent Acquisition Market Share by Price Paid for DeviceAcquired and Selected Device in the Past 6 Months (n=13,964)
…23% of devices purchased in the last months for more than $200 were Apple
23%
13% 14%
22% 18%
8%
9%
4%
6%
14%
3%
6%
3%
1%
3%
10%
3%
23%
3%2%
1%
6%
5%Total
$201+
Motorola
LG
Samsung
Nokia
RIM BlackBerry
Palm
Sony Ericsson
HTC
Sanyo
Apple
Kyocera
UTStarcom/Audiovox
Other
Base: Free/Less than $1 (n=3,566), $1–$25 (n=1,330), $26–$60 (n=3,193), $61–$100 (n=1,935), $101–$200 (n=1,715), $201+ (n=992)
B485. How much did you actually pay for your current wireless telephone/handset after any trade-ins and/or rebates were subtracted from the list/retail price?
Page 9 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
57%
19%
12%8%6%5%
79%
65%
46%
30%
17%18%
86%85%
66%65%
39%35%
Text/SMSMobileInternet
SW/Appdownloads
Location/GPSFull TrackMusic
Video/MobileTV
All Subscribers
All Smartphone Users
All iPhone Users
As you know, Apple users consume more media than anyone else…significantly more
% Using Data ServicesQ3 2008
Page 10 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
…and spend upto $15 more per month on mobile data than the average user
($0.75)
$32.96$38.42
$6.09
$8.46$10.28
$27.42
$4.14
$1.88
($3.38)
$3.93
$5.01
$54.02
$80.43
All Subscribers iPhone Subscribers
Total other charges
Data extras
Voice extras
Total taxes & fees
Monthly voice plancharge (MRC)
Service credits
Average Billed Revenue Per Subscriber Component
All Lines, Q3 2008, National
Page 11 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
2008 events shaped largely by North America players
• Apple certainly leads the industry with its vision of an integrated data experience – and has spurred other OEMs to rapidly replicate key elements of the Apple experience
• Google’s direct entry in Mobile OS is still to be judged by consumers (even as industry players are already lining up with it, or against it)
• Carriers have invested a lot of money in Q+T devices in expectations of higher usage fees; and the strategy is paying off
• We moved closer to all-IP mobile world that is starting to open up:
- open to applications (e.g. via open marketplaces)- open to content (e.g. via DRM free music)- open to networks (e.g. open to WiFi, VOIP networks like Skype)
Page 12 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
US Mobile Advertising is ~ $1 billon every quarter…
Top 4 Carrier Ad Spend ($MM)
$8.7 $11.3 $21.1 $18.3 $14.2 $18.8
$37.8 $32.4$40.8
$29.5 $24.5 $29.9$5.4 $5.3
$8.4$7.3
$8.3$10.2
$21.4 $15.1
$23.2 $45.2$45.
$50.1
$260.1$252.1
$256.1$216.6 $236.7
$255.5
$333.3$316.2 $316.9
$328.6
$364.4$326.3
September, 2007 October, 2007 November, 2007 September, 2008 October, 2008 November, 2008
Mill
ion
s
TV
Internet
Radio
Newspaper
Magazine
Source Nielsen Mobile Advertising Insights
Note Top 4 Carriers include AT&T (formerly Cingular), Sprint, T-Mobile and Verizon
Note Carrier Spend – Direct, Wireless, National (TV, Print, Radio, Internet)
Page 13 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
90%
6%
81%70%
0%
71%
9%
94%
19%30% 29%
Verizon $293M
T-Mobile$105M
Sprint Nextel$135M
AT&T $294M
Total $828M
US Carrier Ad SpendTop 4 Carriers - All Classified Ads – National, Q3 2008
..and ~71% of this spend names or promotes specific branded devices
Source Nielsen Mobile Advertising Insights
Named or Promoted Device
No Device
Page 14 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Let’s examine some of the US top print ads in Q3 2008..
