Predictions_2016_The_Mobi__1_

Predictions 2016: The Mobile Revolution AcceleratesLandscape: The Mobile eBusiness Playbook

by Thomas Husson, Julie A. Ask, Jeffrey S. Hammond, Michael Facemire, Jennifer Wise, Tyler Shields, and Christian KaneNovember 9, 2015

FOR EBUSINESS & CHANNEL STRATEGY PROFESSIONALS

FORRESTER.COM

Key TakeawaysUser Expectations Will Soar Beyond Branded AppsConsumers’ and employees’ expectations to be served in their mobile moments will increase globally. Instead of app-hopping, they will find it increasingly convenient to get what they need within a contextual stream on a single platform or on integrated apps. This will foster the emergence of new platforms like Amazon, Facebook, or WeChat challenging Apple’s and Google’s duopoly in mobile.

A Quarter Of Companies Will Fully Integrate Mobile Into Their Overall StrategyTo leapfrog competition, leaders will stop using mobile as a channel and do three things really well: 1) Execute cross-channel integration of mobile across the customer life cycle; 2) prioritize the integration of mobile with back-end systems; and 3) evolve their culture, organizations, and processes.

Mobile Will Redefine The Vendor LandscapeIn 2016, mobile success will be a key differentiator for enterprise mobile and marketing tech vendors, and digital platforms owning as many mobile moments as possible will become critical.

Why Read This BriefAs the mobile mind shift speeds up even more in 2016, consumers’ expectations will soar, pressuring you to do better at tapping contextual data to serve them better. More companies will treat mobile as core to the whole customer experience — not just as a channel — and an ocean of vendors eager to capitalize on this frenzy will teem with new players emerging as existing ones join forces or die off. This brief tells how that story will play out across 15 top trends you need to know about to successfully evolve your culture, organization, and processes for mobile and leapfrog your competition.

© 2015 Forrester Research, Inc. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. Unauthorized copying or distributing is a violation of copyright law. [email protected] or +1 866-367-7378

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Predictions 2016: The Mobile Revolution AcceleratesLandscape: The Mobile eBusiness Playbook

by Thomas Husson, Julie A. Ask, Jeffrey S. Hammond, Michael Facemire, Jennifer Wise, Tyler Shields, and Christian Kanewith Sharyn Leaver, Dan Bieler, Frank E. Gillett, J.P. Gownder, Fatemeh Khatibloo, Pamela Heiligenthal, Andras Cser, Christopher Voce, Christopher Mines, and Kasia Madej

November 9, 2015

User Trends: Expectations Soar Beyond Branded AppsThe global mobile revolution — while still in its infancy — will accelerate next year. By the end of 2016, Forrester forecasts that 4.8 billion individuals globally will use a mobile phone.1 Smartphone subscribers will represent 46% of the global population, largely driven by an accelerated adoption in Africa and Asia.2 We expect the following mobile usage, behaviors, and attitudes to develop among consumers and employees:

› The “mobile Internet” becomes meaningless — globally. Contrary to most business leaders, consumers will stop considering the mobile Internet as a scaled-down subset of the “real” Internet. Mobile devices will become their go-to technology, even in mature economies where people can use alternative devices at home. US and European consumers will expect to be served in their mobile moments and will start to catch up to more demanding Asian consumers.3 Developing economies are leading the charge. Turkey and Iran will join Nigeria, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Poland on the list of key developing economies where mobile traffic will surpass PC traffic.

› Consumers streamline their app experience. Consumers will continue to spend most of their time in only a few apps but will increasingly turn to aggregation apps and a handful of platforms (e.g., Facebook, Google Maps, WeChat) to get the content and services they need. Why? Because it will be more convenient to navigate a contextual stream on a single platform rather than hop among apps. Capabilities like Apple’s iOS 9 Peek and Pop and services like Google Now and Microsoft Cortana will allow developers to address users’ mobile moments without writing individual mobile apps.

› Thirty percent of purchases touch mobile. In 2016, Forrester forecasts mobile and tablet commerce will reach $142 billion in the US and €86 billion in EU-7, representing respectively 38% and 32% of online transactions.4 And in the US, more than 30% of sales will have a mobile cross-channel component, meaning consumers will use mobile at some point throughout the purchase


Predictions 2016: The Mobile Revolution AcceleratesNovember 9, 2015

© 2015 Forrester Research, Inc. Unauthorized copying or distributing is a violation of copyright law. [email protected] or +1 866-367-7378

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Landscape: The Mobile eBusiness Playbook

life cycle, from product research to in-store interactions.5 Indeed, trust and convenience and logged-in experiences will lead consumers to spend more via mobile and to start using mobile payments and wallet solutions like Apple Pay or Android Pay.

