Preliminary statistical analysis of

the international eventing

results 2014

Madrid 23/1/15

Overview of the talk

Statistical analysis

• The analysis and the data

• Analysis of the fall data (related to a fence)

• Analysis of results data

What are the factors that on their own and as a combination are correlated with

good results, Refusals, EL, Horse Fall, Unseated Rider ?

Age of horse and rider, barely qualified, previous results, competing at

international level since when, average number of successful / unsuccessful

competitions per year at that level, number of competition as a combination, …

Are there parameters that significantly alter the probability of a fall?

1. The questions addressed in this analysis

Homework: questions / interesting points raised during the seminar

Possibility to distinguish XC profiles??

The major steps in a statistical analysis

• Define the interesting questions and factors, that might affect risk

• Query the FEI database and compose file with data

• Encode data for statistical analysis

• Perform the analysis

• Interpretation of the results

Giuseppe’s slide

Excel file with data on each international starter 161 000 rows

and 650 columns

2. The data file

Profile of rider:

age

# different horses

# starts 1*, 2*, 3*, 4*

# MER 1*, 2*, 3*, 4*

Profile horse:

age

# different horses

# starts 1*, 2*, 3*, 4*

# MER 1*, 2*, 3*, 4*

Multidimensional

highly correlated

dataset

Low dimensional

uncorrelated

datasetPCA, FA

Profile of competition

CCI or CIC

Star-level

SJ before XC

Speed

Distance

Result

Dressage: pen

XC: pen, EL (R, Fall) RET,WD

SJ: pen, EL, RET,WD

Profile of fall

38 columns

977 rows

Identifications, Date,

Officials, …

File: 2004-2014 but focus on 2014

Fall analysis

Grouping of competitions

CCIY1*

CCIYH1*

CCIJ1*

CCIP1*

CCIP2*

CCIU252*

CCIY2*

CCIO3*-NC

CCIU253*

CICYH1*

CICJ1*

CICY2*

CICYH2*

CICO3*-NC

CCI1*

CCI2*

CCI3*

CCI4*

CIC1*

CIC2*

CIC3*

CIC4*

Asian Games-C1* CH-EU-P-C2* WEG-C

C.Am+Caraib Games-CCI1* CH-EU-Y-CCI2*

CH-Balkan-CCI1* CH-M-YH-CCI2*

CH-EU-J-CCI1* CH-N.Am-Y-CCI2*

CH-M-YH-CCI1* CH-S.Am-C2*

CH-N.Am-J-CCI1*

Championship 1* Championship 2* WEG

# starters # competitions # XC-FH % XC-FH # XC-FR % XC-FR

CCI1* 3832 126 30 0.8 141 3.7

CCI2* 1667 73 25 1.5 69 4.1

CCI3* 642 22 22 3.4 48 7.5

CCI4* 308 6 20 6.5 30 9.7

6449 227 97 1.5 288 4.5

CIC1* 5421 146 40 0.7 180 3.3

CIC2* 4576 249 47 1.0 138 3.0

CIC3* 2314 80 38 1.6 90 3.9

12311 475 125 1.0 408 3.3

CH1* 221 6 9 4.1 17 7.7

CH2* 196 5 10 5.1 10 5.1

WEG 90 1 3 3.3 7 7.8

507 12 22 4.3 34 6.7

Competition Format and Horse Falls

?

Normal competitions:

- numbers of horse falls and unseated riders increase with star level;

- approximately 3 times more unseated riders than horse falls

Championships:

- alarming number of falls in particular horse falls

Falls and type of fences

No normalization by the number of times the type of fence is jumped!

C. square spread

E. brush

F. round

In total 912 falls related to fences

Unseated Riders: 685 (75%) Horse Falls: 227 (25%)

Similar to 2013

In 2013 total 817 falls related to fences

2013 2014

More (as compared with FR) horse fall on type C less on type E

Significant difference between the distribution of

Unseated riders and horse falls (chi-square p=0.014)

Unseated Riders: 685 (75%) Horse Falls: 227 (25%)

2013 Distribution Unseated riders and horse falls over the fence types

Relative more Horse Falls than

Unseated Riders on type C

Relative more Unseated Riders than

Horse Falls on type G (corner) and J(step)

Not in 2014

At the end?!