Page 15 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
AT&T Total 1. Samsung SGH-A737 (Green) $36.2M2. Samsung SGH-A737 (Orange) $34.4M3. Samsung SGH-A737 (Red) $24.4M4. Samsung SGH-A737 (Blue) $13.5M
5. BlackBerry 8310 (Curve) $11.3MOther $104.3MTotal $224.1M
Verizon Total1. Samsung SCH-U940 (Glyde) $26.6M
2. Samsung SCH-U740 (Alias) $23.9M
3. LG VX10000 (Voyager) $21.2M
4. Motorola MOTORIZR Z6c $18.1M
5. BlackBerry 8130 (Pearl) Pink $18.1M
Other $163.6M
Total $271.5M
Sprint Nextel Total1. Motorola iDEN i570 $17.1M
2. Samsung SPH-M800 (Instinct) $7.3M 3. Palm Centro (Pink) $6.3M 4. Palm Centro (Red) $5.7M 5. Palm Centro (Black) $5.3MOther $2.8MTotal $44.5M
Note 1: Highlighted + Bold = Top Model & New
Note 3: Bold only = New ModelNote 2: Highlighted only = Top Model
T-Mobile Total 1. BlackBerry 8120 (Pearl) $1.4M
2. BlackBerry 8320 (Curve) $1.2M
3. Nokia 3555 $1.1M
4. Samsung SGH-T729 (Blast) $0.9M
5. Samsung SGH-T639 $0.8M
Other $21.6M
Total $27.0M
Top Carrier Advertised ModelsTop 4 Carriers – All Ads with a Named Model – National, Q2 2008
Half of the top promoted devices by US Operators have Q or T or both
Source Nielson Mobile Advertising Insights
Page 16 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
As a result, 8 of the top 20 models sold in the US were Q or T or both
Top 20 Models purchased in Q2 2008
Motorola RAZR V3 series (V3, V3c, V3m, V3i, V3i DG, V3) 6.0%
RIM BlackBerry 8100 series (Pearl,8110, 8120, 8129) 2.7%
LG VX8350 2.6%
LG VX9100 (enV2)*** 2.5%
RIM BlackBerry 8300 series (Curve, 8310, 8320, 8330) 2.3%
Motorola MotoKRZR series (K1m, K1) 2.3%
LG VX8500 series (Chocolate, VX8500, VX8550) 1.9%
Apple iPhone 1.8%
Motorola W755*** 1.7%
Samsung SGH-A737/ SGH-A736 1.5%
Palm Centro 1.5%
Nokia 6555 1.4%
Motorola W385 1.4%
LG LX-260 (Rumor) 1.3%
Samsung SGH-i607 series (BlackJack) 1.2%
Samsung SCH-U340 series (Snap) 1.1%
Sony Ericsson W580 (W580, W580i Walkman) 1.1%
Motorola W370 1.1%
LG Voyager 1.0%
Nokia 6085 1.0%
Total 38%
Source Nielsen Mobile Device Insights
Page 17 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
17
The US penetration rate for Q/T devices has doubled over the past year
QWERTY/Touchscreen penetrationAll Subscribers, Q2 2007, Q2 2008, National
2% 3%
4%
8%
0%
1%
Q2 2007 Q2 2008
Touchscreen only
QWERTY only
Both QWERTY andTouchscreen
Source Nielsen Mobile Device Insights
6 %
12 %
Page 18 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
$37.10$46.37 $43.89 $46.00
$6.95
$5.36 $9.90 $6.78$9.98
$23.56 $23.46 $24.98
AllSubscribers
Both QWERTYand
Touchscreen
QWERTY only Touchscreenonly
Monthly ARPU Q2 2008, National
Source: Nielsen Customer Value Metrics (CVM), Q2 2008
Q/T phones give US operators an additional $20 in ARPU
Voice Charges
Other Charges
Data Charges
Page 19 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Purchased Blue Tooth Handset in last year
22%
23%
24%
25%
27%
28%
29%
21%
22%
24%
Albuquerque, NM
Bakersfield, CA
Spokane, WA
San Diego, CA
Seattle, WA
Fresno, CA
Sacramento, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Stockton, CA
San Francisco, CA
Blue tooth penetration in top US markets is 1 in 4 users
Q3, 2008; N=56,000
Page 20 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
2008 events shaped largely by North America players
• Apple certainly leads the industry with its vision of an integrated data experience – and has spurred other OEMs to rapidly replicate key elements of the Apple experience
• Google’s direct entry in Mobile OS is still to be judged by consumers (even as industry players are already lining up with it, or against it)
• Carriers have invested a lot of money in Q+T devices in expectations of higher usage fees; and the strategy is paying off
• We moved closer to all-IP mobile world that is starting to open up:
- open to applications (e.g. open marketplaces)- open to content (e.g. DRM free music)- open to networks (e.g. open to WiFi, VOIP networks like Skype)
Page 21 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
New “marketplaces” launched and more coming. They are not fully open but significantly more open than previously
Apple App store catalogue reached 10,000 titles within 6 months of launch
Android Market launched with 50 titles and is growing fast
RIM plans to open their own application market in March 2009
Page 22 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Quarter/Year of device purchase by Device Purchase Drivers
5%10%
3%
29%28%
22%
17%14%
19%
25%
14%
7%
10%14%
6%
7% 12%
11%20% 16%
11%
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Other
Brand/PreviousExperience
Ease of Use
Design/Style
Touchscreencapability
Mobile WiFicapability
Large, Easy-to-Read Display
Source: iphone reason purchased
Unweighted Sample Size = 463
Respondents Included = 1%, Filter Applied
Illustrative is number of folks who bought Apple because of open network access to WiFi
Page 23 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Trends & Opportunities in Mobile Media
Sandeep PannuTelecom PracticeThe Nielsen Company
Page 24 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
$1,931, 36% $2,134, 37%
$1,374, 25%
$1,394 25% $923, 17%
$906, 16%
$936, 17%
$1,034, 18%
$241, 4%
$308, 5%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008
Video
Mulitimediamessaging
Downloads
Internet
Text messaging
US Mobile Content Revenues, US$ millionsQ3 2007–Q3 2008, National
$5,407
$7,429
As you know, mobile media revenues continues to grow..