› Privacy concerns increase, but most users’ daily habits don’t change. Consumers will be increasingly aware of the hidden harvesting of their data via mobile devices. With mobile ad blockers and privacy plug-ins becoming easier to install and use, and Apple including native content blocking in iOS 9, consumer adoption will significantly increase.6 But even with the media’s use of the Ashley Madison and Home Depot breaches as a springboard for privacy discussions, most consumers won’t change their daily mobile usage behaviors, relying instead on protective technologies and privacy advocates to fight for greater privacy rights.

› Employee mobile app adoption surges in the enterprise. App-enabled employees at global enterprises are 50% more likely to report that their fellow employees are happy to work at their company and 40% more likely to say their company’s customers are satisfied with the company’s products and services.7 In 2016, 61% of mobility decision-makers at enterprises expect to roll out new mobile-based products and services and 62% will increase their budgets to pay for more apps.8 Laggards will begin rolling out mobile apps for customer-facing employees, while leaders will enable more employees with mobile apps that improve operational tasks.

Technology Trends: Contextual Data Fuels Next-Generation MobileMobile experiences are too static today and leverage too little consumer context. As customer expectations of convenience escalate, the pressure will be on firms to tap new technologies to serve customers in context where they already are — not where brands find it convenient to serve them. Firms must look to use context both to assemble and deliver experiences dynamically on their own and third-party platforms. In 2016:

› Digital platforms leverage mobile and IoT data to improve their own services. Connected devices and services such as apps, cars, TVs, fitness bands, and scales are generating data about consumer usage, preferences, and environments at an unprecedented pace. In 2016, companies will begin to collect data from multiple sources, create insights through crowdsourcing and big data solutions, and begin to use the insights to deliver utility back to consumers. Digital platforms such as Amazon, Apple, and Google will fuel their own product and service development in 2016.9 Third-party access to mobile and Internet of Things (IoT) data via customer-permissioned platform access will have to wait until 2017 and beyond.

› Alternative ecosystems beyond Android and iOS emerge. With consumers using fewer or more integrated apps, new mobile platforms such as WeChat in China or Facebook Messenger in the US are quickly accumulating power as the owners of vast audiences and rich data about those consumers. In 2016, these ecosystems will grow as brands look to serve existing customers




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in context and developers flock to platforms with large audiences. While Apple, Facebook, and Google lead in the US, don’t count out Amazon in the home, Microsoft in the enterprise, or US market entry from large ecosystem players in China.

› Google battles Android fragmentation but makes little headway. With 78% of smartphones globally running on some version of Android in 2015, Google has the largest addressable mobile ecosystem.10 This won’t change in 2016. But Android’s fragmentation problem will grow worse as long as original equipment manufacturers and carriers are calling the shots. To combat it, expect Google to reset its Android One program and invest more in expanding its services to other platforms (e.g., Android Wear, Eddystone, Google for Work). This will benefit Apple, who will continue to grow its premium share, but also Google, as it won’t have to depend on wide penetration for Android 6.0 (Marshmallow).

› Due to exponential attacks, mobile security will extend to include user context. The number of malicious mobile security attacks will at least double from 2015. While these breaches won’t significantly affect consumer behaviors, businesses will still have to invest more to meet the level of risk they are seeing on a daily basis. Mobile security vendors will expand to include operating system, user, application, and network contextual data to improve the user experience around security controls such as mobile authentication and authorization. For example, we will see risk and user behaviors embedded into mobile authentication technologies that allow mobile application single sign-on to emerge. The combination of fingerprint, voice, and facial recognition will augment passwords on mobile devices and enable new mobile payment use cases.

Business Trends: Execs Finally Integrate Mobile Into Their StrategiesToday just 18% of companies surveyed are beyond mobile-first and using mobile to transform the entire customer experience.11 Next year, Forrester expects that more than 25% of companies will use mobile not as a channel, but as a fully integrated part of their overall strategy. In 2016:

› Mature marketing and eBusiness leaders will tackle cross-channel integration. Mature business leaders will track and measure the impact of mobile on other online and offline channels, fostering cross-channel planning thanks to mobile attribution. Vendors will enable it: Marketing cloud vendors deliver across channels. For example, Tapad partnered with Ninth Decimal to combine cross-device tracking and location intelligence. And Facebook’s Atlas partnership connects some mobile ads to in-store POS systems through deterministic tracking. Yet still only a minority of marketers will actually use these solutions to prove and scale customer life-cycle engagement.

› Technology management will prioritize mobile within the BT agenda. Mobility, along with technology required to harness insights and provide context, will top cloud as technology management’s priority within its business technology (BT) agenda. CIOs will need to build architectures that give life-cycle solutions such as enterprise marketing, product innovation, and sales fulfilment access to real-time information and services. Beyond consumer apps, CIOs will also face at least twice the amount of apps aimed at employees and partners.




