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Transcript of Prediction, Goodness-of-Fit, and Modeling Issues Prepared by Vera Tabakova, East Carolina...
![Page 1: Prediction, Goodness-of-Fit, and Modeling Issues Prepared by Vera Tabakova, East Carolina University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649f2f5503460f94c49dda/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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4.1 Least Squares Prediction
4.2 Measuring Goodness-of-Fit
4.3 Modeling Issues
4.4 Log-Linear Models
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where e0 is a random error. We assume that and
. We also assume that and
0 1 2 0 0β βy x e
0 1 2 0E y x
0 0E e 20var e
0cov , 0 1,2, ,ie e i N
0 1 2 0y b b x
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Figure 4.1 A point prediction
Slide 4-4Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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0 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 0ˆf y y x e b b x
22 0
2
( )1var( ) 1
( )i
x xf
N x x
1 2 0 0 1 2 0
1 2 0 1 2 00 0
E f x E e E b E b x
x x
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The variance of the forecast error is smaller when
i. the overall uncertainty in the model is smaller, as measured by the variance of the random errors ;
ii. the sample size N is larger;
iii. the variation in the explanatory variable is larger; and
iv. the value of (xo – x)2 is small.
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se varf f
0ˆ secy t f
2
2 02
( )1ˆvar( ) 1
( )i
x xf
N x x
^
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Figure 4.2 Point and interval prediction
Slide 4-8Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
y
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0 1 2 0ˆ 83.4160 10.2096(20) 287.6089y b b x
22 0
2
2 22 2
0 2
22 2
0 2
( )1ˆvar( ) 1
( )
ˆ ˆˆ ( )
( )
ˆˆ ( ) var
i
i
x xf
N x x
x xN x x
x x bN
0ˆ se( ) 287.6069 2.0244(90.6328) 104.1323,471.0854cy t f
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1 2 i i iy x e
( )i i iy E y e
ˆ ˆi i iy y e
ˆ ˆ( )i i iy y y y e
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Figure 4.3 Explained and unexplained components of yi
Slide 4-11Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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2 2 2ˆ ˆ( ) ( )i i iy y y y e
2
2ˆ1
iy
y y
N
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= total sum of squares = SST: a measure of total variation in y about the sample mean.
= sum of squares due to the regression = SSR: that part of total variation in y, about the sample mean, that is explained by, or due to, the regression. Also known as the “explained sum of squares.”
= sum of squares due to error = SSE: that part of total variation in y about its mean that is not explained by the regression. Also known as the unexplained sum of squares, the residual sum of squares, or the sum of squared errors.
SST = SSR + SSE
2( )iy y
2ˆ( ) iy y
2ˆ ie
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The closer R2 is to one, the closer the sample values yi are to the fitted regression
equation . If R2= 1, then all the sample data fall exactly on the fitted
least squares line, so SSE = 0, and the model fits the data “perfectly.” If the sample
data for y and x are uncorrelated and show no linear association, then the least
squares fitted line is “horizontal,” so that SSR = 0 and R2 = 0.
2 1SSR SSE
RSST SST
1 2ˆi iy b b x
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cov( , )
var( ) var( )xy
xyx y
x y
x y
ˆ
ˆ ˆxy
xyx y
r
2
2
ˆ ( )( ) 1
ˆ ( ) 1
ˆ ( ) 1
xy i i
x i
y i
x x y y N
x x N
y y N
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R2 measures the linear association, or goodness-of-fit, between the sample data
and their predicted values. Consequently R2 is sometimes called a measure of
“goodness-of-fit.”
2 2xyr R
2 2ˆyyR r
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2
2 2
495132.160
ˆ ˆ 304505.176
i
i i i
SST y y
SSE y y e
2 304505.1761 1 .385
495132.160
SSER
SST
ˆ 478.75
.62ˆ ˆ 6.848 112.675
xyxy
x y
r
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Figure 4.4 Plot of predicted y, against y
Slide 4-18Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
y
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FOOD_EXP = weekly food expenditure by a household of size 3, in dollars
INCOME = weekly household income, in $100 units
* indicates significant at the 10% level
** indicates significant at the 5% level
*** indicates significant at the 1% level
2
* ***
83.42 10.21 .385
(se) (43.41) (2.09)
FOOD_EXP = INCOME R
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4.3.1 The Effects of Scaling the Data Changing the scale of x:
Changing the scale of y:
* *1 2 1 2 1 2 = ( )( / ) = y x e c x c e x e
* *2 2where β β and c x x c
* * * *1 2 1 2/ ( / ) ( / ) ( / ) or y c c c x e c y x e
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Variable transformations: Power: if x is a variable then xp means raising the variable to the power p; examples
are quadratic (x2) and cubic (x3) transformations.
The natural logarithm: if x is a variable then its natural logarithm is ln(x).
The reciprocal: if x is a variable then its reciprocal is 1/x.
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Figure 4.5 A nonlinear relationship between food expenditure and income
Slide 4-22Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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The log-log model
The parameter β is the elasticity of y with respect to x.
The log-linear model
A one-unit increase in x leads to (approximately) a 100×β2 percent change in y.
The linear-log model
A 1% increase in x leads to a β2/100 unit change in y.
