Prepared by: Melanie Weaver, Waterfowl Program Lead Prepared for: Fish and Game Commission Meeting...
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Transcript of Prepared by: Melanie Weaver, Waterfowl Program Lead Prepared for: Fish and Game Commission Meeting...
Prepared by: Melanie Weaver, Waterfowl Program Lead
Prepared for: Fish and Game Commission Meeting August 5, 2015 Agenda Item 29
2015-2016 Status of Waterfowl, Habitats
and Hunting Recommendations
Brief background on “waterfowl”Brief summary of process of population
assessment and overarching approach to regulation setting
Current status of habitatsCurrent status of waterfowl populationsSpecific regulation recommendations
Presentation Overview
Primary wintering grounds in Pacific Flyway
“Waterfowl” not 1 species: 8 goose populations from Russia, Alaska, Canada, all
western states28 duck species from Canada, all western states
Stakeholders are not just CaliforniansA shared resource and managed at a Flyway scale
Alaska nativesOther statesFederal government
But individual states can adopt more restrictive regulations
Waterfowl in California
Populations Assessed Annually
USFWS, CWS, CA and many other statesMethodologies consistent and peer reviewedMonitor most species, but mallards “key stone”Longest running, most comprehensive wildlife survey
CA survey conducted since 1948, redesigned 1992USFWS and CWS conducted since 1955
Scope of the USFWS - CWS annual waterfowl survey
Regulation DevelopmentUSFWS sets “frameworks” annually based on current
year data and analysesToday DFW is recommending 2015-16 regulations
But for the 2016-17 regulationsFrameworks based on predicted populationsProduct of USFWS EISRequest to Notice in December, 2015FGC Adoption in April, 2016
“Frameworks”Maximum season length/bag limitsEarliest open and latest closing datesMigratory Bird Treaty Act limits hunting to 107 days
For ducks: annual breeding population surveysFor Pacific Flyway: AK, OR and CAAbout to add British Columbia and Washington
Harvest rates (from banded ducks)State of the art modeling framework
Harvest objective: sustainable harvest over the long term
For geese:Annual goose surveysAnnual harvest surveys
Frameworks Based On:
Modeling contextMallards drive the general duck regulations
Generally most abundant duck (population and harvest)Life history characteristics similar to most other species Separate harvest strategies for pintail, scaup, canvasback
Mid-continent mallards used prior to 2008Relied solely on USFWS – CWS survey (prairies)
In 2008, Western Mallard model adoptedUses western state data explicitlyHistorically, mallards more productive in west
Western Mallard Model
Local stocks (AK, CA-OR) rather than midcontinent
Harvest strategy more responsive to local conditions
Conservative model < maximum sustained yield updates annually Based on population growth rate and harvest rates Incorporates statistical uncertainty Implemented through 4 regulatory options:
Liberal, Moderate, Restrictive and Closed Varying season lengths and bag limits
Model prescribes an optimal regulatory option given objective
2015 Breeding Habitat Conditions
Waterfowl Status
Continental Ducks (all species): similar to last year (record high)Mallard & Green-wings = record highPintail, Canvasback, Scaup = no change
Pacific Flyway mallards:CA record low, unchanged in OR, down in AK
All but 2 goose populations over objectiveFederal frameworks for ducks are liberal
except Scaup
Current Status Goal
N CA Canada geese No survey 1,250Cackling Canada geese 311,100 250,000
Aleutian Canada geese 189,110 60,000Black Brant 157,700 162,000Pacific Whitefront geese 565,400 300,000Snow geese (Russia) 185,000 120,000Snow geese (Canada) 434,000 200,000
Ross’ geese 770,000 100,000
Goose Population Status
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Mallard Breeding Populations in CA, OR, and AK
Western Mallards
Alaska
California
Oregon
Mallards in CaliforniaBreeding Population EstimatesCompared to long term average
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Wintering Habitat ConditionsAnticipate reduced wetland & agriculture habitats
Size of reduction currently unknownTiming of water deliveries currently unknownWater availability differs within hunting zones
Hunting seasons = incentive for creating habitat>65% wetland habitat in CA is privately owned
Recommendations
Ducks – seasons and bag limits
100-105 day seasonsVaries by zone
7/day, no more than:7 mallards, 2 hens2 pintail2 canvasback (increase of 1/day)2 redheads3 scaup/86 days
Ducks – Season DatesNE Zone: Oct 10 – Jan 22 (105 days)
Scaup: Oct 10 – Dec 6 (58 days) & Dec 26 – Jan 22 (28 days)
BOS, SSJV, So CA Zones: Oct 24 – Jan 31 (100 days)Scaup: Nov 7 – Jan 31 (86 days)
CO River Zone: Oct 16 – Jan 24 (101 days)Scaup: Oct 31 – Jan 24 (86 days)Must match AZ regulations
Geese – seasons and bag limits100 – 107 day seasons
Varies by zone
