Present situation of monitoring, prediction and...
Transcript of Present situation of monitoring, prediction and...
The 6th Joint Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research
Present situation of monitoring, prediction and information for volcanic disaster mitigation in Japan
Koji Aizawa
Division of VolcanologyDepartment of Seismology and VolcanologyJapan Meteorological Agency JMA
Today’s Contents
Overview of Volcanic Disaster mitigation Operated by JMAExample of Recent Response for Volcanic Disaster by JMA and Local Authorities
JMA
Active Volcanoes in JapanDefinition of ACTIVE volcanoes :
Volcanoes that erupted in recent 10,000 years orhave vigorous fumaroles
TOTAL: 108 volcanoes
JMA
Volcanic eruption of last 10 years in JapanYear 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Meakan-Dake ▲ ▲ ▲
Tokachi-Dake ▲
Usuzan ▲ ▲
Hokkaido Komagatake ▲ ▲ ▲
Akita Yakeyama ▲
Asamayama ▲ ▲
Miyakejima ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Izu-Torishima ▲
Iwo-jima ▲ ▲
Fukutoku-oka-no-ba ▲
Kuju-san ▲
Asosan ▲ ▲ ▲
Sakurajima ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Satsuma-Iwo-jima ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Suwanose-jima ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Moyoro-Dake ▲
▲ eruption occurred
JMA
Active Volcanoes in Japanand Volcano Observations and Information Centers (VOICs)
N32°
N28°
N24°
Beyonesu RocksSumisujimaIzu-Torishima
Nishinoshima
Kaitoku SeamountFunka Asane
IojimaKita-FukutokutaiFukutoku-Okanoba
Minami-Hiyoshi Seamount
E140° E144°
SashiusudakeOdamoisanOshima-Oshima
MoyorodakeChirippusan
Etorofu-YakeyamaBerutarubesan
Etorofu-Atosanupuri
ChachadakeRaususan
Tomariyama
Shiretoko-Iozan
Rausudake
Atosanupuri
Mashu
Meakandake
Taisetsuzan
Maruyama
Tokachidake
Eniwadake
UsuzanHokkaido-Komagatake
TarumaesanEsanKuttaraOsorezan
Iwakisan
Towada
Hakkodasan
HachimantaiIwatesan
Akita-Yakeyama
KurikomayamaNaruko
Zaozan
Adatarayama
Chokaisan
Nasudake
Nikko-ShiranesanAkagisanHarunasan
FujisanHakoneyama
MiyakejimaIzu-Oshima
Izu-Tobu Volcanoes
Niijima
KozushimaHachijojima
Aogashima
MidagaharaYakedake
NorikuradakeHakusan
Ontakesan
Bandaisan
Hiuchigatake
Tsurumidakeand Garandake
Kujusan
Unzendake
AsosanKirishimayama
Sakurajima
KaimondakeSatuma-Iojima
Kuchinoerabujima
Nakanoshima
Suwanosejima
Kusatsu-Shiranesan
Asamayama
Azumayama
Nansei Islands
Submarine Volcano NNE of Iriomotejima
Io-Torishima
Fukuoka VOIC
Tokyo VOIC
Sendai VOIC
Sapporo VOIC
Myokosan
Niigata-Yakeyama
Sapporo VOIC
RuruidakeRishirizan
YoteisanNiseko
HijioriNumazawa
Takaharayama
Akandanayama
Yokodake Toshima
Mikurajima
Sofugan
Kaikata Seamount
Nikko Seamount
SanbesanAbu Volcanoes
Yufudake
Fukue VolcanoesYonemaru and Sumiyoshiike
Wakamiko
Ikeda and Yamagawa
Kuchinoshima
Sendai VOIC
Tokyo VOIC
Fukuoka VOIC
Akita-Komagatake
Izu-Ogasawara Islands
Area of responsibility
26 volcanoes written with red letters are continuously monitored by JMA.
Disaster Prevention Authorities,Mass Media
VOIC
Meteorological Observatories
Regular survey of volcanoesEmergency observation of volcanoes
Quick look analysis and watch of dataIssuance of Volcano Information
24 hours Watch
VOICGeneral Public
Real-time telemeter
Mobile Observation Team
Volcanic Regular Bulletin
Volcano Information
Diagnosis of Volcanic Activity
Detailed Analysis of・ Seismic and Geodetic data・ Volcanic fumes activity
Data Analysis
Dispatch ofMobile ObservationTeam
Collaborative work with researchers
Tiltmeter
GPS InfrasonicMicrophone
High-sensitive Visual Camera
Seismometer
Volcano Information and
Volcano Information
Volcanic AlertVolcanic Alert is issued when volcanic activities are extremely intensified and urgent countermeasures to prevent/mitigate damage to human lives are required.
Volcanic Advisory is issued when unusual volcanic phenomena are observed and preparation for disaster prevention/mitigation is required.