Page 25 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
...and starting to reach big numbers in the US
• 141M mobile media consumers
• 123M using text messaging
• 60M downloading content
• 11M watching mobile video
• 44M using mobile internet
Page 26 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
26
30.0
19.8 19.6
15.613.2 13.0 12.3
9.5 8.8 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.2 6.6 6.2 5.74.4
2.5 2.2 2.2
42.0
Por
tals
E-M
ail
Wea
ther
New
s &
Cur
rent
Eve
nts
Sea
rch
Ent
erta
inm
ent
Spo
rts
City
Gui
des/
Map
s
Mus
ic
Gam
es
Soc
ial N
etw
orki
ng
Tec
hnol
ogy/
Sci
ence
Bus
ines
s/F
inan
ceN
ews
Vid
eos/
Mov
ies
Foo
d/D
inin
g
Ban
king
/Onl
ine
Tra
ding
Sho
ppin
g/A
uctio
ns
Tra
vel/V
acat
ion
Aut
omot
ive
Hea
lth/F
itnes
s
Edu
catio
n/E
mpl
oym
ent
Mobile Internet Users (in millions) by Service TypeNov 2008, National
In 2008, it is worth noting that 8M people participated in social networking…that is a sizable number!
Source: Mobile Media Measurement – Mobile Internet Report
Page 27 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
95% 93% 91%
79% 79%72% 71%
67% 66% 64% 64%
52% 51% 51% 50% 49% 46% 46%42%
33% 32%
20%
144%
So
cia
l Ne
two
rkin
g
Ne
ws
& C
urr
en
t Eve
nts
En
tert
ain
me
nt
Bu
sin
ess
/Fin
an
ceN
ew
s
Ba
nki
ng
/On
line
Tra
din
g
Sh
op
pin
g/A
uct
ion
s
Mu
sic
Ga
me
s
Fo
od
/Din
ing
Se
arc
h
We
ath
er
Ed
uca
tion
/Em
plo
yme
nt
He
alth
/Fitn
ess
Tra
vel/V
aca
tion
Te
chn
olo
gy/
Sci
en
ce
E-M
ail
Au
tom
otiv
e
Sp
ort
s
Po
rta
ls
City
Gu
ide
s/M
ap
s
Re
al E
sta
te
Ad
ult
Vid
eo
s/M
ovi
es
… making social networking the pack leader in y-o-y audience growth
Source: Mobile Internet Report
Mobile Internet Audience Growth by Service TypeNov 2007 - Nov 2008, National
Mobile Social Networking audience up from 3.3M in
Q3-07 to 8M in Q3-08
Page 28 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
As expected, Facebook and MySpace.com were the leading sites
4,480
897
820
723
457
402
347
266
1,220
1,934
407
202
560
376
291
409
5,107Facebook
MySpace.com
Flickr
Photobucket
Digg
Classmates Online
MSN/Windows Live Spaces*
Friendster*Nov-08
Nov-07
Social Networking Mobile Internet AudienceMobile Internet Users Nov 2008, National
Page 29 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
iPhone was the most popular device among social networkers
5%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
13%
6%
7%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
13%
13%Apple iPhone
Motorola RAZR V3 series
RIM BlackBerry 8300 series Curve
RIM BlackBerry 8100 series Pearl
Motorola Q Series Moto Q
Samsung SGH-i607 series (BlackJack)
Palm Centro
LG VX8500 series Chocolate
RIM BlackBerry 8800 series
LG Voyager
Other
Online Social Networkers
All Subscribers
Top Devices Among Internet Social NetworkersData Users Q3 2008, National
Page 30 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
47%
61%
42%
66%
Subscription Mobile internet
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
How Viewers Accessed Mobile VideoQ3 2008 US Mobile Video Viewers (n=2,672)
4M of 10M mobile video users in Q3 2008 were watching
subscription video
“I paid a subscription fee to access Mobile
TV or video clips”
“I accessed and viewed Mobile TV or video clips directly from the internet on
my cell phone”*
“I downloaded and stored video clips
from a computer or from other sources
onto my cell phone”*
“I viewed video clips using an application
(for example: MyWaves, VSnax)”*
Access to Video is happening via subscription model and via Mobile Internet, with the latter growing lead
Page 31 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Driven largely by iPhone usage behaviour
4%
3%
2%2%
4%
12%
3%
4%
2%
1%
Apple iPhone Motorola Razr V3 Series Samsung Instinct Motorola Q Series LG Voyager series
Subscription Viewing Non-Subscription Viewing
Subscription Vs. Non-Subscription ViewingQ3 2008 US Mobile Video Viewers (n=2,672)
Page 32 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
This opens up video beyond TV networks
1. NBC (29%)
2. ESPN (23%)
3. VH1 (22%)
4. The Weather Channel (22%)
