Present Situation of Ethanol Use in Brazil - Fapesp · Present Situation of Ethanol Use in Brazil...
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ESCOLA POLITÉCNICA DA UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO
Outline
Present Situation of Ethanol
Use in Brazil
Francisco E. B. Nigro
Professor
São Paulo: October 4th, 2012
ESCOLA POLITÉCNICA DA UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO
Energy Demand by Light Vehicles in Brazil
Ethanol Participation as a Spark-ignition Fuel
Challenges to Achieve the Biofuels Potential for Curbing CO2
Emissions.
Milestones of Biofuel Use in Brazil
Relative Fuel Consumption of Biofuels in Brazil
Historical Evolution of Neat Ethanol Emgines
Exhaust Emissions of Flex-fuel Vehicles
Fuel Consumption of Flex-fuel Vehicles
CO2 Emissions – International Comparison
Final Remarks
Outline
ESCOLA POLITÉCNICA DA UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO
Energy Demand by Light Vehicles in Brazil
• Brazil does not allow the use of diesel in automobiles.
• Since the late 1970´s, anhydrous ethanol is blended with gasoline in
concentrations that varied in the period from 18% to 25%.
• CNG represents circa 5% of total energy consumption by vehicles with
spark-ignition engines
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Energy Demand by Light-duty Vehicles in Brazil
• Using the reference economic growth scenario defined for the
Brazilian Energy Plan, one can estimate the future energy demand by
spark-ignition engines.
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• The historical evolution of the Brazilian new vehicles fleet, and the
derived fuel consumption participation are shown in the figure, exposing
the different phases of the Brazilian ethanol program.
• Because of dominance of new flex-fuel vehicles, future ethanol
participation is modeled according to the fraction of the flex fleet using
ethanol
Ethanol Participation as a Spark-ignition Fuel in BR
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Biofuels for Curbing CO2 Emissions from Transport
• The green scenario applied in the extrapolation for 2020
presumes that the we will be using B10 in all diesel fuel sold in
the State, that 88% of the new autos sold will be flex-fuel and
that hydrous ethanol will be priced competitive enough with
gasoline to allow flex-fuel vehicles fleet to run 90% of time on
ethanol.
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• The figure shows that, in the last three and half years, the relative price
of hydrous ethanol to gasohol has varied significantly, leading to a
reduction of the fraction of the flex-fuel vehicles that runs on ethanol: this
fraction changed from more than 90% to around 50%, while the ethanol
price relative to gasohol changed from 50% to 70%, after overshooting to
more than 80%. One should observe the consumers behavior and the
significant hysteresis on the price to demand elasticity curves.
Challenges to Achieve Biofuels 2020 Potential
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• Although the energy price of ethanol was much lower than the one for
gasohol for 8 years since the launching of flex-fuel vehicles, more recently
the prices are coming close to an equilibrium point.
• In order to control inflation, the Federal Government is avoiding any price
increase of traditional fuels, what has hindered the profitability of biofuels.
Challenges to Achieve Biofuels 2020 Potential
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Milestones of Biofuel Use in Brazil
1920 – Experiments in Fueling Vehicles with Ethanol
1940 – Widespread Use of Ethanol Blended with Gasoline during
World War II
1973 – First International Shock on Oil Price
1975 – Brazil’s Proálcool Program
1978 – CATs : Technological Support Centers for Engine
Conversion Shops
1979 – Series Production of Neat Ethanol Vehicle
1980 – OVEG Program
1985 – Neat Ethanol Vehicles reach 94% of Market Share
1989 – Ethanol Supply Problems & Low Oil Prices caused steep
Drop in Demand of Ethanol Vehicles
2003 – Series Production of Flex Fuel Vehicles
2005 – Brazil’s Biodiesel Program
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Relative Fuel Consumption of Brazilian Autos
Nigro F.& Szwarc A. – “O etanol como combustível” from the book “Etanol
e Bioeletricidade”- UNICA -2010
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Historical Evolution of Neat Ethanol Engines
• 1978 – Engine Conversion Shops
• Increase in compression ratio (7,5:1 → 11:1)
• Mixture leaner than gasoline at full load → to maintain same torque and
power
• Minimum consumption at partial load (lean mixture)
• Ignition timing optimized for ethanol
• Heating of the intake air to improve distribution
• Reduce energy consumption at full load by 25% (compression ratio → 7%; lean
mixture 15%; heating → 2%) and 20% for vehicles on field tests.
