Preparing for QE1 Preparing for QE1 Politics and Politics and Psychology Psychology

Richard C. JohnsonRichard C. Johnson

May 3, 2006May 3, 2006

OutlineOutline

Review of Key Politics and Review of Key Politics and Psychology ConceptsPsychology Concepts

Application of Concepts to 2002 Application of Concepts to 2002 QE1 on ANWR DrillingQE1 on ANWR Drilling

Questions and CommentsQuestions and Comments

Reminder – Reminder – Come in with a PlanCome in with a Plan The background materials will give you The background materials will give you

a good idea of what the topic will bea good idea of what the topic will be Worthwhile to ponder likely questionsWorthwhile to ponder likely questions

– For example, poll related question in For example, poll related question in psychology, interests/coalition question in psychology, interests/coalition question in politicspolitics

Use reading day to map key isuses out Use reading day to map key isuses out in your mind and on paperin your mind and on paper

Know Your Strengths Know Your Strengths and Structure Your and Structure Your TimeTime Richard’s suggestions (by no Richard’s suggestions (by no

means the only way to go)means the only way to go)– Start with statistics: often reveals Start with statistics: often reveals

key information for other sectionskey information for other sections– Move to politics and psych: if you Move to politics and psych: if you

put off until the end, you may run put off until the end, you may run out of time to answer completelyout of time to answer completely

– Spend the afternoon wracking your Spend the afternoon wracking your brain on economicsbrain on economics

Key Politics ConceptsKey Politics Concepts

The Four “I”sThe Four “I”s– InterestsInterests

Electoral, policy, moral?Electoral, policy, moral?

– InstitutionsInstitutions Senate rules (filibuster), bureaucracy, Senate rules (filibuster), bureaucracy,

cultureculture

– IdeologyIdeology Personal beliefs, partisanshipPersonal beliefs, partisanship

– InformationInformation Does complete information exist? Sources?Does complete information exist? Sources?

Other Things to Other Things to RememberRemember Role of leadershipRole of leadership Bureaucracy – turf wars, cultureBureaucracy – turf wars, culture ““Markets vs. Governments”Markets vs. Governments” Elections and Electoral PoliticsElections and Electoral Politics Types of Interest Groups – Types of Interest Groups –

strength and importancestrength and importance

Identify Key Interest Identify Key Interest Groups and CoalitionsGroups and Coalitions Background material should provide Background material should provide

sufficient info on issuesufficient info on issue Explain both sides of issueExplain both sides of issue Identify groups associated with pro and Identify groups associated with pro and

con, describe “winners” and “losers”con, describe “winners” and “losers” Note relative strengths of each group Note relative strengths of each group

and connection to your policymakerand connection to your policymaker Point out “strange bedfellows” and Point out “strange bedfellows” and

potential divisions in policymaker’s base potential divisions in policymaker’s base constituencyconstituency

Making a Making a RecommendationRecommendation Does the question ask for a policy Does the question ask for a policy

recommendation?recommendation? Be CLEAR and SPECIFICBe CLEAR and SPECIFIC Moderation is usually bestModeration is usually best Explain why recommendation is Explain why recommendation is

best from both a policy and best from both a policy and political perspectivepolitical perspective

Second Question – IR?Second Question – IR?

Again, key info from background Again, key info from background materialsmaterials

Realism vs. liberalismRealism vs. liberalism Multilateral vs. unilateralMultilateral vs. unilateral Role of domestic public opinion in Role of domestic public opinion in

international relationsinternational relations

Key Psychology Key Psychology ConceptsConcepts ““Power of the Situation”Power of the Situation” Prospect TheoryProspect Theory

– Valuing losses greater than gainsValuing losses greater than gains FramingFraming Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality Discounting (Myopia)Discounting (Myopia) Biases and HeuristicsBiases and Heuristics

– E.g. availability, representative, anchoringE.g. availability, representative, anchoring

More Psych ConceptsMore Psych Concepts

Status Quo BiasesStatus Quo Biases UncertaintyUncertainty ChoicesChoices Procedural JusticeProcedural Justice ““Groupthink” – social proofGroupthink” – social proof InfluenceInfluence

– Social diffusionSocial diffusion– Channel factorsChannel factors– Personal endorsements/credibility/authorityPersonal endorsements/credibility/authority

Polling Methodology Polling Methodology QuestionQuestion Q: What do poll results tell us Q: What do poll results tell us

about attitudes toward policy?about attitudes toward policy? A: How is the question framed?A: How is the question framed?

– Is there information in the question Is there information in the question that could affect the response?that could affect the response?

