Predictive Threats Analysis

Infogence – A Brief Introduction

• Infogence LTD was established in order to answer the security information needs of SME’s as well as large organisations. We aim to provide reports which are beneficial for all levels of personnel in the security sector; from managers as well as front line staff.

• Infogence Intelligence Report is a monthly report consisting of fully analysed topics ranging from new methods of operations, to IED’s, to past terror events, and many others.

• With our unique accessibility to terror knowledge databases, we form the most accurate reports which are based on real-life scenarios and events.

Our Team of Experts

• Our team of experts consists of:

– Researchers and Translators

– Analysts

– Experts in the Various Security Related Subjects

• All of our experts are highly skilled and experienced within their field;

they all have a military (intelligence) background and/or extensive

security-related experience.

• They are fluent in several languages in order to gather and interpret

information in an efficient matter.

Our Products

We offer several products, all suited to our consumers’ needs. These

products are:

1) Monthly Shelf Reports – Data collected mainly from online sources,

analysed, translated and summarised. Our monthly reports include 4

topics.

2) Tailor-Made Reports – Tailor-made reports can be produced

according to a specific organisation’s needs.

3) Specified Reports – These reports are dedicated entirely to ONE

specific subject ranging from politics and security, IED’s, case

studies and many more.

Core Competencies

Superior actionable Superior actionable

intelligence intelligence

�Veterans of the various units of the IC

�Special ops planners and operatives

�Diversity

��Collection and analysisCollection and analysis

interactivenessinteractiveness

�Web 2.0 subject matter expertise

�Cyber navigation

�Forensics skills

�Native speakers

�Arabic, Farsi, Turkish, Russian, English

�Unique Web language –

‘Arabish’, ‘Penglish’

��Working methodology Working methodology –– active active

accessaccess�On-going monitoring

�Flexibility

��Proactive collection Proactive collection –– Virtual Virtual HumintHumint5

Denomination

Phone

Numbers

Where…

?

Blog EntriesDiscussion

Groups

Media

CoverageAudio

Recordings

ProfessionStill footage

The Web Opportunity

Sources Formats

Data

WebsitesOpen

ForumsBlogs

Restricted

Forums

File Share

ServicesChat

Rooms

Mailing Groups

Instant

Messaging

Documents

Posts

Videos

Presentations

Electronic

books

Animation

Login Name

Email

Address

Alias

Time ZoneIP Address

Full Name

OS

Language

AgeDialect

Visual Hooks

Voice Prints

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Terror Capabilities

• A 3600 analysis of the various components

underlying global terror threats:

IEDs

initiation systems

Stand-off weapons

Improvised armaments

Countermeasure awareness

target intel collection

Concealment

Fake / assumed identities

Weapons proficiency

“how to” everything

Attack specific training

Madrid Bombings

Marriot VBIED

7

PORTFOLIO EXAMPLES

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Terror Capabilities: Attack on Marriot

Hotel.

“The mariot barricades”

“…I present to you images and videos about types of barriers used in

hotels, military installations, embassies, camps, etc.

This image illustrates the destruction and wreckage sustained by a truck

attempting to storm that barrier:

...I found no better way of storming it than with motorcycles of a storming

and breaching unit. Even if they get to clash with the guards, they will clear the

way for their fellows, to hit and run.”

Source – AlHesbah (Prominent Jihad forum), posted September 21st 2008

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“A brief and detailed analysis report Of the blessed Attack

on Madrid And the fatal mistake” - Abdullah Dhu Al-

BajadinThe first train

Terror Capabilities: Madrid Train

Bombing

It's not conspicuous and can carry the IED

without creating suspicion or drawing

attention.

The nails that were used in the bombings.

The more corrosion sets in, the deadlier and

more toxic the fragmentation will be.

The first mistake (consists of 2 parts):

1. In order to acquire this strong explosive, the brothers had to expose themselves to the people expose themselves to the people

that supplied it to themthat supplied it to them.

2. The important disadvantage and the fatal mistake is that the brothers used cellular phones as cellular phones as

timers for the timers for the IEDsIEDs - they should have used alarm clocks that obviously, couldn't be traced.

The second mistake

The cars that the mujahedin used to get to their targets were left in front of the targeted train

stations. This is a big mistake because it could have been stolen.

The third mistake

The mujahedun brothers forgot that they must not touch the cellular phones with their bear hands not touch the cellular phones with their bear hands

because it can turn into criminal evidence.

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Virtual HUMINT and the Terrobox Data Warehouse

METHODOLOGY

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Methodology

Managing a virtual identity over the Web is a

HUMINT operation for all intents and purposes

Q: How did you get to know about

Al-Mizan forum on the internet ?

A: Via Another Web forum, Majid

Al-Islam, I was a member there

Q:What do you know about Al-

Mizan Participants ?

A: I have read many publications by

our brother Fares Al-Jihad in other

forums, and I have immense

respect for him

Alias: ya_hussein \ Al-Mumahhed

Denomination: Shiite

Origin: Lebanese

Place of residence: UK, London

Registered to forums: […]

Active in operations: […]



Origin: Lebanese




Methodology



Origin: Lebanese




We operate over 100 active

entities, registered to

hundreds of hard core

Jihadi sites

Monthly Reports

• Our monthly report contains 4 articles, mostly

regarding different topics. They are based on

past/present events, current terror activities and

threats.

• In addition to written material, the reports are

accompanied by genuine video clips which

illustrate the different stages of the event.

Tailor-Made Reports

If a tailor-made report is required for a business

on a specific topic which has not been covered,

we can create one based on the consumer’s

needs.

Off-the-Shelf Reports

Currently there are 4 off-the-shelf reports:

1. Mobius – represents current capabilities in

manufacturing IED’s, VBIED’s, body worn IED’s,

detonators, camouflage etc.

2. Al-Khemia – presents and analyses real-life explosives

recipes as they appear in hardcore terrorists’ knowledge

bases.

Off-the-Shelf Reports (Cont.)

3. Hydra – aims to provide the reader with

an understanding of the nature, scope,

scale and change dynamics of the

extremist use of the internet, i.e. forums

etc.

4. Looking Glass – an analysis of leading

extremist behavioural patterns over the

web. The report will focus on prominent

experts in the field of explosives and IED

manufacturing.

• More reports are coming soon…

Thank You..

Predictive Threats Analysis

Technology

Transcript of Predictive Threats Analysis