Preparing for the future - ESPON...Line of thinking ESPON // Preparing for the future European...
Transcript of Preparing for the future - ESPON...Line of thinking ESPON // Preparing for the future European...
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Preparing for the future
European Territorial Reference Framework
Kai Böhme, Spatial Foresight
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Line of thinking
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
What if ? So what ?
So what now ?Action ?
Sector trends(demographics, transport, economy,
environment …)
BIG structural policies(taxation, economic polices…)
Territorial dimension (territorial implications / impacts by
2030 and 2050…)
Interdependencies (reinforcements of different trends …)
2030 Policy implications (Which policy aims will be easier or
more difficult to reach…?)
2050 Policy implications (What needs to be different…)
2030 Policy pathways (Policy rekommendations …)
2050 Visions (Long term policy objectives …)
Impacts ?
Options ?
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Changing democratic decision making and governance
Changing
democratic
decision
making
Increasing
global tensions
Delegation to
supra-national
players
Thrive towards
more
democracy
Power diffusion
to networks
and coalitions
Increasing role
of perceptions
and believes
Aging society
Changing
demo-
graphic
pressure
Rising tensions
between Russia
and Europe
Re-
nationalisation
in Europe
Collaborative
governance
approaches
Diverging
understandings
of democracies
Global
demographic
growth Increasing
middle class at
global levelYoung and
ambitious Further
urbanisationRising social
inequalities
and gaps
Increasing
migratory
pressures
Deepening
environ-
mental
conver-
sation
Climate change
Scarcity of
water and food
Pollution of the
seas
Arctic as resource
and passage
Renewing
industries
and
innovation
Beyond GDP
Peak of
everything
Decoupling
growth & jobs
Slow growth
4th industrial
revolution
Internet of
things
Robotics
Big data
Natural
resources
important again
Increasing
public debts
Circular &
sharing
economy
Blue & green
growth and
clean tech
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What if … ?
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
Technological & industrial change
Global shifts
European territorial developments
European macro-economic policies
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Technological & industrial Trends
Seeds of change
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Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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4th Industrial Revolution
Automation
Artificial intelligence
…
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
Source: Joint Research Centre, 2016
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Global shifts
Seeds of change
5/22/2018
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Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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Chinese One Belt & One Road Initiative
PowerPoint template 16:98 5/22/2018
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Single Market will remain relevant?
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Network economies versus agglomeration economies
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Postcarbon energy sources?
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European territorial development trends
Seeds of change
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Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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Regional Economic Forecast 2010-2030 (JRC, 2016)
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Live expectancy (2010)
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Stable with baseline migration: from 514 to 530 inh.
Ageing: %>64 years 26% to 39%
Demographic Growth 2010-2020 (ET2050,2012)
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Territorial Governance
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“Quality of Government Institute, University of Gotheborg (2018)
Quality of Government will improve significantly?
EQI 2010 EQI 2017
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European macro-economic policy trends
Seeds of change
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No funding policies
Big players for (not) achieving territorial cohesion
Not widely considered impacts and potential
EU example: Competition law and possible
territorial variation of employers’ contribution
National example: Territorial implications of flat rate
tax approaches
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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Key messages
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Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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Strategic challenges
External Sensitivity: Europe interdependency in relation to the
« Rest of the World »
Persistent Disparities: Among neighborhoods, cities, regions…
Increasing Externalities: Social, Economic and Environmental
cross-border spillovers
Political & Administrative Fragmentation: Growing « Cost of non-
Europe »
Governance Deficits: More complex multiscale/cross-
border/Public-Private PartnershipsESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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1) Fragmentation & disintegration
The economic geography of Europe is changing –
accompanied by an increasing fragmentation of
society
fragmentation as consequence
fragmentation as threat to integration
Policy state-of play: gap in policy solutions to
address growing economic and social disparities
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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2) Spatial interdependencies
Social and economic developments in one place
have major impacts on development perspectives
in other places
increasing negative and positive externalities
links as levers for development
Policy state-of play: deeper integration and positive
externalities (e.g. CEF, MRSs, Interreg), but lack of
coherence of initiativesESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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3) Mismatch of functionalities
Misalignment between geographical jurisdiction
for policy making and the geographies affected
policy decisions and actions reach beyond
administrative borders
from local to global level
Policy state-of play: multi-level governance and
functional areas as ‘unit’ for policy treatment
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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Discussion points
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How about ?
What are the most important trends from the
perspective of border-regions ?
How do you expect border regions to be different in
2030 or 2050 as compared to today?
ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica
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// Thank youKai Böhme, Spatial Foresight
This presentation will be made available at: www.espon.eu
Kai Böhme
Spatial Foresight
+352 691 32 97 49
www.spatialforesight.eu