• 1983 – Neat Ethanol Vehicles from Auto-makers
• Increase in compression ratio (8,5:1 → 12:1)
• Use the torque gain to change transmission ratio
• Lean mixture at partial load
• Corrosion protection and materials compatibility
• Heating of the intake air to improve distribution
• Energy consumption of vehicles on chassis-dyno 16% lower than gasoline
models (compression ratio → 6%, leaner mixture → 7%, use of latent heat → 1%)
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Historical Evolution of Neat Ethanol Engines
• 1997 Proconve – Vehicle Emission Control Program phase L-3 implied use of
3-way catalyst (λ = 1)
• Increase in compression ratio (10:1 → 13:1)
• Electronic feedback control of injected fuel and mapped ignition
•Torque gain circa 6% used as performance bonus
• Heating of the intake air to improve drivability
• From 1997 to 2004, energy consumption of ethanol vehicles on field tests
was 4% lower than gasoline models, mainly due to compression ratio
differences.
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Exhaust Emissions of Gasohol X Ethanol Autos
Average data on new sold cars after Cetesb ( Relatório Qualidade do Ar – 2007)
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Evolution of Fuel Consumption of FFVs
Data from “Reports on the Production Emission Values”- error bars refer to 95% confidence
interval for the mean value. Production conformity requires testing of at least 0.2% of the vehicles.
Nigro F.& Szwarc A. – “O etanol como combustível” from the book “Etanol e Bioeletricidade”-
UNICA -2010
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Evolution of Fuel Consumption of FFVs
Data from “Reports on the Production Emission Values”- error bars refer to 95% confidence
interval for the mean value. Production conformity requires testing of at least 0.2% of the vehicles.
Nigro F.& Szwarc A. – “O etanol como combustível” from the book “Etanol e Bioeletricidade”-
UNICA -2010
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Fuel Consumption of Flex-fuel Vehicles
• Although some models of the sub-compact class of vehicles were
consuming 10% more ethanol than gasohol on the FTP-75 urban cycle,
on average the energy consumption with ethanol was circa 1% higher
than with gasohol,.
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• For the same sub-compact class of vehicle, the test results within the
PBEV - Brazilian Program for Labeling Vehicles show an average
ethanol consumption of circa 3% higher than gasohol on the highway
cycle
•.One should observe that some of the models are consuming up to
10% more ethanol
Fuel Consumption of Flex-fuel Vehicles
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Energy Consumption by Flex-fuel Vehicles
PBEV data show that flex-
fuel vehicles have , in
general, a lower efficiency
when operating with
ethanol compared to
gasohol.
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CO2 Emissions – International Comparison
“Global Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG Emissions Standards” divulgado pelo ICCT –
The International Council on Clean Transportation – agosto/2011
New public policy will put more pressure on ethanol
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Challenges to Accomplish the Estimated
Participation of Biofuels
Although the use of gasohol (20% to 25% anhydrous
ethanol) is mandatory, the amount of hydrous ethanol
actually used in flex-fuel vehicles depends almost
exclusively on price competition with gasohol.
In general, the new flex-fuel vehicles use ethanol less
efficiently than gasohol.
The introduction of a public policy to reduce fuel
consumption, probably will increase the difference in
efficiency between gasohol and ethanol, because the
vehicles are developed globally to use gasohol.
It is of fundamental importance to increase the knowledge
of engine research and design to make good use of
ethanol properties
Final Remarks