Generally 25/day15 white geese10 dark geeseBrant 2/dayZone/Special Management Area regulations –
no changes
Increase Brant Season Length
Increase season length from 30 to 37 days3-yr midwinter survey average exceeds 135,000Flyway management plan allows increase in harvest
at this levelMay result in an additional 200 to 500 brant
harvestedRecommendation:
Northern Brant: Nov 8 – Dec 14Balance of State Brant: Nov 9 – Dec 15
Geese – DatesNE Zone
Regular SeasonDark geese: Oct 10 – Jan 17 (100 days)White geese: Nov 7 – Jan 17 (72 days) OR Oct 24 – Jan 3 (72 days)
Late SeasonWhite geese: Feb 7 – Mar 10 (33 days)Whitefronts: Mar 6 – Mar 10 (5 days)
25/day: 15 white and 10 dark geese, no more than 2 Large Canada geese
GeeseBalance of State Zone
Early Season Canada geeseOct 3 – Oct 7 (5 days)
Regular Season (all geese)Oct 24 – Jan 31(100 days)
Late SeasonWhitefronts & white geese: Feb 13 – Feb 17 (5
days)25/day: 15 white and 10 dark geese
GeeseOther zones
SSJV Zone: Oct 24 – Jan 31 (100 days)25/day: 15 white and 10 dark geese
So CA Zone: Oct 24 – Jan 31 (100 days)18/day: 15 white and 3 dark geese
CO River Zone: Oct 16 – Jan 24 (101days)10/day: up to 10 white and 4 dark geeseCA must match AZ adjacent zone
Lastly…
North Coast Special Management AreaRegular Season: Nov 8 – Jan 31 (85 days)Late Season: Feb 20 – Mar 10 (20 days)
Sac Valley Special Management AreaOct 24 – Dec 21 (59 days)
Imperial Valley Special Management AreaRegular Season: Nov 7 – Jan 31 (86 days)Late Season: Feb 6 – Feb 21 (16 days)
Youth Hunt DaysNE Zone 14 days prior, 2 daysAll other zones 7 days after, 2 days
Falconry – no change
Questions?
Contact: Melanie Weaver, Waterfowl Program [email protected](916) 445-3717
Photo by Chris Nicolai
NE Zone White Goose Late Season
32 day late season hunt started in 2013-14Private lands onlyModeled after North Coast and Imperial Special
Management areasEstablished as a tool to alleviate goose
depredationBasin refuges have minimal harvest of white
geese in October, hunting tool needs to be available in Jan for spring return
18 Type C areas 12 dominated by sagebrush or conifers4 dominated by riparian habitat2 dominated by seasonal wetlands
Hunting opportunity low for geese
NE ZoneType C Areas
Oct Nov Dec Jan0
20
40
60
80
100
120 Klamath Tule Lake
Average Harvest on KB Refuges2005-2014
Oct Nov Dec Jan0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00 Klamath Tule Lake
Average Survey on KB Refuges2005-2014
Oct Nov Dec Jan0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00 Siskiyou Modoc Lassen
NE County Average Harvest2005-2011
Local Mallard Concern?Breeding population 20% below last year and
34% below LTA – lowest estimate on record
Mallards banded in CA = high % of CA mallard harvest
Higher proportion of ducks shot early are local
Should limits be reduced?
Most hunters do not achieve daily bag limits
Mallard Bag Discussion Bag 1: range of 47% - 56% Bag 2: range of 23.2% – 23.4% Bag 3: range of 10% - 12% Bag 7: range of 2% - 3%
Conclusion: to protect mallards without reducing season length, bag limit would have to be reduced substantially
19901992
19942002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.20
CA Adult Male Harvest Rates
19901992
19942002
20042006
20082010
20122014
00.020.040.060.08
0.10.120.140.160.18
CA-OR Adult Male Harvest Rates
What reduction in daily bag limit equates to a 14 day season length
reduction?
100 day seasons (1996-2011) average harvest = 315,000
100 day season (2012) = 243,000
100 day season (2013) = 128,000
86 day season (1984) = 265,000
-Bag limit in 1984 was 5, not 7-Excluding 2002 and 2004
Need a 15% reduction in harvest to obtain moderate season harvest
Mallard Harvest in California100 day seasons (1996-2011) avg = 315,000100 day season (2012) = 243,000100 day season (2013) = 128,000100 day season (2014) = 106,370
2013-14 = overall decline in duck harvest
Average Mallard Harvest by Month*
October November December January60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
*For years with 100 day ducks seasons: 1996-2001, 2003, 2005-2014
Alaska Breeding Mallards / CA Harvest
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000Alaska Mallards
CA Harvested Mallards
Year
Ala
ska
BP
OP
(in
tho
usan
ds)
Mallard Harvest VS Season Length
19621966
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20100
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Harvest Days
Days
Mallard Harvest
Model-based Flyway Predictions
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
All Mall
Males
Females
Daily Bag Limit
% R
ed
uc
tio
n i
n H
arv
es
t
86 Day Straight OptionNE Zone: Oct 10 – Jan 3
BOS, So CA, SSJV zones: Nov 7 – Jan 31
Co R Zone: Must match Arizona
Goose seasons remain 100+ days
86 Day Split Option???NE Zone: Oct 10 – Oct 18 (9) &
Oct 27 – Jan 11 (77)
BOS, So CA, SSJV Zones: Oct 24 -
CO R Zone: Must match Arizona
Goose seasons remain 100+ days
CA Mallard Harvest2012 = 243,4672013 = 127,977 2014 = 106,370
Most species declined in harvest in 2014