– Availability heuristic, choicesAvailability heuristic, choices A: Is the issue salient? Do people A: Is the issue salient? Do people

have strong opinions?have strong opinions?

Polling Methodology Polling Methodology QuestionQuestion A: What is the sample makeup? A: What is the sample makeup?

Are different polls using different Are different polls using different samples?samples?

How is issue framed?How is issue framed?– As a lossAs a loss– As a gainAs a gain– What is more effective?What is more effective?

Framing/Framing/Implementation Implementation QuestionQuestion Prospect theory – loss aversionProspect theory – loss aversion

– Weighting losses more than gainsWeighting losses more than gains– Framing as loss more effectiveFraming as loss more effective

Status quo biasStatus quo bias What is the anchor?What is the anchor?

Framing/Framing/Implementation Implementation QuestionQuestion Myopia/DiscountingMyopia/Discounting

– Do people really think long term or short Do people really think long term or short term? term?

– How can you influence people to make How can you influence people to make good decisions in the long term based on good decisions in the long term based on short term effects?short term effects?

Group Dynamics?Group Dynamics? Social DiffusionSocial Diffusion Channel FactorsChannel Factors Procedural JusticeProcedural Justice

2002 QE1 – Politics 2002 QE1 – Politics (#8)(#8) ““unusual coalitions”unusual coalitions”

– Pro: conservatives, GOP, Alaskans, Pro: conservatives, GOP, Alaskans, oil/gas companies, auto industry,oil/gas companies, auto industry,

– Role of Role of organized labororganized labor ““strange bedfellows” effectstrange bedfellows” effect Mixed depending on unionMixed depending on union

– Con: Dems, travel industry, enrivosCon: Dems, travel industry, enrivos

2002 QE1 – Politics 2002 QE1 – Politics (#8)(#8) ““Congressional elections”Congressional elections”

– DemocratsDemocrats Dems will link to Dems will link to special interestsspecial interests (Enron) (Enron) Focus on negative enviro impactFocus on negative enviro impact Labor split will hurt DemsLabor split will hurt Dems

– RepublicansRepublicans Focus on Focus on national securitynational security Gas pricesGas prices Job CreationJob Creation

– Diffused impact – stronger in some Diffused impact – stronger in some areas/races than othersareas/races than others

Current events could impact (MidEast, gas Current events could impact (MidEast, gas prices)prices)

2001 QE1 – Politics 2001 QE1 – Politics (#7)(#7) Mostly from background readingsMostly from background readings 1970s MidEast is not today’s MidEast1970s MidEast is not today’s MidEast

– US imports more diverse US imports more diverse (Russia/Canada)(Russia/Canada)

– Not as wealthy, need to maintain Not as wealthy, need to maintain domestic stabilitydomestic stability

Domestic opinionDomestic opinion in Arab states in Arab states More complex that Khalilzad implies More complex that Khalilzad implies

in transcriptin transcript

2002 QE1 – Psych (#5)2002 QE1 – Psych (#5)

Earlier NYT poll had more with Earlier NYT poll had more with knowledge of ANWR than later Gallup knowledge of ANWR than later Gallup pollpoll– Suggests weak interests or knowledgeSuggests weak interests or knowledge

NYT poll references “conservation”NYT poll references “conservation” NYT has more opposed to drillingNYT has more opposed to drilling Gallup, more neutral, shows support Gallup, more neutral, shows support

but also lack of knowledgebut also lack of knowledge Implies answer based on framing of Implies answer based on framing of

questionquestion ““Hard to tell exact attitudes from polls”Hard to tell exact attitudes from polls”

2002 QE1 – Psych (#5)2002 QE1 – Psych (#5)

Status quo biasStatus quo bias– Could emphasize that oil was Could emphasize that oil was

eventually going to be drilled (loss less eventually going to be drilled (loss less severe)severe)

– ““Cost” of not drilling is increased gas Cost” of not drilling is increased gas prices, market and political instabilityprices, market and political instability

– National security could worsenNational security could worsen Group dynamics – identify with Group dynamics – identify with

supportive Alaskanssupportive Alaskans

2002 QE1 – Psych (#6)2002 QE1 – Psych (#6)

People heavily discount futurePeople heavily discount future– Out-of-pocket costs of fuel efficient car Out-of-pocket costs of fuel efficient car

deter purchase in short run despite long deter purchase in short run despite long term benefitsterm benefits

Overcome this by:Overcome this by:– Using personal accountsUsing personal accounts– Social diffusion/group solidaritySocial diffusion/group solidarity– Make impact immediate (HOV lane?)Make impact immediate (HOV lane?)– Personal endorsements/authority figurePersonal endorsements/authority figure

Good luck!Good luck!

Questions?Questions?