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› Exec teams will tap mobile to help transform culture and leapfrog competition. Leaders will evolve their culture as they use mobile as a catalyst for digital and business transformation. How? They will start by mobilizing employees’ working habits and then 1) break down the wall between business sponsors and development and deployment teams; 2) build future-ready infrastructure; and 3) become agile. Exec teams at leading firms will invest in these areas despite not knowing exactly what the next-generation devices and services will be. They will make small bets, fail, learn, iterate, and move on.

Vendor Trends: Mobile Success Defines Which Vendors Grow Or FlagThe headlong rush to profit from the mobile mind shift has spawned an explosion of mobile specialists and mobile opportunists, all trying to convince business and technology decision-makers that they have the right approach. In 2016, the mobile bazaar will continue to grow even while consolidation occurs:

› The battle for mobile moments drives acquisitions from Internet giants. Winning in your customers’ mobile moments demands both context and data and ownership of those moments.12 Acquisitions will help Internet giants like Facebook and Google expand their audience to reach new demographic segments (e.g., teens or kids), geographies (e.g., WeChat’s investment in Canada’s Kik for $50 million), or markets (e.g., Google’s acquisition of Nest and Dropcam).13 Streaming music players (e.g., Spotify or Pandora) or news curator Flipboard would be ideal targets since they drive significant audiences and contextual data. Pending complex financial valuations issues, Yahoo could be of interest to a major digital platform.

› Enterprise mobile vendors consolidate. The mobile infrastructure services market is still quite fragmented with over 30 solutions.14 The convergence between mobile middleware and mobile back-end-as-a-service markets, coupled with the need to support front-end developers with application programming interface management, JavaScript stacks, and IoT, will accelerate consolidation in 2016. Expect enterprise software players, large systems integrators, and public cloud vendors like Adobe, Amazon, Cisco, HP, Intel, and Salesforce to acquire smaller players like AnyPresence, Appcelerator, Kinvey, Kony, Xamarin, or Xively.

› Big marketing tech vendors invest in mobile and automate it. Consumers string together a brand experience from moments that traverse channels and devices, and marketing tech stacks have to do the same. In 2016, marketing tech vendors will find themselves in an arms race to provide not just automation, but machine learning to derive insights from big data and campaign optimization. They will focus R&D on improved data management capabilities and predictive algorithms. Mobile-centric solutions like Kahuna, Localytics, Swrve, and Urban Airship will grow and polish their in-app life-cycle management stacks, while the big-cloud marketing companies like Adobe and Salesforce will look toward more acquisitions and more integration mobile engagement solutions (in-app messaging, content pages, advertising, and cross-channel customer management).




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Endnotes1 Source: Forrester Research World Mobile And Smartphone Adoption Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Global).

2 Source: Forrester Research World Mobile And Smartphone Adoption Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Global).

3 For more information on consumers’ mobile intensity, expectations, and behaviors, see the “The New Mobile Mind Shift Index: Global” Forrester report.

4 Source: Forrester Research Mobile And Tablet Commerce Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (EU-7) and Forrester Research Mobile And Tablet Commerce Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (US).

5 Source: Forrester Research Web-Influenced Retail Sales Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (US).

6 The following survey found that 24% of US online adults who use a laptop or desktop use ad-blocking technology on their desktops, and predating iOS 9, 14% of US online adults who use tablets were using these tools on their tablet devices. Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technographics® Consumer Technology Survey, 2015.

7 “App-enabled employees” is defined as employees with six or more company-specific mobile applications. Source: Forrester’s Global Business Technographics Telecommunications And Mobility Workforce Survey, 2015.

8 Source: Forrester’s Global Business Technographics Mobility Survey, 2015.

9 For more information on digital platforms and their opportunities, see the “The Clash Of The Digital Platforms” Forrester report.

10 Source: Forrester Research World Mobile And Smartphone Adoption Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Global).

11 Source: Forrester’s Q2 2015 Global Mobile Maturity Executive Survey.

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12 For more information on platform strategies, please see the “Your Customers Will Not Download Your App” Forrester report and see the “Mobile Platforms, Partners, And Power” Forrester report.

13 For more information on Tencent’s investment, check out the following link. Source: Drew Olanoff, “Kik Raises $50M From Tencent To Become The ‘WeChat Of The West,’” TechCrunch, August 18, 2015 (http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/18/kik-raises-50m-from-strategic-partner-tencent/#.0tglfa:F3nw).

For more information on Google’s acquisition of Dropcam, see the “Brief: Google’s Nest Buys Dropcam To Disrupt Digital Lifestyle” Forrester report.

14 For more information on the rapidly converging MIS platform market, see the “Market Overview: Mobile Infrastructure Services Aid Developers” Forrester report.

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