Predicting High-Impact Pests & Pathogens of Plants...biosecurity built on science Predicting...

biosecurity built on science

Predicting High-Impact Pests & Pathogens of Plants

Dr Kylie Ireland

Postdoctoral Fellow

Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre

Pierce’s disease

Sudden Oak Death

Asian Gypsy Moth


Peering into the past, to predict the future…

What is THE next big pest?

Where should we spend our $$$?

Aim Tool(s) Output

Analyse past patterns of arrival

Literature review, industry survey….

Database

Pathways? Pest traits?

Modelling – Bayesian…. Priority pathways & pests

Prioritisation process

End-user engagement, tool integration…

Framework


Context: Invasion Biology

Transport Establishment /

Abundance

Spread

IMPACT

1,000

introduced

10,000

imported

100

established

10

pests Tens

rule

Blackburn et al. (2011). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26(7): 333-339.

Chapple et al. (2012). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27(1): 57-64.


What makes a pest high impact?

Transport Establishment /

Abundance

Spread

IMPACT

Pathway Characteristics

Species Traits

Blackburn et al. (2011). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26(7): 333-339.

Chapple et al. (2012). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27(1): 57-64.


The Plan

Participant & end-user engagement – paramount!

Project scope

What is “Impact”?

Database development

Modelling – Predictors of High impact pests

- Pathway analysis

- Bayesian belief networks, hierarchical models….

Risk assessment framework

- End-user assessment & project delivery


PRAFHIS – Core Participants


Who are our end-users?

- Government (state & federal)

- Industry

- Researchers

Prioritisation tool/framework

- Flexible

- Transparent

- Easy to use

- Harmonising

The End-User’s perspective


Scope

Plant industries

- Value $$$

- Temperate (excluding tropics)

Exotic species only

Included: insect pests, nematodes, pathogens (viruses, bacteria, fungi, oomycetes)

Excluded: weeds, vertebrate pests, pests of bees.


What is Impact?

Develop common set of metrics

- Common language to improve cross-sectoral communication

- Applicable across a range of spatio-temporal scales

Integrate economic, environmental & socio-political values

Linking theory and management

- Epidemiology + Ecological theory = ?


Database Structure Pest name Crop/Industry

Impacted Impact Impact

Authority Impact Notes Common Name Organism

Type Pest Range AU/NZ

Trade Impact

Host Range

Albugo candida Brassicas H AusVeg 2007 100% loss recorded; Management with fungicide each season

white blister rust, white rust of crucifers

F VIC M

Alfalfa mosaic virus (Alfamovirus)

Pulses M?-H? DEDJTR 2013 Dry weight down 41%-76%, seed yield down 45%-98%, depends on variety; early infection no significant yield loss

AlMV V WA P

Alternaria brassicae Vegetables L AusVeg 2014 Carrot = low; Canola = low alternaria leaf spot

F O (P?)

Cryphonectria parasitica Chestnuts ? DEDJTR 2015 Eradicated? chestnut blight F VIC M

Erwinia amylovora Apples H Vanneste 2008 Asymptomatic colonisation prior to weather, rapid spread makes eradication difficult & market access issues

fire blight; fuego bacteriano; feuerbrand

B NZ Y O

Erysiphe heraclei Carrots M-H AusVeg 2014 Carrot data carrot powdery mildew

F O

Globodera rostochiensis Potato H Hodda 2009 Large change in management practices and investment in breeding

potato cyst nematode (PCN), golden eelworm

N VIC, WA, VIC

Y M

Phytophthora cinnamomi Avocado, Nursery & Garden

H Hardham 2005 Species loss, multi-industry, key threatening process

root rot O P

Potato virus Y (Potyvirus)

Potato H? GERDA 2015 Potential market access issue for WA seed potatoes, with current testing requirements for export

Potato virus Y V Y M

Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae

Kiwifruit H Greer 2012 Highly susceptible Gold, export demand impact, range of virulence

PSA, kiwifruit canker

B VIC M

Puccinia psidii sensu latu Forestry, Nursery & Garden

H Pegg et al 2013 Species loss, multi-industry Myrtle rust F NSW, QLD, VIC, TAS

P

Pythium tracheiphilum Lettuce M-H? GERDA 2015 Losses up to 30% have been recorded, particularly severe during wet seasons

lettuce stunt, wilt and leaf blight, lettuce blight

F WA, VIC P

Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (Begomovirus)

Tomato M? GERDA 2015 Stunting if early infeciton TYLCV V M

Ustilago maydis Grains L-M NSW DPI 2006 Industry-wide low impact, occassional large losses on individual properties

boil smut F AU O

Venturia inaequalis Apples M? DEDJTR 2015 Weather dependent, variety dependent, management costly

apple scab F WA (Y) M


Industry & Expert Engagement

5 High

5 Moderate

5 Low

Economic ($/yield)

Trade?

Environment?

Expert opinion & experience


How can YOU help?

Talk to me – expert opinion & fact checking

Share your ideas

- What defines high impact for your industry?

- What is a fair cross-industry measure of impact?

Fill out a survey

- 5 high, 5 moderate, 5 low

- Or dob in a good industry contact!

Stay in contact

- Join the PRAFHIS mailing list


Watch this space….

Milestone Due

Data collection

Workshop/End-user engagement Nov ’15 ()

Review & evaluate impact metrics Nov ’15 (…)

Database complete May ’16 (…)

Analysis

Pathway & pest characteristics analysis Nov ’16

Application

Risk assessment framework, including end-user assessment

Nov ’17

Final report Feb ’18


Thank you

For more information, or to join the PRAFHIS email list, please contact: [email protected]

Predicting High-Impact Pests & Pathogens of Plants...biosecurity built on science Predicting...

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