1 2ln( ) ln( )y x
1 2ln( )i iy x
2
1 2 ln or 100 100
yy x
x x
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The reciprocal model is
The linear-log model is
1 2
1_FOOD EXP e
INCOME
1 2_ ln( )FOOD EXP INCOME e
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Remark: Given this array of models, that involve different transformations of the dependent and independent variables, and some of which have similar shapes, what are some guidelines for choosing a functional form?
1.Choose a shape that is consistent with what economic theory tells us about the relationship.2.Choose a shape that is sufficiently flexible to “fit” the data3.Choose a shape so that assumptions SR1-SR6 are satisfied, ensuring that the least squares estimators have the desirable properties described in Chapters 2 and 3.
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Figure 4.6 EViews output: residuals histogram and summary statistics for food expenditure example
Slide 4-26Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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The Jarque-Bera statistic is given by
where N is the sample size, S is skewness, and K is kurtosis.
In the food expenditure example
2
2 3
6 4
KNJB S
2
2 2.99 340.097 .063
6 4JB
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Figure 4.7 Scatter plot of wheat yield over time
Slide 4-28Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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1 2t t tYIELD TIME e
2.638 .0210 .649
(se) (.064) (.0022)t tYIELD TIME R
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Figure 4.8 Predicted, actual and residual values from straight line
Slide 4-30Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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Figure 4.9 Bar chart of residuals from straight line
Slide 4-31Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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31 2t t tYIELD TIME e
20.874 9.68 0.751
(se) (.036) (.082)t tYIELD TIMECUBE R
3 1000000TIMECUBE TIME
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Figure 4.10 Fitted, actual and residual values from equation with cubic term
Slide 4-33Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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0
1 2
ln ln ln 1tYIELD YIELD g t
t
ln .3434 .0178
(se) (.0584) (.0021) tYIELD t
Yield t = Yield0(1+g)t
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4.4.2 A Wage Equation
0
1 2
ln ln ln 1WAGE WAGE r EDUC
EDUC
ln .7884 .1038
(se) (.0849) (.0063)
WAGE EDUC
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4.4.3 Prediction in the Log-Linear Model
1 2ˆ exp ln expny y b b x
2ˆ2 21 2ˆ ˆ ˆexp 2c ny E y b b x y e
ln .7884 .1038 .7884 .1038 12 2.0335WAGE EDUC
2ˆ 2ˆ ˆ 7.6408 1.1276 8.6161c ny E y y e
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4.4.4 A Generalized R2 Measure
R2 values tend to be small with microeconomic, cross-sectional data, because the
variations in individual behavior are difficult to fully explain.
22 2ˆ,ˆcorr ,g y yR y y r
22 2ˆcorr , .4739 .2246g cR y y
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4.4.5 Prediction Intervals in the Log-Linear Model
exp ln se ,exp ln sec cy t f y t f
exp 2.0335 1.96 .4905 ,exp 2.0335 1.96 .4905 2.9184,20.0046
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Slide 4-39Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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Slide 4-40Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
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Slide 4-41Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
0 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 0ˆf y y x e b b x
20 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2
2 2 22 20 02 2 2
ˆvar var var var 2 cov ,
2i
i i i
y b b x b x b x b b
x xx x
N x x x x x x
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Slide 4-42Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
22 2 2 2 2 2 2 200
0 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 22 0 0
2 2
2 2
2 02 2
2
2 0
2ˆvar
2
1
i
i i i i i
i
i i
i
i i
x xx Nx x Nxy
N x x N x x x x x x N x x
x Nx x x x x
N x x x x
x x x x
N x x x x
x x
N x
2
i x
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Slide 4-43Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
(4A.1)
(4A.2)
~ (0,1)var( )
fN
f
2
2 02
1 ( )ˆvar 1
( )i
x xf
N x x
0 0
( 2)
ˆ~
se( )varN
f y yt
ff
( ) 1c cP t t t
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Slide 4-44Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
0 0ˆ[ ] 1
se( )c c
y yP t t
f
0 0 0ˆ ˆse( ) se( ) 1c cP y t f y y t f
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Slide 4-45Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
22 2 2ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ( ) ( ) 2( )i i i i i i iy y y y e y y e y y e
2 2 2ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ( ) 2 ( )i i i i iy y y y e y y e
1 2
1 2
ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ
ˆ ˆ ˆ
i i i i i i i i
i i i i
y y e y e y e b b x e y e
b e b x e y e
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Slide 4-46Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
If the model contains an intercept it is guaranteed that SST = SSR + SSE. If, however, the model does not contain an intercept, then and SST ≠ SSR + SSE.
1 2 1 2ˆ 0i i i i ie y b b x y Nb b x
21 2 1 2ˆ 0i i i i i i i i ix e x y b b x x y b x b x
ˆ ˆ 0i iy y e
ˆ 0ie
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Suppose that the variable y has a normal distribution, with mean μ and variance σ2. If we consider then is said to have a log-normal distribution.
Slide 4-47Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
yw e 2ln ~ ,y w N
2 2E w e
2 22var 1w e e
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Given the log-linear model
If we assume that
Slide 4-48Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
1 2ln y x e
2~ 0,e N
1 2 1 2
221 2 1 2 1 2 22
i i i i
i i i i
x e x ei
x e x x
E y E e E e e
e E e e e e
21 2 ˆ 2ib b x
iE y e
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The growth and wage equations:
and
Slide 4-49Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition
2 ln 1 r 2 1r e
222 2 2~ ,var ib N b x x
2 22 var /2bbE e e
2 2var /2ˆ 1b br e
222 ˆvar ib x x