Horse

falls

Unseated

athlete

NB: 44 of the 974 falls are not related to fences

Where does the fall occur: fence number ?

Falls and ground conditions

FALSE TRUE valid

Combination 370 542 912

Fence Type

Option 901 11 912

Frangible 841 71 912

Portable 477 435 912

Related to water 728 246 974

Terrain 443 531 974

Ground Line 196 716 912

Off a Bend 629 345 974

Air Jacket worn 303 545 848

Air Jacket activated 452 504 956

Frangible break 5

Horse fell or tread on Rider 923 33 956

Accident Type 661 295 956

Horse slipped? 883 73 956

Wind 839 117 956

Poor Visibility 949 7 956

Horse refused? 674 238 912

Horse hit Fence? 411 563 974

Horse tipped portable? 4

Horse broke fence? 880 32 912

Horse somersaulted? 880 32 912

Inexperience 624 350 974

Rider fatigue 953 3 956

Horse out of control 937 19 956

Horse too fast 851 105 956

Horse too slow 887 69 956

Light situation 905 39 944

Horse impaired by health 953 3 956

Horse fatigued 936 20 956

Horse distracted 945 11 956

Other fall characteristics: frequencies of individual parameters

Component

1 2 3 4 5

Fall Fence Combination 0.513

Fall Fence Portable -0.572

Fall Fence Related to water 0.457

Fall Fence Ground line -0.341

Fall Fence Off a bend 0.468 -0.463

Did horse fall on or tread on athlete

Did the horse slip

Injury level 0.421 -0.316

Did horse refuse -0.548 0.364

Did horse hit the fence 0.684

Did horse break the fence 0.448

Did horse somersault 0.345

Inexperience 0.435

Athlete impaired by fatigue

Horse out of control -0.527

Horse too fast -0.524 0.444

Horse too slow 0.384 0.565

Horse fatigued

Horse distracted 0.346

Four (to 5) possible classes of falls related to a fence

NB: falls not related to fence are not included in this analysis

Falls in relation to other results

CIC1* CIC2* CIC3* CCI1* CCI2* CCI3* CCI4*

clear 66.3% 63.5% 59.2% 63.0% 58.8% 50.9% 40.5%

20 10.3% 10.9% 13.3% 11.3% 11.1% 13.2% 11.3%

40 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.9%

60 .9% 1.2% .5% 1.0% 1.0% .5% .3%

XC-R 4.4% 3.6% 2.3% 6.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2.3%

XC-FR 3.2% 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 4.2% 6.9% 9.7%

XC-FH .7% 1.0% 1.6% .8% 1.7% 2.7% 6.5%

XC-OT 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% .9% .6% 1.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Downward trend compensated by Falls, WD and RET