5. MTV (21%)
6. FOX (17%)
7. ABC News (17%)
8. CBS (17%)
9. Comedy Central (16%)
10. ABC (16%)
1. The Weather Channel (32.4%)
2. FOX (31.7%)
3. MTV (31.5%)
4. Comedy Central (28.9%)
5. YouTube (28.8%)
6. ABC (27.5%)
7. CBS (27.1%)
8. NBC (26.6%)
9. ESPN (26.5%)
10. E! Entertainment (23.2%)
Top 10 Mobile Video Channel: Subscription Users
Q2 2008 US Mobile Video Viewers (n=719)
Top 10 Mobile Video Channels: All Users
Q3 2008 US Mobile Video Viewers (n=2,672)
Page 33 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
1. News
2. Weather
3. Sports
4. Music
5. Comedy
6. User-generated video content
7. Drama
8. Cinema-released movies
9. Content made for Mobile TV
10. Educational
1. Comedy
2. Weather
3. Music
4. Sports
5. News and Finance
6. Movie Trailers
7. Entertainment News
8. User-generated video content
9. Reality TV
10. Animated
Top 10 Content Categories for Mobile Video: Subscription Users
Q2 2008 US Mobile Video Viewers (n=1,141)
Top 10 Content Categories for Mobile Video: All Users
Q3 2008 US Mobile Video Viewers (n=2,672)
And shifts video from information-centric to entertainment
Page 34 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
As you know – mobile skews younger demographic
8% 11%
9%12%
18%
23%
38%
39%
28%14%
All Subscribers Advanced Data Users
Ages 55+
Ages 35-54
Ages 25-34
Ages 18-24
Ages 13-17
Demographics – AgeQ3 2008
Page 35 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Mobile WebsiteTeen Audience
Size (000's)
% of website audience that
are teensI ndex
All Mobile Websites 6,588 15% 100Yahoo! Mail 2,244 15% 101MSN Hotmail 1,406 19% 130iTunes 1,401 31% 217Google Search 1,205 11% 79Gmail 947 10% 68ESPN 935 12% 84AOL Email 928 16% 107Facebook 844 17% 116YouTube 834 33% 224MTV Networks Music 755 43% 298NEOPETS 697 75% 517Weather Channel 673 8% 53MySpace.com 671 14% 98Google Maps 618 9% 62Adult Swim 605 56% 387Yahoo! Sports 605 20% 137Movies.com 538 48% 329Dictionary.com 534 41% 286Yahoo! Games 526 17% 117GameTap 520 47% 324
Teens makeup a large % of social networking users
Page 36 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Let’s look at the Teens mobile data usage behavior. It’s insane!
788
340247
12543
3,099
593
286 233118
1,956
473 548
283
Age 0-12 Age 13-17 Age 18-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64
All Subscribers
iPhone Owners
Average Number of Text Messages by Age Q3 2008, National
Page 37 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Well, Mobile keep getting younger!
Tween Mobile Penetration by Age US Tween Mobile Users, Q2 2008 (n=709)
21% 20%
12%
45%
Age 8-10 Age 11-12
Mobile tween
Mobile borrower
Average age kids start using a
borrowed cell phone= 8.6
33%
65%
Page 38 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
46%
37%
16%
9%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2-way text messages
Pre-installed games
Ringtone downloads
Game downloads
Full-track musicdownloads
Full-track musicdownloads
Wireless internet
Uploads
Video / mobile TV
Tween Data Application UsageQ2 2008
Teens drive mobile media – Tweens will be no different, only better when they grow up
78%
48%
40%
29%
25%
24%
19%
14%
2-way textmessages
Pre-installedgames
Ringtonedownloads
Wirelessinternet
Gamedownloads
Uploads
Full-track musicdownloads
Video / mobileTV
Teen Data Application UsageQ2 2008
Page 39 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Finally, what about the impact of economy on mobile…
Page 40 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
• It is hard to be insightful when so much has been said about this by a lot of smart people
My 2 cents -
• A poor economy generally does not change the long-term outcomes or trends, merely the timing – the trends we talked about today are worth betting on, but plan your timing carefully
• A poor economy also tends to accelerate the separation between winners and losers – and we are seeing that already
Page 41 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Trends in Mobile Devices & Mobile Media
Sandeep PannuTelecom PracticeThe Nielsen Company
January 9, 2009