Predictive Maintenance & Service (PdMS) - Outline …©2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All...

Predictive Maintenance & Service (PdMS) -Outline and Value PropositionOliver Mainka, Strategic ProjectsNovember 2014

© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2Customer

Predictive analysis encompasses a range of analytic techniques

… the exploration and analysis, by automatic or semi-automatic means, of large quantities of data in order to discover meaningful patterns and rules.”

Gordon Linoff and Michael BerryAuthors of “Data Mining Techniques”

“

… the process of discovering meaningful new correlations, patternsand trends by sifting through large amounts of data stored in repositories, using pattern recognition technologies as well as statistical and mathematical techniques.”

Gartner Group

“

What is “Predictive Analysis”?


ChallengesChallenges

Forecasting

KeyInfluencers

Trends

Anomalies

Relationships

How do historical sales, costs, key performance metrics, and so on, translate to future performance? How do predicted results compare with goals?

What are the main influencers of customer satisfaction, customer churn, employee turnover, and so on, that impact success?

What are the trends: historical / emerging, sudden step changes, unusual numeric values that impact the business?

What are the correlations in the data? What are the

cross-sell and up-sell opportunities?

What anomalies might exist and

conversely what groupings or clusters

might exist for specific analysis?

Predictive Analytics Needs (with Consumer Products samples)


Predictive Maintenance is an Important Building Block for Improving Failing Assets

Predict Act

Source: Gartner

devices connected by 2020*

50 billion

price of sensors, microprocessors & wireless technologies today vs. 4 years ago**

1/540-50%CAGR for M2M market until 2020*

Sensor Data

Business Data

EnvironmentalData

Pattern and Root

CauseAnalysis Pr

edic

tions

- Create notification- Alter maintenance schedule- Preposition spare parts- Find “bad” suppliers- Change product specs- Service scheduling- Recommend services- Lower cost for PowerByHour- …

*Source: Gartner – “Top 10 Tech Trends for 2013” – 2012

**Source: Economist Intelligence Unit – ”The Rise of the Machines” – 2012

Sense

IoT M2M

IT/OT


Cost to Repair

Predictive Maintenance and Service Illustrated: The P-F Interval Curve

Mac

hine

Cap

abilit

y /

Res

ista

nce

to F

ailu

re

Time

Potential FailureP

TotalFailure

F Functional Failure

Preventive Maintenance& Monitor Condition

Equipment UnusableRepair or Replace

Mechanically Loose

Ancillary Damage

Early Signal 3 - Oil Contamination Detected

Audible Noise

Hot to Touch

Early Signal 2 – Vibration Analysis Fault

Early Signal 1 – Ultrasonic Energy DetectedEffect of

PdMS

“Can”

“Want”


SAP HANA Platform

SAPInfiniteInsight

SAPLumira

SAP PredictiveAnalysis


2013 PdMS Co-Innovation Projects (all OEMs)

Industry Country Scope

Automotive Germany Manufacturing Quality Assurance by automatic failure identification and anticipationbased on machine data.

Automotive Germany, US

Vehicle health prediction to improve manufacturing quality, service planning and customer satisfaction based on business and telemetry data. Very big data: Hana / Hadoop

AutomotiveTuning

Germany Product improvement in R&D based on vehicle test data.

AgriculturalEquipment

US Early identification of emerging issues for product improvement and failure prediction to reduce downtime based on business and telemetry data.

AgriculturalEquipment

Germany Identification and prioritization of machine failure pattern for product improvementbased on business and machine data.

Compressed Air Equipment

Germany Machine health prediction to lower service costs and increase machine up-time. Enable service, sales and R&D to transform the company to an industrial service provider.

Food IndustryEquipment

Germany Identification of health finger print based on vibration analysis. Integration of and monitoring of machine health using failure pattern for product improvement from business and machine data.

Aerospace US Systems trending and alert management framework which allows customer support to propose alternative maintenance schedules which may avoid unplanned downtime, increase aircraft availability and increase service and maintenance revenues.


2014 PdMS Co-Innovation Projects

Industry Country Scope

Started / Confirmed

Aerospace USA Aircraft Health Management / work order creation

Mining Canada Yield prognosis for wells based on asset measurements

Rail Italy Optimized maintenance schedules based on telematics

Chemical Germany Data mining of all manufacturing data from assets and production

Aerospace MRO Switzerland Root cause analysis / new customer services

Flooring USA Relationship between customer warranty cases, production issues, and faulty machines

Oil & Gas USA Lower unneeded preventive maintenance activities; predict breakdowns

Discussing

Industrial Equipment

USA New customer services based on telematics data

Food and Beverage

USA Lower downtime of bad actor equipment by root cause analyses and predictions


Demo Predictive Maintenance & Services Application


Demo “Emerging Issues Detection”


Visualizing Sensor / Tag Event Data


Correlating Sensor Data and Maintenance Events


Vibration Analysis

Identification of health finger print based on vibration analysis

Trend analysis and pattern comparison on vibration and process data

Detect emerging dangerous vibrations

Change from manual, reactive vibration analysis processto an automated, proactive process

Improvement of machine uptime and reduction ofmaintenance costs.


Lower-level machine data analysis

Analyze motor test bed data

Find metal cracks and compare heat signatures

Oven temperature Press force Press temperature


Association Rules and Decision Trees


Practical Example for Association Rules and Decision Trees


Applying Association Rules to New Vehicle Readouts


Sample Decision Tree


Integrating data from unstructured text


Text Cluster Analysis


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