Results in function of competition format

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

CIC1* CIC2* CIC3* CCI1* CCI2* CCI3* CCI4*

40 60 XC-R XC-FR XC-FH XC-OT XC-EL XC-RET XC-WD

RET

FHWD

FR

WDRET

TD’s with more than 200 starters

Results and TD

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

clear 1 20 2 40 3 60 4 XC-R 5 XC-FR 6

XC-FH 7 XC-OT 8 XC-EL 9 XC-RET 10 XC-WD 11 XC-AH-DR 12

SJ-EL 19 SJ-RET 20 SJ-WD 21 SJ-WD 100

# starters

TD’s with more than 200 starters

Falls and TD

# starters

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

XC-FR 6 XC-FH 7

118 of 210 CCI4*

CD’s with more than 300 starters

Results and CD

# starters

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

clear 20 40 60 XC-R XC-FR

XC-FH XC-OT XC-EL XC-RET XC-WD XC-AH-DR

SJ-EL SJ-RET SJ-WD rest

CD’s with more than 300 starters

Falls and CD

# starters

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

XC-FR XC-FH

ANOVA: the ResultCode has an influence

Dressage/Show Jumping score Result code, Starlevel

Result code N Mean Std. Deviation

clear 12098.0 54.3 7.5

20 2166.0 55.7 7.4

40 375.0 56.3 7.7

60 179.0 56.9 7.6

XC-R 817.0 57.1 9.0

XC-FR 699.0 55.5 9.6

XC-FH 225.0 55.4 9.6

XC-OT 204.0 57.0 8.4

XC-RET 839.0 55.5 8.4

XC-WD 751.0 56.2 10.0

Total 18355.0 54.9 7.952.5

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

55.5

56.0

56.5

57.0

57.5

Dressage penalties

Result code N Mean Std. Deviation

clear 12098 5.1 5.7

20 2166 5.7 5.6

40 375 6.7 6.3

60 179 6.4 6.3

XC-R 817 1.9 4.3

XC-FR 699 1.8 4.1

XC-FH 225 2.4 4.9

XC-OT 204 2.2 4.7

XC-RET 839 1.8 3.9

XC-WD 751 5.3 7.7

Total 18355 4.7 5.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Show Jumpiing fence penalties

Rider profile Result code

2 types of riders

- 1 and 2* riders

- 3 and 4* ridersNo clear clustering

Rider profile Horse Falls

X-axis: 3 and 4* riders

Y-axis: 1 and 2* riders

Horse profileHorse profile Result code

2 types of horses

- 3 and 4*

- older 1 and 2*

No clear clustering

Horse profileHorse profile Horse Faslls

X-axis: 3 and 4* riders

Y-axis: 1 and 2* riders

ResultCode PC1rider PC2rider PC3rider PC1horse PC2horse PC3horse

XC-clear Mean

SE

XC-20pen Mean -0.133

SE 0.025

XC-40pen Mean

SE

XC-60pen Mean -0.318 -0.298

SE 0.060 0.084

XC-EL-R Mean -0.351 -0.256

SE 0.023 0.035

XC-EL-FR Mean -0.227 -0.193

SE 0.030 0.032

XC-EL-FH Mean -0.188 0.220

SE 0.061 0.083

XC-RET Mean

SE

XC-WD Mean 0.180 0.176

SE 0.039 0.055

Total Mean 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.001

SE 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009

No experienced 1 and 2* horses

No 2 and 3* rider , Not many horses

No experienced 1 and 2* horses

No 2 and 3* rider , Not many horses

No experienced 1 and 2* horses

No 1, 2 and 3* rider , Not many horses

No 1* rider

Horse start in 2 and 3*

2and 3* rider with one horse

Horse start in 2 and 3*

2013: summary

To do 2014

Age of Rider, Horse Result Code, Star-level

Mean

Starlevel

Horse age at time of

competition

Athlete age at time of

competition

1 9,67 28,68

2 10,37 31,01

3 11,64 34,10

4 12,62 36,52

Total 10,27 30,44

Mean

ResultCode

Horse age at time of

competition

Athlete age at time of

competition

XC-clear 10,19 30,48

XC-20pen 10,24 29,84

XC-40pen 10,36 29,92

XC-60pen 10,03 28,41

XC-EL-R 10,39 29,03

XC-EL-FR 10,60 29,33

XC-EL-FH 10,49 29,91

XC-EL-OT 10,64 33,04

XC-RET 10,66 32,15

XC-WD 10,62 32,91

Total 10,27 30,44

Age of horse and age of the

athlete are significantly

different in the different star-

levels

The mean age of the athletes is

significantly different in the

different results classes; not the

age of the horse.

2013

Gender analysis

Significantly more women in CIC1* No difference in results

Gender analysis

Males more competitive??

Acknowledgements

FEI-eventing department: Giuseppe, Catrin, Nathalie

FEI-IT department: Jérôme Begey