Prediction as a TechnologyPrediction as a Technology

Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Roger A. Pielke Jr.

University of Colorado at Boulder

Presented at the University of Texas at Austin

January 25, 2007

A modified version was originally presented at Spoleto, Italy, July 15, 2006

There are three types of applications of these models: For process studies, for diagnosis and for forecasting

Process StudiesProcess Studies

The application of climate models to improve our understanding of how the system works is a valuable application of these tools. The term sensitivity study characterizes such a process study.

In a sensitivity study, a subset of the forcings and/or feedback of the climate system may be perturbed to examine its response. The model of the climate system might be incomplete and not include each of the important feedbacks and forcings.

DiagnosisDiagnosis

The application of climate models, in which observed data is assimilated into the model, to produce an observational analysis that is consistent with our best understanding of the climate system as represented by the manner in which the fundamental concepts and parameterizations are represented.

Although not yet applied to climate models, this procedure is used for weather reanalyses (see the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project).

ForecastingForecasting

The application of climate models to predict the future state of the climate system. Forecasts can be made from a single realization, or from an ensemble of forecasts which are produced by slightly perturbing the initial conditions and/or other aspects of the model.

The term ‘projection’ has been used to differentiate between a prediction and a projection. Dictionary definitions, however, indicate that these can mean the same thing, and that is how the climate impacts community interprets a ‘projection’ (i.e., as a forecast).

The IPCC Models are Process Studies NOT Predictions

The IPCC Models are Process Studies NOT Predictions

The use of the term "projection" by the climate community obscures that they are not predictions, yet the impacts community treats them as predictions.

Why is Weather Prediction Possible?Why is Weather Prediction Possible?

Procedure To Make Weather Predictions

Procedure To Make Weather Predictions

1.Observed initial weather conditions for "grid points" are obtained from satellites, balloon and surface data.

2.The change of the weather in time is solved on a computer for every grid point by marching forward in time steps of a minute or two.

3. Weather maps are periodically output to files for use by forecasters and the public.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_500_wnd.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_mslp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_prcp.gif

What are the Limits of Weather Prediction?

What are the Limits of Weather Prediction?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

What about Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction?

What about Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction?

Atmospheric carbon dioxide record from Mauna Loa. C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Carbon Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California 92093-0444. Period of Record, 1958-2004 http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf

Atmospheric carbon dioxide record from Mauna Loa. C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Carbon Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California 92093-0444. Period of Record, 1958-2004 http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf

What is Necessary for Accurate Multi-Decadal

Climate Prediction?

What is Necessary for Accurate Multi-Decadal

Climate Prediction?

National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change:

Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative

Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research

Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html

National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change:

Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative

Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research

Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html

From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html

Example of a pyrocumulus cloud

(copyright 2001, Axel Thielmann).

Example of industrial emissions from a

smokestack

From http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Laboratory/Aerosol/Images/anthro_smokestack.jpg

U.S. Geological Survey land-cover classes for pre-1900’s natural conditions (left) and 1993 land-use patterns (right). From Marshall, C.H., Pielke Sr. R.A., Steyaert, L.T., 2003. Crop freezes and land-use change in Florida. Nature, 426, 29-30.

http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-277.pdf

From: Pielke, R.A., T.J. Lee, J.H. Copeland, J.L. Eastman, C.L. Ziegler, and C.A. Finley, 1997: Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations. Ecological Applications, 7, 3-21.http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-175.pdf

• A Global Averages Surface Temperature Trend Tells Us Little About These Human Climate Forcings

• Most of the Climate Forcings Are On Regional Scales But Have Global Effects

• The Existence of These Human Climate Forcings Makes Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction A Very Difficult Task

What is an Alternative for Decision Makers If Skillful Multi-

decadal Climate Prediction are not Possible?

What is an Alternative for Decision Makers If Skillful Multi-

decadal Climate Prediction are not Possible?

WE NEED TO FOCUS ON A BOTTOM-UP PERSPECTIVE OF THE THREATS TO SOCIETALLY IMPORTANT RESOURCES

Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005

Hurricane DamageHurricane Damage

North Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

North Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Hurricanes and Florida 1941Hurricanes and Florida 1941--19501950

Rapidly Increasing LossesRapidly Increasing Losses

Source: C. Landsea, NOAA/HRD

Damage trend can’t be due to storm behavior aloneDamage trend can’t be due to storm behavior alone

Source: C. Landsea 2006Source: C. Landsea 2006

Two snapshots in timeTwo snapshots in time

Miami Beach1926

Source:Wendler Collection

Recognize thisRecognize this placeplace??

Miami Beach~2000

How They Have ChangedHow They Have Changed

Preliminary DataPreliminary Data

• 1. 1926 Great Miami $129,700,000,000• 2. 2005 Katrina $80,000,000,000• 3. 1900 Galveston $53,100,000,000• 4. 1992 Andrew $50,800,000,000• 5. 1915 Storm 2 $50,200,000,000• 6. 1938 New England $35,000,000,000• 7. 1944 Storm 9 $34,300,000,000• 8. 1928 Lake Okeechobee $29,600,000,000• 9. 1965 Donna $23,900,000,000• 10. 1903 Storm 3 $20,700,000,000

Preliminary Data – Most Damaging Storms

Preliminary Data – Most Damaging Storms

• 1. 1926 $141,400,000,000• 2. 2005 $100,000,000,000• 3. 1900 $53,100,000,000• 4. 1992 $52,500,000,000• 5. 1915 $52,200,000,000• 6. 1944 $45,900,000,000• 7. 2004 $45,100,000,000• 8. 1938 $35,000,000,000• 9. 1954 $32,700,000,000• 10. 1928 $29,600,000,000

Preliminary Data – Most Damaging Years

Preliminary Data – Most Damaging Years

What will future damages look like?

Trend: doubling in real terms every 7-12 yearsIf this trend continues by ~2020

1926 Great Miami = ~$500 billion1992 Andrew = ~200 billion2005 Katrina = ~320 billion

Damages will continue to riseWe may continue to underestimate loss potentials

Looking AheadLooking Ahead

ConclusionsConclusions

1.Focus on regional and local scales. 2.Global warming is not equivalent to

climate change. 3.The role of the radiative effect of the

anthropogenic increase of CO2 on global warming, and more generally, on climate variability and change has been overstated

4. Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting climate change and variability on multi- decadal time scales.

5. Attempts to significantly influence regional and local-scale climate based on controlling CO2 emissions alone is an inadequate policy for this purpose.

6. The assessment of the spectrum of threats to regional and local societal and environmental resources is a particularly effective framework to interact with policymakers.

4. Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting climate change and variability on multi- decadal time scales.

5. Attempts to significantly influence regional and local-scale climate based on controlling CO2 emissions alone is an inadequate policy for this purpose.

6. The assessment of the spectrum of threats to regional and local societal and environmental resources is a particularly effective framework to interact with policymakers.

Publications and Presentations available at:

Pielke Sr.’s Research Group http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke

Pielke Jr.’s Research Group http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/

Weblogshttp://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/

Presentation Prepared by Dallas Staley

Professional Research Assistant dallas@cires.colorado.edu

Email for copies of papers or presentations

Presentation Prepared by Dallas Staley

Professional Research Assistant dallas@cires.colorado.edu

Email for copies of papers or presentations