Volcanic Advisory
VolcanicObservation Report
Volcanic Observation Report is issued as supplemental information to Volcanic Alert and/or Volcanic Advisory.
Bulletin of Volcanoes
Volcanic Regular Bulletin (Monthly)
Monthly Report on Earthquake and Volcanoes in Japan
Weekly Report on Earthquake and Volcanoes in Japan
JMA
Volcanic Activity Levels
Volcanic Activity Levels by JMA
5 VERY LARGE ERUPTION
4 LARGE-MIDDLE ERUPTION
3 SMALL ERUPTION, CAUTION
2 ACTIVE
1 CALM
0 DORMANT
ALER
TA
DV
.
Volcanic O
bservation Report
Dessimination of Volcano Information
Volcano Information
Coordinating Committee of Prediction of Volcanic Eruption
1974~Members :Volcanologists and public offices
UniversitiesResearch Institutes(NIED, GSJ, PWRI)Geological Survey InstituteMinistry of Land, Infrast-
ructure and TransportCabinet OfficeMinistry of EducationJapan Coast GuardJapan Meteorological Agency
(Secretariat)
Eruption of Asama volcano in 2004
Distribution of continuous observation points at Asama by JMA as of March 2006
■: Seismometer ◆: Infrasonic microphone, ◎: Seismic intensity meter☆: Tiltmeter●: GPS ★: Visual camera.
JMA
Level Volcanic activity Eruption
5
Very large eruption or possibilityPyroclastic flow and/or lava flow
reach to distant area from the mountain.
Pyroclastic flow and/or lava flow reach to the town distant from the mountain.
4 Large eruption or possibilityBig explosion affects the town.
Volcanic bombs reach to the town (more than 3km distant from the crater).
Small pyroclastic flow, air shock affects the houses in the town.
3
Explosive eruption at the summit crater or possibility
Explosion occurs. orPrecursor of eruption e.g.Large flux of volcanic gasSeismic swarmGlowing etc.
Explosive eruption.Volcanic bombs reach to the mountain slope (within
3km distant from the crater)Very small pyroclastic flow
2
ActiveVolcano is rather active. e.g.,
Volcanic gas increasesVolcanic earthquakes
Very small eruption might occur occasionally.
1CalmActivity of volcanic quakes,
smokes and others is low. Low possibility of eruption
0 Dormant No possibility of eruption
The restriction rule of the climbing mountain according to the level
The rule for off-limits of Asama
Level 0 : No restrictionLevel 1 : Off-limits within 500m from the crater.Level 2 : Off-limits within about 2 km from the crater.Level 3 : Off-limits within 4 km from the crater.
JMA
MLIT(2004)
Volcanic glow before eruption
The photo was taken on 7 August 2004 from Karuizawa Weather Station about 8km south of the vent.Volcanic glow was observed only at night by highly sensitive video camera from 25 July 2004 about 1 month before the eruption.
JMA
Eruption at 20:02 on 1 September 2004.
• Upper left: Right after the eruption, light of plume was seen through the clouds.
• Upper right: After that, volcanic bombs scattered as far as 2km from the vent.
• Lower: An example of photo taken in fine weather. Red dotted line shows the area where volcanic bombs scattered on 1 September 2004.
0
100
200
300
2003/10/1 2003/12/1 2004/2/1 2004/4/2 2004/6/3 2004/8/3 2004/10/4 2004/12/4
012345
2003/10/1 2003/12/1 2004/2/1 2004/4/2 2004/6/3 2004/8/3 2004/10/4 2004/12/4
Eruption in 2004
Volcanic Activity Level
Volcanic quakes Eruptions
01020304050
2004/8/31 0:00 2004/9/1 0:00 2004/9/2 0:00 2004/9/3 0:00
Hourly number of quakes EXP.
LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3
Observation Report
The local governments forbade entering the area within 4km from the active crater!
Precursor of eruption at AsamaTilt change and B type earthquakes before several to 30 hours
22 23 24 25 September 2004
Explosions Precursors Predicted
Sep. 1 ○ △Sep. 23 ○ ×Sep. 29 ○ ○Oct. 10 × ×Nov. 14 ○ ○
No Explosion
Oct. 6 ○ -Feb. 21-22 ○ -
JMA
Ground deformation and volcano information
9月27日 9月28日 9月29日 9月30日
9月27日 9月28日 9月29日 9月30日
Hourly frequencies of BH type volcanic earthquakes
S-up,W-up0.2μrad
Eruption
Volcano information
Volcano information
On 29 September
At 00:43 volcano info.
At 08:15 volcano info.
At 12:17 eruption
JMA
SummaryThere are difficulties to exactlypredict volcanic eruption on presenttechnical level.
But, at volcano where monitoring system is operating, some eruptions rarely occur completely without precursors, so we can issue Volcano information before eruption in some case.
For volcanic disaster mitigation, it is important to operate volcanic monitoring system and issue adequate information to the public. JMA
ありがとうございました。
Thank you!
Official mascots of JMA
“Hare-run”