Predictions about Politics · 2020. 8. 10. · Predictions about Politics A cure for polarization?...
Transcript of Predictions about Politics · 2020. 8. 10. · Predictions about Politics A cure for polarization?...
Predictions about PoliticsA cure for polarization?
Aaron M. Houck, J.D., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor, Political Science
Friday, 11 October 2019
Let’s talk about politics!
abortion
Black Lives Matter movement
guns
immigration
school prayer
…on second thought…
maybe let’s not talk about
politics
Polarization and Political
discourse
• Why is talking about politics so hard?
• How can we get anything done if we can’t talk to each other?
• What does any of this have to do with predictions???
Polarization and Political
discourse
• Why is talking about politics so hard?
• How can we get anything done if we can’t talk to each other?
• What does any of this have to do with predictions???
Polarization and Political
discourse
• Why is talking about politics so hard?
• How can we get anything done if we can’t talk to each other?
• What does any of this have to do with predictions???
Making predictions about
politics can alleviate the
symptoms of polarization.
U.S. politics is afflicted
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U.S. politics is afflicted
1. Diagnose the disease
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U.S. politics is afflicted
2.Find the cause
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U.S. politics is afflicted
3.Prescribe a cure
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Part One:
Diagnosing Polarization
What is polarization?
Hyperpartisanship
• coherent parties• distinct parties• intense views• close competition
Why is polarization bad?
Polarization leads to…
Why is polarization bad?
Polarization leads to…
• gridlock;
Why is polarization bad?
Polarization leads to…
• brinksmanship; and
Why is polarization bad?
Polarization leads to…
• nastiness.
Voteview
Why is polarization
occurring?
Why is polarization
occurring?
• Southern realignment? (almost certainly)• media? (maybe)• low voter turnout? (maybe)• money in politics? (it depends)• gerrymandering? (probably not)• closed primaries (probably not)• polarization is the norm?
Why is polarization occurring?
Because politicians don’t care about the
disappearing common ground.
Part Two:
Finding a Cure
Increasing polarization in
Congress
Pew Research Center
But it’s not just them!
Polarization—it’s not just for
politicians
Engaged voters are more
polarized
Why is polarization occurring?
Because we, the people, don’t care about the
disappearing common ground.
We genuinely disagree with each other…
strongly.
Can we find common ground?
PetBucket
Can we find common ground?
• ideologically?
PetBucket
Can we find common ground?
• ideologically?
PetBucket
Can we find common ground?
• empirically?
PetBucket
Empirical common ground?
Daniel Patrick Moynihan (Photo: Bettmann/Corbis via npr.org)
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Choice #1
empirical beliefs
ideological beliefs
Choice #1
empirical beliefs
ideological beliefs
Some problems with facts…
• There are many facts.
• The facts often don’t unambiguously support one conclusion over others.
• People use facts to serve their ends.
Choice #1
empirical beliefs
ideological beliefs
Choice #2
future facts
past facts
Choice #1
empirical beliefs
ideological beliefs
Choice #2
future facts
past facts
That brings us to…predictions!
Part Three:
A Prescription for
Predictions
Why predictions?
Predictions promote…
Why predictions?
Predictions promote…
• clear, critical thinking
Why predictions?
Predictions promote…
• awareness of bias
Why predictions?
Predictions promote…
• common tongue
Why predictions?
Predictions promote…
• accountability
Why predictions?
Predictions promote…
• HUMILITY!
How to use predictions
1. Choose your topics (and metrics).
2. Make your predictions.
3. Assess your predictions.
4. Calibrate and repeat!
Step 1. Choose your topics
(and metrics)
a) Pick both familiar and unfamiliar topics
b) be specific
c) frame the question as a binary choice
d) identify the precise source of the information you’ll use to determine what happened
Sample topics
• Will the House impeach the president? If so, will the Senate remove him?
• Will Trump win reelection in 2020?
• Will the Supreme Court overrule Roe v. Wade in the next five years?
• A year from now, will the stock market be up or down? What about the unemployment rate?
Step 2. Make your predictions
a) do a little research
b)think about relevant mechanisms
c) start with the “base rate”
d)assign precise probabilities to your predictions
Sample prediction
Will Donald Trump win reelection in 2020?
Sample prediction
Will Donald Trump win reelection in 2020?
• incumbents usually win, especially in times of peace and prosperity;
• there’s no obvious, formidable Democrat;• but Trump is historically unpopular, • he’s subject to an impeachment inquiry,• and he barely won last time…;• plus there are reasons to suspect the economy
might worsen before November 2020…
Sample prediction
Will Donald Trump win reelection in 2020?
Probability of Trump reelection: 38%
Step 3. Assess your predictions
a) keep track of your predictions
b)it’s not cheating to update your predictions in light of new information
c) note whether the event occurred or not
Tracking weather forecasts
40%
65%
35%
10%
Chance of Rain
30%
15%
20%
30%
70%
Tracking weather forecasts
40%
65%
35%
10%
Chance of Rain
30%
15%
20%
30%
70%
Rain at CLT?
yes
yes
no
no
no
no
no
yes
yes
A good prediction?
60%
Forecast:
Actual weather:
?
Image (modified): Domics, “What’s a Shrug?” YouTube (8 December 2012).
Assessing your predictions
60%
Forecast:
Actual weather:
Assessing your predictions
60%
Forecast:
Actual weather:
Assessing your predictions
20% 40%
20%
40%
0%
100%
60% 80% 100%
60%
80%
Predicted Probability
Fre
qu
en
cy
Assessing your predictions
20% 40%
20%
40%
0%
100%
60% 80% 100%
60%
80%
Predicted Probability
Fre
qu
en
cy
Step 4. Calibrate and repeat
a) learn from your mistakes
b)identify your blind spots
c) adopt a habit of systematic self-doubt (“why am I wrong?”)
d)learn to see the world more accurately
My vision, my hope
• people with different ideological perspectives gather to make (and assess!) predictions about politics
My vision, my hope
• the practice gives participants an incentive to see the empirical world accurately (rather than through an ideology-tinted lens)
My vision, my hope
• participants feel less negative partisanship and—perhaps—are better able to find common ground on policy
Questions and/or Comments?
Predictions about PoliticsA cure for polarization?
Aaron M. Houck, J.D., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor, Political Science
Friday, 11 October 2019
Why is polarization
occurring?
• Southern realignment?
Why is polarization
occurring?
Why is polarization
occurring?
• Southern realignment? (almost certainly)
Why is polarization
occurring?
• media?
Why is polarization
occurring?
Why is polarization
occurring?
• media? (maybe)
Why is polarization
occurring?
• low voter turnout?
Why is polarization
occurring?
United States Election Project
Why is polarization
occurring?
• low voter turnout? (maybe)
Why is polarization
occurring?
• money in politics?
Why is polarization
occurring?
Metrocosm
Metrocosm
Why is polarization
occurring?
• money in politics? (it depends)
Why is polarization
occurring?
• gerrymandering?
Why is polarization
occurring?
Barber and McCarty, in Persily, p. 29
Why is polarization
occurring?
• gerrymandering? (probably not)
Why is polarization
occurring?
• closed primaries
Why is polarization
occurring?
Why is polarization
occurring?
• closed primaries (probably not)
Why is polarization
occurring?
• polarization is the norm?
Voteview
Why is polarization
occurring?
Additional resources• Bueno de Mesquita, The
Predictioneer’s Game
• Silver, The Signal and the Noise
• Tetlock and Gardner, Superforecasting